By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 24 October, 2008
-A 'bloodbath' on Wall Street - just in time for Halloween…the gloom over growth expectations is now global… -The Fed may boldly go where no Fed has gone before: below 1%…OPEC cuts production…the yen clobbers the dollar… -Look for changes on restaurant menus…your reaction to Big Al's testimony…and more! Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital, Inc. - 24 October, 2008
Insanity is often defined as repeating the same action while expecting a different result. Recent Congressional activity to push through this year’s second economic “stimulus” package certainly indicates that many of our political leaders may have special needs. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence LLC - 24 October, 2008
During this unprecedented month where the flagship S&P 500 has plummeted 23.0%, it isn’t surprising this brutal stock-market selloff is monopolizing investors’ attention. Thus gold’s poor performance is largely flying under the radars. Month to date, this metal is down a massive 15.6%! This combined with the intense stock fears have led to an unthinkable 46.4% October decline in the HUI gold-stock index. Full Story
By: Jon Nadler and The Gold Report - 24 October, 2008
Jon Nadler, Kitco’s well-known senior investment products analyst, elicits both criticism and acclaim for opinions that some characterize as contrarian. In this installment of an exclusive interview with The Gold Report, he brings his three decades of experience to bear (no pun intended) on the outlook for gold, promoting the precious metal as a key asset in a balanced portfolio, as well as for its intrinsic value and “insurance” attributes. Full Story
The lack of transparency in dark pools and dark books, lack of ability to evaluate counterparty strength, conflicts of interest, and the continuing stagflation and impending credit bubble bursts certainly do not bode well for the future or for portfolios, unless one implements an approach such as the following which addresses these issues. Full Story
Perhaps the most interesting development during the intensification of the credit crisis is that the price of gold did not climb higher than it did. Upon the initiation of the crisis in August 2007, the price of gold surged reaching a high of $1002.95 on March 14, 2007. Since then the cost of the precious commodity has fluctuated with the most recent price action sending it to recent lows of 725.74. Full Story
The question now is what should investors do? For the most part, we would suggest holding precious stocks in anticipation of a major rally. Each investor must however, make their own decision depending on their investment horizon; sell everything, hold all or selected positions or seek out opportunities in this time of danger and crisis? Full Story
Now, I really want to be an optimist. And it’s my natural inclination to be a contrarian, to buy stocks when fear is high and prices are low. And given the massive movement down in the markets in just a few months, we shouldn’t be surprised to see a multi-week or multi-month counter rally starting anytime. Longer term though - I believe there is a strong case to be made for something far more seriously negative lying ahead - something between an orderly, Japanese style depression if we’re lucky - or the beginning of a new Dark Ages if we’re not. Full Story
By: David Morgan, Silver Investor - 24 October, 2008
Baby boomers, with every year that you get older, do you become more and more afraid of retiring? I don’t blame you at all. The worldwide economic slowdown epidemic that is forcing homeowners into foreclosure, halting consumer spending, driving up credit card bills and crashing stock exchanges on a global basis are seriously hurting many baby boomers’ plans for retirement. Full Story
By: David N. Vaughn, Gold Letter, Inc. - 24 October, 2008
For those who believe gold will be worthless in the coming years then I guess that leaves common barter to survive. But how did we even arrive at this mess? Let’s go back to the year 2004 when derivatives were new and bringing excitement as a new-fangled and exhilarating investment vehicle. Full Story
The stock and commodity markets have been especially hectic the past two weeks. Interestingly, the stock market moves have been so large and powerful that one must pause here and conclude that the US Plunge Protection Team (PPT) has been at work overtime to prop up and boost US stocks. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 24 October, 2008
Although this ignores the ugly effect of taxes, which inexorably grinds the original dollar down to zero as it goes from hand to hand, it is also a good example of the velocity of money (the number of times per year that a dollar changes hands)… Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 24 October, 2008
If Kirk Kerkorian’s financial empire is crumbling, can Donald Trump’s even shakier financial empire be far behind? They’ve both gotten filthy rich by leveraging themselves to the eyeballs, so it stands to reason that both would be on the ropes with asset values now collapsing across-the-board. Kerkorian’s mounting problems were reported yesterday on the front page of the Wall Street Journal. Full Story
By: Short Fuse & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 23 October, 2008
-Wall Street saw the seventh-biggest point drop in history on Wednesday…71% increase in foreclosures… -A bailout plan for struggling homeowners…protests at the Mortgage Bankers Association convention… -Mass layoffs becoming more prevalent…the Founding Father of the credit crisis heads to the Hill…and more! Full Story
The USDollar rally in the last several weeks has been remarkable. At closer examination, it highly resembles a spurt prior to death. Imagine an old man who just had a heart attack, lost feeling in certain body parts, his mind not working right, plenty of nonsense gibberish coming from his mouth, and now he is dancing hard on some last gasps. The vast liquidation movement is akin to the old man going through an embalming process while dancing atop the tables at the funeral parlor, as bidding proceeds for his cadaver. Full Story
-Former fed Chairman Greenspan's opening remarks today before the House Oversight Committee about a “once-in-a-century credit tsunami” and his “state of shocked disbelief” about the recent credit crisis. -House Oversight Committee Representatives Sarbanes and Murphy address former fed Chairman Greenspan and former Treasury Secretary Snow. Full Story
SO HANK PAULSON, Ben Bernanke and George W. Bush got their wish. The US Dollar is now the world's strongest currency. Aw...shoot! "I believe that a strong Dollar is in our nation's interest," claimed Henry Paulson in his first speech as US Treasury secretary, made at Columbia University two years ago. It's a phrase he then parroted time and again, repeating the formula first dreamt up by Robert Rubin 13 years earlier. Full Story
Demand for physical precious metal is welling up, with significant and growing premiums being paid for physical metal, due to smart money migrating into the tangible space before it is widely understood by the general investing public the true extent of mismanagement and malfeasance at the highest levels of our existing monetary order. Full Story
At this particular point in time it matters little where you put your money or investments since practically anything other than investing in a “short selling” product has produced a negative return. Stock Indices, Energy Markets, Bond, Notes and commodities in general are all in a free fall of sorts. Full Story
In other words, the metals, and perhaps oil as well, have NOT appreciated in a manner consistent with money supply growth as reflected by the broader money supply figures, i.e., money AND credit. So if the assets my readers and I invest in have not appreciated in a manner consistent with the credit inflation that, at a minimum, M3 would suggest has occurred, why would M3’s contraction translate to a collapse of those asset prices? Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 23 October, 2008
It seems like new Fed facilities are now being created on a daily basis. Soon everyone will be asking what the facility du jour is on any given day. The latest Fed facility is up to $540 billion in financing to be doled out though a program run by JP Morgan Chase & Co. to purchase from mutual funds certificates of deposit, bank notes and commercial paper. The program, to be called the Money Market Investor Funding Facility, is designed to revive the market for commercial paper, which consists of the critical short-term loans used to fund the liquidity needs of most major businesses. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The MOGAMBO GURU - 23 October, 2008
This is Truly, Truly Staggering (TTS)! And to show you how staggering, perhaps it is time for a Mogambo Pop Quiz. Answer this multiple-choice question: 'Inflation in the money supply is the precursor to…' Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 23 October, 2008
There’s real danger lurking in the markets, so we won’t beat around the bush. First off, the Dow Industrials look like they’re headed down to at least 6195. If so, that would represent a further drop of 27% from yesterday’s settlement price of 8519. Measured from the all-time high at 14198 recorded almost exactly a year ago, the decline would equal 56%. Full Story
By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 22 October, 2008
-May have to live off the fat of the land…downscaling of the global economy… -Is a sucker's rally around the corner?…the Boomer Bust… -Gold coins in high demand…just when you thought it was safe to get back in the water…and more! Full Story
While there is no soft solution at this point, the best we could hope for is that the damage will be quick to come and quick to pass. But the only real way for that to happen is for house prices to fall to the point where ready buyers are available. And that entails workouts between lenders and borrowers, or outright foreclosures, to clean up the mess and allow the market to function as it certainly can, and will again… if left to its own devices. Full Story
By: John Browne, Senior Market Strategist, Euro Pacific Capital - 22 October, 2008
Most Americans have come to accept the simple truth that we have eroded our national wealth by consuming far more than we produce. With this understanding taking hold, and with the severity of the financial crisis spreading, government has an opportunity to radically change course to put the nation on a different economic path. But rather than making a meaningful turn, all our politicians are willing to do is put their foot on the accelerator. Full Story
YOU MIGHT LIKE to know, if you put store by such things, that the US stock market just sank to a 14-year low against gold. With the Dow Jones index dipping below 9,000 last week, the price of gold held near $850 an ounce – at least until last Thursday's AM Gold Fix in London. (It's since lost $100; more in a moment.) Full Story
As the price of silver pulled back under $10 an ounce recently, I started loading up on the white metal. Or, I should say, I tried to load up. While I was easily able to buy silver coins with numismatic value, my first attempts to buy silver bullion coins met with frustration. I think this says a lot about the silver market right now. On paper, it’s cheap. But in the real, physical market, silver is getting very precious indeed. Full Story
Welcome to the opening ceremony of a modern depression. The effects of the financial shock are starting to make themselves felt in my neck of the woods. Neighbors on three sides not involved even peripherally in the financial markets are unemployed now. Vacations for the year have been cancelled. Full Story
By: Dr. Ron Paul, U.S. Congressman - 22 October, 2008
In the midst of highly unpopular bailouts of Wall Street, many justifications have been given about why Washington feels the need to act. Some claim that capitalism and the free market are to blame, but we have not had capitalism. If you compare our financial capital to our aggregate debt, this would be obvious. Full Story
Most of us know by now that a lot of toxic debt has been filling up the balance sheets of our financial institutions creating one heck of a financial meltdown. What we do not know is what the solutions to those problems are going to create in terms of human emotion. Full Story
The Sage of Omaha, the world’s richest man has announced that he is back in the market for common stocks for his own portfolio. As ever Warren Buffett has caught the crowd off guard with his investment logic, and there has been no groundswell of buyers following in his path. But equally by his own logic the world’s most successful investor ought to be snapping up gold and silver stocks. Full Story
Those who benefit by having the right to print money have kept a lid on real money by 1) manipulation of the electronic markets 2) intimidation of the financial community and the press and 3) rationing of gold and silver bullion. Note that open interest in gold and silver on COMEX is dwindling. This is a good sign and I hope it continues. If speculative longs don't come in to the market, then they can't be flushed out later. If the only longs left are those who intend to take delivery, then we will see a price explosion, probably before we even get to the delivery period. Full Story
By: Frank Holmes and The Gold Report - 22 October, 2008
Expect short-term hesitancy in the upward movement of the gold price until liquidity returns to the markets, says Frank Holmes, CEO and chief investment officer at U. S. Global Investors and co-author of the new book “The Goldwatcher: Demystifying Gold Investing” (John Wiley & Sons). In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, he predicts gold will go to $1,000, even $2,000, over the next two years. A growing money supply due to a change in government policies will help lift some juniors out of their misery, too. Holmes advises selective nibbling until conditions improve. Full Story
The injection of capital and elimination of caps on swap lines between foreign central banks and the Fed have engineered modest improvement in credit indictors over the past week. In addition, to our close observation of Libor fixings and the LIBOR-OIS spread, we also pay close attention to the TED spread as an indicator of financial health. The TED spread has narrowed by 169 points, but the elevated reading of the VIX indicates continued fears in market. However, the improvement in the TED spread is an indication of the market slowly beginning to function. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 22 October, 2008
The Fed is now giving foreigners 'unlimited amounts of dollar funds', and yet I cannot get another dollar with which to turn my ordinary burger-and-fries dinner into a Grande Feast of double fries and two perfectly-fried all-beef patties? Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 22 October, 2008
Even though stocks had sold off pretty hard the night before, we were mildly bullish at the opening on Tuesday, mainly because LIBOR rates supposedly were at last starting to thaw. We say “supposedly” because it’s quite possible the banks have been flat-out lying about how much they’ve been paying for unsecured loans from other banks. Full Story
By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 21 October, 2008
-The Oracle of Omaha is bullish on stock prices…but then, everything is bound to do better than cash… -The hungry mob wants more bread - and the Fed is eager to provide…waiting until the last possible second to act… -China is slowing…you may want to start stocking up on gold…and more! Full Story
By: Gary Dorsch, Editor, Global Money Trends - 21 October, 2008
With two weeks left before the US presidential election, is Arizona Senator John “Maverick” McCain’s sprint for the White House at a dead-end? His challenger, Illinois Democrat Barack Obama raked in $150 million in donor contributions from domestic and possibly foreign sources last month, and is planning an unrelenting brainwashing campaign until Election Day, in order to cement his lead in the opinion polls, and guide the Democrats to complete control of the US-government. Full Story
While it may be a stretch to conclude that Bernanke’s speech single-handedly sparked a rally in the markets, that Bernanke helped switch the focus away from worries over another Great Depression to expectations of another stimulus package was nonetheless impressive. For that matter, any day that the Fed is not scrambling to expand an emergency lending program, holding secretive meetings with insolvent entities, or seriously considering cutting interest rates again can also be considered a good day. Full Story
By: Steven Saville, Speculative Investor - 21 October, 2008
As if Paul Krugman winning the Nobel Prize in economics isn't reason enough for us to be less-than-sanguine about the future, everywhere we look we see well-respected analysts advocating increased government regulation and spending -- effectively the same policies that transformed a financial crisis into a drawn-out depression during the 1930s -- while completely ignoring the root of today's problems. Full Story
This article seeks to formulate a stocks bear market accumulation investment strategy following the recent market falls that have taken stock prices down far beyond 30% from their highs set a year ago, even the ongoing bounce still leaves the major western stock indices more than 30% off their highs. Full Story
By: Jason Hommel, Silver Stock Report - 21 October, 2008
All of this ought to give confidence to silver buyers today. These are historic low prices for silver, even the premiums. Premiums will not drop below 20% minimum until the public starts dumping, once again, and that probably won't take place until after a major price run up, at the end of this bull market in silver that ought to last about another 15 years. And premiums need to maintain at about 30%, to encourage new manufacturing of new silver products. Full Story
Most of us have junior explorers in our portfolio, and we wish we had the money we spent on them, instead of holding onto the stock Some of them have fallen off a cliff and the market cap is now less than the company’s ‘cash on hand’! Full Story
I was just listening to Ron Paul on the latest Bail-Out of banks. He disapproved of the Bail-Out because he claims that it will destroy the financial system as we know it by destroying the dollar's value and creating hyper-inflation. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 21 October, 2008
Does Bernanke think that monetary inflation produces price inflation everywhere except here in the USA? Hahaha! I don't remember Mr. Friedman saying that! Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 21 October, 2008
Historians have never quite agreed on what caused the Great Depression, but if there’s another, no one will be able to say it occurred because the central bank did not act aggressively enough. Indeed, Bernanke and Paulson have done everything but shower hundred dollar bills on the citizenry. Not that that would have accomplished any more than the mountain of electronic dollars that have been credited to the accounts of shaky banks throughout the Western world. Full Story
By: Theodore Butler and Israel Friedman - 20 October, 2008
When the total shortage comes, the biggest demand will be for Eagles and 1000 oz bars. Eagles will continue to have the biggest premium and after this will be a big demand for 1000 oz bars. These bars are what big investors and especially users will chase after. The key is for you to buy before that big rush comes. Full Story
By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 20 October, 2008
-At least we'll always have Argentina…the empire of debt is beginning to crumble - hmm…why does that sound so familiar? -Cursed by success…"We're all Keynesians now"…brace yourself for the fiscal stimulus… -It's coming dear reader…where you can find some of the greatest opportunities of your lifetime…and more! Full Story
In your face, Paul Volcker. In your face, Ben Bernanke. In your face, Al Abelson. In your face, DeLong, Rogoff and Johnson. In your face, New York Times. In your face, Wall Street Journal. You think you can take us gold bugs down. We have just gotten off the canvas, and we are going to knock you out. Full Story
The first chart we look at is that of monthly gold. In terms of significant observations, perhaps the most profound is that unlike precious metals shares volatility has rolled over, creating a divergence of sorts. Why is this occurring? Well, for one thing, the physical shortages in the metals are ‘no joke’, which means as increasing numbers attempt to secure wealth in real money, despite the deflationary influence of collapsing paper markets prices hold firm. Full Story
Earlier last week I noticed the furrowed brows on the CNBC media-bots as they pouted and exclaimed that the S&P500 is trading at 2003 levels. But by the end of the week Warren Buffett, champion of the common man, came to the rescue by saying its time to buy back into the broad market. I wonder if he is buying PM stocks, since the $XAU is trading at 1984 levels? Full Story
In today’s turbulent market, we as investors need to focus on future investment opportunities which are now selling at huge discounts. In reviewing the uranium market, it seems clear that there is little downside risk to the price of uranium short term. All other economic factors staying equal, I don’t see this changing as the cost of mining is too high to warrant a price decrease below $50. Full Story
The reason why commodities and stocks have been collapsing is liquidity problems and the consequent threat of deflation, and the collapse has been made far worse as a result of the extreme leveraging that had earlier been employed in the markets, which has resulted in a destructive vicious circle as each downleg triggered a fresh wave of selling as stops and margin calls kicked in. Full Story
Conspicuously absent from the international dialogue on global financial disaster is the idea of criminal intent and/or negligence. Thus far, mainstream media pundits unanimously excuse the motivation behind the insinuation of evermore complex derivative math into the financial matrix as so much ignorance and therefore accident. Full Story
This past week was one of the wildest in our memory. The VIX indicator, a measure of fear and greed and volatility in the market, went above 80 before reversing and closing over 10 points lower. The VIX trades inversely to the stock market (S&P 500). This was a record level for the current version of the VIX indicator, although it only goes back to 1990. Full Story
The opening section of this week’s letter is inspired by the email of a subscriber who is extremely knowledgeable in precious metals and fiat money creation. In essence his theme is not to deploy capital until he sees ‘the whites of inflation’s eyes’ in the form of all that ‘money’ created by central banks actually gaining velocity, gaining entry into the marketplace and changing hands instead of sitting in the banks and being used merely as a life preserver. Full Story
Most of us who have been ripped off and financially hurt by the market manipulators usually develop a desire to see their efforts defeated and destroyed from the US financial markets. In my case, they have swindled me out of much money over the past 40 years that it makes me sick. I particularly have been hit whenever I try to enter the gold and silver futures markets. Full Story
In previous Dollar Death Ray articles we saw how size of the U.S. Federal Reserve balance had exploded. That financial frenzy continues. In its most recent report, the Federal Reserves balance sheet, after appropriate adjustment, was 46% larger than a year ago. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 20 October, 2008
As the U.S. economy sinks into a quagmire, colleges and universities are going to be especially hard hit, since they long ago became unaffordable for most Americans. Until recently, the exorbitant cost of a college education didn’t matter as much, since student loans were plentiful and parents could take out home equity loans to cover what they could not afford. Full Story
The weekly chart shows gold breaking below the important $850 level and closing at $787.70, for an 8% loss for the week, putting gold into negative territory for the year. The $730 level looms below. As of now, the earlier Sept. low has not been breached and it may offer support for a higher low to hold. Full Story
1st Hour: Headline news & Market Weatherman Forecast. Spotlight Stock Picks with big dividends. The International Forecaster and Host Chris Waltzek answer listener questions. 2nd Hour: - Andre Eggelletion: Thieves In The Temple - Jim Rogers: A Bull In China Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 19 October, 2008
Gold and silver continue to be manipulated so that there is a dichotomy between the physical and paper markets. This is due to SEC strong-arming by its ban on shorting of financial stocks, and the threat of extending that ban and the potential for requiring public disclosure of short positions. This was done to remove specs from the COMEX and TOCOM by threatening to destroy their profitability in shorts, which is the only place you can consistently make big money under current market conditions. Full Story
Stock markets around the globe (apart from Iraq of all places) have been beaten into absolute submission. In the flight to liquidity or as I put it, “Selling for the sake of selling” rarely anything is spared and this is where value investors start to feel like mugs. You can feel the fear starting to tighten round your neck, you start to fear for everything you have created, your family, and your home and then all of a sudden you wake up. Full Story
If gold had been retained as a component of the banking system, there would have been no need to invent credit default swaps, and the unprecedented destruction of bank capital would have never occurred. Gold is unique among financial assets in that it has no counterpart as a liability in the balance sheet of someone else. Gold is the only financial asset that will survive any consolidation of bank balance sheets. Full Story
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors - 19 October, 2008
We will look at how the retreat of the American consumer will affect the stock market. Has the recent drop (can we say crash, gentle reader?) in stock market valuations given us an opportunity to find value? We look at some very powerful evidence that suggests that may be so. Then we look at the counter to that view. Are we at the bottom, or is there more pain? And given the current state of affairs, how should we then invest? Where do we put our money to work when the dust settles, as it surely will. Full Story
If Warren is right about inflation - and both gold and silver have a fixed supply so they just have to go up in value with inflation - then the currently bombed out shares in precious metals just have to be the best buy in the entire stock market. I expect his own precious metal shareholdings will be kept quiet as he will want to buy as much as possible before anybody catches on. Full Story
This week will be a slightly different format than usual. I am going to present a plethora of charts and indicators I like to follow. The pain we have been feeling is real and not likely to end right away. The good news is that precious metals and related shares will be the foundation of the gains to be made over the next few years once this panic selling and liquidation abates. Full Story
By: Jason Hommel, Silver Stock Report - 19 October, 2008
I've listed two major auctions now, live, at seekbullion.com .
My 90% Auction ends Monday, October 20th, Noon Eastern time, or 9AM, Pacific.
My 200 Engelhard 100 oz. bar auctions end Wednesday, October 22nd, 3PM Eastern time, or Noon Pacific. It's a series of 30 auctions that close a minute after each other, over 30 minutes. The last auction is for 50 bars. Full Story
A man in the audience who identified himself as a Comex gold trader asked how he could protect himself against U.S. government intervention to obstruct delivery of gold due on the December contract. I replied that unfortunately the only defense against such lawlessness by the government might be the Second Amendment. Full Story
Adrian Day’s reputation for discovering big winners adds credibility to the global investing pioneer’s insights, which he is sharing with The Gold Report via excerpts from recent articles in Adrian Day's Global Analyst. Discussing in Part 1 what led to the current crisis, he noted that the same folks who caused the problem by initiating unsustainable credit practices seem to have taken charge of trying to resolve it. Expanding on that point, he now calls attention to the government’s role in creating – or at least aggravating – the mortgage mess that precipitated the credit collapse. Full Story
Some people over the years have had some familiarity with the work of the famous Russian physiologist and experimental psychologist Ivan Petrovich Pavlov (1849-1936), who won a Nobel Prize for his work on conditional reflexes and behaviorism. Full Story
By: Joseph Brusuelas, Merk Investments - 19 October, 2008
After the heaviest week of Fed talk and macro data releases in recent memory, the calendar will see a very light week of rhetoric and economic releases. Monday, will see the publication of the Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators, Thursday the weekly jobless claims data and the week will conclude with the publication of the September existing home sales. Full Story
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