Calpers also faces an extraordinary dilemma. It is drastically underfunded, even using relatively aggressive assumptions about future long-term investment returns. These assumptions do not take into account the current policies of the Federal Reserve and other central banks. As analyzed herein, when lower returns are taken into account, there can be a multiplying of the shortfalls - and a multiplying of taxpayer burdens. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 23 September, 2016
Gold surged sharply this week after the Yellen Fed yet again chickened out on raising its benchmark interest rate. Gold-futures speculators’ irrational fear of Fed rate hikes has been a major drag on gold. And rate-hike risks just plummeted in the coming months, since the Fed can’t risk acting heading into this year’s critical US presidential election. So gold’s next major upleg was likely just unleashed by the Fed. Full Story
So much for the narrative. The latest myth being promoted in economic circles is that median income growth exploded higher last year. The people promoting this myth obviously didn’t bother reading the actual report and don’t understand what the word “median” means. A big hat tip goes to John Williams who actually DID read the report and found that the Census has adjusted its methodology to include what interest income WOULD be if rates were not at zero. Full Story
Italy’s gold has had an eventful history. Robbed by the Nazis and taken to Berlin. Loaded on to gold trains and sent to Switzerland. Flown from London to Milan and Rome. Used as super-sized collateral for gold backed loans from West Germany while sitting quietly in a vault in New York. Leveraged as a springboard to prepare for Euro membership entry. Inspired Italian senators to visit the Palazzo Koch in Rome. Half of it is now in permanent residency in downtown Manhattan, or is it? Full Story
In conclusion, with the Federal Reserve interest rate hike “uncertainty” now out of the way, banker propaganda can no longer be used in the short-term to keep gold and silver prices weak, and the gold and silver bull should resume again in short time. For those that may find it hard to understand how I can state that gold, silver, and gold and silver stock prices are all still heavily underpriced, even after the strong run of gold and silver asset prices year-to-date, remember that gold at $1,338 an ounce is barely higher than its 2015 high price of about $1,308 per ounce, and silver, which I consider to be even more heavily underpriced than gold, at under $20 an ounce now, is still only a dollar and change over its 2015 high of $18.50 an ounce. Full Story
Head of the Trends Research Institute, Gerald Celente returns with comments on the recent bombings in NY and NJ. Once gold closes firmly above $1,400 per ounce, a new bull market will be underway, according to the Trends Research Institute. By sending interest rates to 46 year lows, policymakers temporarily halted an economic implosion, which resulted in a real estate bubble. Full Story
Before I discovered the junior PM stocks in 2002 the big cap tech stocks is where I played especially during the 1990’s. The real move for the tech stock actually began in 1995 where the final parabolic move started into the 2000 top. You can see the red bullish rising flag that gave me a very good clue to look for a top at a minimum or some type of consolidation pattern to start to building out. Things were extremely bullish back then and to be looking for a top was off most investors radar screens at that time. Full Story
Gibson’s paradox was the established correlation between wholesale borrowing costs (or its proxies) with the general price level, and the absence of any correlation between wholesale borrowing costs and the rate of price inflation. The paradox was evident in the UK for about two hundred years, the full extent of useful statistics, with possibly an even longer history. It is unarguable. This is illustrated in the following two charts, the first showing the correlation. Full Story
In previous articles, we examined gold’s performance in the presidential election cycles. The only relatively reliable conclusion we were able to draw from the long-term analysis is that the post-election year is the worst for the price of gold in the whole cycle. Let’s now focus on gold’s short-term dynamics around election time. Full Story
Once enough people collectively express the truth, perception changes in an instant and down goes the institutions. It is undeniable that most people on an individual can see it, and even admit the insurmountable problems. But as a group it’s a completely different story. And yet, slowly but surely, consciousness expands. The BLS recognizes food inflation today, and the CME is shut down tomorrow. Sadly, from an investment standpoint, gains or safety will only be realized in retrospect. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 23 September, 2016
Economic weakness outside the US has almost certainly played a part in the US slowdown, but the biggest part has been played by the Fed. Monetary policy has simultaneously caused stock prices to remain high and underlying businesses to languish, with the most obvious evidence being the favouring of debt-funded stock buybacks over capital investment. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 23 September, 2016
Short-covering on Thursday shredded a clear Hidden Pivot resistance at 2162.25, implying higher prices are likely. Bulls will face a daunting challenge, however, in the form of supply that stretches back to early August. Most buyers since then would have gotten aboard at or near record highs and weathered the one-day plunge that occurred on September 9; many of them will be understandably eager to get out ‘even’. That’s why there will be plenty of stock offered for sale as the week draws to a close. However, bears alarmed by the persistence and ferocity of the rally since the v-shaped low two weeks ago are probably even more eager to cover short positions, and that’s I expect the old record highs to be surpassed. Full Story
From the Tulip bubble to the financial meltdown of 2008, the theme has been the same. The masses never learn, they always cry foul on the way down but gurgle with joy on the way up. In other words, when they are making money, they are okay with the risk, but when they start to lose, they scream bloody murder. Full Story
The current season is ideal for silver and gold rallies, and this increases the likelihood that the above patterns will resolve soon. Furthermore, we are also in stock market crash season, which could be the greatest driver for the coming silver rally, since significant nominal peaks in the price of silver tend to come after significant nominal peaks in the Dow (I have written about this extensively). Full Story
Nick Barisheff of Bullion Management Group (BMG) notes that most of the above ground silver stockpiles were sold before the year 2000. Only 20% of silver is the byproduct of pure silver mines, the remaining 80% is derived from base metal production, such as lead. The net result: 50% of silver demand is industrial in nature with unique nearly vertical asymptote-like demand / supply curves. Full Story
By: John Mauldin and Ambrose Evans-Pritchard - 22 September, 2016
I’ve been saying for the past couple years that the next recession here in the US will probably be triggered by an external macro event or cascade of events, coming out of Europe or China. Today’s Outside the Box sharpens our focus on China, which had already got quite a lot sharper with Michael Pettis’s piece in Outside the Box on Sept. 2. Full Story
This is the US deep state at work. It’s been doing this for as long as it could get away with it, which goes back no later than the Spanish American War in 1898. And on Monday night, September 26, there will be a debate between the latest candidates to serve this rogue institution. A record number of viewers is predicted by some experts, even though it will be competing with another major entertainment event, Monday Night Football. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 22 September, 2016
I tend to regard any rally stirred up by Yellenblather with skepticism, and that was my initial reaction to the moderate rally in gold and silver futures on Wednesday. On examining their respective intraday charts at the end of the day, however, I found persuasive evidence that there is more to come — and not necessarily just a little bit of upside either. Comex Silver, for one, looks bound most immediately for a 20.350 target that lies about 40 cents above today’s settlement price. And if the futures blow past that number with ease, I’d infer that bulls have a shot at 22.460, or even 23.745 before the intermediate-term bullish cycle begun early in June is spent. Full Story
Framing the dollar as a proxy of confidence in the golden age of central banks, where it discretely took flight as the Fed led policy makers in the wake of the financial crisis and soared to icarus heights on misplaced expectations with more contemporary tightening cycles – we'd argue the apparent indecisiveness in the dollar's technical structure today aptly represents the unresolved tensions in the market that we believe will ultimately become unwound, as challenging economic conditions largely limit the reach of the Fed going forward. Full Story
Five months have lapsed without decision, since London gold and silver benchmark-rigging class action lawsuits received a cool response in a Manhattan court. Transcripts from April hearings show, in the absence of direct evidence, the claims dissected by a “very skeptical” judge, and criticized by defendants for lack of facts suggesting collusion, among other things. Full Story
Yes, you heard me right. The miners are setting up in a pattern which can see them double within the next nine months. So, let me explain. But, before I get into that explanation, I want to preface this write up by saying that I put a lot of thought into where I believe we are in this complex, and will try to convey my thoughts with as much detail as possible. So, it may take several readings to understand what I am saying, since I am providing you with all the information I have been considering before I came to my conclusions at the end of the write up. Full Story
Am I allowed to start with Deutsche Bank? Or do I have to defer to the Bank of Japan’s Keystone Kops; who once again laid a giant goose egg? Who, beyond a shadow of a doubt, proved they have not a clue what they are doing – in dramatically accelerating the pace at which the “Land of the Setting Sun” plunges to “second world” status, en route to becoming the first “Western Power” to experience 21st Century hyperinflation. Full Story
I have a core position in Miners that I started early in 2016. As a trader, I have sold most of my shorter term trading positions and I am waiting for the fat pitch to reload. Are we there or is there further selling likely? I believe that we are very close to another run higher in the Precious Metals sector, but we also have the Fed Mtg on Wednesday that could affect things short term. Are there any clues pertaining to short term direction? Please read on… Full Story
Strong handed gold investors don’t appear to be worried about the BOJ and Fed meetings, and with good reason; a rate hike from the Fed would create panic in the stock market, and investors would flock to gold, just as they did after the first rate hike in December. If the BOJ announces deeper negative rates, that’s also good news for gold, from a competitive cost of carry perspective. Full Story
We are well along in the precious metals correction and have downside targets for gold, silver and the miners. In order for that to be a ‘buy’, the sector and macro fundamentals will need to be in order. Some of those are represented by the gold ratio charts vs. various assets and markets. Below are two important ones. Full Story
Silver has bottomed approximately every 84 months and tells the same story as gold. The rally from the December 2015 low seems likely to push upward long and hard. If the next low occurs in late 2022 to early 2023 (Dec. 2015 plus seven years) a cycle high could occur early next decade. Considerable price appreciation between now and 2020-2022 seems likely, especially considering the upcoming corrections and/or crashes in stocks, bonds, and currencies. Full Story
Ken Rogoff is by all accounts a brilliant man. The Harvard professor and former IMF chief economist is a chess grandmaster. His thesis committee included current Fed vice-chair Stanley Fischer. But like many survivors of Ivy League hoop jumping, the poor fellow appears to have emerged punch drunk. That’s the only conclusion to be drawn from Rogoff’s new book, The Curse of Cash, which, in effect, proposes a ban on paper currency. Full Story
One should be wary of listening to individuals that claim to be experts especially if they are associated with big investment firms or popular media. In most instances, the word expert is the code word for jackass, and the word sell is the secret code word for buy, especially if these jackasses are the ones telling you to do so. Before we continue, let’s examine the story below, and it clearly illustrates how those with the mass mindset sell when it is time to buy and buy when its time to sell. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambu Guru - 20 September, 2016
I have been advised many, many times that I would suffer a lot less seething hostility from co-workers, neighbors and family members (including the one, not mentioning any names, that promised to love, honor, ‘til death do us part with this ring I thee wed blah blah blah) if I would stop being so critical of people, to the point of cruelly belittling these, what is the word I am looking for? morons. Full Story
The thing a good Keynesian will never tell you is once unfretted money printing starts you can never have enough because of what it does to the human condition – it turns people into the pathetic and materialistic sellouts you see everywhere today – what some ‘old-thinker Italian people’ like to call ‘mangia-cake’ – or cake eaters. Others in our society more commonly refer to such people as ‘good time Charlie’s’, people who prefer the ‘lighter side of life’, often with little regard for the cost. Full Story
The consumer price index (CPI), a measure of inflation, came in hotter than expected Friday, registering 2.3 percent year-over-year in August on expectations of 2.0 percent. With the five-year Treasury yielding 1.19 percent, government bond investors are now receiving a negative real rate of return (because 2.3 minus 1.19 comes out to negative 1.11 percent). Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 20 September, 2016
This morning’s competently orchestrated short-squeeze stopped a single tick from the 2146.44 ‘secondary’ Hidden Pivot target disseminated here last night. Ordinarily this would be reason for bears to take mild encouragement, especially since the reaction move generated a bearish impulse leg on the lesser charts. However, because the stock market was simply idling ahead of whatever drivel Yellen serves up tomorrow afternoon, there is little of tradable value for us to infer. Of course, we all know what she will say: that although tightening is no longer immediately in prospect, the Fed will continue to weigh its options. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 19 September, 2016
The title of this article are a series of quotes are from Paul Singer and Alan Greenspan, two successful and respected men with a long history in the financial world. Well, you already knew that. But the significance of their remarks, at a time when investors and funds are almost forced to keep a myopic view of the financial world, is important, as these come from experts standing back and giving a more distant perspective, almost uncluttered by short term financial incidents. Full Story
The Fascist Business Model incorporates all the worse elements of Keynesian economics, a broken fallacious school of thought. The model also integrates a vast system of economic heresy, put forth as public address dogma. All their messages are wrong. They are instead aligned with support of the power structure where big banks conduct self-dealing and print money for themselves. Full Story
Harvard professor and economist Ken Rogoff is once again leading the chorus of high-level academics and officials who declare cash is only for criminals. He made his case in a recent Wall Street Journal editorial called the “Sinister Side of Cash.” The solution, he declares, is to simply get rid of anything but the smallest bank notes. Full Story
The purpose of this update is to point out that the PM sector correction may be completing RIGHT NOW, with sector indices at the 2nd low of a potential Double Bottom. Whether it is or not depends on the outcome of next week’s Fed meeting – if they announce a rate hike, then both the broad market and the PM sector can be expected to break sharply lower. If they don’t – if they put it off again till later, or never, then the PM sector should take off higher again. We cannot know in advance whether they will hike or not, but we can be sure that their intentions have already been telegraphed to the 1%, so that they can position themselves to profit in advance. Full Story
Jeffrey Nichols, Senior economist of Rosland Capital returns with his latest insights on the financial markets and the geopolitical drama. His work indicates that once the $1,400 gold hurdle is surpassed, the former bull market return in all of its glory, ascending over $2,000. Kevin Kerr of Kerr Trading International rejoins the show, with positive comments on the upcoming September 30th, US Federal Budget. The current budget deficit exceeds $107 billion, the persistent issue implies the potential for challenging economic conditions on a national scale. Full Story
The Fed is running a virtual repeat of 1937. The common narrative is that the Fed “didn’t do enough” during the Great Depression. This is used to justify the Fed’s use of non-stop extraordinary monetary policy post-2008. But it’s a total lie. The Fed went bananas in the aftermath of 1929, expanding its balance sheet by 300%. On a relative basis, the Fed’s balance sheet grew from 5% of US GDP to 23% of GDP. Full Story
Following the release of disappointing U.S. economic data Friday morning, which reduces the chance of a rate hike next week, gold rebounded from near two-week lows (although still on track for its first weekly loss in three), reports Reuters. “Once past the FOMC, gold may find a better environment to move higher,” said Michael Armbruster, principal and co-founder at Altavest. “In the big picture, even if the Fed raises rates twice more a total of 50 [basis points], real interest rates will remain negative—a very bullish environment for gold.” Full Story
In the final analysis the only thing we can really change is ourself. I find that working on myself is a full time job. While we can certainly try to change the direction of government the really big challenge in our lives in the change within. A better nation starts with better families and better individual citizens. While it is always easier to fight dragons without, those within are much more difficult to defeat. Full Story
By: Andy Sutton and Graham Mehl - 19 September, 2016
The important thing to remember is that this isn’t a fad, it is a mindset and a way of life. It will take time, but it will change your life for the better. It is long past time that the concept of ‘American Economics’ got placed exactly where it belongs – in the trash can of history along with its half-sister Keynesian economics. Both have been nothing but trouble for regular people all over the world. We wish you the best of luck in this endeavour and are happy to share what we know about the material above. Here’s to your newfound independence! Full Story
The HUI mining index is in a bull market. Traders are making the mistake of stopping out at corrections, such as we are having now. I expect that in 12-24 months the HUI mining index will retest its all-time highs. Full Story
I crave the opportunity to see an antiestablishment candidate win the election. I would exult in seeing our corrupt establishment shattered. So, while I do not like Trump the man (as it would appear he has never done anything that didn’t entirely serve his own self-interest and pompous ego), I have thoroughly enjoyed seeing him upset establishment Republicans and establishment Democrats alike. (And, yes, they are “alike,” so let’s just call them “the establishment” because whether they are Republican or Democrat is not relevant; both parties exist to serve the same rich people and themselves either way.) Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 19 September, 2016
The United States is sitting on top of a massive amount of aging infrastructure that continues to disintegrate at an alarming rate. According to the American Society of Civil Engineers, the U.S. suffers from 240,000 water main breaks a year. That’s roughly 700 water main breaks each day. Some of these water main breaks can be quite large. Here is a picture of water main break that took place on Howard Street in Baltimore. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 19 September, 2016
Stay tuned for updates, since I will try to augment our short position, with risk as tightly controlled as possible, if the opportunity should present itself. Essentially, this will entail buy out-of-the-money puts when SPY is close to a rally target, then turning the position into a vertical bear spread by subsequently shorting puts on weakness. Our goal will be to sell the short puts for at least as much as we’ve paid for the ones we are long. Full Story
The prices of both metals were down again this week. We would guess that it has something to do with the fact that everyone knows: higher rates are coming to the dollar. The yield on the 10-year Treasury closed the previous week at 1.762% and this week at 1.701%. It may not look like much, but this is a change of +1.7%. Full Story
Stocks saw a very choppy weak as we enter the seasonally 6 to 8 week, weak stretch. I’m expecting lots of chop with a few trades here and I’ll also be looking for dip buys when they come but we may not see a nice trend higher until November or so. We’ve had a great summer trading and we should have another nice run into years end. The metals are showing weakness but shouldn’t fall too far. Full Story
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