By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 22 September, 2006
-Time to hedge against hedge funds...while most people like to make money, the citizens of Hedgefundland seem more than happy to lose it... -Where does this feeling of entitlement come from?...a dear reader challenges us to a battle of the wits... -You gotta know the territory...attending the dreaded PTA meeting...and more! Full Story
But, considered more deeply, as Deepcaster is wont to do, one realizes that the demand over supply deficits for both gold and silver (and especially silver) are still very real and worsening. Moreover, one also realizes that none of the tensions which ostensibly gave rise to the increasing gold and silver prices early this year has disappeared. Indeed, they have just gone from hot to simmering. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 22 September, 2006
With Bay Area homes sales hitting nine-year lows, there’s at least one economist who knows a bust when he sees one: “The market is flat and the bubble has popped,” said Chris Thornberg. And while some in the real estate business may have been encouraged by yesterday’s decision by the Fed to leave administered rates unchanged, Thornberg sees a problem that has been growing far bigger and faster than even the most pessimistic observers might have predicted: “This is way beyond the Fed,” he said. “It’s just so out of whack, it’s going to take a long time to clear out.” Full Story
-Everything passes away - whether you like it or not...might as well enjoy the sweetness of decay... -Risk premium isn't free...the stock market still has a lot of leaves left to drop... -Demanding respect from the Sun King...an energy pop quiz...and more! Full Story
By: Axel Merk, Merk Hard Currency Fund - 21 September, 2006
Every day, another economist claims that the impact of the slowdown in housing on the economy is overrated; a few months ago, many still disputed there even was a housing bubble. There has been a housing bubble, the bubble has only started to deflate, and it may have very negative long-term implications for the US economy as well as the US dollar. Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital, Inc. - 21 September, 2006
Over the past several weeks, oil and gas prices have fallen sharply, prompting many to conclude that the bull market has finally run its course. With oil prices back to $60 per barrel, most are now calling for prices to fall back below $50, and some see even lower prices dominating in the years to come. As there is no real evidence that suggests an abatement of those forces that pushed oil prices up from below $20 six years ago to near $80 dollars last month, such rosy forecasts really amount to wishful thinking. The recent sharp decline is likely technical in nature, providing long-term investors with an excellent opportunity to build on established positions, or create new ones. Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 21 September, 2006
Gold and silver should be trading at much higher levels, but due to government intervention they remain under pressure. Now that Henry Paulson is Treasury Secretary you can expect pressure will continue. It will be interesting to see the central bank comments as to why more than100 tons of gold under quota was not sold under the Central Bank’s Gold Sales Agreement. There is no carryover on that allotment. We believe the central banks do not want to be sellers of what gold they have left, and we have been saying that for a year. There are only six days left to sell. If sales remain at current levels of 370 tons it will be very bullish for gold as it will highlight the growing inability of central banks to affect the market with physical gold. Who is left to meet the shortfall between production and demand? Full Story
By: David N. Vaughn, Gold Letter, Inc. - 21 September, 2006
Anyone out there remember what happens in about 2 month’s time? Yes, the elections. Kind of interesting how the economy seems to straighten up real well always right before a major election, huh? But really I care not a lick why gold has descended recently as it matters not at all as the overall fundamentals have not changed. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 21 September, 2006
Let the Dow Industrial Average get within a hundred points of new record highs, as it did yesterday, and America’s economic troubles seem to melt like lemon drops. “I think this market action is telling us that the economy may be past its worst point,” Wells Capital’s James Paulsen told the Wall Street Journal, evidently inspired by yesterday’s 72-point gain in the blue chip average. Paulsen will have to ratchet up the hubris if he wants to be a contender for the Professor Irving Fisher Award. Fisher, you may recall, was the economist who was immortalized after saying, just a few days before the 1929 Crash, that stocks had “reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.” Full Story
By: Louis James & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 20 September, 2006
-Do we have a "second sight"? Or is it just common sense? -A hedge fund famine...we all know what follows booms... -We are asphyxiating on laughing gas...new report shows that the housing slowdown may have a negative effect on people...and more! Full Story
This year Domino Day is on November 14. By November 14 two more Fed meetings will be in the bag, the ominous month of October will be in the rear view mirror, and the US midterm elections will be over. In other words, by November 14 we will have a clearer understanding of whether the Thailand coup and Amaranth collapse were important events for the financial markets, or hiccups akin to the krona’s slide early this year and demise of funds like MotherRock. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The MOGAMBO GURU - 20 September, 2006
The Federal Reserve spent last week lowering Total Fed Credit by $5.6 billion, which means that, apparently, they are, indeed, pausing in their long-running concerted efforts to destroy the defenseless dollar by continual over-issuance of more money and credit. And, on top of that, the Treasury engineered a $2.3 billion drop in actual cash from the economy last week, too. Not, I hasten to add, the things from which economic paradise is made, but its polar opposite, which is economic hell, which may partially explain my glum expression and sour disposition. Full Story
By: Byron King & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 19 September, 2006
-Everything that rises must converge...what does it mean when a hedge fund goes public? -Americans are among the most cash-strapped in the world...the West needs water... -The interesting history Chateau de Malesherbes holds...and more! Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 19 September, 2006
If the stock market is about to get short-squeezed to new record highs, a possibility I raised here the other day, what would be the catalyst? A plausible answer can be glimpsed in the very interesting letter that I received recently from a Rick’s Picks subscriber, a man in the construction business who says things don’t look too bad from where he’s sitting, at least not right now they don’t. The subscriber’s long-term outlook is very bearish but he is nonetheless willing to accept that the U.S. economy is not quite ready to go down the toilet. Full Story
By: The Mogambo Guru & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 18 September, 2006
-The jury is still out on what kind of landing the housing market will have...but we think the ailing avian in the housing mine will soon be thoroughly woozy... -Drama on the Eurostar...an example of what you can get when you throw enough money around... -Why we love Europe...and more! Full Story
In the first hour this week, I lead off with a recap of the top market headlines. Bob Chapman and I listen to excerpts from Benjamin Graham's classic, The Intelligent Investor. Next, Fox TV's Jonathan Honig joins Gary Kaltbaum and I in a GoldSeek.com Market Panel discussion. Gary is short oil stocks and mid caps and likes the technology and retail sectors. He thinks gold will find a bottom near $550. Jonathan Honig thinks its possible for gold to climb as high as $2,000, but he's not bullish on the market at this point. Jon believes the falling dollar remains an ignored trend that will remain intact for some time to come. He shares three stocks on his radar screen. Plus, Jack Chan tells us that the crude oil market is in a free fall and why he expects the market to fall to $60 per barrel. Jack remains bullish on precious metals for the long term.
In the second hour, legendary commentator and forecaster, Peter Grandich examines the profound correlation between gold demand and the jewelry industry. In fact, 70% of all gold supply is consumed by the jewelry market. Peter, expects the recent pullback in precious metals to find a strong floor as jewelry fabricators absorb the discounted yellow metal. As a result, he thinks gold prices will soar in the 4th quarter due to jewelry demand alone. Like most our guests, he thinks the dollar is doomed and that the inverse relationship with gold approaches 85%. Peter likes silver and believes the metal will move even faster than gold. You won't want to miss his ultimate key to investing, it might save your portfolio as well as your peace of mind. Peter expects gold to rise first to a thousand dollars per ounce and then double from that level. And congratulations to our listener Carlton P. Carlton won this weeks contest hands down with his gold price forecast of $593. He will receive my autographed copy of Joe Granville's latest book. Remember to bookmark commentary.goldseek.com for your daily source of leading precious metals news and commentary. Full Story
Organizers of Silver Summit 2006 are pleased to announce that 40 of the world’s premiere silver mining and exploration companies will participate in this year’s Summit, scheduled for Sept. 21-22 at the Coeur d’Alene Inn in Coeur d’Alene, Idaho, and Sept. 23-24 in Wallace, Idaho. Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 17 September, 2006
Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase and Citigroup engineered the last attack on gold, which took it down some $200. During that caper the US Treasury dumped 500 tons of gold on the market in the high $600s. This time it’s shorts and derivatives and perhaps some bullion selling. We’ll find out in due time. We will say this time there is a full court press to convince the world that commodities and gold and silver have topped out and lower inflation is on the way. This, of course, is ludicrous. Full Story
If the gold price is going to rise to $900 an ounce then gold at under $600 an ounce is starting to look attractive again, but there is still downside risk in base metals and until the gold price uncouples from base metals prices I would not get too aggressive on the buy side. But gold will decouple, because unlike base metals, its value (and long-term price) is not dependent on economic growth. Full Story
By: John Mauldin, Millenium Wave Advisors - 17 September, 2006
The market, my various mentors have all told me, is designed to cause the most pain to the largest number of people. And while I am not in pain, the recent move up in the various market indices is certainly not in keeping with my thoughts that the economy is going to slow down and thus should exert downward pressure on the equity markets. Has the world transitioned to a kinder, gentler Mr. Market? Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 17 September, 2006
Considering the viciousness of the short-squeeze on September put options that bears just endured, we might well ask what lies in store for us in October? Logic suggests that if the pessimists were willing to bet heavily on a September crash, as they evidently were, then they will bet even more aggressively on a crash in October, historically the worst month for stocks. If so, the stock-market downturn that so many of us have been expecting, particularly those of us who have closely tracked the scary decline in real estate prices, could conceivably turn into a spectacular, last-gasp rally – the Mother of All Bear Traps, if you will. Full Story
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