By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 24 March, 2017
The silver miners’ stocks have had a roller-coaster ride of a year so far. They surged, plunged, and then started surging again last week on a less-hawkish-than-expected Fed. Such big volatility has spawned similar outsized swings in sentiment, distorting investors’ perceptions of major silver miners. But their recently-reported fourth-quarter operating and financial results reveal the true underlying fundamental realities. Full Story
Dr. Paul Craig Roberts, Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy returns with perhaps the most dire news to date. He questions the validity of the official 4.7% employment figure, preferring instead the Shadowstats.com 23% unemployment number. The discrepancy arises because job seekers are considered unemployed after only a few weeks of inactivity. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) inflates the monthly figure by 100,000-200,000 jobs by way of hedonic measures. Full Story
Be cautious when playing Central Banker Russian Roulette with your savings and retirement funds. The stock market crash of 1987, the LTCM crash of 1998, the NASDAQ crash of 2000, and the global financial crisis of 2008 warned us about counter-party risk, excess debt and trusting Wall Street. Trust gold and silver more, and use fewer paper investments. Full Story
G20 Finance ministers meeting in Baden Baden last weekend agreed, on America’s insistence, to drop the long-standing commitment to free trade from the final communiqué. It is hard to know to what extent America’s position is driven by her autarkic view on world trade, or to what extent it is an acknowledgement of the fruitlessness of paying lip-service to an ideal which is never delivered. Doubtless, it’s a bit of both. Full Story
As I noted in my last COTD, there are signs popping up that stocks are about to, or have completed a very mild intermediate cycle low. The vast majority of traders decide to buy (or join the SMT) after most of the move has already happened. Last summer my biggest influx of new subs occurred right at the summer high in metals. No one wanted to join the SMT in January when I was calling the bottom. They waited till the move had rallied 180% before joining. Go figure. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 24 March, 2017
Market volatility increased dramatically in the early-1970s when the current monetary system was introduced. This shows that the generally higher levels of monetary inflation and the larger variations in the rate of monetary inflation that occurred after the official link to gold was abandoned didn’t only affect nominal prices. Real prices were affected in a big way and boom-bust oscillations were hugely amplified. Full Story
In January, the Dow Jones Industrial Average broke above the symbolic 20,000 for the first time ever. This development raised again concerns about the condition of the U.S. stock market – further gains could be a headwind for the gold market, but the end of the bull market would support the yellow metal. The valuations were at record highs even before the presidential elections, but Trump’s rally elevated them further, as the chart below shows. Full Story
Like a celestial body, gold has a number of influences affecting its trajectory. Aside from the primary direction of travel formed by flows into and out of this asset, there are also short term distortions - a type of gravity at play - which affects the market on a temporary basis - this is the parrallel world of futures and options trading. If past form is a good indicator, then we would expect the market to gravitate to where the biggest volumes are, before continuing its journey next week. Full Story
The narrative thus far – after decades of allowing themselves to be led in and out of COMEX silver futures contracts by their commercial counterparties, several managed money traders appear to have woken up to the fact they’ve been duped all along. A key component of the silver manipulation for the past 30 years has been the knee-jerk and mechanical reaction of the managed money traders to collectively sell whenever the commercials rigged prices lower beyond certain moving averages. Ditto for buying on rising prices. Full Story
In a recent update, I pointed towards the 2,335 SPX region as the next likely target in the market. This week, the market has finally obliged, and taken us to our next waypoint. As I have been noting for several weeks, the market has been much more bearish than I had expected with only a slight drop off the all-time highs. Moreover, my ideal expectations had us dropping even lower towards the 2,335 SPX region before setting up another rally attempt. Full Story
It seems absurd that Asia is willing and able to build high-speed “bullet” trains to connect large population centers while the United States struggles with an antiquated Amtrak rail system often beset with service interruptions and lethal accidents. The truth of the matter is that the major U.S. metropolitan areas are beset with massive loads of debt, including a ticking-time debt-bomb in the form of several trillion dollars in unfunded public pension funds. Full Story
Goldseek.com / Silverseek.com President and founder, Peter Spina returns to the show with his mining share analysis, from his home in the Czech Republic. Similar to the PMs sector, Prague has emerged from the former communist regime, entering a new Golden Era. Peter outlines the unique character / appeal of the central European culture, including the entrepreneurial spirit. Peter outlines the remarkable 500% return on 5 of his gold mining candidates recently announced at a Vancouver conference. Full Story
More concerning for the bulls: bank stocks, which lead to the upside, are now leading to the downside. It looks as though the ENTIRE move in the markets since election night is going to unwind. This is a major wake up call, I hope you’re paying attention. The markets have rallied on hype and hope of the economy roaring back to life... but that's not coming for another 12 months (at the earliest. Full Story
The World Economic Forum consistently ranks Canada’s banks among the world’s safest. Competent regulators have overseen stress tests, tightened lending standards and delinquency rates are low. Demographics are good and the country’s diversified economy is backed by a treasure of oil, wood, gold and other natural resources. Full Story
For those that have been following my daily updates on Snapchat (SKWealthAcademy), you know that I stated this past Tuesday that I expected silver and gold to rebound this week after a brief pause that some technical analysts said was a sign that the prices of gold and silver assets were heading lower again this week because of less than impressive follow through after the significant rise last 15 March. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 23 March, 2017
Mexico’s state oil company, Pemex, is a perfect example of the ongoing collapse in the global oil industry. Falling oil prices and declining production are putting severe pressure on the company’s financial balance sheet. It has been four long years since Pemex posted a small profit. However, since 2012, Pemex has suffered huge annual losses while its long term debt has exploded. Full Story
Neither bulls nor bears had a very satisfying day, stocks having spent the entire session screwing the pooch. Despite this, I remain mildly optimistic that the stock market is near the point of collapse. So why should this be cause for optimism? Well, if the Dow were to be cut in half, it would crush the banksters, the money managers and all of the other money-grubbing evildoers of the financial world, setting the stage for the revival of honest business. Imagine that! Full Story
After the election, we believe the price of gold came down as the market priced in higher real interest rates in anticipation of lower regulations. We indicated that this euphoria will cede to realism, meaning that regulations might not be cut quite as much. We also suggested that any fiscal stimulus on the backdrop of low employment may be inflationary. That is, expectations of higher real rates might be replaced with expectations of higher nominal rates; net, bonds might not change all that much, but the price of gold may well rise in that environment. Full Story
Like the Miles Franklin Blog itself, this week’s articles have focused as much on the quantity of “PM-bullish, everything-else-bearish” events, as the quality. As frankly, even I have been overwhelmed lately – as the terminal stage of history’s largest, most destructive fiat Ponzi races through its cancerous terminal stage, en route to the spectacular, world-changing event it was destined to produce when it was launched on August 15th, 1971. Full Story
The fundamental factors have hardly changed; money printing will accelerate as this is the only tool that the central bankers have at their disposal. India, the Islamic world, China, et al, will continue to consume most of the annual production of the physical metal, adding to an already tight physical market. This first bull phase of this market is over and so is its correction, the second phase has started and will challenge and beat the previous all-time high. Full Story
There is a combo chart for the PM complex I’ve been following, on the short term 10 month daily look, which shows a potential HS bottom forming. I put a neckline symmetry line on the charts to get a feel for where the low for the right shoulder may form. Some are fairly parallel to the neckline like GLD, SLV and the HUI with GDXJ and SIL being the most unparalleled. The CDNX is showing the most weakness as it probably has to do with some of the small cap energy companies. Full Story
Yet, I also highlight the smaller degree potentially “bearish” set ups in order for you to know when you need to protect your account, especially when we get the first indications that the smaller degree primary bullish potential does not follow through. But, for now, the market is still presenting us a bullish potential to start the upcoming week, especially in the GDX. As far as gold and silver are concerned, again, I am going to give them the bullish benefit of the doubt as well. But, I must admit that the potential a-b-c structure on the daily chart in silver is a close second in the running. Full Story
Hopefully the stock market is going to be allowed to continue correcting. This will clear out bullish sentiment and allow the stock market to complete both an intermediate and yearly cycle low. Coinciding with this, the dollar is poised to continue lower and complete a failed daily cycle. Full Story
Back in the 1990s when businesses started going online they frequently didn’t realize that their new networking gear came with simple default passwords like “admin”. So a whole generation of early hackers simply scanned the web for companies that had inadvertently exposed themselves in this way, siphoning off (probably, no one really knows) billions of dollars and causing various other kinds of mischief. Now that process is repeating with the Internet of things (IoT). As pretty much every device in homes and businesses is imbued with sensors and connected to internal networks and/or the broader Web, hackers are exploiting the many resulting vulnerabilities. Full Story
The rare, exhilarating (for bears) selloff also kicked into high gear two options positions we’d acquired hours ahead of the move — one using call options in VXX; the other, DIA puts. The former doubled in price in under two hours, while the latter tripled from the 0.72 price where subscribers had acquired them earlier in the session. The timing was not mere luck. In the case of the VXX trade — essentially a bet that the steady downtrend that has persisted for than a month would reverse sharply — we used two Hidden Pivot targets to nail the precise low. Full Story
I’ve been watching the herds to try to determine just when the interest rate topic among the best and brightest (as chosen by the media) would start to pivot from ‘rising rates!’ hysterics that have been locked and loaded in the public psyche since the US election to a sort of ‘rut roh, maybe we got played again… ‘ realization that Rome – and a Great America – are not built in a day. Full Story
Extreme levels in consumer confidence, investor sentiment, valuations and a steep incline in stock prices have historically marked market peaks. A week ago Investor’s Intelligence bullish sentiment among investment advisors hit its highest level in 30 years. That previous peak corresponded to the market peak in 1987 (the 1987 stock crash was the steepest in history). Consumer confidence hit a 16-year high. The prior peak in consumer confidence occurred right before the tech bubble crashed in 2000. Full Story
A few analysts are once again beating the drums for much lower gold and silver prices - supposedly just around the corner. They mistake the testing of a recent breakout for a turnaround in the main trend. In the process they are sowing confusion. Here are some charts that show the main trend, along with reasons why the price of gold and silver is on track for a sharp rise, thanks to bullish fundamentals. Full Story
Regardless of how hawkish the Fed frames possible future rate hikes this year, we suspect a cyclical breakdown in the US dollar index to unfold. Moreover, by our estimates of the leading market breakdown in US Treasuries last November, the window for a dollar break appears to be now open and extended through April. Full Story
Oil is telling us that growth is actually very weak, while Gold and Emerging markets and bonds are telling us inflation is picking up (a weak $USD sends Gold and Ems higher while it would depress bonds). Weak growth and higher inflation… that’s called STAG-flation. Meanwhile, the financial media is proclaiming that 2017 will be the year of major $USD strength and a roaring US economy. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 21 March, 2017
With the Trump euphoria pushing the broader markets to new all-time highs, it has impacted precious metals demand considerably… especially in February. Precious metals investors believing the White House “Grandiose plans”, of making American great again, have cut back seriously on their precious metals buying. Full Story
While researching this topic I came across literally scores of similarly disconcerting statistics. For instance, the difference between the income and employment status of young males who grew up in two-parent versus one-parent homes is staggering, especially when you realize how fast the number of single-parent homes – generally, though not always, led by the mother – is rising. Less than half of US children live in a traditional family setting, according to Pew Research. Full Story
For the third time in two years, the Federal Reserve lifted interest rates 0.25 percent last week following the previous week’s phenomenal jobs report. The move was seen as more dovish than many market analysts had anticipated. BCA Research went so far as to call it an “unhike,” citing a number of factors, including forecasts of only three rate hikes in 2017 instead of four. Full Story
Today’s chart shows this in the form of a minor rally pattern whose target coincides with the big-picture target. The E-Minis have struggled to reach it, but until such time as they dip beneath the pattern’s point ‘C’ low at 2351.00, the target will remain viable in theory. The futures would become a ‘mechanical’ buy, stop 2350.75, if they come down to 2364.00, but I’ll instead suggest watching from the sidelines and — if you’re a permabear — cheering the futures on if the stop-loss is hit. Full Story
Seriously? “Simon Black” (it’s a nom de plume) wrote an article titled “Demand For Physical Is Collapsing.” He focused on retail bullion demand numbers. The headline and the content is largely fake news as it focuses on the demand for minted coins vs the paper gold market. We’re not really sure about the intent of article, but the content was devoid of any relevance to the actual global demand for physical gold. Full Story
It is my privilege now to welcome in Craig Hemke of the TF Metals Report. Craig runs one of the most highly respected and well known blogs in the industry and has been covering the precious metals for close to a decade now, and he puts out some of the best analysis on banking schemes, the flaws of Keynesian economics and evidence of manipulation in the gold and silver markets. Craig, it's great to have you back and thanks for joining us again today and how are you? Full Story
The best performing precious metal for the week was palladium, up 3.96 percent. In a note this week Richard Hatch at RBC Capital Markets outlined his preference for palladium over platinum as government policy is shifting to smaller, gas-powered vehicles versus the use of diesel engines. China earlier this year extended its tax incentive scheme to get buyers to favor smaller, gas-powered vehicles in the world’s fastest growing market for cars. Full Story
The head is the December 2015 low and the possible right shoulder is the December 2016 low. Right now the price action is testing the 10 month ema which has done a good job of showing support and resistance going back to the 2000 low. The top rail of the expanding downtrend comes in at 1305. If gold can breakout above 1305 then the potential neckline will come into play next. Full Story
The precious metals complex enjoyed a strong week mostly due to a post-Fed explosion on Wednesday. Although gold stocks sold off to end the week, they finished up almost 5% for the week. Gold gained 2.4% on the week while Silver gained 2.9%. The miners enjoyed massive gains following the previous two rate hikes and that has some optimistic about a repeat scenario. However, the miners and metals need to prove they can recapture their 200-day moving averages before we become optimistic. Full Story
Now that this Cycle has given way and is in the declining portion, there is just no way it ends until it at least becomes oversold and touches the lower Bollinger bands. That would be the best case scenario for the bulls. Therefore, it is my expectation that crude will fall another $7, at a minimum. Thereafter, it’s really anyone’s guess whether this ICL becomes a double bottom retest (around $42/$43) with the last ICL. Or in the worst case, this becomes a rout/crash that can be compared to the 2008 or 2014 declines. In that case, the downside over just the next two months is as far down as the low $30’s! Full Story
Every week we talk about the supply and demand fundamentals. We were surprised to see an article about us this week. The writer thought that our technical analysis cannot see what’s going on in the market. We don’t want to fight with people, we prefer to focus on ideas. So let’s compare and contrast ordinary technical analysis with what Monetary Metals does. Full Story
Bob Hoye of Institutional Advisors rejoins the show in rare form with timely market commentary and historical perspective. Although a confirmed gold bull, Bob Hoye questions the validity of the gold manipulation story, preferring instead to monitor the gold / silver ratio. Peter Grandich of Peter Grandich and Company notes, "I haven't been this bullish on gold in 20 years." The duo discuss today's FOMC meeting where concerns over domestic inflation and an overheating economy lead Fed officials to raise the lending rate. Full Story
It seems, to almost nobody’s surprise, the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates 25 basis points (bp) for the second time in three months. They also hinted at more to come later in 2017. The Fed had “confidence in the path the economy is on.” Yet the market viewed it all as benign as stocks, bonds, and gold all rallied (yields that move inversely to bond prices fell). The US Dollar also fell. The Fed noted that inflation was close to its 2% target. They did signal that any future rate increases would be “gradual.” Full Story
I don't talk to my classmates from business school anymore, many of whom went to work in the financial industry. Why? Because, through the lens we use here at PeakProsperity.com to look at the world, I've increasingly come to see the financial industry -- with the big banks at its core -- as the root cause of injustice in today's society. I can no longer separate any personal affections I might have for my fellow alumni from the evil that their companies perpetrate. Full Story
Readers of a certain age will remember when state universities were a bit spartan but extremely cheap. Middle class families could send their kids to Ohio State or UCLA without taking out a second mortgage, and the kids could focus on classes and fun instead of juggling multiple part-time jobs to cover room and board. Full Story
The long anticpated March FOMC came and went, and, as was widely expected, the Fed raised the key Fed rate another 25 basis points (bp) to 0.75%–1.00%. Canada’s bank rate remains at 0.50%. It is the first time in years that Canada’s bank rate is below the Fed rate. The rate hike was widely telegraphed in advance, but if there was a change it was the Fed’s hawkish tone before the rate hike contrasted with a more subdued mood following the rate hike. Some termed the rate hike as the “dovish hike.” The markets had widely expected that the Fed would hike four times in 2017 but the latest indication from the Fed is that it might only be three. Full Story
A solid week for stocks and markets and metals, mainly after the Fed increased interest rates 0.25%. All good and trending higher nearly anywhere you look so ride the wave until it ends. It doesn’t really matter what someone says, it matters how the market, stocks or commodity in question is acting so I don’t bother to give a big spiel when it’s not needed. The trend is up. Full Story
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