A few weeks ago, we notified you about a brand new global, physical precious metal exchange that was being built with the expectation of eventually drawing interest and pricing power away from London and New York. Today, we have an update on the status of the rollout of this new exchange. Our guest for this call is Tom Coughlin, CEO of both Bullion Capital and the new exchange called the Allocated Bullion Exchange. Full Story
With the yen currently situated on long-term support, will the BOJ risk destabilizing the foreign exchange market if they surprise the markets next week? Our educated guess is no - and expect that the yen and Nikkei will continue to move out of the negative correlation extreme they have traded in over the past two years. Because of this, we continue to favor an unhedged equity position in Japan and still like the prospects for gold - which have moved in lock-step fashion with the yen and broadly disappointed over the past year. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 24 April, 2015
The Chinese stock markets have been rocketing higher in a popular speculative mania. New Chinese investors are flocking to their local red-hot markets, borrowing heavily to buy hyper-speculative stocks. Like all past manias, this one is guaranteed to end badly. And when China’s parabolic stock indexes inevitably collapse, the global stock markets face serious risks of getting sucked into that fear-fueled stampede. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 24 April, 2015
The Central Bank of Venezuela has pawned nearly $1 billion of its gold reserves, sources close to the central bank say. The swap operation, as it is called in the financial markets, was signed with the US bank Citibank, which was chosen from a group of five international organizations, which also aspired to structure this financial instrument. Full Story
Historically, when a nation’s debt exceeds its ability to repay even the interest, it can be assumed that the currency will collapse. Typically, governments exacerbate the situation by printing large amounts of currency notes in an effort to inflate the problem away, or at least postpone it. The greater the level of debt, the more dramatic the inflation must be to counter it. The more dramatic the inflation, the greater the danger that hyperinflation will take place. No government has ever been able to control hyperinflation. If it occurs, it does so quickly and always ends with a crash. Full Story
The “fair value” of gold for 2015 is approximately $1,527, based on my empirical model for the price of gold back to 1971. The model is NOT a timing model, but is a valuation model that uses 3 macro-economic variables (not gold or silver) to calculate a “fair” value for gold. The statistical correlation between the smoothed annual price of gold since 1971 and the model projection is 0.98. It works, is logical, and projects much higher prices in the years ahead. Full Story
I’m an armchair philosopher, and I’ve always wished I’d had the opportunity to be a philosophy major, because I can navel gaze with the best of them. But since then, I’ve come to know some actual philosophy professors, and as it turns out, they tend to not get along with other philosophy professors, which makes departmental politics a little toxic. Full Story
Everyone knows that this has been a devastating bear market for the gold mining sector. If you have followed our work you know that it is the second worst cyclical bear market in at least 80 years. Obviously, gold mining stocks have been crushed. Then they became cheaper, then cheaper and then really cheap. Yet, we may not realize just how cheap this sector has become both in nominal and relative terms. Full Story
Are Biotech stocks in a bubble? This is a question that is being asked. According to an article by Bloomberg (Biotech Index in Nosebleed Territory - Up 500% In 4-years, Trades At 10X Revenues – Bloomberg Business, March 8, 2015) the 269 Biotech companies that are listed on the NASDAQ are up more than 500% in the past four years. The Biotech companies have the biggest weighting on the NASDAQ at 11.2%. Full Story
While those buybacks have buoyed stock prices, there’s also an ominous connect-the-dots warning hidden in the avalanche of stock buybacks: the stock market rally is driven more by financial engineering than by profitability. No matter how many shares a company repurchases, what really matters is the health of the underlying business. Are revenues and profits growing? Or are those profits just being spread over a small pie of shares because of share buybacks? Full Story
There is a respectable chance that the euro will collapse sometime in the next several years, with implications for employment, economic growth and investment markets on a global basis. And the biggest threat is not directly money, debt, a potentially rapidly approaching Greek default, or a failure of central banking policies – but is instead something much simpler. Full Story
Over the last three years we have seen gold trade many times in backwardation, James Turk has reported this again is occurring in London. The only explanations for this is that market participants either need gold now for whatever reason and will pay a premium to get it ...or, they fear not receiving gold contracted for in the future. The bottom line is this, for backwardation to occur, the "current" gold must be in short supply for some reason. I believe this is what we are seeing in Europe, "collateral" is in shortage and a short squeeze has pushed pricing into a Twilight Zone without logic. Full Story
If the foundation of the financial system is debt… and that debt is backstopped by assets that the Big Banks can value well above their true values (remember, the banks want their collateral to maintain or increase in value)… then the “pricing” of the financial system will be elevated significantly above reality. Full Story
Last Monday there was a meeting in Washington hosted by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) to discuss the future relationship, if any, of gold with the Special Drawing Rights[1] (SDR). Also on the agenda was the inclusion of the Chinese renminbi, which seems certain to be included in the SDR basket in this year’s revision, assuming that the United States doesn’t try to block it. Full Story
FreeGold is not a single theory but an understanding of how past events have formed a gold trail which will significantly change our monetary system in the future. It’s a set of all-encompassing explanations tying together trade and geopolitics with the monetary system. The foundation of the ideas constituting FreeGold was laid by two writers, Another and Friend of Another (FOA) and is built upon today by a third contributor, FOFOA. Full Story
Gold is up in price by 179 per cent over the past 10 years. London prime real estate is up 138 per cent over the same period, and New York prime property by 67 per cent. But modern art beat the lot, up 252 per cent in the Knight Frank Luxury Index. Call it the battle of the hard assets if you like. Then again price rises are one thing. Being able to cash out quickly – liquidity – is quite another. Estate agents and art dealers seem to have been very successful in persuading the rich to invest in property and art. Full Story
While the metals continue to meander, I still remain bullish over the next few months, and bearish into later this year. And, yes, I still believe that lower lows will be seen, as the final lows to the 3+ year correction have not yet been seen. Full Story
The silver market is broken and has been broken for a long, long time. Much longer than most people think although many people can finally SEE the problems with the market now as the paper market continues to distort the price of physical silver. It is silver derivatives and computer trading models introduced in the 1970's that really started to distort the market value and it has never been more distorted than it is today. Hundreds of Billions of silver derivative ounces are transacted by the bullion banks every year to steer and control the price of silver. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 22 April, 2015
"Regulating the gold price in the free market" was recommended to central banks by the president of the Bank for International Settlements," Jelle Zijlstra, in a speech at International Monetary Fund headquarters in Washington in September 1981. The speech, located this week by gold researcher and GATA consultant Ronan Manly, was given as a lecture memorializing the former managing director of the IMF, Per Jacobsson. Full Story
Soon to be front page news again will be Greece and their insolvency. The question will remain (for a time) whether or not they stay in the Eurozone, leave by choice or get "kicked out". I am not even sure if being forced out is a legal option, we may see. The latest pieces of news has been a claim that Greece will be funded with a monthly credit card payment of 5 billion euros by Russia ...then denied by Russia. The other news was "federal Greece", after raiding pension plans is now confiscating local reserves for the "good of the nation". The populace is getting very antsy as demonstrations and violence have begun to erupt. Full Story
The US government has annual income of approximately $3 Trillion and official debt in excess of $18 Trillion. This does not count other liabilities such as Fannie and Freddie, and massive unfunded liabilities. But assuming “only” $18 Trillion in debt (optimistic) the US has the same ratio as a family with $60K income and $360K in credit card debt. Full Story
In the investment world, there’s no such thing as a sure thing, and if anyone tells you they have such an investment, you should run the other way. Fast. But sometimes, the odds are so clearly stacked in one direction that it comes pretty close. Full Story
Don’t be misled by the title of this essay. This is not about the housing market or about whatever rates National Van Lines or PODS or any of the other moving-related services happen to be offering. Instead, this essay seeks to give the reader an understanding of the scope of the hole Medicare is in by breaking out just one small niche area and examining it rather than looking at the whole mess. This essay is, instead, about the cost associated simply with moving people. Forget about surgery, the cost of MRIs, laboratory work, doctor’s visits, medical devices, and the like. This is just about moving an ever-aging population simply from point A to point B. Full Story
By: John Browne, Senior Economic Consultant at Euro Pacific Capital - 21 April, 2015
On April 10, General Electric, which for 123 years has been one of America's best known and most highly respected companies, announced a radical return to its basic industrial roots. After years of disappointing share performance, and a campaign of criticism by frustrated investors, Chief Executive Jeff Immelt decided to spin off most of its $500 billion GE Capital arm which, if taken as a stand-alone company, would have been the seventh largest bank in the U.S. Full Story
A common refrain from commentators over the last year or so is that the bull market in U.S. equities is “long in the tooth.” The very use of this phrase implies a market which has reached a stage of decrepitude from which only bad things can result. “Long in the tooth,” in other words, implies the imminent demise of the bull and the birth of a new bear market. Full Story
You’re likely thinking that a discussion of “sound banking” will be a bit boring. Well, banking should be boring. And we’re sure officials at central banks all over the world today—many of whom have trouble sleeping—wish it were. This brief article will explain why the world’s banking system is unsound, and what differentiates a sound from an unsound bank. I suspect not one person in 1,000 actually understands the difference. As a result, the world’s economy is now based upon unsound banks dealing in unsound currencies. Both have degenerated considerably from their origins. Full Story
The upcoming FOMC meeting on April 28 – 29 could keep COMEX gold prices under some pressure. Regardless, influential Western bank economists continue to focus more on events in Asia. In the West, gold is mainly associated with extremism. Fear of impending financial disaster is the main reason Western people buy gold. In Asia, gold buying is associated with moderation. As Asian influence on price discovery increases and COMEX influence wanes, gold will trade with more intraday stability. Full Story
Look, there are so many things going on in the world that it's easy to overlook, or simply miss, some of the major news items of the day. One such story caught my eye yesterday and it occurred to me that it definitely needed our attention. The news item in question comes from the Europe edition of China Daily and I found it while scrolling through the links posted at Santa's (www.jsmineset.com). Let's start by giving you the link to the story and posting a full reprint for you to read. Full Story
I can sense a growing unease as I talk with investors and other friends, from professional market watchers and traders to casual observers. What in the Wide World of Sports is going on? It is not just that markets are behaving in an unusual and volatile manner (see chart below showing multiple double-digit moves in the last few months); it’s that the data seems to be so conflicting. One day we get data that shows the economies of the developed world to be slowing, and the next day we get positive numbers. The ship of the economy seems to be drifting rudderless. Full Story
By: Van R. Hoisington and Lacy H. Hunt, Ph.D. - 21 April, 2015
Over the more than two thousand years of economic history, a clear record emerges regarding the relationship between the level of indebtedness of a nation and its resultant pace of economic activity. The once flourishing and powerful Mesopotamian, Roman and Bourbon dynasties, as well as the British empire, ultimately lost their great economic vigor due to the inability to prosper under crushing debt levels. In his famous paper “Of Public Finance” (1752) David Hume, the man some consider to have been the intellectual leader of the Enlightenment, wrote about the debt problems of Mesopotamia and Rome. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 21 April, 2015
With the last remaining company finally releasing their year-end results, my top primary silver miners lost a combined $1.9 billion in net income in 2014. Two-thirds of the group reported significant write-downs (impairments), while the two of the largest companies suffered the highest losses. Full Story
Gold, now well into year four of a bear market, continued its familiar pattern on Monday: one step up, two steps back. My long-term correction target remains $810, although I’ll always keep an open mind about trading from the long side, or even initiating a long-term bet, whenever gold is merely creating bullish impulse legs on the hourly chart. For perspective, however, it would take a run-up to 1347, nearly 13% above these levels, to turn the weekly chart unambiguously bullish. More immediately, the June contract has come down to within inches of an 1188.50 midpoint support associated with a D target at 1168.00. Full Story
This is a topic we have made a focus over the past five-years (see here) because of growing importance in explaining change in our ever more complicated world moving forward – in terms of how we get along with each other in the world – our morphing political economy. The big picture is human frailty is being exposed now that we have reached impassable physical and technological hurdles that will limit our proliferation and integration with each other, forcing a reversal of the seemingly uni-polar world – the American Empire – that has forcefully dominated our activities since the fall of the Berlin Wall. The fact of the matter is humanity has reached its worldly limits and must now attempt to find means to survive reasserting primitive laws of survival that modern man has attempted to eradicate. Full Story
I apologize ahead of time for the length of this post. The extreme length is a function of Harry Dent’s most recent diatribe on why you should not own gold and why should “sell it short when he tells you to”. Mr. Dent has so many incorrect thoughts and what he calls “facts”, you might want to grab some popcorn for this one as we will correct the misstated facts and bogus logic. The best way to prove his logic faulty is to use his own words and charts as proof. We would like provide a link for you but reproduction is prohibited by copyright law. Since we cannot use his charts, I will describe and try to duplicate his charts. As I see it, Harry Dent is one of THE most dangerous writers out there …dangerous to the financial survival of anyone who reads his work. Full Story
The situation in the precious metals market is quite specific at this time. We have gold moving higher on low volume and moving lower on increased volume (which is bearish), but during the last few weeks miners have outperformed gold which seems to indicate strength. One of the signals that help to decide what the outlook really is comes from silver stocks. Full Story
THE Crisis concerns the biggest bubble in financial history: the epic Bond bubble… which as it stands is north of $100 trillion… although if you include the derivatives that trade based on bonds it’s more like $500 TRILLION. The Fed likes to act as though it’s concerned about stocks… but the real story is in bonds. Indeed, when you look at the Fed’s actions from the perspective of the bond market, everything suddenly becomes clear. Full Story
The powers-that-be have done a great job levitating Group One markets and suppressing Group Two markets. They have considerable resources, massive quantities of fiat currency, considerable influence over the media and government statistics, and the power of the banking cartel and “printing press” behind them. They possess the motive, means and opportunity, so there should be no surprise at their success levitating Group One markets. Full Story
As a number of analysts have noted, gold and the dollar have an asymmetrical relationship. Gold tends to do well when the dollar is falling against other currencies and it tends to be suppressed somewhat less by a rising dollar. This year, the dollar has made new highs in the move that started last July but gold has not made new lows. Full Story
Gold traders remain divided amid speculation over the timing of U.S. interest rate increases. Survey results show seven bullish, six bearish and six analysts with a hold recommendation. As of April 3, Shanghai Gold Exchange withdrawals stood at 647 metric tons (Mt). Annualized, that would come out to 2,600 Mt for 2015 versus 2,100 for last year. Full Story
In my last post, I discussed and compared different bank reserve systems. With the introduction of the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, in 1913, banks started to take larger risks expanding credit as they knew the central bank was backstopping them. With the monetary ties to gold severed in 1933, the world was essentially left with a fractional reserve banking system based on nothing but fiat money. Full Story
I believe that energy analysts are absolutely delusional to think Crude production will slow significantly, especially with Oil back near the $60 mark. During the recent, lengthy bull market, tens of billions of Dollars were invested in Crude infrastructure, so there is too much at stake to simply shut down operations and walk away. Investors and participants in any industry that has experienced a 15 year bull market won’t change their beliefs overnight – it takes time for sentiment to shift. Full Story
Economist and best-selling author Harry S. Dent Jr., returns to the show with analysis on the Greek debt crisis The Grexit is merely the tip of the iceberg, the US and most developed nations have accumulated enormous debt burdens, under the guise of entitlement programs. Given that the Grexit appears imminent, our guest thinks Spain and Portugal could be the next to face debt issues. John Embry, Chief Investment Strategist at Sprott Asset Management, returns to the show with his thoughts on the US dollar rally. Policies in Japan are undermining the yen currency, while the crude oil price plunge has devalued the Canadian Loonie, making the US Greenback appear strong. The resulting financial mirage is directing global money flows into US equities - an overvalued sector. Full Story
The bottom line is we have something concrete to watch for using the clues the chart gives us to find what direction the next move may go. If the PM complex breaks up then we’ll have a different animal on our hands. If the price action begins to decline, first breaking below the bottom rail of the blue rising wedge I showed you earlier, then we can follow the price action I’ve laid out in this Weekend Report until something changes. Full Story
It sure does seem as if the vast majority of our markets are stuck in sideways trading patterns, does it not? Just about the time some look as if they are going to mount an upside breakout, they fail and fall back down once again. The flip side is that some markets look as if they are going to stage a downside breakout, they reverse higher and back up they go. The result of all of this has been to slice and dice or chop and shred traders who are attempting to build any sort of POSITIONS BASED ON LONGER TERM VIEWS. Full Story
I don’t think medical doctors have diagnosed the condition yet but Gold Bugs know that it exists. The affliction expresses itself as a constant desire to find bullish indications in every precious metals chart or article. If the three minute chart of Gold ticks up a few pennies the worst of us are ready to start predicting that the yellow metal is heading to $5000 per ounce immediately. An article suggesting that Mr. T is buying a few more chains might make us think that this new demand for Gold will certainly drive the price higher. Full Story
Should you be stocking up on gold bullion now or waiting to see if the price correction ever reaches the miraculous 50 per cent expected by the chartists? As ever there are no sure answers but the risk-reward ratio is stacked in favor of buying bullion now and riding out any further correction, if it actually happens. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 19 April, 2015
When it comes to investing in gold, for the most part, the U.S. Gold Market is completely insane. I am not blaming Americans, as they have been totally brainwashed by the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve into believing that gold is something you wear, not invest in. This is certainly proven by the data shown in the chart below. These figures come from the World Gold Council Full Year Demand Trends Reports, and while it may be true that the data is manipulated or incomplete, it’s the best we can go by. And I believe it gives us a pretty good idea of the insanity taking place in the good ole US of A. Full Story
Mish Shedlock talks about the magnitude of the mounting Pension Problem in America and uses his home state of Illinois as a prime example. According to a State Budget Solutions, last year’s state unfunded pensions reached an all-time high of $4.7 trillion. This funding gap state public pension plans are underfunded by $4.7 trillion, up from $4.1 trillion in 2013. Overall, the combined plans' funded status has dipped three percentage points to 36%. Split among all Americans, the unfunded liability is over $15,000 per person. Full Story
Save some of your investible surplus in gold and silver, have kids, Have a beer(OR maybe a whiskey OR a stiff glass of rum ;)), take care of your parents and children, meet a new lady (or a gentleman for that matter), Build a modest house, drive a fuel efficient car, don’t air-travel too much, Enjoy your life to a moderate extent in general, but don’t burden mother earth to such an extent that the burden will become unsustainable. Full Story
Markets and stocks had a solid week until Friday when weakness set in hard off resistance. It looks like we aren’t quite ready to move higher unless we can see markets come back strong Monday but we do have several of the heavyweight leading stocks set to report next week so that may change the market landscape dramatically and quickly. Full Story
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