By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 7 November, 2014
Americans spoke loudly and clearly at the polls this week, repudiating Obama’s and the Democrats’ failed big-government policies. This huge Republican victory has serious implications for the Fed and US stock markets. Republican lawmakers have long opposed this easy Fed, and they will put great pressure on it to normalize its balance sheet and interest rates. This is an ominous omen for these Fed-inflated stock markets. Full Story
By: Richard (Rick) Mills, Ahead of the herd - 7 November, 2014
The production of mined gold remains well below market demand. As long as demand exceeds mined supply how can gold’s bull run be over? Your author doesn’t believe it can be. The best way to profit is to buy when everyone else has sold and assets are at rock bottom prices. That would be now. Your best bet for high returns will be to invest in junior resource companies. Full Story
There is little doubt that deflationary risks have increased in recent weeks, if only because the dollar has risen sharply against other currencies. Understanding what this risk actually is, as opposed to what the talking heads say it is, will be central to financial survival, particularly for those with an interest in precious metals. Full Story
The stakes couldn’t be higher. Vladimir Putin has launched a devastating plan to turn Russia into an energy powerhouse. And Europe, dependent on Russian natural gas and oil for a third of its fuel needs, has fallen right into his hands: Putin can bend the EU to his will simply by twisting the valve shut. Full Story
We've all been waiting for years for the connection between paper and physical prices to break. With this latest, Spec algo-induced selloff, are we finally getting close? Some signals are there, not the least of which are the GOFO rates, which have fallen to their most negative levels in over 15 years. Full Story
The precious metals bear market, beginning with silver’s blow out in early 2011 and the general top in the commodity and ‘inflation trade’ along with gold’s lesser blow out later that summer amidst Euro crisis hysterics, has been all about psychology. Well, every bear or bull market is about psychology, but the intensity of this dynamic has been something to behold in the gold sector over these last few years. Full Story
The selloff in precious metals intensified over the past week. GDXJ declined 25% in seven days while Gold plunged below $1180 to $1140 and Silver plunged below $16 and to as low as $15.20. Precious metals are becoming extremely oversold and the bear market is clearly in the 9th inning. Be on alert for a snapback rally to repair the extreme oversold conditions. Although we are likely very close to the bottom in the miners, Gold’s current position continues to leave me skeptical. Full Story
To identify “buying opportunities” in “extreme” situations, we identify historical extreme situations and use them for a benchmark. Provided that a correction occurs in an active bull market, the insights from this kind of analysis can be very helpful. Full Story
Since the start of the Northern Hemisphere summer, a major theme within the global financial market movements has been the strength in the United States Dollar. Being a global reserve currency, a rise in the greenback tends to have major implications for the rest of the world. In recent months we've seen weakness in shares around the world, we've seen commodities dropping like a rock and we've seen global currencies under heavy pressure. Majority of these assets have now become oversold from the short term perspective, especially Precious Metals Full Story
By: Ira Epstein, The Linn Group - 6 November, 2014
Gold has had every bullish prop provided it in the second half of this year turn sour. It doesn’t matter whether it was economic data, war in Gaza or Ukraine, Iris, Syria or whatever. Seasonal influences just haven’t worked since June, when gold peaked out. Full Story
Back on September 11 and 12, there was a summit meeting in a city that involved an organization that most Americans have never heard of. Mainstream media coverage was all but nonexistent. The place was Dushanbe, the capital of Tajikistan, a country few Westerners could correctly place on a map. But you can bet your last ruble that Vladimir Putin knows exactly where Tajikistan is. Because the group that met there is the Russian president’s baby. It’s the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), consisting of six member states: Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital - 6 November, 2014
The sharp rebuke to the Obama administration delivered by the mid-term elections should not be construed as an endorsement of the GOP, which remains as unpopular as ever. Rather, as has been the case in the last few election cycles, voter revolts have hinged on continued dissatisfaction with the strength of the economy and the diminishing financial prospects of ordinary citizens. Given the apparent improvements in the economy, this fact continues to baffle the media which have concluded that Democrats simply failed to effectively communicate the successes that the Administration has achieved. Full Story
The Fed has succeeded in recreating the same environment that existed in 2007. Once again we have rampant risk taking, excessive leverage, and a stock market bubble. The only difference is that WHEN (it’s no longer a question of IF), stocks collapse this time around, the Fed has already spent just about ALL of its ammunition. Full Story
Gold bugs will be pardoned if they are having thoughts of “hari-kari”. Gold bugs woke up on November 5, 2014 to another $25 plus drop in the price of gold. Seems that someone found it convenient to dump $1.5 billion of naked gold futures (equivalent to roughly 1.3 million ounces of gold) on the market at around 12:30 AM EST. There are not too many market makers around at that time to absorb the sale. Silver joined the party and at one time, it was down over 80 cents to around $15.20. The dump on November 5 might not have been unusual except the pattern has been repeated on a number of occasions of late. Full Story
In the video statement below, Peter Schiff makes a direct appeal to Swiss voters to pass the Save Our Swiss Gold initiative on November 30th. The constitutional referendum would require the Swiss National Bank to repatriate its foreign gold holdings and maintain 20% of its foreign reserves balance in gold. If passed, the franc would effectively be the only developed market currency to opt out of the ongoing “currency wars,” and could therefore become a destination for a deluge of foreign capital. Full Story
“Much better than expected.” That’s how John Derrick, Director of Research here at U.S. Global Investors, summed up his trip to Greece, the beleaguered country that hopes to put its financial woes behind it and rise again like the phoenix from the Mediterranean culture’s ancient mythology. Full Story
Ten years ago, when I worked on the equity index derivatives desk at Lehman, we used to sit around and dream things up. Like, we wondered out loud if you could actually create a volatility ETF. It seemed like a brilliant idea. Who wouldn’t want to buy volatility? There were some studies going around that said holding volatility as an asset class alongside a diversified portfolio could improve the portfolio’s risk characteristics. Full Story
Caution is in order. We may see a major correction, a huge downturn, or this bubble could continue to grow for quite some time. I’ll leave the timing predictions to others. Still, investor euphoria worries me. Even those playing with retirement money often ignore warning signs, thinking the parabolic rise in stock prices is never going to end. However, this time is NOT different. Full Story
Very big news on the banking front, the Federal Reserve is now apparently allowing Chinese banks to take stakes in U.S. banks. North of our border, Canada is contemplating becoming one of the many, recent, "renminbi hubs". Why would this be happening? Why would it be happening now? Full Story
I used to think that nobody could spend money faster than my ex-wife, but I was wrong. Mark Zuckerberg is putting her to shame. How much attention did you pay to Facebook’s quarterly results last week? For the average investor, the answer is probably not too much, because Facebook only dropped by 6% when it told Wall Street to dial down its lofty expectations. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 6 November, 2014
As the Banking Cartel continues to push the paper price of gold lower, the Comex experienced another large withdrawal of gold from its inventories. The largest withdrawals came from the vaults at HSBC and Scotia Mocatta. Full Story
I proposed seven drivers of financial implosion in my dissertation. My recent writing has focused on two of them. One is the falling rate of interest on the 10-year government bond. As interest falls, the burden of debt rises. Since the falling rate incentivized more and more people to borrow, the number of indebted people, businesses, corporations, and of course governments is large. When the rate gets to zero, the burden of debt becomes theoretically infinite. Full Story
As most of you probably know, I have been expecting the CRB to form a major three year cycle low sometime next summer. However, I’m now starting to see some things that might indicate a major cycle bottom is going to occur earlier than I expected. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 6 November, 2014
Gold fell yesterday to a bear-market target at 1937.50 that has been 15 months in coming. Clearly, this is an important number, and one needn’t be a chartist to appreciate the sinuous beauty of the downtrending ABC pattern that produced it (see inset). However, its usefulness lies not in any ability to predict the future, since we never pretend to have a crystal ball. Rather, it can serve as a reliable benchmark for determining whether the bear market is spent. Full Story
When Dr. Alan Greenspan became chairman of the Federal Reserve, he moved from the world of rhetorical economics to the world of action. His most recent memoir, "The Map and the Territory 2.0: Risk, Human Nature, and the Future of Forecasting," attempts to make sense of how the financial crisis of 2008 came to be and how we can better predict future crises, along with the role of gold in a global monetary system. Full Story
By: Investment Research Dynamics - 5 November, 2014
This graph shows the average intra-day price movements of gold over a 5-yr period. As you can see, on average over 5 years, during the time of day when the Asian physical delivery markets are open, the price of gold has positive returns. During the time period when the Lonon/US fractional-hypothecated fiat paper gold markets are open and Asia is closed, the price of gold declines. Full Story
As I predicted months ago in this letter and last year in Code Red, the Japanese have launched another missile in their ongoing currency war, somewhat fittingly on Halloween. Rather than being spooked, the markets saw it as just another round of feel-good quantitative easing and climbed to all-time highs on the Dow and S&P 500. Full Story
Lately the Dow has been rising and falling hundreds of points in a day, bad news is coming from the Middle East, Europe is sliding into recession, and now we’ve got an Ebola scare! What are precious metals’ holders, who have been watching the up, down and sideways moves in gold and silver – sometimes during a single day’s trading session – expected to do? How do we keep our balance and move forward with confidence in our precious metals’ “stacking” program, adding to our holdings on a regular or dollar-cost averaging basis? Full Story
The chaos that one day will ensue from our 35-year experiment with worldwide fiat money will require a return to money of real value. We will know that day is approaching when oil-producing countries demand gold, or its equivalent, for their oil rather than dollars or euros. The sooner the better.—Ron Paul Full Story
At least we can hope the new Congress will thwart a dictatorial executive branch and hold the Attorney General accountable for actions and the inaction of looking the other way. In my opinion it is now far (as in many years) too late. Changing Congress at this point is like flying in a new crew to the Titanic after hitting the iceberg. The damage has already been done in every way possible. We are taking on water quickly, a new crew, a new captain, a new anything will not fix the gaping hole in our hull. Only a new ship (system and currency) will do. May God bless America, she needs it! Full Story
As we have a dire view on Japan, we should add that we don’t think Japan’s problems are all that unique. There is too much debt in the U.S. and Europe. The one country where citizens are fed up with deploying central banks to cure all problems is Switzerland. We will have an in-depth discussion of Switzerland’s vote to force the Swiss National Bank to hold a minimum of 20% of its reserves in gold in an upcoming Merk Insight (to ensure you don’t miss it, sign-up to receive our free newsletters). Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 5 November, 2014
As a result of what happened during just one of the past twenty decades (the 1970s), most people now believe that a large rise in "price inflation" or inflation expectations is needed to bring about a major rally in the gold price. This impression of gold is so ingrained that it has persisted even though the US$ gold price managed to rise by 560% during 2001-2011 in parallel with only small increases in "price inflation" (based on the CPI) and inflation expectations. The reality is that gold tends to perform very well during periods of declining confidence in the financial system, the economy and/or the official money, regardless of whether the decline in confidence is based on expectations of higher "inflation" or something else entirely. Full Story
All 100 were asked to come up with a business plan. They were asked for all inputs on the cost side but to leave revenue projections blank initially. All the costs you would typically see in a business were included; PP&E, utilities, employees, insurance, licenses, taxes, travel etc. At the end of the exercise all 100 were shown a chart of the $/Yen as shown below. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 5 November, 2014
Idaho North [OTC symbol: IDAH] offers investors a potentially lucrative synergy between two very successful entrepreneurs. CEO Mark Fralich started out as a reporter with the Associated Press News Service but went on to co-found Spoval Fiber Optics before moving into the exploration business with Mines Management, Consolidated Goldfields Corp. and some other natural resource companies. Like most executives in the exploration business, he is an aggressive risk-taker. But he is also an astute bettor, perhaps never moreso than in his choice of Thomas Callicrate to head up his technical team. Full Story
Hi Jim. You have recently published Currency Wars and now The Death of Money. Are you expecting a global collapse of every currency? And if so, a collapse relative to what? I expect a collapse in the value of currencies relative to real goods, real assets and real services. This will happen to all currencies, not just the dollar. Full Story
In January of 2011, I swapped a fair amount of physical silver bullion for physical gold bullion. A couple of weeks ago, I reversed the swap. When I first did the swap in 2011, silver was trading above $30. I wasn’t trying to call any tops or bottoms. Gold simply offered more relative value to me at that period of time than silver did. Likewise, I’m not really interested in predicting that silver has “bottomed” against gold, at this point in time. Silver simply appears to offer more relative value to me now, than gold. Full Story
Disclosure: I expected the triple bottom in gold and silver to hold. It did not! Silver crashed lower (from $19.28 on August 28 to $17.26 on October 29 to under $16 on October 31) and then gold plunged below $1179 to about $1160. Full Story
Gold continued weak in its performance during September. The yellow metal’s price dropped almost 5.5% from $1286.50 to $1216.5 (London PM Fix). In the last Market Overview we came to the conclusion that the real interest rate is one of the main drivers of the gold price. Although the negative relationship between real interest rates and gold prices does not always hold, the recent medium-term declines (including the last month) were probably, to a large extent, caused by the rise in the long-term real interest rates. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 4 November, 2014
I have lower targets outstanding, including a big-picture support at 1125.00, but the one shown at 1141.30 should be used as a minimum downside objective over the very near-term. Traders should position from the short side until it is reached, but be aware that a rally back up to the midpoint pivot (i.e., the red line at 1198.45) would be neither unusual nor especially bullish. More likely is that it would be a bull trap — one making gold an even more enticing short than it is from these levels. Full Story
By: John Browne, Senior Economic Consultant at Euro Pacific Capital - 3 November, 2014
Last week, the unelected European Commission demanded that the United Kingdom pay an additional $2.8 billion to fund the European Union. The new charges resulted from the fact that the British economy had grown faster than had been expected in the past year. The demand sparked outrage from Great Britain's Prime Minister, David Cameron, and media, particularly as France and Germany would receive rebates, financed largely by the new funds being demanded from the UK. Looked at in a different light, it is simply a tax on growth that will not sit well with the British public, and could perhaps hasten the day that the UK will split from the Eurozone. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 3 November, 2014
With his sneering at GATA today, commodity letter writer Dennis Gartman inadvertently signifies what's wrong about Western financial journalism -- its fear of committing journalism. Gartman writes: "The 'gold bugs' shall apparently never give up. They are as convinced now that the gold market is rigged as they were in years past. They are confident that they are right in their belief that the central banks are selling gold at every opportunity and that if only this 'manipulation' is brought to everyone's collective attention and exposed, then gold shall rally and rally and rally some more. Full Story
One of the greatest fears this October—possibly the most volatile month of the year—has been the correlation between the S&P 500 Index’s ascent in the first three quarters of the year and the possible ramifications of the end of quantitative easing (QE). Full Story
Alasdair Macleod of Goldmoney.com put out a piece last week which suggests China may already have accumulated between 20,000 and 25,000 tons of gold prior to 2002. Please read this very carefully as it makes very good sense and puts a piece into the puzzle which was missing for so long. Let me also add, if this turns out to be true then it is THE biggest financial news since August 15, 1971 when the U.S. defaulted on the gold standard. Full Story
In light of the news from the land of the rising sun and the sinking currency, let’s reserve NFTRH 315’s only real charting for a big picture monthly view of currencies, to which we usually give just a brief update, and then some misc. big picture monthly charts [not included in this excerpt] as we try to gain perspective on things that may seem illogical to our rational minds. Full Story
The Keynesian economists managing or advising the world’s Central Banks have always averred that they could pull us out of the weakest recovery in the post-WWII era if they were allowed to have their way. Their “way” involves rampant debt monetization, also called Quantitative Easing or QE. Indeed, the primary argument from the Keynesians as to why QE has thus far failed to generate a rip-roaring recovery is that none of the QE programs in place were large enough. Full Story
Briefly: In our opinion speculative short positions (full) in gold, silver and mining stocks are justified from the risk/reward perspective. We are adjusting the stop-loss levels (again), so in a way we are locking-in even more of the profits from the current positions and, at the same time, keeping a chance of increasing them. Full Story
Woe unto the gold speculators, and a curse laid upon the house of silver. At least, that’s how it may feel. In more clinical terms, the gold price fell from $1,230.90 to $1,172.59, or $58.31. The drop this week was 4.7%. The price closed the week below the level set after the crash of 2013, which was $1180 (by the way, an intraday dip). The gold price has never closed a day below $1188 since 2010. Full Story
Precious metal dealers in Germany have literally been run down after the latest slump in gold and silver. Wholesalers already expect deferred deliveries. Full Story
Charles Nenner - Summary: Former Goldman Sachs guru, Charles Nenner says the risk / reward in US equities is nil China and Japan are both building huge arsenals in advance of a possible showdown over island territory; billions of dollars will flow from Japan's $3 trillion pension reservoir Full Story
I have deferred publishing The Strategy-part 3 until now as I first wanted Mr Market to deliver his verdict that we here at Rambus Chartology have gotten these market phases right. Since this analysis is so outside the mainstream it has been met with universal skepticism from the beginning. This week the PM market officially entered Phase III of the great precious metals bear market of 2011-201X, and the market has validated our thesis. Full Story
Gold finally crashed key support at last year’s lows on Friday, which was a very bearish development that has opened up the prospect of an immediate severe decline at least to the strong support in the $1,000 area. Such a decline will have grave consequences for the Precious Metals mining industry, whose costs have risen sharply in recent years, and is expected to lead to a massive wave of company failures, as many who have been “hanging on by their fingernails” finally lose the fight and disappear over the cliff. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 2 November, 2014
Dear GATA: I have to ask you something, as you may be among the few people I can trust. (At least I think you are people and not an Internet-derived scam.) Am I imagining everything that's happening or have I just been brainwashed into believing it? Are the things that people like Andrew Maguire, Eric Sprott, and Egon von Greyerz say really true and factual or just hearsay and nonsense? Full Story
The ending of QE3 money printing by the Federal Reserve and the announcement of QE9 by the Bank of Japan knocked the price of gold and silver back to levels not seen for four years last week, a logical reaction if you genuinely think US interest rates are now on the way back up. Full Story
During the time Alan Greenspan and representative Ron Paul had their famous series of exchanges (some might have labeled them confrontations) during Congressional hearings from 1997 to 2005, the congressman made what turns out to have been a prescient observation. "My questions," he said, "are always on the same subject. If I don't bring up the issue of hard money versus fiat money, Greenspan himself does." I say "prescient observation" because here we are a decade or more later and the "new" post-Fed Greenspan sounds very much like the "old" pre-Fed Greenspan-––the one who consistently advocated gold before he became Fed chairman. Full Story
I traveled last week to the New Orleans Investment Conference, previously known as the ‘Gold Show.’ Jim Blanchard, a man known for promoting the right to own gold during the Nixon era, started the conference in 1974. Early on, the conference was a gathering place for investors in precious metals. Speakers such as Rick Rule broke out into the investment scene through conferences like this one. Full Story
As you know, the New Orleans Investment Conference celebrated its 40th Anniversary last week. After being involved in nearly 30 of them myself, I can testify that the week following the event is a tough slog. Physical and mental exhaustion combine to make it hard to get things done. But time waits for no one. And I wanted to rush some important news to you as soon as possible. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 2 November, 2014
Investors snatched up a record number of Silver Eagles as the paper price was manipulated to new lows today. This is a very strange market phenomenon, as several “Official” analysts forecasted a drop or sell-off of physical metal if the price continued to decline. Full Story
The trials of Job indeed! To that end, I do not recall taking a day off from writing in the past two years – and given the horrific immolation the world’s Central banks are foisting on the world’s population, I don’t anticipate slowing down any time soon. Following the past two days’ violent, post-FOMC precious metals attacks, my principal thought is not if, but when this “Cartel Suicide” yields an utter explosion of global physical buying. Full Story
All the lip-flapping these days in Europe is about deflation. And if you’re listening to it — and even if you’re not listening to it — you should buy gold. Pundits are worried that because the European economies have slowed and prices have retreated a bit, deflation therefore is stalking the Continent like Jack the Ripper stalking London’s East End. Sweden fanned the flames last week when that country’s central bank cut interest rates to 0%. Not near-zero, like in the U.S. … literally, 0%. It did so even though there is no indication that deflation is anywhere near the Viking land. Full Story
On several occasions, over as many months, comments have been made here to the effect that reading developing market activity is the best source for knowing what to expect, moving forward. Most people have a need to rationalize the markets by coordinating known events with the current price. Last year, it was how many record coin sales around the world would impact the market, then the number of tonnes China and Russia were importing. Lately, the opening of the Shanghai Gold Exchange where true price discovery could be expected, the ongoing disappearance of reserves held by COMEX and LBMA, etc, etc, etc., none of which had the market impact for which so many had hoped. Full Story
Markets were strong as suspected, and as the charts said would happen with leading stocks really doing well for us. This is a very strong time of year historically and it looks like this year will be no different. We generally make a good portion of the years profits in the couple months into Christmas. It really doesn’t take much time to make the years gains great, but being able to wait for the right conditions to appear is very hard for many, but not those who trade with me. Full Story
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