The metals complex showed relative stability this week as the oil market suffered a historic meltdown. West Texas Intermediate Crude crashed 70% at one point this week on the continuous contract, bringing prices briefly below $7 per barrel. By Thursday, prices were trading between $14 and $18 per barrel. Full Story
The gold miners’ stocks surged to a major bull-market breakout this week! Powering decisively above their years-old secular resistance is a hugely-important technical event. It proves this gold-stock bull is alive and well, greatly improves sentiment, and puts this high-flying sector on countless more traders’ radars. New bull highs fuel self-feeding bullish psychology, as speculators and investors love chasing winners. Full Story
After a more than 50-year bear market in gold stocks, things are coming together to create virtually perfect conditions for gold stocks. Gold prices are at (or near) all-time highs in most currencies, and will likely continue to rise over the coming years. Commodity prices are at lows and still falling. Deflationary pressures are enormous and will likely persist for years to come. Full Story
As the coronavirus pandemic continues to infect populations, though in some countries it is slowing, talk has shifted to re-opening economies, and to manufacturing a vaccine that drug companies hope will not only work, but can be distributed at large enough doses to provide immunity to a wide swath of the world's population. Full Story
The Wuhan virus outbreak, and the economic lockdowns that spread globally because of it, have accelerated the trend toward a digital economy. Suddenly millions more people are working from home, through their internet connections. Millions more are also relying on Amazon for their shopping needs. Full Story
Particularly at times like these, when we’re experiencing things few would have imagined, it’s important to reach out for that which gives long term perspective and grounding. These days, it’s easy to get wrapped up in the short term and lose track of the long term. It’s no different for gold and silver. And I freely admit this is one of those “do as I say, not as I do” things, as it’s hard for me not to focus on the here and now in matters related to gold and silver. Full Story
There are as many ways to play the PM sector as there are investors. Some will only buy the big cap PM stocks for safety. Others will only buy the mid cap producers. Some will only buy a mix of big caps and mid cap producers. And then there are the PM stock investors that will only play the juniors. Each has its own advantage depending on your risk tolerance. Some of you are wondering why is Rambus’s portfolio structured like it is with hardly any big caps? Full Story
I am of the opinion that what’s happening now isn’t just another cyclical downturn that can be papered over by printing up some more money—although that’s exactly what the U.S. and other governments are doing, and in unprecedented amounts. In fact, what the world’s governments are doing is not only wrong but also the opposite of what they should be doing. Full Story
The world watches as a number of economies begin, or plan, to lift certain lockdown measures that were earlier put in place to slow the spread of the coronavirus. China may have been the first to do so when it reopened Wuhan, the industrial city of 11 million that was ground zero for the novel virus, though life there is still far from normal. Full Story
How does one explain the unexplainable? April 20 will go down once again as a day of significance. Oil prices crash below zero. Oil prices hit an unimaginable level low of negative $40.32. Buy when there is blood on the street. How many firms will go bankrupt? Oil firms, hedge funds, more. Thousands more unemployed. A pandemic raging. How many margin calls will not be met? Will even Futures Commission Merchants survive? Is this even real? Full Story
Cities and states have shut down, hospitals are overwhelmed, infections and deaths are rising exponentially, sporting events, restaurants, bars, and shopping centers are closed, and more. Unemployment is spiking higher. Bankruptcies and late payments will double or worse. Full Story
So, when the Fed increased the monetary base of the US significantly in 2008, it took Gold prices quite a long time to show price increases to catch up with the monetary base. Then, the Fed doubled the monetary base in a period of about four months. However, from around the same time the Gold price took almost three years to double, thereby only catching up very late in the game. Full Story
Tuesday closed at 2733.25 in the ES, around the lows of the session indicating that it was a successful trend day based off of Monday’s bearish setup. Now, here comes the tricky part because we are likely going to have an inside day/shakefest for Wednesday, then declare the real winner on Thursday/Friday for either the turning point to the southbound or the grinding higher in the daily 20EMA, leading the market back into its next resistances. Full Story
This doesn’t mean taking positions on bad outcomes is a loser’s game. When markets price in a goldilocks economy, there may well be certain types of insurance that are attractively priced. Incidentally, I notice that we have not removed a reference to a “lower rates strategy” from our website, where we offered to implement just that for those who would listen; alas, few act when the price is right, and right now, rates can’t go much lower, so no, the price is not right. Full Story
After watching front month NYMEX crude oil futures collapse into negative pricing on Monday, you should be sure to consider the possibility of an exact opposite scenario playing out one day soon in COMEX gold futures. Full Story
Monday’s spectacular and unprecedented collapse of oil prices is, rightly so, the subject of non-stop commentary. Already considered depressed on Friday’s close, at $18.27/bbl., the May NYMEX crude oil futures contract, at Monday’s official settlement price, had fallen to negative $37.63, down $55.90. Full Story
There’s a small descending triangle in play on the GDX chart. A small dip below the base of that pattern would create a high right shoulder of a nice inverted H&S bottom pattern. The frustrating wait for a break over the key $32 resistance zone continues, but now the countdown to “rocket launch over $32” can probably be measured in just months or weeks of time! Full Story
In mainstream economic thought, there is one primary way that the economy can go screwy. Prices can rise too fast, and this is called bad inflation. This is to be contrasted with good inflation, when prices are rising at the Goldilocks-just-right rate. Diehard Keynesians (and monetarists) do fret about falling prices. But as Ben Bernanke’s infamous “helicopter money” speech demonstrated, they think that if you increase the quantity of money fast enough you’ll never have falling prices. Full Story
While I forecasted Negative oil prices were on their way last month, it’s still SHOCKING to see it happen to such a degree. Today, the May WTIC futures contract saw the price drop to a stunning NEGATIVE $38 a barrel. Gosh, I thought we might see slightly negative oil prices, especially in the Canadian Oil Sands or Shale Oil, but I never imaged it falling to $38 with a MINUS sign in front of it. Full Story
There are a few times in an investor’s life where, as Jim Rogers once put it, you see a pile of money sitting in a corner and you can go pick it up. In other words, an investment opportunity that’s not just obvious, but has a high reward-to-risk ratio. Full Story
How a health crisis has morphed into an economic, social and political crisis. We are now bearing witness to its devastating consequences. When will we come out of this? We don’t know nor it seems does anyone else even as many try to end the lockdown. But will it work? In our main essay we look at the consequences of the health crisis and they are not pretty. Negative yield curves have once again proven their predictive powers. We look at that in our “chart of the week”. The stock market has rebounded but now it has reached a crucial point. Which way now? Indicators are not necessarily confirming this move. And what kind of recovery will it be? We show the IMF’s theory. Full Story
Investment demand for physical gold and silver is unrelenting. Buying activity actually picked up slightly last week as paper gold and silver prices drifted sideways to lower. Once again, anyone simply watching the gold price on CNBC would be shocked to know just how many people are buying gold. Full Story
The best performing metal this week was platinum, up 3.45 percent despite hedge funds cutting their net-long positions to an eight-month low. However, platinum mines in South Africa are to remain closed for time being. ETFs added 73,044 troy ounces of gold to their holdings in the trading session ended Thursday – marking the 19th straight day of inflows. Gold rose toward $1,800 an ounce this week, a level last seen in 2011, before ending the week lower. Joni Teves, strategist at UBS Group, said in a note that “gold’s journey has been quite bumpy so far, but given the macro backdrop we think the destination remains higher.” Full Story
After a long term bear market in most commodity related stocks we are starting to hear analyst talk about inflation. From a Chartology perspective the deflationary scenario is still in play but how much lower can this sector go? In tonights Weekend Report, I’m going to update some long term commodity charts we’ve been following for years to see where they are currently trading in their bear cycle. Full Story
By: Jeff Deist, President of the Mises Institute - 20 April, 2020
The Great Crash of 2020 was not caused by a virus. It was precipitated by the virus, and made worse by the crazed decisions of governments around the world to shut down business and travel. But it was caused by economic fragility. The supposed greatest economy in US history actually was a walking sick man, made comfortable with painkillers, and looking far better than he felt—yet ultimately fragile and infirm. The coronavirus pandemic simply exposed the underlying sickness of the US economy. If anything, the crash was overdue. Full Story
Maguire says: "The new 4GC contract is not being marketed by CME Group. This raises a major red flag. In fact, it increasingly looks like this contract is not fit for purpose and is just smoke and mirrors.
"All the news reports from last week through this week were touting phantom chartered airplanes full of 400-ounce bars being transported to New York. If this was true, the bullion is missing. Full Story
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