By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 7 December, 2012
With the rancorous fiscal-cliff negotiations dominating newsflow, the markets are rightfully on edge. Will a deal be reached as time relentlessly dwindles, or not? How the fiscal cliff is resolved has massive implications for the US economy and markets in 2013 and beyond. But provocatively, the fiscal cliff is a minor sideshow in the real crisis. The United States of America is drowning under federal debt. Full Story
In an interview with Louis James, Doug Casey expounds on the hazards of making a career of an element of one's identity, in a remembrance of an Indian libertarian friend. Full Story
By: The Gold Report and Michael Kosowan - 7 December, 2012
An investment executive at Sprott Global Resource Investments Ltd., Michael Kosowan is working by three sayings these days: "Well bought is half sold," "Small is beautiful" and "Necessity is the mother of invention." In this Gold Report interview, Kosowan talks about the challenges mining companies face and shares some jurisdictions that offer outsized returns. Full Story
TODAY'S chatter in the trading rooms says some gold owners fear a punitive US tax hike in New Year 2013, with the Obama government targeting precious-metal investors. Hence this month's sell-off (or so the tittle-tattle says) – akin to the move by Japanese households to sell gold in late 2011 ahead of new reporting rules for precious-metals dealers. Full Story
Summing up, the situation for the USD Index looks bearish, and this has bullish implications for the precious metals. Since no response was seen this week in gold and silver prices, however, an immediate rally may not be seen based on the above charts. The medium-term picture for gold appears very favorable. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 7 December, 2012
These are, indeed, times that try men's souls. To such a profound revelation, some would perhaps delightedly say "Indeed, Mogambo!" Perhaps you, too, are inclined to say "Well said, Mogambo! Thou art truly the greatest of writers, who can, with a mere fillip of prose or punctuation, turn a such simple phrase into immortal, graceful poetry, and anybody who criticizes you is an idiot and a jealous, loudmouth, know-nothing halfwit who wouldn't know true writing talent if it came up to them and took a whiz on their shoes!" Full Story
I have to admit, I never saw the gold stocks correcting this much. After making a textbook double bottom and registering very strong momentum readings, I expected a relatively tame October correction to be followed by another leg higher into year end. I thought GDX would bottom at $49. Obviously I was wrong on all counts. It’s difficult to make predictions when they are about the future. Kidding aside, forecasts are only a guide or a potential roadmap. Full Story
The typical technical analysis based stock-slinging newsletter is written by a contrarian who denies market manipulation and often ridicules those who attempt to discuss it seriously and rationally. Furthermore, the degree of denial and hostility faced by proponents of market manipulation theories is usually directly proportional to the amount of evidence actually underpinning the issue. Full Story
Gold investors can either decide to try to second guess the bullion banks or sit tight, and in the absence of any special inside knowledge that seems the best advice. Mr. Sinclair has the bullion banks rumbled and will doubtless be proven correct in his judgement yet again. Cost push currency inflation is going to take gold prices much higher. Full Story
Overlooked amongst all of the talk about the “fiscal cliff” is the looming debt ceiling. While the collision course to come to an agreement on the “fiscal cliff” would have a negative impact on the US (and world) economy, failure to come to an agreement to raise the debt ceiling could in theory push the US into bankruptcy. Full Story
Since it became apparent that there was not going to be a compromise forthcoming soon between the President and the House of Representatives, I’ve been trying to figure out the impact that has on gold. I think I understand it, which is the reason for this reports “Austerity” headline. Full Story
If you’re a market-watcher who has grown as bored with December’s tedious ups-and-downs as we have, here’s a black magic forecast for the Dow Industrials that you can track in real time to help make the time pass. Besides the entertainment value of watching this prediction play out, you’ll also be able to trade it if you desire. The predicted rally is nothing spectacular — just a modest, 185.58-point upthrust in Indoos. How could we be so brashly certain that the impending surge will be exactly 185.58 points? Full Story
It was perfectly predictable! As soon as the election was over, all the media coverage would be on the US Fiscal Cliff. Why it wasn't even raised by either party during the election campaigns or dragged into the coverage by the media is another discussion. The same reasons it was put off untill after the election, not discussed during the election, are the same excuses that make how it will be resolved, also perfectly predictable. Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Precious Metals - 6 December, 2012
Turn on the TV and this is what you'll hear: The US budget is heading for a fiscal cliff. If a deal isn't reaching in Congress by the end of this year, a combination of automatic tax hikes and budget cuts will sink America into economic depression. There is no escape. Full Story
The short sell at the opening bell last week had the desired effect on prices, as the $1,730 level was breached where it triggered stops. The reason behind the trade is a matter of speculation with no clear motive. One source believed the selling was a bet that the U.S. “fiscal cliff” will be averted and that both sides of the Congressional isle will be able to reconcile their differences long enough to meet the upcoming deadline for the expiration of the Bush tax cuts. Full Story
The long-term T bond could be a great short even if it remains within its secular uptrend (interest rates in a secular downtrend) because as the big picture monthly chart of the ‘Continuum’ shows, there is a long way up to the 100 month EMA where another theoretical red arrow would be painted on long-term interest rates. Full Story
If we can keep our heads while others are losing theirs and make sound decisions based on numbers, analysis, and comparison ratios to other markets, we can make intelligent and informed buy and sell decisions. For now, it makes sense to me to hold gold and silver and to carefully evaluate everything else. Massive and supposedly unexpected changes can occur with surprising rapidity. Full Story
Official Data Purveyors would have you believe that U.S. inflation is “contained,” GDP is growing healthily, and Sovereign Debt is sustainable. Not true! The U.S. for example is already Threshold Hyperinflationary at 9.82% and GDP growth is a negative 2.10% and the net present value of downstream Federal government obligations is nearly $90 trillion. Full Story
China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced that it expected Gold consumption in the country would be running at more than double national gold production by the end of 2015, more than double Chinese gold consumption forecast for 2012. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 5 December, 2012
In 2009 the signatories of the Central Bank gold Agreement effectively stopped selling gold. This was just after signing the third Central Bank Gold Agreement which lasts until September 26th 2014. Why? Full Story
The verdict is in and the man-made disaster that is creeping socialism just got a green light in the world’s largest economy! The SOMETHING for Nothing society known formally as the United States of America and controlled by what Vladimir Lenin called USEFUL IDIOTS (products of centrally controlled public schools taught the VIRTUES of socialism as beneficial) have now elevated their chosen REPRESENTATIVES as slave masters (at the point of a government GUN) to the last vestiges of the private sector that still produce more than they consume. Full Story
By: The Gold Report and Adrian Day - 5 December, 2012
Debt, not the fiscal cliff, is what concerns Jason Hamlin, publisher of the Gold Stock Bull newsletter, and if his prediction of a split in the EU comes to pass, it will bolster the case for gold equities. He shares his preference for royalty streamers and prospect generators in the gold space and explains his attraction to graphite in this Gold Report interview. Full Story
A number of market analysts and gold-industry insiders are warning about a possible shortage of gold supply. Barrick CEO Jamie Sokalsky recently stated that since gold production is inelastic (i.e., insensitive to price changes) there will be a very limited increase in supply from gold producers, even during sharp increases in the gold price. Rick Rule, a billionaire and avid gold investor, pointed out that while we're seeing spectacular demand, a number of issues will make supply very tight in the future, especially among retailers. Full Story
As election euphoria settles and the "fiscal cliff" approaches, what are the implications for the dollar? Even as federal deficits may be unsustainable, stocks and bonds are up, and while the dollar may have resumed its long-term downward trend, the greenback has hardly fallen off a cliff. We look at how different tax policies might affect the U.S. dollar. Full Story
The nominal gold price has done nothing unusual, even after yesterday’s hard decline to the 35 week exponential moving average. If it breaks through that level, then a bearish sign will be in place and the next stop would likely be the noted support zone in the low 1600′s. Full Story
Gold buying by the global central banks will hit a new high this year of more than 500 tons up from 465 tons in 2011, according to data compiled by the World Gold Council. Only yesterday the Bank of Korea announced that its gold reserves rose by 14 metric tons, a 20 per cent jump in total holdings to 84 tons. Full Story
I do not recommend owning a paper gold-based ETF because frankly the custodial risk is high (that is, there’s no telling if the Gold is even there or who would get it if the ETF is liquidated). In comparison, physical bullion, stored outside a bank, is literally money in hand. You know where it is and you can find out what it’s worth. Compare that to a Gold ETF in which you’re hoping that the bank actually has the Gold and that it could actually send it to you if you requested (fat chance). Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 5 December, 2012
The main reason to be bullish on the US$ gold price is that the ignoramuses at the upper echelons of the Fed truly believe that they can help the US economy by conjuring money out of nothing. The weaker the economy becomes the more money they will create, and the more money they create the weaker the economy will become. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman and Wayne Siggard - 5 December, 2012
All the government subsidies in the world will not revive the construction industry - only demand from increasing wealth will. The guest commentary below offers a vivid picture of the economic and regulatory factors weighing on homebuilders these days. The author is Wayne Siggard, who builds mansions for the super-rich. A UCLA law graduate, Wayne worked for Bechtel Financing Services and was self-employed as an investment banker doing private placements in oil and gas and alternative energy project financing. Full Story
I have been checking on the changes that have taken place to the gold banking business carried out by the Bank for International Settlements since March 2009 and the bank's use of gold derivatives (essentially all are gold swaps), which have grown from zero as of March 31, 2009. All the data in the table below is sourced from BIS annual reports and from the bank's 2012 interim report published in early November. Full Story
Until gold rises above $1800, or declines to $1540, I would not place much risk capital into the gold market, regardless of whether you own a lot of gold, or only a little bit of it. There is light support for gold at $1707, $1675, $1650, $1635, and $1600, so it is reasonable to place tiny bets on gold and related items, in each of those areas. Full Story
By: John Browne, Senior Economic Consultant at Euro Pacific Capital - 4 December, 2012
Gold appears to be headed for an impressive price appreciation for the second half of 2012. Since the beginning of July, gold is up almost 10 over the same time frame. What is noteworthy here is that in recent months, fears of a worldwide recession have increased markedly. It used to be considered axiomatic that recession created adverse conditions for commodities (a reality that has helped push down the price of crude oil thus far in 2012). How then can we understand the movement in gold? Full Story
On numerous occasions we have gone back in our commentaries to the year 1971 and U.S. President Richard Nixon’s decision to cut off the ties between the greenback and gold. Today, we revisit the topic once more and check what kind of implications it has for the price of the yellow metal. Full Story
My question: would it be possible to talk with you as the person who's taking care of the press at Austria's central bank about this topic -- http://www.gata.org/node/11961 -- during next week via telephone in an English interview that would be published at GATA's Internet site? Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital - 3 December, 2012
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner made news last week by proposing to transfer the Congressional prerogative to raise the debt ceiling to the President. The change would essentially do away with the meaningless debt ceiling debates that have become ritual kabuki in Washington over the past few generations. Most Republicans have dismissed the proposal as a blatant executive power grab that will significantly weaken both the Congress and the minority party. Full Story
By: The Gold Report and Rick Mills - 3 December, 2012
Rick Mills isn't looking for huge producers with so much overhead that they can't profitably mine an ounce of gold. Instead, Mills, the publisher, editor and president of Aheadoftheherd.com, seeks out the smaller mines with low capital costs. That's where the money will be made in the next two years, he tells The Gold Report. Full Story
It takes a devastating catastrophe like Sandy to mark before and after times. New Yorkers, who to this point have done a miraculous job of insulating themselves from the ravages of a collapsing economy (while ironically largely causing it), will look back on this time years down the road and conceptualize life in terms of before and after this faithful time – a profound milestone within their minds – a time when many will have waved bye bye to the (modern) American way and dream. (i.e. consumerism.) The first verse from the classic sung by Don McLean above captures this sentiment perfectly in my opinion. Full Story
Find your inner joy. What brings joy to your life? Is it your spouse, your children, your garden, your hobbies? Cherish those people and experiences. It will be quite important in 2013 that we maintain our positive perspective and our internal joy while the external world deteriorates. Why? The answer lies in our No-Thanks-Giving parade of those who caused or enabled the current financial and economic trauma. Full Story
I think we are on the verge of something similar as I believe QE3 will drive the market high enough to test or marginally break the all-time highs. However, it’s also going to start an upward spiral in commodity inflation that will eventually poison this fragile economy and be the straw that breaks the camel’s back. Full Story
By: Dr. Ron Paul, U.S. Congressman - 3 December, 2012
As the year draws to an end, America faces yet another Congressionally-manufactured crisis which will likely end in yet another 11th hour compromise, resulting in more government growth touted as “saving” the economy. While cutting taxes is always a good idea, setting up a ticking time bomb with a sunset provision, as the Bush tax cuts did, is terrible policy. Congress should have just cut taxes. But instead, we have a crisis that is sure not to go to waste. Full Story
Gold fell 1.97% for the week and broke it’s rising wedge pattern which is most times a bearish pattern. It looks like we’re going to see gold fall further from here to at least the $1,700 level. We could easily test the 200 day moving average down at $1,665. Gold remains a great long term hold in terms of the physical product and I’m fine with that. I prefer not to trade it as there are many better faster moving stocks to trade and they behave much better making it much easier to make money. Full Story
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