By: Doug Hornig, Editor Casey Research – BIG GOLD - 7 November, 2008
Currently, we find ourselves in a mess that many are calling the most serious economic crisis since the Great Depression. If not worse. A mile-high mountain of paper profits has been set ablaze and reduced to ashes, choking investors who put their faith in houses, stocks, or commodities, or… or… just about anything else you can name. Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital, Inc. - 7 November, 2008
What nearly all politicians, on both sides of the aisle, fail to understand is that the current contraction and credit crunch is necessary to restore order to an economy that is horribly out of balance. Years of misguided fiscal and monetary policy and market-distorting regulations have resulted in reckless borrowing and spending on Main Street, pervasive gambling on Wall Street, and rampant fraud and corruption at every intersection. Full Story
By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 7 November, 2008
-Nobama rally…the Dow has fallen almost 1,000 points since the election results were announced… -Americans are forced into frugality…the Bank of England makes its boldest move in 27 years… -Stability lends way to instability…the end of the world as we know it…and more! Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence LLC - 7 November, 2008
With the election of a new President, it was an important week for the financial markets. Whether you were part of the 53% of Americans who voted for Obama or the 47% who voted against him, you’ve got to be thankful this bitter campaign has ended. A peaceful regime change is a great blessing that should not be overlooked. Full Story
Investors are understandably dismayed at the savaging their portfolios have taken in August/September/October, 2008. Dismay is understandable, but perplexity should not be. Full Story
SHOCK and AWE was never supposed to be the Bank of England's approach. "Predictable", even "stolid" were meant to be this ancient institution's watchwords. The current chief, Mervyn King, proclaimed it so. Time and again. Full Story
The Great Depression of the 1930’s was not due to the ‘contractionist propensities’ of the gold standard as alleged by John M. Keynes. Nor was it due to fractional reserve banking as alleged by Murray Rothbard. Rather, it was due to the government’s sabotaging the clearing system of the international gold standard, the bill market. Full Story
The October estimate of non-farm payrolls saw firms reduce payrolls by -240K for the month and the rate of unemployment jump sharply to 6.5%. Revisions made by Labor Department subtract an additional -179K over the past two months. The decline in October’s payroll tally has reduced employment by 1.2mln during the first 10 months of 2008, with over half of that total occurring over the past 90 days. Full Story
The legendary Warren Buffet is doing a great favor for investors by bring the investment term warrants back into the limelight. Within the last 2 months Buffett has stepped in and assisted with an infusion of capital in Goldman Sachs of $5 billion and General Electric of $3 billion. In both of these transactions Buffett insisted/demanded/requested/required, that he also receive warrants. These warrants essentially are an equity kicker, an additional incentive or sweetener to get the deals done. Full Story
By: David Coffin and Eric Coffin - 7 November, 2008
It’s been a brutal summer for the entire resource sector on both the metals and equities side, compounding an already nasty year. The past six weeks have brought one of the steepest sell offs we’ve ever seen for both commodities and materials stocks. There has been a lot of talk about demand destruction, but less focus, as usual, on the supply side of the equation. Full Story
By: The GOLD Report and Rick Rule - 7 November, 2008
Investor Rick Rule, founder of Global Resource Investments, is legendary in the mining, energy, and exploration business. In this edited transcript from a presentation (10/10/08) for clients, Rule shares his thoughts on the current situation. Full Story
By: David N. Vaughn, Gold Letter, Inc. - 7 November, 2008
Where were the government bailouts when the horse and buggy industry was fighting to keep up with the newly invented automobile? Where were the bailouts when the US textile industry all went east and west and every other direction but home? To my understanding, today, there is not one shirt manufactured from scratch in the US. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 7 November, 2008
And now that the governments of America have literally become the economy (and paying themselves handsomely in the process!), there is no way that the government can be allowed to shrink… Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 7 November, 2008
For day traders, leveraging the stock market’s breathtaking volatility of late has probably seemed like skiing the steeps at Crested Butte: one mistake and you’re dead, or wishing you were dead. Who could have predicted the Dow Industrials would one day gyrate so wildly that even 2,000-point swings would not be technically significant? You can see why in the chart below. Full Story
By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 6 November, 2008
-The economy has had enough partying and has gone the way of Amy Winehouse…the most Americans laid off in almost 6 years… -Even the Pope is cutting back on luxuries…Obama is about to follow the lead of Hata, Obuchi, Mori and Murayama… -The crucial differences between the United States and Japan…an inflationary road to nowhere…and more! Full Story
By: Gary Dorsch, Editor, Global Money Trends - 6 November, 2008
October is famous for stock markets crashes, - the Crash of 1929, “Black Monday” 1987, the Asian Contagion crash in October 1997, and the Sub-Prime crash of October 2008. US Treasury chief Henry Paulson’s ill-fated decision on Sept 14th, to pull the plug on the 158-year old brokerage firm of Lehman Brothers, set in motion a horrific chain of events that unleashed a torrent of panic selling on commodity and global stock markets, froze the European and US banking systems, and changed the direction American politics for years to come. Full Story
Morgan is the quintessential leviathan in the Interest Rate arena through their obscenely sized Medium-Term Interest Rate Swap book which stood at 59 Trillion at June 30, 2008. The interest rate swap book, due to its sheer size, overwhelms the bond complex by creating artificial demand for government securities. This interest rate suppressive activity began in earnest back in the 1990’s and has kept market rates of interest at artificially low levels. The FUNDAMENTAL [and ongoing] MISPRICING of CAPITAL – for many years – has led to a myriad of economic excesses like the Dot Com boom, subsequent housing boom and the financial asset boom itself. Full Story
The US is on track to incur a fiscal deficit of $1 Trillion, perhaps much more, in this fiscal year. If the International Reserves are not growing, that means it will be impossible to fund that deficit. That would mean: monetary inflation in spades, in the US. Full Story
The irony to this whole mess is the fact that many of those who are directly responsible for the chaos of today are the same people dictating the direction of the future. I think it is insane to allow anyone who shares responsibility for this nightmare to be in a position to pass laws and direct the flow of capital that has been created in hopes of bailing the world out of the crater it has fallen into. Full Story
By: John Browne, Euro Pacific Capital - 6 November, 2008
Having received 62.5 million votes, Barack Obama has earned a spectacular personal victory and a clear mandate to bring some form of change to the United States. Obama’s decisive and masterly election campaign, where he first had to outmaneuver the formidable Clinton machine, may bode well for his ability to implement a government response of unprecedented magnitude. Time will tell if this is a blessing or a curse. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The MOGAMBO GURU - 6 November, 2008
This horror again reminds me of Ure's Disease, which is clinically described above as 'the onset of sudden sobriety and the realization that there really may be nowhere to hide', which is why gold always rises at the realization that there truly is 'nowhere to hide' except in gold (and silver), as everything else is down as much, or more! Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 6 November, 2008
Investors greeted Obama’s victory with a thunderous Bronx cheer yesterday, sending the Dow Industrials plummeting nearly 500 points in heavy trading. In ordinary times, we might have inferred that Wall Street denizens were registering their fear of what the most politically liberal President in U.S. history might attempt over the next four years. Full Story
The ideal hedge-fund manager was only just out of college when the Asian Crisis hit. He was smoking blunts behind the school bike-shed on Black Monday 1987. He was still in diapers when the S&P lost half its value in '73-74. Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 5 November, 2008
What happens in December regarding the gold and silver Comex futures contracts will be very important. Will there be default? We’ll find out in seven weeks. This may be the last stage of the gold battle, but the price will continue to rise. The financial battle won’t be over for sometime to come. The bailouts are for Illuminists not for the people. The system will still encounter hyperinflation followed by purging and eventual depression. The dollar will be almost totally debased. These people do not care; they own gold just like you do. They know as you do creating more debt to solve a debt problem can’t work. The Fed and the Treasury can’t print enough money to cover up this collapsed. Full Story
By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 5 November, 2008
-"America is a place where all things are possible" - sort of…looking to Washington with hope in their hears - and humbug in their heads… -A new dawn, or a dark night…Want to know what's next? Just look at Japan… -Thrift becomes fashionable again…championing the merits of riding the bicycle…and more! Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc. - 5 November, 2008
In a letter to clients today, Murray Pollitt of Pollitt & Co. in Toronto reflects on what a "new Bretton Woods" agreement would mean -- very possibly the formal remonetization of gold among the nations. Full Story
By: Peter J. Cooper, Arabian Money - 5 November, 2008
But which asset class could you possibly buy for safe returns in a collapsing global economy? Which asset class will protect you as the deflation of the recession turns into the higher inflation of the government printing press and the slow recovery? Full Story
I do not think we are facing the end of prosperity. We are facing a recession. The dreams of millions of Americans will be smashed in this recession. A big smashed dream is retirement in comfort. That one is statistically doomed. But it always has been. It was a fantasy dream. It has been exposed as a dream for those few Americans who have vested pensions. The majority have always relied on the promise of Social Security, which was a statistical fraud from day one. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 5 November, 2008
With inflation in prices running at more than 10%, and inflation in credit running at up to 100% and more, bond investors are getting the lowest yield in half a freaking century? Hahahaha! Morons! Full Story
By: The Gold Report and Brien Lundin - 4 November, 2008
As difficult as it may be for precious metals investors to sit on their hands, that may be the best “action” for surviving this hazardous transition from deflationary to inflationary times. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, Gold Newsletter Editor Brien Lundin explains why it is absolutely inevitable that inflation will trigger a rise in gold and hints that a December “surprise” could end the waiting game. His advice is to let this round of deleveraging and deflation end before making any serious plays. Full Story
By: Alex Epstein and Yaron Brook - 4 November, 2008
Alan Greenspan claims that the free market failed to prevent the financial crisis, and that he is “shocked” that his professed “free-market ideology” turned out to contain a “flaw.” But why should we take him seriously? Greenspan, while once associated with laissez-faire philosopher Ayn Rand, hasn’t advocated genuinely free markets for decades. Full Story
By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 4 November, 2008
-We pity the fool who gets elected today…the most foolhardy effort to prevent a correction we have ever seen… -Cash will be trash…America's factory index at a record low…consumer spending imploding… -Your last chance to get I.O.U.S.A….an exclusive interview with Ron Paul…and more! Full Story
By: Theodore Butler and Israel Friedman - 4 November, 2008
The evidence of a wholesale silver shortage continues to build. This is in addition to the current retail shortage. The continuing tightening in the price differentials between the trading months in COMEX futures has continued and become more dramatic. Full Story
By: Dr. Ron Paul, U.S. Congressman - 4 November, 2008
Since the bailout bill passed, I have been frequently disturbed to hear “experts” wrongly blaming the free market for our recent economic problems and calling for more regulation. In fact, further regulation can only make things worse. Full Story
Modern economics is not rocket science. Modern economics is a fraud. Metrics such as “monetary aggregates” and the “velocity of money” are merely devices meant to divert attention away from the fraud in progress. Full Story
Gold is maintaining a consolidative tone after gains last week stalled shy of the $800 level. Focus is squarely on today's US elections and investor uncertainty is likely keep market conditions rather choppy for the near-term. Full Story
By: Steven Saville, Speculative Investor - 4 November, 2008
In a number of respects, not least being the magnitude of the decline, the closest historical parallel to the equity bear market of 2007-2008 is the equity bear market of 1937-1938. Interestingly, there was also a very sharp downturn in commodity prices during 1937-1938. Even more interestingly, the 1937-1938 commodity plunge proved to be the first major correction in a secular commodity bull market that lasted until the early 1950s. Full Story
Almost daily I receive E-mails from subscribers who worry about deflation. Here is my simple answer: “Watch what they do – not what they say!” Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The MOGAMBO GURU - 4 November, 2008
I agree with this only because there IS no soothing salve for the globe's economic ills with which to effect a cure, which means that there is no economic 'solution' to over-indebtedness and governmental stupidity that does not involve incredible pain… Full Story
Maybe one in a million of the world’s citizens realizes that there is much more gold in existence than there is silver. If sufficient numbers of people knew this fact, gold would not be 75 times the price of silver. In fact, gold might be a lot less than 16 times the price of silver. This isn’t complicated. When enough people come to learn that there is less silver than gold in the world, they will buy silver (and maybe sell gold) until the relative price of each reflects silver’s greater rarity. Full Story
The NAV of THE TIMELESS PRECIOUS METAL FUND decreased 40.5% in October 2008. The price of gold went down 16.6% while the one for silver decreased another 18.3% respectively. Gold and silver indices also plummeted 38.3% on average over the past month. Junior gold and silver stocks – the domain and focus of THE TIMELESS PRECIOUS METAL FUND – have dropped to the level of 2002 and ignore the fact that the price of gold has increased by 180%, the price of silver by 140% during the same period. Full Story
By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 3 November, 2008
-Worldwide deflation…one in five houses in America is underwater… -We saw this Japan-like slump ten years too soon…Welcome to Hiroshima, mon amour… -Bubbles always pop…what goes up eventually comes down…and people always get, neither what they expect nor what they hope for, but what they deserve…and more! Full Story
If the Government is engaged in the greatest round of printing money in its history, this is going to cause a rise in prices. And what is the traditional hedge against a rise in prices? I will give you a hint. It is a 4 letter word spelled G…O…L…D. This is the new economics. 2 + 2 equals the 4 letter word GOLD. Full Story
Save me – I’m sure that’s exactly the sentiment many hedge fund managers share today. Why would this be? Answer: Because as Doug Noland aptly puts it in his regular column this week, The Arb Game Is Over, meaning that on a macro-basis the larger speculation / credit cycles have turned lower; and, they will continue to fall for some time, taking many an unaware hedge fund manager with them. Full Story
By: Donald Grove, Washington Correspondent, Casey Research, LLC - 3 November, 2008
The $800 billion bailout, and billions more being pumped less obviously into the global economy, will cure nothing. Americans are clamoring for a savior. No one is willing to believe that the party is over. In the past, someone always came to our rescue. Full Story
There are many very serious economic negatives of a central bank that supporters of central banks ignore. Instead, they argue that the central bank is a good institution because it helps to remedy recessions. That argument is highly misleading. The central bank can and does stimulate economic activity at times, but in doing so, it creates booms, bubbles, inflation, mal-investment, and the subsequent depressions. It is as if a doctor gave amphetamines to a patient who wanted to stay awake for the next 72 hours. The patient goes hyperactive for a while before suddenly dropping dead. Full Story
The major media has done its job. After burying its collective head in the sand for years as Wall Street perpetrated a moral hazard of epic proportions upon Main Street America and much of the rest of the world, the media have now scared the public so thoroughly with daily stories about debt, derivatives, evaporating liquidity and now, even deflation itself. The public, as usual eats it up and creates the counter-party for what comes next. Full Story
"A COUNTRY'S LONG-RUN INFLATION is caused primarily, or perhaps exclusively, by increases in its own monetary base," wrote Richard G.Anderson – a vice-president and senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis – in a 2006 paper. Full Story
By: David Chapman, Union Securities - 3 November, 2008
Investors must be breathing a sigh of relief. The rebound last week has taken some pressure off what has been the worst decline since the 2000-02 high tech/dot-com collapse. More importantly, we believe it signals at least a temporary end to the collapse. But is it the absolute end? Probably not, but relief rallies can be quite impressive. Full Story
The silver market has been looking interesting for months, despite the price collapse. Beneath the surface of the recent spot price falls the structure of the market is changing in such a way that a powerful bull market is being set up. Full Story
In the past few weeks, the U.S. Federal Reserve has joined with the U.S. Treasury in an attempt to remedy the financial fiasco. In that effort, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet has ballooned by more than 50%. Never in peace time history has the central bank for the world's reserve currency so intentionally implemented policies that will destroy the value of that reserve currency. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 3 November, 2008
The New York Times led its front page on Saturday with an article about, of all things, deflation: Fear of Deflation Lurks as Global Demand Drops read the headline. Better late than never, we suppose. For years, Rick’s Picks has been shouting from the rooftops that a catastrophic debt deflation was not merely possible, but inevitable. Full Story
1st Hour: Headline news & Market Weatherman Forecast. Spotlight Stock Picks with big dividends. The International Forecaster and Host Chris Waltzek answer listeners' questions. -2nd Hour Nouriel Roubini Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 2 November, 2008
We'll give you three good reasons why gold is not performing as it should under the current circumstances: First reason: manipulation. Second reason: rampant manipulation. Third Reason: incessant, nonstop, unabated, fiendish manipulation. Full Story
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor - 2 November, 2008
It is quite clear to those who are long term commodities bulls that the world is not finding massive new supplies of oil, or massive new fields of gold, copper, Uranium, etc. One cannot just go out and decide that today they would like to find a new oil field, or build a new nuclear power plant, or open a new coal mine; these things take time. Full Story
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors - 2 November, 2008
This week we survey the economic landscape that the new president will inherit. It is a polite understatement to say that he will be getting a serious mess. In reality, the US goes to the polls this next Tuesday to elect a Janitor-in-Chief. He will face a task that rivals that of Hercules in cleaning out the Stygian stables (legendary huge stables that had not been mucked out for ten years). Full Story
This is the title I have given to a chapter in my new book examining the insights and predictions of arguably the most consistent and cerebral gold bug of the twenty-first century. I hope he will indulge my inadequate analysis. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The MOGAMBO GURU - 2 November, 2008
But this monetary expansion thing is the stuff of nightmares, too, and one day soon you will wake up screaming in the middle of the night, bathed in sweat, jolted out of a nightmare of financial misery and suffering that is all but unimaginable… Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 2 November, 2008
Each day more and more bottom-callers throw their hats into the ring. They include almost all of the famed prognosticators plus many of the unknown ones who are hoping to make their reputation by calling the conclusion of this painful market. Most of their optimism is based upon the nearly 50% decline in the market over the past year, plus the sense that stocks are now fairly valued based upon normal market conditions. But the problem is, these are not normal times. Full Story
I must admit that I could care less where the bull market is. I am not a gold or silver bug. I understand monetary history and the events unfolding today are in history what make gold and silver shine and their true use, as money, reappear. Full Story
One of the driving forces behind the various asset bubbles around the world has been the yen carry trade. Traders borrowed the yen at 0.5% and invested in higher-yielding assets around the world. There has also been a carry trade prevalent in the U.S. dollar and Swiss Franc. Full Story
The first week of November will see another heavy week of data releases on the calendar that will feature the first significant look at the data from the real economy in October, when the credit markets seized up. The primary market-moving event will be the Friday publication of the October estimate of non-farm payrolls that we expect to contract by -225K. The week will kick off with the release of the October ISM survey of manufacturing conditions nationwide, total vehicle sales and the construction spending report for September. Full Story
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