Head of Research at GoldMoney, Alasdair MacLeod makes his show debut on Thanksgiving Day, 2018. Listeners are encouraged to bookmark his weekly commentary at Goldmoney Insights. The Bank of England (BoE) refused to honor its custodial arrangement and return 14 tonnes of gold held on behalf of Venezuela (MacLeod, 2018). Full Story
Arch Crawford, head of Crawford Perspectives for 41 consecutive years rejoins the show. Our guest advises investors to hold a core position in gold, which could develop a base near current levels. A close above $1,370 would indicate a sign of pent-up bullish demand. Full Story
Last week, I provided the fundamental background for why I believe the risk of lower lows in Gold remains, based primarily on USD/CNY breaking the critical 7 threshold. I also provided the rationale for the enormous rally to follow, driven by a reversal in policy by the Fed following a stock market crash and the subsequent ultimate peak in the dollar, including USD/CNY. Full Story
The major silver miners’ stocks have been largely abandoned this year, spiraling to brutal multi-year lows. Such miserable technicals have exacerbated the extreme bearishness plaguing this tiny contrarian sector. While profitable silver mining is challenging at today’s exceedingly-low silver prices, these miners are chugging along. Their recently-reported Q3’18 results show their earnings are ready to soar as silver recovers. Full Story
The Organization For Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) is urging the nations of the world to be prepared for and have a coordinated plan to simultaneously engage in major "fiscal stimulus" in the event of a downturn in the global economy. Full Story
All through the bear market hopeful rationalizations were served up for a bullish case on the gold miners. All through the bear market we warned people not to eat that rotten turkey! China demand, the China and India “love trade”, cyclical inflation driving up the prices of commodities and resources and the classic… economic growth in the US will create cost-push inflation through wage increases with the smart money seeking inflation protection in gold. All of those and a veritable Turducken of mishmashed ingredients were served to gold bugs as a decidedly not delectable appetizer before the main course. Full Story
Global debt increased at the fastest rate at the beginning of 2018. In just one quarter, total global debt jumped by more than $8 trillion. That is quite surprising as total world debt rose by $22 trillion for the full year in 2017. Thus, the increase in global debt last year averaged $5.5 trillion each quarter. Full Story
This reform will make US financial system more vulnerable, just adding fuel to the fire of easy money. This is what some people worry about. Are they right? We invite you to read our today’s article about the rollback of Dodd-Frank Act and its potential implications for the price of gold. Full Story
The examples of corporate dumb money in action are many and varied, but a few are up there with GE in terms of egg-on-the CEO’s face, chaos at the annual shareholders meeting entertainment value. Big Tech icons Apple, Alphabet, Cisco, Microsoft and Oracle, for instance, repurchased $115 billion of stock in the first three quarters of 2018, while devoting only $42 billion to capital spending. Full Story
By: Jordan Roy-Byrne CMT, MFTA - 21 November, 2018
It is very difficult to pick exact bottoms but there are many tools we can use to help us pinpoint potential bottoms. You don’t hear technical analysts talk about fundamentals but we do for a reason. Major shifts in the primary trend are supported by fundamental shifts, though they can be very hard to spot until after the fact. Full Story
Markets are deceptive…but we all know that. Beyond deceptive, markets are actually down right diabolical. Mr. Market operates through his two most trustworthy lieutenants Mr. Bull and Mr. Bear. He has tasked Mr. Bull to climb and reach the top of the mountain using investors buying power to fuel the rise. But he has also instructed Mr. Bull to not allow those same investors to complete the journey themselves, he wants to reach the top without them. Full Story
On Tuesday, significant gold news was made when the London Bullion Market Association finally began its long-awaited disclosure of gold market size and trading volume. If anything, all their first report revealed was the sheer magnitude of the scam and the fraud that persists in the current system. Full Story
After breaking upside from a double bottom pattern, gold continues its solid price action. More good times lie directly ahead for precious metals investors, because Chinese New Year buy season begins very soon. The US stock market’s “traditional end of the year rally” is turning into a veritable turkey shoot for the bears. Gold seems immune to the action, suggesting that unseen inflationary pressures may be larger than most investors realize. Full Story
Bart Chilton, the former member of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission who pushed his agency to hold in a March 2010 public hearing that addressed manipulation of the monetary metals markets and called GATA leaders as witnesses, this year has been hosting Russia Today's daily "Boom/Bust" program, and last Thursday he interviewed fund manager and gold advocate Peter Schiff about market manipulation. Full Story
Hyper-inflation destroys more than savings, businesses, retirements and hope. People abandon morality and look for strong leaders or dictators. Governments adapt to survive. They increase taxes, forfeitures, surveillance and police state tactics. Hyper-inflation has occurred many times in the past hundred years in Europe, Asia, Africa and South America. Hyper-inflation creates ugly consequences for the bottom 99%! Full Story
After recent comments from the Fed officials and reports on inflation, many analysts argued that Powell was between rising inflation and slowdown in global economy. However, that’s not accurate description. Inflation rose in October, but mainly because of jump in energy prices. The core inflation remains stable and the overall CPI may ease in the near future, given the fall in oil prices in November. Full Story
Here in San Antonio, the temperature hit a bone-chilling low of 27 degrees last Wednesday, breaking a 102-year-old record for mid-November. An out-of-state visitor, Cornerstone Macro’s Head of Portfolio Insights Stephen Gregory, speculated that the Central Texas temperature, ordinarily mild this time of year, was down more than three standard deviations. I didn’t make the calculation, but my guess would be about the same. Full Story
I wanted to wait for the COT before completing my assessment of the trade "set-up" for gold and silver into year end and as you will read in my remarks below, this week's COT was a powerful signal to the markets. On Friday, gold was up 0.58%, silver was up 0.86%, and the HUI was up 1.51%. This was a perfect day as silver and the miners outperformed gold and now we get a constructive COT structure. Odds favor a rally into late January. Full Story
President Donald Trump isn’t thrilled about Jerome Powell’s stewardship of the dollar and interest rates. He would like the central bank’s help in keeping the economic party going, but so far the Fed Chair just won’t play ball. Now the Wall Street Journal has joined the President’s call for some renewed stimulus. Full Story
One of the most popular phrases you hear when market volatility increases both up and down is “buy the dip.” Surprisingly, this is a mantra of famed investor, the “Oracle of Omaha” —Warren Buffett. He also advocates to not time the market. That is odd given that it appears to clash with “buy the dip.” But then it is hard to argue with someone who amassed an $87 billion fortune. Buffett is also alleged to have said to buy good companies and hold them forever. However, that is somewhat of a myth as Buffett has sold companies largely because they were no longer good companies. One of his holdings, Coca-Cola (KO-NYSE), seems to have been in his portfolio forever. Full Story
We have stated time and again that gold is part of the monetary system it is just not on the front burner. If gold were not part of the monetary system national (central) banks would no longer hold it, nor would it be recorded on balance sheets as a Tier 1 asset – in essence, money, which it is. So, this notion that gold is not money, as Ben Bernanke stated in 2011, is a complete farce, a rouse, a bold faced lie. Full Story
Rob Kirby of Kirby Analytics sees extreme risks ahead for the financial markets via a shattered US accounting system. The missing $21 trillion dollars (size of US National Debt) in government funds, is possibly held by the exchange stabilization fund (PPT). Bill Murphy of GATA.org returns to the show with fresh insights on the PMs rally. A new precedent was set within the Central Bank realm this week with the Bank of England refusing to honor its custodial arrangement. Full Story
The best performing metal this week was palladium, up 5.41 percent. Palladium surged this week on bets that the Chinese auto industry will boost global demand due to tight supplies of the metal, which is used in vehicle pollution-control devices. Gold traders and analysts were bullish for the second week in a row in the Bloomberg weekly sentiment survey. Many expect the yellow metal to benefit from continued Brexit-related chaos, which leads some investors to turn to perceived safe haven assets. Full Story
So far, the central banks have responded to these corrections by simply doing more of the same, just at greater and greater intensity. To keep the current Everything Bubble going, the world's central banks have not only had to more than quintuple their collective balance sheets, but have recently had to resort to the extreme (desperate?) measure of injecting the greatest amount of liquidity ever in 2016 and 2017. Full Story
Strong words, aren’t they? And yet, we are not afraid to put them right in the title. The number of factors (and their importance) that point to a nearby reversal and continuation of the major decline is too significant to believe in the bullish case, even though gold, silver, and mining stocks moved higher in the last few days. Full Story
Buying gold is a non-expiring hedge. But only people who perceive a need to hedge, will buy the hedge. The rest may think that stocks are a bargain here, being down almost 7% from the high last month. So far in this incredible boom following the crisis, every time people who bought the dip were rewarded. Full Story
Most warnings about large increases in government indebtedness revolve around future repayment obligations. For example, there is the concern that greatly increasing the government debt in the present will necessitate much higher taxes in the future. For another example, there is the concern that if the debt load is cumbersome at a time of very low interest rates, then as interest rates rise the interest expense will come to dominate the budget and lead to an upward debt spiral as more money is borrowed to pay the interest on earlier debt. Full Story
"That day the United States announced that the dollar would be devalued by 10 percent. By switching the yen to a floating exchange rate, the Japanese currency appreciated and a sufficient realignment in exchange rates was realized. Joint intervention in gold sales to prevent a steep rise in the price of gold, however, was not undertaken. That was a mistake." Full Story
Science tells us energy can neither be created nor destroyed within a closed system. Whatever amount is there will stay the same, though it might change form. If only the same were true for debt. Within the closed system called Earth, we are much better at creating debt than eliminating it. But when we have too much, we eventually eliminate it in painful and unpleasant ways via some kind of debt crisis. This has happened over and over again throughout history. Full Story
If you've been following my analysis of the SPX 500 through the years, you know that we have called the stock market rather well. In fact, we called for the rally to 2100 in 2015, and then expected a pullback from 2100 to the 1800 region as we came into 2016. However, unlike most others at the time, we expected that pullback would set us up for a 40%+ rally in the overall index before we saw a 20-30% correction. In fact, we were calling for a “global melt-up” at the time. Full Story
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