Dollars buy less because of inflation, but what causes the inflation? Creating dollars from nothing (fractional reserve banking), which increases the total number of dollars in circulation, causes consumer price inflation by reducing the value of each dollar that existed prior to the legalized counterfeiting. There is more to the story but this is the simple answer. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 7 October, 2016
Gold, silver, and their miners’ stocks plummeted out of the blue this week, shattering their bull-market uptrends. Gold-futures speculators had been holding excessive long positions for months, weathering all kinds of selling catalysts. But once gold slipped through key support, long-side futures stop losses started to trigger unleashing cascading selling. Understanding this event and its implications is crucial for traders. Full Story
If anything, today's BLSBS reveals that the average US citizen is now working multiple, part-time jobs in a desperate attempt to make ends meet. And this "robust economy" that is "near full employment" is the supposed rationale for the Federal Reserve to raise the Fed Funds rate as soon as next month. What a perverted lie and scam this all is! Full Story
Stock investing is ultimately based on risk. The global risk-free rate is the Us 10-Year Treasury. Again, this is the “risk-free” rate for the world. Stocks trade relative to this rate. The ENTIRE move in the market from the early 2016 lows was predicated on bond yields falling (or bond prices rising). As this occurred, risk became cheaper, forcing stocks higher. Full Story
Although the U.S. economy is currently expanding, we cannot rule out the possibility of a significant slowdown in the next few years. Some analysts argue that the Fed would be out of ammunition during the next crisis. Is that true? “Not necessarily,” as it turns out – the whole issue is a bit more complicated. We will now analyze what monetary weapons could the Fed use to stimulate the economy when the next recession strikes. The table below presents a short summary of available tools. Full Story
Every few months there is some nonsensical headline that is passed off as news when it should be relegated to the rubbish bin of time. Sometimes it is high oil price that is not good for the market, and then on other occasions, we hear that low oil prices are not good. Then you have the Dance with the Fed and interest rates, which sounds more like a silly girl peeling petals from a flower and murmuring “he loves me, or he loves me not”. If you go back and start from 2006 for example, you will notice that with the passage of each year the headlines are bombastic in nature. Full Story
Robert Kiyoaski returns to the show, America's 'Rich Dad' predicted a major financial crash in 2016, which has been delayed by policymaker programs. Toxic debt purchases and negative interest rates are the most profound indication of economic stress. Pension plans that based future payouts on high rates, not zero or negative rates, could shortchange many pensioners. Full Story
It’s during election season especially that people tend to forget who their real friends are. You won’t find your friends fighting for the levers of power or schmoozing those who are. In an attempt to refresh ourselves about who’s on our side and who’s not, I offer some excerpts from around the Web. All emphasis is mine. Full Story
This week's drop in the gold price has spooked many investors, says money manager Adrian Day, who provides his perspective on the volatility. Let's cut to the chase: we do not think the drop in gold earlier this week marks the end of this bull market. Why did gold drop? First, I think it's fair to say that, technically, gold was looking increasingly vulnerable over the past several weeks. Many new-time buyers were getting nervous. Against that background, it did not take much for gold to fall. Full Story
The stock market’s buoyant behavior is bizarre considering the dicey state of the U.S. economy, the threat of war in the Middle East, and an election campaign that has unsettled Americans as never before. To take them one by one: 1) Some of the biggest U.S. companies are about to report a sixth straight quarter of declining earnings, and GDP estimates have been revised downward to a barely-breathing 1.8%. Full Story
Are you a millionaire yet? Me neither. We might have been by now, had we better understood the finer points of “fear” and “greed” during our investing lives. “Greed, for lack of a better word, is good,” said fictional corporate raider Gordon Gekko, played by Michael Douglas in 1987's “Wall Street.” The quote became a rally cry for the 13-year stock market surge following the October '87 crash. Full Story
We go along with the World Gold Council and others who have deemed the current situation a buying opportunity, particularly for physical buyers who can weather any further downside. In the past snapback rallies under similar conditions have been sharp and robust. We can report strong volumes at USAGOLD in both gold and silver over the past few days – not at the best-of-the-year levels reported by some of our British counterparts, but notable nevertheless. Americans are not as directly affected, but they know attractive pricing when they see it. Full Story
We could sum it up in two words as to why earnings recession was, is and will be a non-event; Hot Money. However, for some strange reason when it comes to the markets individuals happen to love long explanations even though in most cases the long answers reveal a lot less than the short ones do. So let’s take a look at some of these meaningless statistics. Full Story
Bob Hoye, editor and Chief investment strategist of Institutional Advisors returns with a new Global Warning Alert. The bull market in the PMs remains intact - selling continues to offer enticing entry opportunities. Our guest scans the minutiae for hints of financial tipping points, such as the climbing LIBOR rate which is behaving similarly to 2008. Full Story
As trading in the fourth quarter got underway this week, the bottom quickly fell out in precious metals, with gold and silver each finishing down in Tuesday’s session by more than 3 and 5 percent, respectively. When the dust settled, both assets had completely retraced the moves since the June 23rd Brexit vote roiled global markets. Full Story
The question confronting investors right now is whether the lateral trading range in the major indices represents consolidation of the long-term uptrend, which precedes an eventual upside breakout from the range? Or does it represent distribution (i.e. selling) which precedes an eventual breakdown of the trend? Full Story
In episode 7 of Hidden Secrets of Money, Mike Maloney glimpses into the near future to show you how fast the U.S. dollar and economy could collapse. You’ll learn about the velocity of currency, a concept economists try to complicate but is actually quite simple when you realize it has more to do with psychology than numbers. You’ll also see all the potential moves the Federal Reserve will attempt to prevent disaster and how they will all fail. Full Story
Amid all the epic financial bubbles that have emerged in the past few years, real estate has been a bit of an afterthought. Still, the action in hot market trophy properties has been pretty bubbly. And now the run may be ending. London penthouses are sitting empty due to Brexit uncertainty. Vancouver condos aren’t selling because of recent taxes imposed on foreign buyers. And in the US some formerly red-hot markets are heading south. Full Story
Today’s moderate weakness put the futures on course for a further decline to as low as 1216.50 over the next 2-4 days. However, using a more conservative ABC pattern (see inset) yields the possibility of a less painful outcome in the form of a bullish reversal from 1257.30, or perhaps 1235.10 if any lower. If that last number is decisively penetrated, though, the futures are unlikely to avoid falling to 1216.50. Alternatively, bulls could get back in the game with a close on Thursday above 1279.40, and they would be in good position to seize the advantage with a push by week’s end exceeding 1312.90. Full Story
We should not be surprised that the long-standing troubles at Deutsche Bank would appear to be coming to a head now. For global financial centers, October is often the cruellest month – a time when stock markets and whole economies have been known to go bump in the night. The Panic of 1907, the Crash of ’29, Black Monday 1987, the Friday the 13th crash 1989, the Asia Crisis of 1997, the downturn of 2002 and the launch to bear market in 2007 – all took place in the month of October. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 5 October, 2016
Yet as far as GATA can determine, no mainstream financial news organizations or even gold market analysts have ever tried putting to any central bank a critical question about its surreptitious involvement in the gold market. The decision is another reason for news organizations and market analysts to attempt journalism. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 5 October, 2016
The financial news internet site Market Slant reports today that the federal judge handling the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against the banks that operated the daily London gold price fixing system from 2006 to 2012 has ordered the lawsuit to proceed, denying the defendants' request for dismissal. Market Slant says the judge's decision cites Deutsche Bank's confession to gold market manipulation in collusion with other bullion banks. Full Story
The following infographic comes to us from Call Levels, and it highlights nine other recent “black swan” events that will have a lasting impact on how investors approach markets. These events range from the Asian financial crisis of 1997 to the more recent Brexit panic that occurred in June 2016. Full Story
Given that its now just over a year since that last set of calculations, it made sense at this point to update the data so as to grasp how many Good Delivery golds bars held in London is spoken for in terms of ownership, versus how much may be unaccounted for. Estimating gold held in London vaults is by definition a tricky exercise, since it must rely on whatever data and statements are made available in what is a notoriously secret market, and there will usually be timing mismatches between the various data points. Full Story
So in the minds of bond buyers they’re not lending money for 50 years, but more like six months, until the ECB starts snapping them up. Which means the ECB is, in effect, directly funding the Italian government with newly-created Euros. Italy – and the rest of the peripheral eurozone countries – are thus handed an effectively-unlimited credit card allowing them to spend whatever they want, safe in the knowledge that it’s all covered by their friends in Brussels and Berlin. Wonder how they’ll handle that freedom? Full Story
That said, business is all about people, and if today’s rich are arranging for their kids to congregate at Harvard’s Business School and similarly ranked programs, for those who have a couple of hundred grand lying around, going for networking purposes might not be such a bad idea. But right now, universities as a group show worrying signs of being bloated by many of the same bubble phenomena pervading other major economic sectors. Full Story
Deflation has a bad name among today’s economists, and this should be your first clue that it might be something good. These educated Keynesians, as we’ve seen, can’t see a bubble until it explodes in their faces, at which time their zombie economy starts to wobble and nightmare possibilities abound, the worst being “it” might happen, as it did in the 1930s. They immediately turn to god (the FED chair) and pray that he or she will do what is right. As we know, Ben Bernanke built his reputation making sure "it" doesn’t happen here. Full Story
This past week, I have been sent several “stories” that the dollar is going to absolutely “crash” on September 30th, which will supposedly cause metals to rally to the moon and beyond. And, as I have noted in my Trading Room oh so often, we have had so many such “stories” in the past, and we will no doubt have many more in the future. But, “stories” are not what drive the market, despite the common erroneous belief to the contrary, as the sky did not fall this past week, and neither did the dollar. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 5 October, 2016
As the Financial Circus continues today, pushing down the precious metals prices, millions of Americans are going to get wiped out when the collapse of U.S. net worth begins in earnest. Anyone with a tad bit of common sense realizes these financial markets today are totally disconnected from reality. Full Story
The Fed in particular has painted itself into a very tight corner with its never-ending threats to raise interest rates while the rest of the world is still cutting. Millions of words have been written about its reasons for behaving this way and the difficulties of the road it has chosen. But for now it’s enough to note that Yellen et al are still at it, dropping hints that come October rates are really, seriously going up because the US is a healthy, well-run country whose borrowers should borrow more and whose voters should reward incumbent politicians with four more years! Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 5 October, 2016
Some analysts who are usually astute and show a good understanding of economics seem to put on blinders before looking at China. It’s as if, when considering China’s prospects, they forget everything they know about economics and refuse to see beyond the superficial. A recent example is Doug Casey’s article titled “Chung Kuo“. Full Story
The bearish abc pattern shown is the one we should be looking at now, since it’s got it all, Hidden Pivot-wise. The p2 secondary pivot at 2110.88 would ordinarily serve as a minimum downside objective for the near term, but my strong gut feeling is that the futures will dive straightaway to d=2090.25 if they crack the midpoint support at 2131.50. I’ve used lower-case coordinates for the downtrend simply because there is a larger, bullish ABC pattern in effect. Full Story
The current path will at some point become yet another statistic. Like each currency collapses that has come before it, the next one will be burned into the viscera and the psyche of a generation. It should serve as a warning, though sadly it will likely be forgotten again as the collective memory fades. Full Story
Gold fell below $1,300 today for the first time since the Brexit vote in June, as the dollar index rose to a two-month high. At press time, gold was down $42, at $1,270. The dollar rose amid increasing speculation that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by December. Both Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester and Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker have come out in favor of higher interest rates. Manufacturing data released Monday was stronger than expected. Full Story
I want to go on the record and state categorically that, in my opinion, technical analysis is of limited value when trying to predict the short-term movements of precious metals. However, there are millions of traders and investors out there who believe that it does work despite interventions, manipulations, and the ability of the bullion banks to fabricate a surrogate for actual physical gold by way of paper futures. Full Story
The Fed is slowly transforming itself from a national bank with a dual mandate to a national hedge fund with a mandate to manipulate all markets. For now, the market over which the Fed wields the most direct influence is the bond market. That influence can be expected to increase over time as demand for government bonds from the public and foreign central banks dries up while the government’s borrowing needs grow ever larger. Full Story
The end of the previous week was rich in signals as gold, silver and mining stocks all reversed along with the USD Index. Gold closed the week below the rising support line and the implications should not be ignored even by those who usually focus on fundamentals alone. Why? Because in the short- and medium term, the important technical developments will shape the price – not the fundamentals. Full Story
The end of U.S. dollar dominance may be unfolding in front of our eyes. No, we don't think China's ascent is the key threat; instead, key to understanding the U.S. dollar may be to understand the money market fund you might hold. Let me explain what's unfolding in front of our eyes, and what it might mean for the U.S. dollar and global markets. Full Story
On cue, gold is drifting lower ahead of this jobs report. I realize that many investors in the gold community are wondering why gold is soft during what is usually a strong seasonal period. It’s important to understand what creates the seasonal price action. The Indian love trade is the major factor, and Indian farmers are the main buyers. They are very averse to debt, like the Western gold community is. Full Story
The renminbi was added to the SDR (Special Drawing Rights) basket of currencies on Saturday October 1, 2016. Nothing changed, the dollar didn’t blow apart and the world is still functioning as normal. Why? Because the people, around the world, still accept their currencies issued by the central bank in their respective country. We will not see any changes to the system until the next crisis. The next crisis could come today, tomorrow or fifteen years from now. The next crisis will be slowed, and possibly stopped by central banks around the world “printing” trillions of units of currency. Full Story
Last week I was in beautiful Toronto, where I presented the keynote address and participated in a panel discussion at the annual Mines and Money conference. It was the first time the highly respected gathering of precious metals analysts and investors came to the Americas, and they couldn’t have chosen a better city than my hometown. Toronto has long served as a major hub for mining finance and is home to some of the world’s largest gold producers. Full Story
The Gold market continues to be lethargic. Two weeks ago, negative rumblings about Deutsche Bank pushed Gold higher out of the Half Cycle Low. But the move quickly stalled on a gold price reversal, ensuring that the current Daily Cycle (DC) would remain Left Translated. Gold’s current sluggishness is not unexpected, however. 18 weeks into any Investor Cycle should see sellers largely controlling the action, and I’d expect that to be the case with Gold until it finds an Investor Cycle Low (ICL). Full Story
A major “Sword of Damocles” overhanging global stockmarkets has been the situation with Deutsche Bank, which has a monumental derivative book and whose stock has been plunging to new lows. We have largely ignored this situation up until now, on the assumption that everyone else will until the SHTF, a strategy that has until now paid off. However, we should keep in mind that this is potentially a very dangerous situation that could dwarf the Lehman debacle and send world markets into a tailspin. Full Story
I have been pointing out for months now that something fishy is going on behind the scenes. It began last month, when I highlighted the fact that the United States had reversed a massive, long-lasting trend of exporting gold, and in fact was beginning to import record amounts of gold from Switzerland. Well, not only has this trend continued, but it has accelerated. Full Story
Goldman Sachs believes inflation pressures are starting to build. According to data from Bank of America, investors anticipate consumer prices to rise 1.3 percent annually, the highest level in 14 months, reports Bloomberg. “All of the signals are suggesting that we are now pretty close to full employment,” chief economist at Goldman Sachs Jan Hatzius said. “We’re starting to exert some upward pressure on inflation.” Brown Brothers Harriman sees this pressure stemming from two elements: rents and medical services. Full Story
For decades, the primary argument by Warren Buffett and other financial elites for not owning gold was that “gold doesn’t pay you anything.” Once the ECB took interest rates to NIRP in 2014, this argument became null and void. In a world in which bonds are charging you to hold them, gold with its ZERO yield has become attractive as an investment. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 3 October, 2016
Regardless of whether it is implemented via an emperor surreptitiously reducing the precious-metal content of the coinage or by the banking system (the central bank and the commercial banks) creating new currency deposits out of nothing, monetary inflation is a method of forcibly transferring wealth from the rest of the economy to the first users of the new or debased money. In other words, it is a form of theft. Full Story
No matter who is in the White House next year, if some form of income doesn’t arrive for the growing multitudes of downtrodden Americans (jobs, helicopter money, etc), it won’t take long to see the result – namely a crashing dollar($) that takes the bond market with it, and then stocks in the aftermath. As pointed out in earlier commentaries, we are seeing this already, where market rates are rising with Trumps improving prospects for getting into the White House. Full Story
Last week, it was the Fed’s magic boosting up the price of silver. This week, the slow slide in the silver price resumed, going all week except during peak fear about the woes of Deutsche Bank. When it looked bleakest—and the potential size of the capital-eating fines was highest—there was a wicked little rally in the metals, spiking silver up from below $19.10 to $19.70 in a few hours. However, the price reversed just as fast, on news of a settlement with the US Department of Justice. Full Story
It is true that our bet goes against a global tide of funny money that has been pouring into stocks with increasingly heedless abandon. The result is a bull market that has been chugging along since March 2009, and which may seem by now to be a kind of economic perpetual motion machine. For as we know, much of the buying is being done by companies who have used trillions in borrowed funny money, as well as their own, otherwise useless, spare cash to buy up their own shares. Full Story
Joseph Grosso - Golden Arrow Resources, Executive Chairman, CEO, and President returns with exciting news. Hailing from scenic Buenos Aires, the "Big Apple" of South America, President Grosso outlines the key differences between PMs exploration and production. Arch Crawford, head of Crawford Perspectives showcases his investing methods that he's honed over forty years. Market and astronomical anomalies indicate the potential of extreme volatility in 2017. Arch thinks the Fed does not have the remaining fire power to hold the US equities markets aloft forever. Full Story
If 2 extra executive directors are also added to the Board from the LBMA’s staffers, to bring the number of Board directors up to 12, who will these 2 people be? My money in the first instance would be on the LBMA’s senior legal counsel (for regulatory reasons) and the LBMA’s communications officer. Whether the minutes of future or past LBMA Board meetings will ever be made public is another matter, but given the persistent secrecy that surrounds all important matters in the London Gold Market, it would probably be very naive to think that real LBMA communication via, for example LBMA Board meeting minutes, will ever see the light of day. Full Story
This video examines the likelihood that gold may experience an undercut low next week as big banks enter positions ahead of the upcoming two month rally. Full Story
The trading month doesn’t always end on a Friday but when it does we like to take a look at the monthly charts. Generally, I prefer daily and weekly charts because they have more data points. However, monthly charts carry more significance than weekly charts which carry more significance than daily charts. You get the point. One reason and a good reason we expect the current correction to continue is the sector monthly charts. Full Story
The title was not meant as a play on words in reference to Operation Twist, but now that I think about it, maybe it should be. The Post-Twist financial world is far different than it was before the genius that is Ben Bernanke’s ‘bigger than yours or mine’ brain concocted a maniacal plan that would “sanitize inflation” signals from the bond market and break the then highly elevated yield curve.* Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 2 October, 2016
As the name suggests, the weekly American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) sentiment survey is an attempt to measure the sentiment of individual investors. The AAII members who respond to the survey indicate whether they are bullish, neutral or bearish with regard to the US stock market’s performance over the coming 6 months. The AAII then publishes the results as percentages (the percentages that are bullish, neutral and bearish). Full Story
By: John Rubino and Gordon T Long - 2 October, 2016
We have seen this coming for some time and is why in the spring we issued a feature report entitled "Is Deutsche Bank EU's (Lehman + Bear Stearns + Enron)**2? " We were pointing out that the Leverage at Lehman Bros, the Bond Portfolio's at Bear Stearns and the Derivatives at Enron which brought these corporations down, pales in comparison to Deutsche bank which sits on all three of these potential Tipping Points which can cause lost investor confidence and a bank run. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 2 October, 2016
The financial disaster taking place at the U.S. Government costs one heck of a lot of gold and silver. I doubt many precious metals investors understand the tremendous amount of gold and silver it takes to service the U.S. debt or supplement the massive budget deficits. I was actually quite surprised by the results when I compared the calculations. In 2015, the U.S. Federal Government paid $402 billion just to service the interest on its debt. This figure can be found at TreasuryDirect.gov. According to the Federal Reserve Q1 2016 Statistical Release, the U.S. Federal Government spent a total of $4.02 trillion in 2015. Thus, the interest on U.S. debt consumed 10% of the total budget. Full Story
Stocks are seeing great strength now after the Fed meeting and decision to keep rates on hold, as expected. There is just no reason to hike rates until after the elections, meaning December is the earliest possible rate hike in my view. I was looking for the typical fall weak/consolidating market but it seems we are going to rally into the elections so I’m trying to take full advantage of it. Full Story
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