I thought I'd write something headed into this weekend. I continue to believe that next week will be the week that shakes the financial world at its foundation… we may even witness the opening of Pandora's Box on the gold and silver manipulation for the entire world to see! Full Story
By: Terry Coxon, Editor, The Casey Report - 23 October, 2009
Most of us are gathered at the station, watching for the Inflation Express to come rumbling in. But we've been waiting for a while now. Just when should we expect the big locomotive to arrive and start pushing the prices of most things uphill?... Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital, Inc. - 23 October, 2009
For the most part, the value of the dollar is given cursory attention by the financial media. Typically, its movements are assigned an importance on par with much less determinative metrics such as natural gas futures and construction permits. It's only when major milestones are reached that anyone really takes notice of the dollar. We are living through one of those times. Full Story
Since crude oil is so vital to the modern economy, it should not surprise anyone that it influences many markets, and virtually none of them can be completely free from oil’s influence. Therefore, this week I will analyze this particular market, from the precious metals perspective. I will use the scatter chart in order to focus on the trend and the average shape of the correlation. Full Story
The end of the de facto petrodollar standard has profound and lasting implications for the US dollar, oil, and gold. The US is the epicenter of the global financial crisis and economic downturn, but the US continues to exercise disproportionate control of the oil trade and to enjoy the unique status of the US dollar as the world reserve currency. Full Story
The little-known state of the gold market as prices close at a new weekly high... YOU WON'T read it in your Sunday paper, nor elsewhere online this weekend. But this autumn's gold rush has, in truth, been no such thing at all. No one's actually buying gold right now. Full Story
The reprieve in the markets since March has provided investors with an incredible opportunity to sell into strength, and get out of the way of an even greater decline dead ahead. But for some gold, which is and will always be real money, we advise readers to do the same. Full Story
A key factor in developing a Profitable investment Strategy is a determination of the likely inflation outlook. Unfortunately, certain confused Pundits mistake a declining rate of inflation for deflation. No, the past year’s declining rate of Real U.S. Consumer Price Inflation still leaves us with Inflation (per shadowstats.com), but just at a lower rate, temporarily. Full Story
By: Daniel Aaronson and Lee Markowitz - 23 October, 2009
Investors are valuing companies based on what are likely to be “normalized” earnings for 2011. This method could be as risky as when investors valued internet and technology companies based on EBITDA in the late 1990s. The forward PE multiple on the S&P 500 currently matches that at the beginning stage of the technology bubble (see Figure 1). Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence LLC - 23 October, 2009
It’s sure been an awesome year in the stock markets! By this week, the benchmark S&P 500 index (SPX) had soared 62.3% from its despair-laden March low and 21.6% year-to-date. Naturally the gains have been fantastic in this dream environment for traders, with nearly all sectors relentlessly powering higher. Full Story
By: Andrew Mickey, Q1 Publishing - 23 October, 2009
Commodities have proven to be one of the favored safe havens of Wall Street over the past few months. Oil is trading hands for more than $80 a barrel. Natural gas prices have more than doubled in the past few months. Metals prices have soared across the board. You name it - copper, gold, silver, etc. – and its up. Agriculture commodities, however, have seemed to miss out on the majority of the race to real assets. Full Story
The more unreliable the decisions of the central bankers, the more upset the economists are with owners of gold. They do not want the price of gold to rise. Such an increase would signal a voice of protest by a small group of private citizens. If you would like to protest the extension of centralized government power over your life and society in general, buy a few gold coins. I like protests that can turn a profit. This is such a protest. Full Story
By: David Morgan and Andy Sutton - 23 October, 2009
Andy Sutton: Hello everyone. Welcome to Contrary Investors Café for the Rocks and Stocks Report. My name is Andy Sutton and this week we have an exciting guest, David Morgan from Silver-Investor.com. I don’t think this really needs much preamble, so without ado let’s get right into the interview with David Morgan. Full Story
By: Jason Hommel, Silver Stock Report - 23 October, 2009
Remember, governments steal. It's what they do. That's the entire point of owning gold and silver. They are the hardest assets to find, and the hardest to steal. The government is already confiscating money through taxation, and inflation through bank bailouts. The bailouts also indicate that the assets those banks hold have been stolen long ago. To trust them with your IRA accounts, or ETFs, is just begging for trouble. Full Story
The last couple of weeks have seen financial market news services ablaze with articles and concern that the Federal Housing Administration will be the next billion dollar operation which will soon need taxpayer bailout funds. Bloomberg put the problem into perspective in a recent article by Jody Shennon on “FHA Shortfall Seen at $54 Billion May Lead to Bailout.” Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 23 October, 2009
With draconian pay cuts looming in the banking industry, the last thing we’ll have to worry about is mass defections of talent. In fact, the financial sector is deflating these days as fast as the Heene’s balloon, causing the number of job openings for “financial products” specialists to shrink by the hour. How times have changed! Full Story
Readers of my report know I was looking for more of a price break than gold has seen since prices peaked in mid October. What I did not expect was as much sideways action off that peak as has been seen. On October 14th, December Gold hit a high price of 1072. Since then, prices have drifted sideways to lower. Two days after peaking at 1072, prices hit their current low 1043.7. In essence gold has been trading in a $30 price range over the past week. Full Story
By: The Energy Report and Matt Badiali - 22 October, 2009
S&A Resource Report editor Matt Badiali covers a broad expanse of ideas as well as geography in this exclusive interview with The Energy Report. He discusses the immense potential of Iraqi oil, and the smaller but surer resurrection of old oil fields in Illinois. In addition to sharing views about areas within the oil industry worthy of investors' attention, he talks about the promise—and problems—associated with major oil finds that have been making the news. Full Story
So, the home buyers tax credit is in the news again and it's becoming quite controversial... Proponents would like to see the program extended well into next year and have the credit expanded to $15,000 (or more), removing the first-time home buyer requirement which, by the way, really didn't restrict this to new home buyers at all, just those who hadn't owned a home in the last three years. Full Story
By: David Coffin & Eric Coffin, HRA Advisories - 22 October, 2009
Right now there is much confusion about whether a “typical” market cycle even applies. Asian growth economies that function somewhat differently than western markets (and differently than each other) are clouding crystal balls. These effects are skewed even more by price shifts against currencies. We seem to be between cycles, and probably are. In our little bit of the galaxy this means coming up with a new gauge for the price vs. stocks equation for copper and some other metals. Full Story
For the average person, what is the immediate danger from the financial crisis? Not just the financial crisis itself, but the government and Federal Reserve's response to the financial crisis, which is essentially to create trillions of dollars out of thin air? For you and me, what’s the immediate, tangible danger of this limitless bailout of the most politically powerful special interest group in America, the bankers of Wall Street? Full Story
Ratio charts get into an important concept of relative value and relative gains. These things are extremely important in a paper currency world where the value of money itself is constantly changing. In 95% of cases, this is due to a loss of value in the currency, as all paper money (i.e. fiat) systems are abused until the currency becomes worthless and is replaced with a new currency. No historical exceptions actually. Full Story
Gold IS the best game in town and when the music stops it may be the ONLY game in town that can yield any sort of return. The music I refer to here is the sound of spin given some measure of credibility (only to the un-initiated) by massive stimulus spending which has kept this farce of an economy on its last legs through various stages for 9 years. Full Story
We are of the opinion that the Canadian mining stocks are close to a spectacular breakout very soon and we think it timely to revisit one of our articles of a few years ago. Are the potential gains only for Canadian investors? Full Story
The market is starting to look and feel top heavy with many indicators and price action patterns giving cross signals. While the market could continue to rocket higher with new money getting dumped in from average investors because of solid 3rd quarter earnings, we must be cautious by tightening our stops and take some profits off the table. Full Story
A new ETF is being introduced to the investing community by van Eck Global, the same corporation that is behind a number of ETFs, including GDX, the Gold Miners ETF. This ETF (symbol GDXJ) will represent 38 junior mining and exploration companies that have mining potential. The complete listing is available at the bottom of this article. Full Story
By: John Browne, Senior Market Strategist, Euro Pacific Capital - 22 October, 2009
In a small bit of Washington irony, a government panel convened this week under the guise of ensuring 'expressive freedom' on the Internet, while at the same time the Obama Administration put Fox News on notice that ideological rectitude would be a prerequisite for White House engagement. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 22 October, 2009
With Goldman shares mired in a cyclical dither, we expected Google to lead the market higher yesterday. And so it did, although the net effect was a merely weakly buoyant Dow Average that crashed in the final hour. With hubris alone driving stocks higher, it would seem there’s no substitute for the un-real thing. Full Story
The US Federal Reserve continues to talk about their urgent Exit Strategy. My theory is they will be doing mostly talking and almost no doing. The nations that talk the least will be hiking interest rates the most, like Australia. The United States might be dead last in hiking interest rates. The credibility of the USFed will in the process continue to be harmed much more than already, which is rock bottom. Full Story
Stocks now pay way less than bonds once again, but neither pay much... BLINK and you missed it. US equities offered a greater yield on investment than did US Treasury bonds for less than five months... And from the day this oddity struck, 18 Nov. 2008, the S&P still had another one-fifth to fall. Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 21 October, 2009
The big question for the banks is will the government perpetuate this fraud? We do not know, but we rather think they may for the good of the country. If fraud continues it will be for the benefit of Illuminists who run the banks, brokerage houses, insurance companies and transnational conglomerates. Either way again all they are doing is buying time; the end result will be the same. The banking, brokerage and insurance businesses are still broke. Nothing has been done to fix the underlying problem. Full Story
History reveals, very clearly, that fiat currency always leads to destruction of wealth, disorder, political unrest and misery, every time, always. According to Keynes " Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the capitalist system was to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. Full Story
Talk about revaluation of the Gulf currencies is back on the agenda as rising inflation exerts pressure on the Gulf dollar pegs, while at the same time rumors of discussions about linking a new single currency to a gold standard have been so emphatically denied that skeptics wonder if there is some truth in it. Full Story
With the new highs we have seen in October, the time has arrived where gold is making an important decision in its medium and long term price direction. In other words it has arrived at a major inflection point when viewed on a weekly price chart. We’ve been tracking this medium term breakout scenario and this is a follow-up to some of the recent articles published. Full Story
By: Jason Hommel, Silver Stock Report - 21 October, 2009
Will this story make gold prices move down, as people may begin to distrust gold? Probably not. It's not much of a story so far. If anything, if this is true, it's one more reason to distrust the paper money establishment banks who may be "holding gold for you", if the LBMA gold is not good. It should encourage people to take delivery of real gold. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman and Chuck Cohen - 21 October, 2009
Our NYC-based correspondent Chuck Cohen, a consultant who specializes in gold investments, is so bullish on mining shares right now that he can barely contain himself. We’re hard-pressed to hold back ourselves, having recently disseminated a 492 target, 12% above current levels, for the Gold Bugs Index (HUI). We also expect the next surge in Comex Gold to push the December contract up to at least $1134, implying a rally of about seven percent from current levels. Full Story
By: The Gold Report and Eric Hommelberg - 20 October, 2009
Since the bull gold market began in 2001, Gold Drivers Report publisher and Bullion Store proprietor Eric Hommelberg argues that gold has significantly outperformed the Dow in terms of valuations, and as he sees it, the bull run will last at least until the middle of the next decade. Full Story
It is now time for the tables to turn once again. It is now time for the paperbugs to take their medicine. It is now time for the "Don't Worry, Be Happy and Invest in Stocks Forever" crowd to come to realize they were not only wrong, but arrogant in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary. Full Story
It has been said God doesn’t speak to mankind because mankind doesn’t listen. Be that as it may, it is certainly true that England didn’t listen to Napoleon’s warning regarding China. Contrary to Napoleon’s advice, England woke China up. Full Story
By: Steven Saville, Speculative Investor - 20 October, 2009
The "circular flow of income" theory favoured by Keynes and his disciples holds that one man's spending is another's income, the implication being that if consumer spending is boosted then economy-wide income will be boosted and the overall economy will strengthen. It follows from this theory that an economy-wide increase in savings will lead to a weaker economy, since the only way to increase savings is to reduce current spending. Full Story
A truly major change in the global monetary system is beginning to materialize. The dollar is starting to be dethroned. Foreign governments and central banks are going to do the dethroning. Full Story
A lawsuit over billions of dollars of unclaimed savings bonds is brewing over whether the Treasury Department or the States should be able to confiscate the minimal remaining value of these certificates of confiscation. This article will be written from the first person perspective of the victim who has been robbed after investing in these ‘risk-free’ assets issued by the United States Treasury. Full Story
The government has splattered lots of money onto the economy, working hard to reflate the bubble that got us into trouble in the first place. The Dow is back at 10,000. What are you to do? If you are a wealth sustainer, you should not be drawn into the market simply because it has gone up. Instead, take a step back, look at the market dynamics and see what risks you can afford to take. Full Story
It’s amazing how quickly now things are developing. The dollar is falling faster than anyone guessed and the rise of inflation will be just around the corner. What we are entering now is equivalent to falling into a black hole. We have gone too far with the mindless money creation. Now the rest of the world realizes that any investment in the dollar is guaranteed simply to depreciate. Even light does not escape from the depths of a black hole. The US dollar sure isn’t going to do any better. Full Story
Although some investors argue that it is deflation that is in the cards, not inflation, I believe that one should at least one step just in case the massive amount of capital that has been pumped into the sliding economy causes a deterioration in the value of the currency. This step is making sure that one’s portfolio has at least one asset that will retain value should dollar’s value drop significantly. Full Story
The party at Lisa's was a festive affair. People brought suitcases full of money, bags stuffed with old bills, jars filled to the brim with change. Lisa, ever the entertainer, had put out a nice spread of cookies and cakes and punch. After everyone arrived and had a chance to mingle, the buyer set up at the dining room table, scale, coin counter and loupe at the ready. Full Story
U.S. government subsidies into renewable energy are forming a green bubble. One that's steadily inflating. But the catch is, only one alternative energy is currently economically viable before subsidies... and that's geothermal. Full Story
Human beings are not designed to think in terms of loss, or at minimum, are not built to deal with it well psychologically. And if you look around one can see this in how we have structured our modern day society, with the economy counting on steady and consistent growth even if its not to be. Of course even though it’s not to be, we humans would prefer to be optimistic, and lie about the reality of the situation. Full Story
By: Andrew Mickey, Q1 Publishing - 19 October, 2009
Most investors are still nervous. The S&P 500 has reached its highest point since September 2008. After that time though, it went on to fall 26% in two months. Full Story
With a zero real interest rate, it is impossible to accumulate capital for your retirement. Our level of wealth has to drop back to that of circa 1800 AD. The world population has to drop back to one billion from the current six billion. FIVE BILLION PEOPLE HAVE TO DIE (unless we change back to the traditional American gold standard which brought us such prosperity). How can you make it in such an economy? Full Story
Mega profits are achievable via investment in Australian gold shares and we recently proved this via an educational piece (end August) that discussed a method of valuing companies. Within six weeks the stock made a high at 260% of the original price for a clear gain of 160%. Full Story
The first chart shows the gold price divided by the US Dollar Index Bearish Fund. In effect, it shows how gold is moving when measured in the currencies the US Dollar Index consists of. The index is a weighted geometric mean of the dollar's value compared with: Full Story
Commodities continue to climb with several commodities making new highs for the year. The equities market continues to push higher with 3rd quarter earnings coming in better than expected. This good news has aroused more investors to put what's left of their money back into the market which has been the fuel for this recent rally in stocks. Full Story
By: Roland Watson, The Silver Analyst - 19 October, 2009
Silver is pushing $18, gold has made new all time nominal highs and it all appears to be looking good for The Great Leap Forward. Buyers are piling in fearful of having to buy at higher prices and gold and silver look moon bound. Meanwhile I am now all cash in my trading account and have sold silver bullion as well (for my trading account of course). Yet I believe silver will make new highs and approach the highs not seen since January 1980. Am I insane? No, just bearish medium term and bullish long term. Full Story
The only bull market we can compare the current eight year rise in the price of gold to is the ten year rise in the 1970s. The Aden sisters, Mary Anne and Pamela, have extrapolated the future price of gold using the same growth rate as in the ‘70s and applied it to the current bull market and reported their findings in their latest Aden Forecast. Full Story
1st Hour: Headline news & The Market Weatherman Forecast. Spotlight Stock Picks. Host, Chris Waltzek & The International Forecaster discuss Superstar Investors & answer listener's questions. 2nd Hour: -Gerald Celente, Trends Research Institute Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 18 October, 2009
So whether rumors are true or not, the environment in which they are taken, seriously defines their relevance. The concept of oil priced in currencies other than the $ will happen, it is simply a case of when. Meanwhile, it is time to get ready for that day. and possibly to an eventual five figures, so long as governments will allow its individuals and institutions to do so? Full Story
A year ago I conducted a Seminar on the gold basis and backwardation in Canberra, Australia. I suggested to my audience that the gold basis (premium in the nearby futures on spot gold, with negative basis meaning backwardation) as a “pristine indicator that, unlike the gold price, cannot be manipulated or falsified by the banks or by the government. Thus it is a true measure of the perennial vanishing of spot gold from the market, never to return, at least not as long as the present fiat money system endures.” Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 18 October, 2009
Some of Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s closest aides, none of whom faced Senate confirmation, earned millions of dollars a year working for Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Citigroup Inc. and other Wall Street firms, according to financial disclosure forms. Full Story
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors - 18 October, 2009
I first wrote about the Muddle Through Economy in 2002, and the term has more or less become a theme we have returned to from time to time. In 2007 I wrote that we would indeed get back to a Muddle Through Economy after the end of the coming recession. If you Google the term, at least for the first four pages more than half the references are to this e-letter. I get a lot of flak from both bulls and bears about being either too optimistic or too pessimistic. Being in the muddle through middle is comfortable to me. Full Story
On October 15, 2009, I gave a lecture at Moravian College in Bethlehem on the horrendous economics of the stimulus plan, and why free market solutions will work far better. An MP3 is not yet available, but a PDF is here. The video playing prior to the lecture is below. This is only the latest in a series of economic lectures, including on the financial crisis. Full Story
On 9 October 2009 I was interviewed by Business News Network, Canada’s premier financial channel, live from the NASDAQ in Times Square New York about the rise of gold. Full Story
Horrendous stock market bubbles have been inflated all over the world as a direct consequence of the government interventions since last September. This has been the unwelcome and to some extent unexpected consequence of this action. Full Story
On October 10 I published an article that postulated that the gold market is a Ponzi scheme because it sells gold that doesn't exist by implementation of the principles of fractional reserve banking. (See http://www.gata.org/node/7887.) Since writing that article further information has come to light that supports this claim and allows an estimate of how much gold has been sold that doesn't exist if the owners of the gold ask for it. Full Story
Gresham's Law, properly understood, is a real phenomenon. When a government threatens violence against currency traders for daring to make an exchange at a rate not mandated by the government, there will be a glut of the overpriced currency and a shortage of the underpriced currency in that jurisdiction. The result will be decreased trade across borders. There will be shortages of goods on both sides of the border. Most people's wealth will decline as a direct result of reduced trade. Full Story
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