Once again the smell of NAPALM is in the air. Reversals in liquidity and Massive markets reaction to PUNY emerging market outflows PROBABLY signals the next waves of insolvencies are STRIKING as I write this. Most main stream economists, banksters, brokers, governments and public servants are calling for continued recovery in developed world economies; to me it APPEARS we just saw the PEAK. Full Story
This is another one of those “where do I start?” mornings; as frankly, my poor little brain is being stretched in multiple directions by the forces of lunacy. It would be easy to commence with last night’s news that none other than Blythe Masters – head of JP Morgan’s commodities division, and chief nemesis of truth-seeking, free market advocates the world round – has been asked to join the CFTC in an advisory role. Talk about asking the fox to guard the henhouse! Full Story
One of the biggest problems for the stock market entering 2014 was the near unanimous belief on Wall Street that stock prices would only go higher this year. Indeed, you had to look a long way to find even a hint of bearishness at the start of the year. Full Story
By: Neeraj Chaudhary, Investment Consultant in Los Angeles for Euro Pacific Capital - 7 February, 2014
At the end of 2013 Wall Street appeared to be convinced that the markets were enjoying the best of all possible worlds. In an interview with CNBC on Dec. 31 famed finance professor Jeremy Siegel stated that stocks would build on the great gains of 2013 with an additional 27% increase this year. So far 2014 hasn't gone according to script. In contrast to the prevailing optimism I maintain a high degree of skepticism regarding the current rally in U.S. stocks. But opinions are cheap. To back up my gut feeling, here are six very diverse indicators that suggest U.S. stocks are overvalued. Full Story
The gold and silver stocks have rebounded nicely but have consolidated in recent weeks. Where is this going and how do we know? Well, a few weeks ago we publicly said that a major bottom is in. Thus, we believe the trend will go higher. Beyond belief, we need real confirmation that the sector will continue higher. Enter moving average analysis. By using a few simple moving averages we can better understand the current context and get confirmation that the sector will continue to move higher. GDX, GDXJ and SIL could soon test moving averages which have been resistance for the past 13 months. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 7 February, 2014
Selling has finally returned to the US stock markets, short-circuiting their year-old levitation. This new downside action of the last couple weeks looks very different from anything witnessed in 2013. Is it just another minor and short-lived pullback, the vanguard of a full-blown correction, or the dawn of a new cyclical bear market? The prudent strategy for traders varies greatly with this selloff’s likely magnitude. Full Story
Though we do not know for sure whether the ongoing Crisis is “concerted & engineered”, that is certainly one reasonable interpretation. We do know that there is precedent for Mega-Bank “Bail-ins” (i.e. confiscation) of Depository Accounts (cf. Cyprus and Poland) and Super-priority payments to Mega-Banks, (cf. MFGlobal) in the event of another Financial Crisis, as we and others, especially the Redoubtable Attorney and Analyst Ellen Brown, have noted. Full Story
By: Richard (Rick) Mills, Ahead of the herd - 7 February, 2014
Ahead of the Herd readers know I believe gold’s price is being driven by rising, or falling, real interest rates. Real interest rates are the level of annual yield paid to savers and investors over and above the pace of inflation. PIMCO makes a convincing case that the number one factor influencing the price of gold is the changes in real yield on 10 year US Treasuries. Full Story
It's been two and a half years since the bank-coordinated reversal of the bull market in gold and silver began on September 7, 2011, the day after gold touched an intraday high of $ 1923.70 . Since then, there have been repeated coordinated operations that have seen gold taken down to the $1,100 level. But now, the gold price is insistently yearning upward through its technically significant $1,260 level, despite a mis-regulated futures market that annually supplies imaginary gold on a virtually unlimited basis to the sell side in the form of future sales of gold that are rarely if ever settled with physical gold. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 7 February, 2014
Here's something regarding yesterday's German Press Agency report quoting the Bundesbank as saying that small shipments repatriating Germany's gold from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York are "preferred for security reasons" - a report that included an assertion attributed to the German newspaper Handelsblatt that "insurers will cover gold shipments only by air, not by ship, and will not insure shipments of more than 1 tonne at a time." Full Story
When Lehman collapsed in 2008, the world stopped while the Fed implemented its plan to rescue America’s banks and the world’s financial system. This was achieved by making unlimited money available to the banks, and the stimulus has continued subsequently through quantitative easing. The post-Lehman era has therefore been one of unprecedented and coincidental expansion of narrowly defined money supply in all five major currencies, the fifth being the Chinese renminbi which has seen additional expansion of bank credit as well. Full Story
The errors of financial policy, led by the world's central banks have once again created the makings of a massive crisis. Blind to risk, and completely captured by politics and ideology, it is as if the Federal Reserve and it's counterparts have been awarded a total mandate. All of the misplaced and mis priced risk is poised to flood toward precious metals. Full Story
In the past years, the Federal Reserve dropped many inflationary bombs on the markets. Inflationary in the purely monetary sense by supplying money in almost ridiculous amounts, especially base money figures. During this process some commentators believed that the dollar would soon evaporate, that investors will run away in favor of the euro (like the EBC had not been printing euros for their banks), or maybe in favor of the yen (like the Japanese central bank was not that inflationary), or who knows maybe even the yuan. Full Story
By: Gary Dorsch, Editor, Global Money Trends - 6 February, 2014
A sharp sell-off in the global stock markets so far this year has left many small investors a bit puzzled and panicky, and unsure how to react. Retail investors in the US, who watched the from the sidelines in a state of disbelief, as the “Least Loved” Bull market on Wall Street, continued to climb to new all-time highs, - finally decided to throw in the towel in the second half of 2013, and jumped aboard the Bullish bandwagon. The late converts plowed $175-billion of their savings into US-equity funds, helping to push the S&P-500 Index to an all-time high at the 1,850-level. They gave little thought that maybe, the “Least Loved” Bull had climbed “too far and too fast” after gaining +175% from the Great Recession low. Full Story
Bear markets inevitably follow bull markets. The question that everyone usually has is how long can a bull market last and how would one know when the bear market is getting underway. The current stock market bull market is entering its fifth year if one counts it as beginning in March 2009. The current bull market followed one of the worst bear markets in history when the Dow Jones Industrials (DJI) lost 53.8%. It was an historic bear market, becoming the second worst bear market in history surpassed only by the 1929-1932 bear that saw the DJI lose 86%. Grant you the 2000-2002 NASDAQ was trimmed by 76.5% instantly putting it in the same league as the 1929-1932 DJI bear. Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Precious Metals - 6 February, 2014
Gold is the simplest of financial assets - you either own it or you don't. Yet, at the same time, gold is also among the most private of assets. Once an individual locks his or her safe, that gold effectively disappears from the market at large. Unlike bank deposits or stocks, there is no way to tally the total amount of gold held by individual investors. Full Story
Social taboos have dropped left and right since I was a young man raising a family, but one is unlikely to disappear any time soon: holding too much personal debt. But debt need not be a personal tragedy nor a badge of shame. For some, it is simply a practical problem with practical solutions. For others, however, it isn't even the real problem. Full Story
ANDREW DICKSON WHITE ENDS HIS CLASSIC HISTORICAL ESSAY on hyperinflation, “Fiat Money Inflation in France,” with one of the more famous lines in economic literature: “There is a lesson in all this which it behooves every thinking man to ponder.” The lesson that there is a connection between government over-issuance of paper money, inflation and the destruction of middle-class savings has been routinely ignored in the modern era. So much so, that enlightened savers the world over wonder if public officials will ever learn it. Full Story
India is the world's largest market for silver, and it doubled the amount of silver it imported last year. Why? That's a complicated question, but here are seven factors that affect Indian demand for silver. Full Story
By: The Gold Report and Brent Cook - 5 February, 2014
If now is the time to accumulate deeply discounted companies with strong fundamentals in advance of a hot junior market in 2015, how can an investor tell if a company is a black hole or a shining star? Exploration Insights Publisher Brent Cook shines a light on the all-important due diligence process in this interview with The Gold Report. Full Story
Our Blog started to recommend short positions on select stock market sectors starting on Jan 16 through Jan 23, because we believed that a shift was taking place that would reverse existing trends that have been in place since 2011, and possibly even 2009. Our premise finally starting being acknowledged by a few at the beginning of February, although a lot of analysts are still suggesting the bull market will continue after a required period of correction. We beg to differ and we will use the three popular Dow charts – Industrials, Transports and Utilities – to demonstrate our thoughts on this matter. Full Story
The following is an excerpt from famous contrarian speculator and libertarian freethinker Doug Casey's latest book, Right on the Money. The interview with Casey Research Chief Metals & Mining Analyst Louis James took place on September 30, 2009, when gold stocks were clearly rebounding from their post-crash lows. Doug's thoughts are just as timely and true today as they were then, presenting a perfect picture of this most volatile and most rewarding of sectors... Full Story
Markets tend to have no set rules that always work. Especially on shorter term time frames. But as you stretch the time frame out to the longer term general guidelines start to form for how markets behave. This includes concepts such as bear markets following bull markets, and bull markets following bear markets. Periods of overvaluation in stocks tend to be followed by periods of undervaluation. And relationships between asset classes tend to switch as one asset class becomes extremely overvalued or undervalued against another. The market hates extremes so by definition trends that reach extremes tend to eventually reverse. Full Story
Honestly, did anyone think this would really work? I know that the connected elites loved it because the whole process allowed them to hand off their garbage investments to the public while leveraging up to acquire more assets via the Fed’s cheap money… but what about those who DON’T work for a top 20 global financial institutions? Did anyone actually believe this would work? Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 4 February, 2014
At the invitation of gold's local friends, your secretary/treasurer is visiting Suriname, the former Dutch Guyana, a gold-mining country in South America, to explain and document the gold price suppression scheme of Western central banks and to urge the country to mobilize against it. Coincidentally, this week the operators of the two biggest gold mines in Suriname, Iamgold and Newmont Mining, announced that because of low prices they are postponing their plans to increase employment here. Full Story
Global stock markets are tumbling. While mainstream media personnel discuss a “short and healthy correction”, many value-oriented investors believe that most stock markets are entering a significant bear market. I’ve highlighted the 14,5,5 Stochastics series, which I use exclusively on this key quarterly bars chart of the Dow. It’s flashing a gigantic sell signal. Note the declining volume that has occurred since 2011. For a closer look at that volume, please click here now. This monthly chart shows that since the fall of 2011, the growth of the money supply has not attracted sizable investment into the stock market. Full Story
In years past, if a person spent years working for a company, and was promised a pension plan, they could ease into retirement, knowing they would be secure and no longer have to worry about money. Nowadays, folks who trust to their pensions can end up with a fraction of what they were promised as companies face slashing pensions or going bankrupt. This may sound bleak, but a little action now will lead to a secure retirement in the future. Read on to learn more about the current state of affairs… and how to improve your own future situation. Full Story
So, thank you, dear Mr. President, because your loss is my gain. Oh, come on now, no need to hide your face in shame. After all, this is not the first time government stupidity has set up an incredible opportunity to make a fortune—you're in very good company. Thanks to your stunning incompetence, I wouldn't be surprised if you handed me and my Casey Energy Report subscribers a double or triple on our investments. So I close my letter with the warmest wishes for the rest of your presidency. May you never change. Full Story
In Part I, we discussed the concept of arbitrage. We showed why defining it as a risk-free investment that earns more than the risk-free rate of interest is invalid. There is no such thing as a risk-free investment, and in any case, economics must be focused on the acting man rather than theoretical constructs. We validated that arbitrage arises because the market is constantly offering incentives to the acting man in the form of spreads. Arbitrage is the act of straddling a spread. Arbitrage will tend to compress a spread. The spread will narrow, though not to zero because no one has any incentive to make it zero. Full Story
It's been my opinion now for a the last year that the bull market that started in March of 2009 at 666 on the S&P would come to an end either in late 2013, or early 2014. I'm confident that will be the case, but based on the cyclical pattern of the current decline I believe we still have one last leg up before this bull comes to an end. I think the intermediate decline now in progress is going to create the conditions for a final manic melt up phase over the next 2-3 months to complete this huge parabolic structure that the Fed has constructed with 5 years of QE and 0% interest rates. Full Story
By: Frank Holmes, U.S. Global Investors - 4 February, 2014
Comex gold stocks eligible for delivery are at all-time lows, continuing to fall rapidly. J.P. Morgan withdrew a massive 321,500 ounces from its vaults last week, the largest withdrawal of physical gold ever, according to Lawrence Williams of Mineweb. Comex’s last report shows that delivery-eligible inventories are currently sitting at a very modest 70,000 ounces, or 2.2 tonnes. At the rate of current outflows, there will be no physical gold left to back the paper contracts. Full Story
By: Brian Sylvester, The Gold Report - 4 February, 2014
Cosmos Chiu, executive director of precious metals equity research at CIBC World Markets, doesn't just stick to mining companies in North America. About one-third of gold comes from Africa, Chiu says in this interview with The Gold Report, so he likes to dedicate a similar amount of coverage to companies there. But knowing what to look for in intriguing districts around the world is what sets Chiu apart—that and his decidedly bullish forecast for the gold price. Full Story
Gold has been in a downturn for more than two years now, resulting in the lowest investor sentiment in many years. Hardcore goldbugs find no explanation in the big-picture financial numbers of government deficits and money creation, which should be supportive to gold. I have an explanation for why gold has been down—and why that is about to reverse itself. I'm convinced that now is the best time to invest in gold again. Full Story
For gold investors, the sentiments expressed in Jeff Lynn’s immortal song Mr. Blue Sky (lyrics above) seem all to appropriate right now considering the slamming you have taken over the past two-years – where did we go wrong – where did we go wrong indeed? Because it seems like an eternity since precious metals investors have seen even the dreariest shades of blue in the sky. Gold was down 28-percent last year, with silver worse at 30-percent. But the real pain was felt in the stocks, with the GDX down more than 50-percent, and juniors down some 90-percent in many cases. 2013 was a bloodbath for precious metals investors, never mind just a rainy day. Full Story
Somewhere along the road from the 2000 bottom in gold stocks to the 2008 flame out of inflationary hysteria, the gold stock sector went from counter cyclical first mover to ‘inflation trade’ also ran. Gold stocks put in a secular bear market bottom in 2000 just as the US and many global economies were topping out. Full Story
The U.S. stock market has been moving higher for a long time – largely driven by the Fed’s easy money policy, zero interest rate policy, Quantitative Easing, and lots of hype. An important high probably occurred in December. Look out below! There is potentially a long way to fall. Full Story
Before we get into the charts I have seen several questions on what type of trader is Rambus. There are basically three types of traders. The short term, the long term and the intermediate term. I’m an intermediate trader that looks for the impulse move when a consolidation, top or bottom is confirmed. It’s those moves where you can make the most money in the shortest period of time. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 3 February, 2014
Despite the poor start to 2014, there is still room to debate whether U.S. stocks have entered a bear market. My own forecast, made several months ago, calls for a final Dow run-up to 17622. I’d need to revisit that scenario, however, if January’s weakness gathers force in the weeks ahead. One thing’s for certain: If a bear market has already begun, the jig is up for the Fed’s crackpot scheme to borrow our way back to prosperity. It will instead be Katie-bar-the-door-time – and deflation, here we come! Japan will at last have company – not just from the U.S. and Europe, but from China, whose bubble-blowing days would not survive even a month of U.S. recession piled atop the already suffocating weight of Europe’s deepening deflation. Full Story
The head of Euro Pacific Capital runs Euro Pacific Gold Fund (EPGFX) currently the top performing fund out of 73 competitors, according to Morningstar. He says that gold stocks have bottomed and Indian gold import restrictions will be removed this year helping to make gold the trade of 2014. Ten years after offering prescient advise to readers, to sell real estate and buy gold in The Coming Collapse of the Dollar, in his new book, The Money Bubble, he warns investors to eliminate debt obligations in preparation for an impending global currency crisis. He and co-author John Rubino make the case for much higher precious metals prices, setting lofty targets: $10,000 gold and $100 silver. Full Story
We sold our Precious Metals sector holdings on Monday 27th January, which we had bought just a few weeks earlier, in order to sidestep a possible reaction. The reason for this was that both gold and silver had arrived at important trendline resistance and some of our juniors had become critically overbought after strong gains. Were we correct to sell at that point, in view of the building major uptrend across the sector? Full Story
By: John Mauldin, Chairman, Mauldin Economics - 2 February, 2014
Those of us who have attained a certain age can remember being bombarded by commercials in which we were asked "Is it live or is it Memorex?" The thrust of the ad was that it didn't make any difference, that the tape recording was just as good as being there to watch that TV show live. Video recording technology was in its infancy, and the ability to play a movie whenever you wanted was really cool. Imagine being able to set a video recorder to record a TV show while you were away! … As long as you had somebody in the house young enough to be able to program the recorder to do it, it was great technology. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 2 February, 2014
The US will eventually experience hyperinflation, but "eventually" could be long after we are all dead. Therefore, rather than making the case that hyperinflation will eventually happen, it is more useful to ask the question: What is the probability of hyperinflation happening in the US within the next two years? We have asked that question every year for more than ten years, and up until now the answer has always been: So low as to not be worth worrying about. We are now asking the question again. Full Story
Before anyone gets all bent out of shape, this is NOT going to be a political essay. To restate my position on the issue of politics, I couldn’t care less what group or party anyone belongs to, but rather, about how they do the job they were entrusted with doing. In my lifetime we’ve had but a few lawmakers who truly did their jobs with the trust and stewardship of their constituents in mind. That group grows fewer as we egress from the former America into this brave new world of offshoring, economic microcephalism, and blatant malfeasance. Full Story
So far, January 2014 has become a part of the failed rally for gold and silver that was so widely expected in 2013. That has not stopped the renewed enthusiasm for 2014 being THE year for the long awaited rally-to-the-sky. Anyone who reads our commentaries on a regular basis knows that the most reliable source for what the market will do comes from the market itself. Full Story
Thanks to the Fed’s tapering, a wider public is becoming aware of currency instability in diverse economies, from Turkey to Argentina, and India to Indonesia. Indeed, on Tuesday night Turkey raised overnight interest rates by a whopping 4.5% to 12% in an attempt to stop a run on the lira. Full Story
Markets continued to weaken most of the week and we were waiting for a nice bounce all week that finally came Thursday and there were some very great day-trading chances as a result. It’s not a market to take a long view in and I am not holding any positions overnight in at the moment since we often gap up or down and that just means risk is on. For now it seems day-trading only as a general rule and there aren’t many exceptions to this. Full Story
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