By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 23 December, 2016
The US dollar has rocketed higher since early November’s US presidential election, rivaling the massive gains seen in the stock markets. With the world’s reserve currency catapulted to extreme secular highs, dollar euphoria has naturally exploded. Traders are overwhelmingly betting the dollar’s strong upside will continue. But this greed-drenched currency looks very toppy and ready to fall, which is very bullish for gold. Full Story
As counter-intuitive as it may seem to many, I believe the world-wide desirability to own the much, maligned U.S. Dollar is destined to rise. To my mind, the recent upside break-out of the U.S Dollar Index is a major event and confirms my belief. It is driven by conditions existing beyond the borders of the United States that are destined to worsen. The result will be the flight of large sums of foreign capital to the U.S. and the dollar. This will likely be a temporary phenomenon, but its effect will be widely felt. Full Story
The old adage that the "Trend is Your Friend" has proven to be the one that separates the winners from the losers. The key however is whether you recognize the right trend! We are being possibly lulled into a false perception and belief of how good things appear if we solely look at the US equity rally. Yes it is temporarily rising but the 600# Gorilla is the Global Bond market and major problems are still lurking. Full Story
Remember over a year ago when they first raised hikes-they huffed and puffed warning everyone that they would raise rates several times in 2016 and viola nothing happened until now. Now they are repeating the same thing all over again. To illustrate how bad this economy take into consideration that the Fed has raised rates only twice in the last decade; the economy was a lot stronger in 2006 and 2007 than it is today. Yellen’s statement below illustrates how the Fed is positioning itself so that it can pull another “oops we were wrong once again” moment. Full Story
Since Trump’s election, the US stock market has climbed unstoppably along a remarkably steep path to round off at a teetering height. Is this the irrational exuberance that typically marks the last push before a perilous plunge, or is the market reaching escape velocity from the relentless gravity of the Great Recession? Full Story
Deutsche Bank is a defendant in more than 7,000 lawsuits worldwide. In two of them it has recently agreed to settlements and is prepared to pay tens of millions of US dollars in restitution and fines. This includes the settling of lawsuits over gold and silver price manipulation. Associated court proceedings against other financial institutions are still underway. Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital - 23 December, 2016
The optimism that has followed the election of Donald Trump has pushed the Dow Jones Industrial Average to the threshold of 20,000, a level that will be both a nominal record and a symbolic milestone. Although this is not the way most observers had predicted that 2016 would play out, most on Wall Street have become extremely reluctant to look a gift horse in the mouth...or to even look at him at all. The impulse is to jump on and ride, and only ask questions if it pulls up lame. But if this year has proven one thing, it is that predictions made by the consensus should not be trusted. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 23 December, 2016
The one thing silver investors want to know, is when will the manipulation of the silver price finally end. And who can blame then. It becomes extremely frustrating to watch the silver price fade lower and lower, especially as the Dow Jones Index gets ready to surpass the 20,000 level. Furthermore, precious metals sentiment continues to head down the toilet and into the cesspool, while the financial networks like CNBC get ready to pass out “Go 25,000 Dow Jones” baseball caps. However, the broader markets are in serious trouble, pointed out by Wolf Richter’s article, What The Heck’s Happening To Our Shale Buyback Boom. Full Story
For many months, the price of gold has been driven by the Fed’s moves and the prospects of interest rate hikes. Therefore, the natural question after the Trump victory is how his presidency will affect the Fed’s actions and, thus, the gold market. There are several ways the Trump’s presidency may influence the U.S. central bank. Full Story
Debt issued behaves like printed money until that debt is payed back. That’s the dirty little secret that bona fide economists don’t discuss, at least in public. See the problem in the graph above? The level of debt NEVER declines. The small blip down in 2010 was a result of $100’s of billions in bank write-offs for defaulted mortgages, credit cards and auto loans. In order to measure the true money supply, it’s necessary to add to together the Fed’s “M” accounts plus the incremental increase in the level of debt each year. Full Story
This year, bulls of precious metals have ridden a roller-coaster of hope followed by disillusionment. Much of the frustration has been due to the bullion banks seizing the opportunity presented by a strong dollar to force closure of their short positions on Comex. Meanwhile, for hedge funds, short-term positioning in gold has been an easy way to play the strong dollar, which is why money-managers morphed from earlier bulls to a mixture of bears and don’t-knows. Next year is shaping up to be an entirely different matter. Full Story
Back in March 2008, as the Credit Crunch was biting, the US Dollar, as measured by the US Dollar Index (USDX), was bottoming after a drop of over six years fuelled by the War on Terror. Silver had previous topped out at about $21 and was later to visit $50 as the dollar faced the abyss again just above the 70 level. To date, that level has been the all time low for the USDX. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 22 December, 2016
The focus of Wednesday’s tutorial session was a prospective short that triggered at the green line shortly after the class ended. You’d have needed to be on the three-minute chart to initiate the trade in the way I’d suggested, but here’s the relevant pattern for anyone who’s interested: a=2265.25 (3:03 p.m. ET); B=2261.00 (3:39); and C=2263.00 (3:45). The chart shown provides a bigger picture, with Hidden Pivot levels that can be used Wednesday night and Thursday to go long or short enroute to D=2240.00. Full Story
The Drs of doom will continue to chant the same monotonous and agonisingly painful song of death, instead of the markets collapsing they will be handed their heads on a platter again. If you had listened to these fools that masquerade as experts, you would have bankrupted yourself several times over. This bull market will end but that day is not upon us yet. The supply of hot money needs to be eliminated, and more importantly, the masses have to embrace this bull market. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 21 December, 2016
The more it exposes and documents manipulation of the monetary metals markets by governments, central banks, and their agents in the financial industry, the more GATA is resented by those in the monetary metals industry who are merely touters of mining shares. That's because GATA tells people what they are up against when they invest in the monetary metals -- indeed, when they aspire to free and transparent markets and to liberty itself. So while there was a victory for GATA in this month's disgorgement in federal court in New York of Deutsche Bank's electronic records of market rigging by its traders and the traders of other banks, on the whole the revelations may have been a defeat for the mining industry. Full Story
So, I have to sideline my “feelings” of concern in the GLD chart when providing you with analysis on the market, and have to still maintain my overall bullish bias until the end of the calendar year. Should the market not provide us with the final squiggles and bottoming that the Elliott Wave count suggests, then I will have to reconsider the case that the entire complex will see lower lows. But, for now, I will be watching for the “final squiggles” and a strong reversal of this downside pattern which has now lasted approximately half the time taken by the rally which began last year at this time. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 21 December, 2016
There has been precious little buying power behind the TrumpSanta rally these last few days, but the selling has been even feebler. The net result has been a slow, steady waft higher that has not quite recouped what was lost in just two hours of selling on Friday. If you do the math, you can see why bears might be fearful of getting short at these levels. For in fact, they’ve reaped about 50 hours of pain for the two hours of pleasure they may have felt last Friday. Contrarians might see this as reason to take a stand and go opposite the trend. However, I would counsel this approach only for those of you who know how to use ‘camouflage’ to initiate low-risk trades on charts of five-minute degree or less. Full Story
After the Trump victory, what should have been a December of portfolio managers chasing gold and silver stocks turned into a December where portfolio managers were chasing the banks because higher interest rates brought about by the post-election surge in yields were "bullish." Well, yes, I get it that the steeper the yield curve, the bigger the margin for the lenders, but how on earth does Bank of America get marked up by 20% because the 10-year prints a 2.48 yield? Higher borrowing costs, by the way, are NOT good for business especially if borrowers are shutting their doors because higher borrowing costs are crippling their customers' purchasing power. Full Story
In last weekend’s report, we covered how the Daily Cycle count was stretching too far, so marking a Nov 15th Daily Cycle Low (DCL) made sense. Doing so means that another DC began on Nov 16, and that puts today’s date in the normal timing band for a new DCL. So with another DCL fast approaching, the capitulation decline we saw this week fits perfectly with expectations. Full Story
By: Mike Maloney and David Morgan - 20 December, 2016
Mike Maloney and David Morgan talk about the recent evidence of Deutsche Bank, UBS, and Barclays colluding to rig the silver markets. Also, they cover where stocks and speculation belong in precious metal investors’ portfolios. Full Story
The Baltic Exchange has a long history. It was founded in 1744 by a group of merchants and traders in a London coffee house and called the “Virginia and Baltick”, reflecting England’s major sources of international commerce at the time. By 1823, it consisted of a merchant committee that regulated trade and operated a securities exchange from a local tavern. It admitted the London Shipping Exchange as a member in 1900 and organized as a private limited company with shareholders. In 1992, its iconic building was destroyed by an Irish Republican Army bomb. In early November of this year, the Baltic Exchange was acquired by the Singapore Exchange in a friendly transaction. Full Story
Gold has a cyclical tendency to decline ahead of a rate hike, and rally after it is announced. This time, the US election may delay the rally, but create one that is bigger and more sustained than the rally of 2016. Here’s why: Republican parties have cyclically been associated with significant US dollar downtrends. The next presidential inauguration occurs on January 20, 2017. Donald Trump has repeatedly stated that he wants a lower dollar. He’ll have control of both the senate and the congress, putting him in a position of tremendous power to impose his will on US markets. Full Story
If the Federal Reserve were a private corporation and did not have a money tree, it would be technically insolvent – i.e. bankrupt. As of its latest balance sheet the Fed was reporting a book value (net worth) of $40.4 billion. But the Fed does not have to mark to market its assets. Given the recent 100+ basis point move in the 10-yr Treasury, if the Fed were forced to mark to market its $3.8 trillion Treasuries and mortgages, it would be forced to reduce the holding value by close to $400 billion, taking the Fed’s net worth to negative $360 billion. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 20 December, 2016
The world doesn’t realize it yet, but the implosion of the global markets has started and can’t be stopped. While the financial networks continue to focus on the rising U.S. stock market and Dollar, this represents a mindset that has totally gone insane. Why? Because the rapidly increasing Dollar and broader U.S. stock market do not represent a healthy economy, rather it reveals the swelling of the cancerous U.S. financial tumor. The faster and larger it grows, the more it will endanger the U.S. economy. Full Story
The best-performing precious metal this week was platinum, up 1.20 percent for the week after surging 3.48 percent on Friday when the December 16 issue of Science published research on a new fuel cell design using an atomically ordered platinum and lead core surrounded by a thick uniform shell of four platinum layers. The new design can undergo 50,000 voltage cycles with a negligible decay in performance and no apparent changes in their structure or elemental composition which has been a weakness in previous fuel cell designs. Full Story
By: Rory Hall and Dave Kranzler - 20 December, 2016
The truth is the enemy now. Rather than fearing Russia, the public should be looking for reasons to not live in fear of the U.S. Government. The same Orwellian fog has enveloped the gold and silver markets, especially as the facts apply to the massive demand for gold in the eastern hemisphere. Mainstream western financial media has become flooded with highly misleading and outright fraudulent news stories about the precious metals markets. In this latest episode of the Shadow of Truth, we dissect through we pull away the wizard’s curtain to shed light on the facts: Full Story
What’s more, gold is looking oversold, down two standard deviations for the 60-day period, which has historically signaled a good buying opportunity. With prices off close to 12 percent since Election Day, I believe this is an attractive time to rebalance your gold position. I’ve always recommended a 10 percent weighting, with 5 percent in gold stocks and the other 5 percent in bullion, coins and jewelry. Full Story
It’s the same story every time: Imbalances build up during a recovery but most investors ignore them because good times have become the new normal and the uptrend seems bullet-proof. Then things fall apart and everyone wishes they’d paid attention to history. This series will cover a few of the more glaring examples of late-cycle myopia, beginning with jobless claims, i.e., the number of people joining the ranks of the unemployed. Full Story
The global financial system continues to groan under the strain of the accumulated weight of trillions of dollars worth of debt and derivatives, which have built up to even more fantastic levels than those that precipitated the near collapse in 2008, thanks to the policy of solving liquidity problems near-term by creating even more debt and derivatives, Quantitative Easing being the most obvious example. However, while the majority consider the situation to be hopeless, there is actually “light at the end of the tunnel”. Full Story
When I was growing up – and until I was well into my 60s, in fact – one of the fixtures of daytime TV was the soap opera As the World Turns. It was often the highest rated of the soaps, but I have to admit that I probably watched it only once or twice. Its stars were the reality-TV celebrities of their time. Now, there is a high probability that you too are a soap opera fan, but a soap in a different genre, though still brought to you by our beloved mass media… Full Story
The Census Bureau reported that its advance estimates of retail sales for November show a .1% gain from October and a 3.8% gain over November 2015. Wall St. was forecasting a .4% gain. Oops. But there’s a bigger problem with that headline report of a .1% increase in retail sales for November: it’s based on guesstimates by the Census Bureau for the largest retails sales categories. Full Story
By: 'Mish' Shedlock and Gordon T Long - 19 December, 2016
In central banks’ seriously misguided attempts to fight routine consumer price deflation, central bankers create very destructive asset bubbles that eventually collapse. When those bubble burst, and they will, it will trigger debt deflation, which is what central banks ought to fear. For a discussion of the BIS study, please see Historical Perspective on CPI Deflations: How Damaging are They? Full Story
Interest rates bottomed in 1946, topped in 1981, and bottomed (probably) in 2016. Rates rose for 35 years and fell for 35 years. Can interest rates go lower? Ask the machines, central banks and algos that control them. But given the rapid rise since August 2016 it seems increasingly likely that rates will continue to rise from what looks like a generational bottom. They might rise for several decades. Full Story
As forecast, the stock market remained buoyant right into month-end, and then preceded to roll over once the month / (fiscal) year-end window dressing dried up. You must realize, that hedge funds make the world go round with respect to the stock market, and this is proof of this fact. And you can expect the same outcome going into year-end for the same reason. Yes, the Fed and it’s masters (commercial banks) run the biggest prop desks, and are very important in the equation, however they cannot maintain the illusion on their own. They need the funds not only for support, but to exploit. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 19 December, 2016
The 19727 target we were using to stay on the right side of the rampaging bull has gotten trashed, suggesting buyers are in need of no rest, even after climbing 2550 points from the election night low. A run-up to 20,000 seemed in-the-bag when 19727 got taken out a week ago, but here’s something more ambitious to contemplate: 21,101, the rally target of the pattern shown. Judging from the ease with which the Dow blew past the 19492 midpoint pivot, odds of a further run-up to 21,101 in the first quarter of 2017 look quite good — about 75% in my estimation. Full Story
The big news of course is that the Fed hiked rates another 25 basis points. So far, stock market speculators don’t seem to care. They should. The present value of all future earnings depends on the interest rate, and every upwards tick is a substantial downward revision of earnings in out years. However, the bull is so strongly entrenched that it may take a while for this to sink in. We also think of the companies who were borrowing to buy their own shares, and for that matter borrowing to pay dividends. At what interest rate do those two trades stop? Full Story
Louis Navellier of Navellier And Associates presents stocking stuffers to Goldseek.com Radio listeners in the form of stock candidates (Figure 1.1.). The list stems from the free Navellier Portfolio Grader service - the host reviews 20 stocks advancing from the hold to the buy designation. Arch Crawford, head of Crawford Perspectives notes the waning momentum in the US equities markets. Although the technical picture is less appealing, a Santa Claus rally seems likely in the last half of this month. The discussion includes the global theme of currency devaluation. Full Story
By: Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT, MFTA - 18 December, 2016
Gold and gold mining stocks were setting up for a rebound until the market suddenly priced in tighter policy from the Federal Reserve. Both nominal and real yields surged and that pushed an already oversold sector below key support. Gold lost support in the mid $1100s while gold stocks (GDX) lost a critical support level. While the sector is oversold and likely to rebound as 2017 begins, the primary trend remains lower. Full Story
Buckle Up ,Pour yourself your favorite beverage, and take some time. This Report will be an in depth Chartology analysis of the current situation in this ever interesting and often exasperating market we are participating in. Oh and don’t forget to open your mind. Lets begin. I would like to start the Weekend Report by looking at a combo chart which has the US dollar on top and gold on the bottom, which shows you a better version of the positive divergence the US dollar had vs gold in 2011. Full Story
Oh no, not again! Oh, yes, once again precious metals along with mining shares got smashed on Wednesday. The latest attack came after the well-choreographed FOMC rate hike announcement. For weeks the mining shares had bucked a deteriorating gold price; silver was holding up defiantly as well. Unfortunately, the “bucking” only exasperated the divergence building between gold and mining share price. Full Story
By: Andy Sutton and Graham Mehl - 18 December, 2016
While we aren’t sure the coast is clear – yet – the show must indeed go on. There are topics that need to be discussed. Now with the whole new concept of ‘fake news’ out there for the sole purpose of discrediting anything the establishment wants off the radar we’re going to have to ask you to look at the decade’s worth of work that has been poured into this column and decide if we are fake or not. Full Story
Why did gold and silver tank after the long-anticipated Fed rate hike of ¼%? That is the question that is on the mind of most of our readers. And it is a logical question if you think that the dollar, interest rates or the uncertainty of the Trump election are probably the reasons. Reasons? Yes, in a sense they do affect the price of precious metals, but if you really want to understand what is happening, you have to refocus on the real reasons. Full Story
I am writing to you from Santiago de Queretaro, Mexico, where the whole country is having a yuuuuge Donald Trump victory sale. Mexico is one of my favorite countries to visit. It combines a laid back attitude, friendly people and an outstanding culinary tradition. It also helps that it’s currently one of the cheapest places on the planet—one of many reasons that I’ve spent 5 weeks here recently (Yucatan and Central Mexico thus far). Full Story
We finally got the rate increase this past week and the Federal Reserve says there are 3 more to come in 2017. That will only hold true if markets and stocks remain strong and so far, they are. This rate increase has been fully baked into the cake for a very long time and markets only gave us a brief dip buying opportunity on the news before turning higher once again. The metals were hit hard on the actual news, but as we’ve seen repeatedly after Fed news, the move is usually a counter-trend move and rarely lasts more than 3 days. Full Story
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