By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 7 August, 2015
With gold languishing near deep secular lows, its technicals look hopelessly broken. Sentiment is off-the-charts bearish, with traders universally convinced gold is doomed to spiral lower indefinitely. But gold’s weakness this year is very deceiving, as it wasn’t the product of global fundamental supply-and-demand forces. Extreme record shorting by American futures speculators spawned these artificial lows. Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital - 7 August, 2015
Over the past few years observing changes in Federal Reserve interest rate policy has been a little like watching paint dry or grass grow...only not as exciting. That's because the Fed has not changed its benchmark Fed Funds rate since 2008 (Federal Reserve, FOMC). So with nothing else to talk about, Fed observers have focused on the minute changes in language that are included in Fed Policy statements. Full Story
Silver is down 7.1% this year. Will this weakness persist? To find out, let’s look at the key factors in the silver market this year. Like gold, silver fell as the US dollar rose on the back of expectations that the Fed will hike rates. World demand for physical silver fell 4% in 2014, largely due to a record 19.5% drop in investment demand. Silver exchange-traded funds (ETFs) did not see big liquidations in 2014. ETF holdings grew by 1.4 million ounces and recorded their highest year-end level at 636 million ounces. Full Story
I recently had the privilege of being invited to participate and attend the second annual Sprott investment show in Vancouver last week. The purpose was to film interviews with some of the brilliant investors presenting and take advantage of all of intellectual capital in the room(s). My interviews are going to be released and distributed over the next couple of weeks, and I wanted to share some highlights from these interviews and the show and what to look forward to. Full Story
The first actual request for a Greek bailout came in April 2010, over five years ago. Since that time, Greece has received two formal bailouts, its credit ratings have been dropped to “junk,” and its GDP has collapsed over 20%: an amount roughly equal to the economic collapse experienced by Argentina during its 2000-2001 crisis. Full Story
As I write this, gold prices on the COMEX have sold off $10 and some “gold bugs” are worried and scared. This is normal. Trust central banks and governments to force gold prices far higher. Also, thousands of (right handed) golfers are currently slicing right on dog-leg left fairways. Golfers will find their balls, recover, and play again tomorrow. Gold prices will rally “tomorrow,” the sun will rise, governments will spend too much, and golfers will strive for the perfect swing. Full Story
Shock of all shocks, the IMF announced the Chinese yuan will not be admitted into the SDR until at least Sept. 2016. What exactly does this mean? I can tell you the gold community is so shell shocked and fearful at this point, it "must be bad for gold", right? Going back a couple of weeks, China announced they had accumulated another 600 tons or so of gold to the near panic of precious metals investors. This announcement would be used as another shot at taking price down because the Chinese "don't like gold as much as we thought". This was the prevailing sentiment. Full Story
The precious metals complex has attempted to stabilize over the past few weeks. Some markets have had more success than others. Gold has been able to hold $1080/oz while GDXJ has also held its recent low. The large cap indices (GDX, XAU, HUI) have grinded lower to new bear market lows this week. This leads us to the near term predicament. Is the sector basing before a rebound or merely consolidating before another steep leg down? Full Story
How eager are gold bugs to believe their ill fortune over the last four years is the result of sinister forces rather than a lack of prudence on their own part? The answer is easily seen in the writings of gold commentators over the last few months. References to organized manipulation and an official conspiracy to suppress the gold price abound among many analysts and their followers. Full Story
Go ahead, call me "crazy" and a "gold bug". Call me a "conspiracy theorist", if you like. However, doesn't it strike you the least bit odd that JP Morgan can book in 44 perfect and precise metric tonnes of gold but, at crunch time when that gold is demanded for delivery, 15 metric tonnes flow back out measured back to three spots to the right of the decimal point? Full Story
Unlike many analysts, Joe Mazumdar of Canaccord Genuity does not expect a substantially higher gold price any time soon. So what are hard-pressed gold investors to do? In this interview with The Gold Report, Mazumdar argues that they should seek high-grade resources—usually underground—in stable jurisdictions that benefit from the strong American dollar. Full Story
That the US government can get away with all this is analogous to the Haitian government arresting an American baseball player for violating one of their laws because the game is played with balls manufactured in Haiti. It’s likely the charges were brought because Russia was awarded the venue for 2018, and Washington wants to punish its designated enemy. Well, fear not. This is all just, in relative terms, a tempest in a toilet bowl. Much more serious things are brewing. Not just ISIS in what used to be Iraq and Syria. Or China in the Spratly Islands. Or the separatist provinces in the eastern Ukraine. Full Story
Last night I was moored in a tiny pocket in a part of Georgian Bay called Port Rawson Bay in about 10 feet of crystal-clear fresh water, with huge pines and cedars around the shoreline and rocks jutting 40 feet out of the water but without a cell phone or Internet signal, and that was scary. (Almost as scary as the legions of mosquitoes that blanketed the mesh screens that separated us from them, thanks to hockey socks stuffed into holes in the canvas and citronella candles that the little bastards detest.) Full Story
The signs are everywhere. We are seeing extreme “backwardation” in gold on the LBMA. Backwardation occurs when the spot price is higher than the future price for LBMA forward contracts. It means that buyers of gold are willing to pay more for gold for immediate delivery than pay a lower price to receive delivery in the future (30-day, 60-day, etc). It means that physical gold buyers do not trust the ability of the market to delivery physical gold in the future. Full Story
Shame is a powerful motivator. Especially in this business. When I was an ETF trader, if a client came in to trade a few hundred thousand shares of an ETF and the price moved abruptly against him right after the trade was consummated, the client would request a price improvement. This was to prevent embarrassment when the client (an execution trader) reported the fill to his boss (the portfolio manager). Full Story
By: John Mauldin and Dr. Luc De Keyser - 6 August, 2015
In this week’s Outside the Box we have a unique diagnosis of Europe’s ills from … a medical doctor. The author is Dr. Luc De Keyser, who currently serves as the chief medical information officer at Xperthis, the largest provider of hospital information systems solutions in Belgium. He has done pioneering work in multicenter clinical trials, medical ontologies, paleonutrition, and examining human conflict from an evolutionary perspective. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 6 August, 2015
A Bank of England policy study written in 1988 describes gold as "the ultimate store of value and medium of exchange" because it carries no counterparty risk but cautions against increasing the United Kingdom's gold reserves because doing so might be construed as a negative comment on the U.S. dollar and thus would risk giving "great offense to the United States." Full Story
China’s recent stock market gyrations have some analysts now calling China the biggest bubble in history. But those who write off China because of market volatility are missing a more important long-term trend of Chinese geopolitical and monetary ascendancy. That trend shows no signs of abating. China’s leaders have a clever strategy, and Western financial powers may someday wake up in shock when they realize what has occurred. Full Story
At recent lows around $1075 an ounce, gold has been trading at the lowest price level since February 2010. And, in recent days, the metal has been consolidating in a narrow range just under $1100. Now, it looks to me like gold is poised to break out one way or the other – but the question remains, “Which way?” Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 5 August, 2015
The belief that the Fed’s QE (Quantitative Easing) does not directly boost the US money supply remains popular, even though it is obviously wrong. This is remarkable. It’s even more remarkable, however, that this wrongheaded belief is dearly held by some analysts who are generally astute, a fact I was reminded of when reading a recent post by Doug Noland. Full Story
So the question is, if Japan’s primary industrial export sector (Machine Tools) is blowing out inventory at all costs (and again, in my multi-decade experience, when the builders blow ’em out they blow ’em out at a loss if needed with the only objective being ‘get this **** off the floor!) and the Yen is still weak, is the inflation starting to fail? Full Story
As we move deeper into the bankers’ end game, the bankers’ downward pressure on the price of gold is increasing. Gold’s present (low) price of $1,088 is an indication the bankers fear the next crisis could be their last. Full Story
I wrote a story about poor Clarence who retired in 1979, and even poorer Larry who retired last year. I created these characters to challenge the notion of calculating a real interest rate by subtracting inflation. The idea is that the decline of a currency can be measured by the rate of price increases. This price-centric view leads to the concept of purchasing power—the amount of stuff that a dollar can buy. It’s the flip side of prices. When prices rise, purchasing power falls. Full Story
On April 10, 2006, Mexican authorities searched through a DC-9 jet at the airport in Ciudad del Carmen. They found more than five tons of cocaine… valued at more than $100 million. If you’re like many Americans, you’re not surprised by a story like this. Not a year goes by without a few big media stories about Mexican drug cartels. However, you probably will be very surprised to learn who aided and abetted the drug operation: it was US banking giant Wachovia. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 5 August, 2015
There seems to be more evidence indicating the beginning stages of a global run on silver. How so? Well, ever since the middle of June, something significantly changed in the silver market. Physical silver investment demand skyrocketed. Why June? This was at the time Greece was voting on whether or not to remain in the European Union. Full Story
On July 14, I wrote about the danger developing in the transportation sector, and things are looking even worse today. Here’s what I mean: Look Out Below #1: Royal Dutch Shell reported its quarterly results last week—$3.4 billion, down from $5.1 billion for the same quarter a year ago—and warned that “today’s oil price downturn could last for several years.” Full Story
If you were to travel back in a time machine to just one year ago, how many market calls would you find for gold to break $1,000? I will give you a hint: It’s significantly less than the amount of bullish analysts left in the metals complex at this point in time. Full Story
We've been off the information grid for nearly a month now. Oh, we've still got electricity, the internet, the gas and water and sewer connexions, but a month ago the satellite went away at our command, so no more government and corporate news at 6 p.m. or the Sunday morning food-fights. Full Story
It is not often I write something as important as what follows. It was said after the last crash that "no one could've seen it coming". This was not so back then and is not so today. If you were looking for the truth in 2007, the average investor had ample warning from many sources warning of what was to come. The warnings are now much louder, far easier to hear and coming from some mainstream and even "official sources". Are you listening? Full Story
The September-October time frame is also “stock market crash season”. The worst US stock market crashes in history have occurred in the months of September and October. This year is a particularly dangerous one, because a Fed rate hike could occur just as the debt ceiling is being hotly debated by US congress! With these great fundamental dangers to America in place now, the idea that gold needs to be sold to avoid lower prices seems rather bizarre. Are analysts who are vehement about avoiding gold market drawdowns now… treating gold more as a gambling chip than an asset? Unfortunately, I think so. Full Story
For years now China has been heralded as an economic miracle that will drive the global economy towards growth and eventually eclipse the US as THE superpower in the world. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 4 August, 2015
In a blog post a couple of weeks ago I noted that it’s normal for large and fast price declines in the major financial markets to be accompanied by unusually-high trading volumes, meaning that it’s normal for large and fast price declines in the major financial markets to be accompanied by increased BUYING. I then wondered aloud as to why it is held up as evidence that something nefarious or strange is happening whenever an increase in gold buying accompanies a sharp decline in the gold price. Full Story
The politicians, media, and financial elite have assured us that inflation is low, stocks and bonds are safe, gold should be avoided, and fiat currencies (in opposition to over 1,000 years of history) are solid. I suspect that CR # 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 are relevant. Stack gold and silver. The cockroach strategy indicates the truth of gold and the illusion of fiat currencies. Full Story
The primary uptrend in common stocks began in March 2009, so this bull-market is now over 6 years old. The bull-market on Wall Street was unleased by the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented QE program and it is not a coincidence that its momentum waned around the same time America’s central bank stopped buying bonds. Full Story
After gold declined to a 5-year low, the message is that gold is doomed. Is it really true? In the past few weeks, the price of gold has suffered a significant decline, indicated by multiple technical signals and triggered by China's disappointing disclosure of its official gold reserves on July 17 and the following heavy selling in the Asian market. Gold bullion dropped by 6 percent in July, significantly deteriorating the market sentiment toward the yellow metal. Indeed, the sentiment indexes fell to record lows. Full Story
You’ve come to the right place if your eyes roll back whenever you hear pundits wonder aloud which month the Fed is finally going to raise interest rates. In these precincts, the answer to that question for years has been an emphatic “NEVER!!” Yes, we know, “never” is a long time; eventually we’re bound to be wrong. But until that day arrives, we can boast that no economist in America has predicted Fed behavior more accurately than we have. The reason we’ve gotten it right and the eggheads continue to get it wrong is that most of them view the Fed not merely respectfully, but reverently, taking every syllable of drivel that passes the Fed chairman’s lips as holy writ. Full Story
If there are words to characterize the precious metals markets for July, it would be “divergences” and “shortages.” There was heavy selling in the leveraged futures market and extraordinary buying demand and shortages in physical coins, rounds, and bars. Full Story
The leveraged gold futures derivatives market is knocking down the precious metal, yet in massive contrast, this drop has ignited a shopping frenzy according to gold coin dealers. I spoke with several friends and industry experts last week who confirmed the record sales numbers for the month. In fact, American Gold Eagle sales reached 161,500 ounces in July, the highest monthly figure since April 2013. What gives? Full Story
Whenever the mainstream media decides to undertake one of its periodic attacks on gold and gold ownership, it almost always begins by laying out gold's long history as a proven inflation hedge. It then proceeds to explain that inflation is not a problem at the present, and, as a result, no one with any common sense would bother to own it. This argument is a set-up – a pretext meant to confuse investor thinking and redirect interest away from the one investment vehicle likely to do them some good in these uncertain times. Full Story
We have arrived. The global statist nightmare is here. Orwell must be rolling over in his grave. Process associated with decentralization away from the West, and America, along with all corrupt and collusive centralized political bodies around the world, continues to accelerate, as increasing numbers become disenfranchised and frustrated with vulgarities associated with bureaucracy in general. Full Story
COMEX is the most important derivative exchange for silver volume by far. It remains the primary price determining mechanism. Tokyo and Shanghai are tiny in comparison. London is a dark , non-standard over-the-market, priced in US dollars, that keys from COMEX while being fully managed by the big banks. Full Story
The month of July has seen the most intense demand for physical gold and silver since April of 2013, setting numerous records for the year. On the heels of the spectacular drop in spot prices, buyers of physical metal have come out in droves. In fact, available supply is hardly able to keep up with the demand for immediate delivery of metals. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 3 August, 2015
The answer to the first question is ‘sort of’. The answer to the second question is no. The effects of having an institution with the power to manipulate interest rates and the money supply at whim are equally pernicious whether the institution is privately or publicly owned. However, if you strongly believe that the government can not only be trusted to ‘manage’ money and interest rates but is capable of doing so to the benefit of the economy, then please contact me immediately because I can do you a terrific deal on the purchase of the Eiffel Tower. Full Story
According to Gold Mining Union, Russia became the world’s second biggest producer of gold last year, extracting 288 tonnes. In Russia (where the ruble to the dollar has depreciated to more than 57 to $1, from 1.17 in 1993), the ruble price of gold has risen 15,030 percent during that time period. Gold holds great value to citizens of countries where the currency has shown historical bouts of severe volatility. Full Story
James Turk returns to the program with comments on Fed profligacy, which will eventually send the yellow metal into the stratosphere, already up 10% against the euro currency in 2015. Expect safe haven buying in the euro zone to intensify, making precious metals investments once again the asset class du jour. John Williams returns to Goldseek.com Radio with dire thoughts on the veracity of the official economic figures. The domestic economy has not recovered - virtually every economic indicator remains stagnant since 2009. Economist Martin Armstrong of Armstrong Economics is the subject of a new controversial documentary The Forecaster. Our guest compares the economic carnage in the EU to the fallout in Detroit, a once vibrant showcase of capitalism. Full Story
The world is awash with "promises". Nearly everything we think of as having "value" is because of a promise behind it. A few examples; your bank accounts, retirement funds, bonds and even the dollar bills in your pocket. Your bank account for example, once you deposit the money it is no longer yours. You can argue this if you wish but we now know this is true for sure after recent "bail in" legislations passed throughout the west. Full Story
You cannot understand gold if you think it goes up and down, that the dollar is money and therefore the measure of all things, including gold. This is a very bold statement, so let’s look a little closer. Mainstream articles often ask the question if gold is a good inflation hedge, which means: does gold go up as much as consumer prices. You know what comes next. They trot out a chart of the Consumer Price Index with the price of gold overlaid on it. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 2 August, 2015
In just one day, a big chunk of JP Morgan’s gold was withdrawn from the COMEX. It’s been a while since we have seen such a large single withdrawal. According to the CME Group’s Friday Warehouse Depository gold stocks, a whopping 200,752 ounces of gold were removed from JP Morgan’s Eligible category. Full Story
Let me remind everyone that intermediate cycle lows (ICL), and especially yearly cycle lows in the metals are always hard to hold onto. Even if you catch the exact bottom, they usually resist for a week or more and try to shake everyone off. The metals bottom differently than the stock market. When stocks form an ICL they rocket launch straight up. Traders get instant gratification and a market that quickly moves away from their stop. Full Story
In this update on the broad market S&P500 index we are going to look at no less than 5 charts for it, covering different timeframes, the reason for this is that there are different points to make on each of these charts. Before looking at the charts for the S&P500 index we are going to review first a range of charts, including the latest charts for Margin Debt and NYSE available cash. These charts provide the direst warning imaginable of impending trouble. Full Story
In my opinion, the surest method for ascertaining what the sentiment is towards overall global economic growth prospects is the commodity sector performance. When sentiment is upbeat towards global growth, commodities tend to be in a strong uptrend on the charts. The reverse is true when prospects turn sour; commodities have a general tendency to sell off. Full Story
At this point, there's really no reason to discuss the "how" and the mechanics of the deliberate, manipulative Globex smash of Sunday, July 19. However, it might be worth considering the aftermath as we look for reasons "why". As we consider "why", the first and foremost reason was price and chart manipulation. Gold had bottomed at $1130 on November 7, 2014 and had, over the next eight months, found stout support near that level. Full Story
Much of the world is focused on what is happening in Greece and Europe. A lot of people are paying attention to the Middle East and geopolitics. These are significant concerns, for sure; but what has been happening in China the past few months has more far-reaching global investment implications than Europe or the Middle East do. Most people are aware of the amazing run-up in the Shanghai stock index and the recent “crash.” The government intervened and for a time has halted the rapid drop in the markets. Full Story
The US Mint is not a very good liar. They are manipulating their sales data to stifle silver investor sentiment. My fight with the US Mint goes back 7 years. I wrote them in June 2008 to point out that stopping production of the US Silver Eagles was AGAINST THE LAW because the law required them to produce SAE's "in quantities sufficient to meet public demand." Since that time, and through my continual pestering over the years, they CHANGED THE LAW to make the US Treasury Secretary the one who decides if the coins are being produced to meet demand and only he has the power to stop or limit production. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 2 August, 2015
With the continued uncertainty in the global financial system, investors purchased record Gold and Silver Eagles. Sales of Gold and Silver Eagles remained subdued in the first five months of the year…. that is, until the situation of a possible Greek exit of the European Union stirred up a huge surge in buying in June. Full Story
As most of you know, I used to be a clerk on the floor of the old P. Coast options exchange in San Francisco. What a place. I could tell stories about that floor for weeks. The craziest things you ever heard. But let’s keep it professional. The funny thing about a trading floor like the PCX (or the NYMEX, or the CME) is that you have winners and losers. You have big winners and big losers. You have people who blow themselves up. You have people who blow themselves up so spectacularly, they take a chunk out of their clearing firm. Full Story
Markets found lows last week and are moving back to the top of their ranges for now but the big question remains, can they breakout with heavy volume? I still think we won’t see a major breakout until the fall but I’ve been wrong before. As for the metals, gold found a low and is now trading in a range as it sets up for another leg lower, most likely to finally test the $1,000 level. Full Story
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