No matter the debates over inflation vs. deflation, increasing employment vs. sound monetary policy or systemic health vs. fragility (and whatever else is flying around in Jackson Hole this week), the CPI marches onward and upward. That is the system and it is predicated on creating enough money out of thin air while inflation signals are (somehow) held at bay. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 22 August, 2014
As always unafraid of controversy, the New Orleans Investment Conference in October will feature a debate on the question of whether central banks manipulate the gold market, with your secretary/treasurer arguing in the affirmative and Casey Research founder Doug Casey arguing in the negative. The debate will be moderated by money manager, financial commentator, and fellow New Orleans Investment Conference speaker Adrian Day. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 22 August, 2014
Gold has slid during this past week on mounting fears of interest-rate hikes. Between the latest FOMC meeting’s minutes and the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, American futures speculators’ rising-rate phobias have been whipped into a fever pitch. They worry gold will be crushed when the Fed eventually starts normalizing rates. But history shatters this fallacy that rising rates are gold’s nemesis. Full Story
In this next chapter of Useful Idiots and the Something for Nothing Society, we will put the final nails into a century’s UNFOLDING MADNESS. A country of free men has been transformed into an authoritarian state on its road to totalitarianism as the final denouement unfolds under their policies. The final connecting dots of from whence we came, where we are today, and the inevitable destination of societal and economic collapse of empire as has been seen throughout history and Austrian economics. Full Story
Note that gold has had two major bull markets, in the 1970s and in the 2000s. The major rise in the 70s didn’t break its bull market red uptrend until several years after the peak in 1980. The bull market red uptrend since 2001, however, is still intact. On a big picture basis, it’ll be important to see if this trend holds. That is, as long as gold stays above the lows of last year, at $1210, this trend will stay solid. Full Story
A positive for gold is that China just allowed three more banks, including a foreign lender, to import gold into China. This is yet another sign that China, the world’s largest gold buyer, is getting very serious about making Shanghai a gold trading hub. Fifteen banks are now licensed to import gold into China. Licensing does not mean the banks have to import at this moment. They will begin to import when gold demand picks up. What’s important is that this is a very important step being made my China to make it a very important player both in determining gold fix prices and in trade. Full Story
I was originally going to do the Weekend Report on the very long term charts for the markets but after last Friday’s trading I decided to mix it up a bit with some shorter term charts. It seems like everyone is either looking for that 10% to 15% correction right here before the stock markets can go higher or many looking for the top that will lead to a bear market. That is possible but I would like to show you some charts that maybe saying this correction is over and the next impulse leg up is now getting underway. You never know 100% for sure if you are right until you can look back in hindsight. With that said lets look at some charts starting with the INDU. Full Story
As the 60-year cycle enters its final few weeks of descent, a few conclusions can be made. We can also make some projections as to what the foreseeable future might hold based on the upcoming bottom of this important economic cycle. Full Story
There will be a defining geopolitical event next month when India, Pakistan, Iran and Mongolia become full members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). This will increase the population of SCO members to an estimated 3.05 billion. We should care about this because it is the intention of the SCO to do away with the US dollar for trade settlement. Full Story
The bearish pattern shown makes clear where December Gold is headed, and the weight of it looks too great to suggest that any other outcome is possible. With the stock market eking out new record highs each day, interest in bullion is on the wane. However, although gold (and silver) may act dispirited, there is little technical evidence of an impending rout. For that reason, I would encourage you to bottom-fish aggressively at the 1257.70 target, albeit with a very tight stop-loss. With a free trial subscription, you can join us at ringside in the Rick’s Picks chat room if you think you might enjoy the thrill of stalking The Top. Full Story
Since finding a low in the first week of August, the S&P 500 hasn't wasted much time, closing positive in seven sessions out of nine and narrowing the gap from its 27th record close this year - way back on July 24th. With Yellen flying into Jackson Hole this week to enjoy some good old fashion Rooseveltian eco-tourism, the point spreads have come in considerably for those betting on number 28. Data mining the mountain some more, over the past seven years with the inspiring majesty of the Tetons in the background, stocks have rallied on what the Fed Chair has to say. Full Story
The 20th century was a century of wars. But then so were all the other centuries. The 21st century is so far no different. Trying to estimate the number killed in wars during the 20th century is nigh on impossible. It is estimated that upwards of 250 million were killed in military combat, civilian collateral, democide or deliberate famines. But it could be more. There were wars in every year of the 20th century and there have been wars every year so far in the 21st century. The USA has been involved in a war of some sort every year since its founding by revolution in 1775. Full Story
John Smith, the President/CEO/Director of Silver Standard Resources, chats with Cambridge House Live anchor Vanessa Collette at the Sprott Natural Resources Symposium. The conversation covers Silver Standard's efforts to diversify risk away from their operations in Argentina; efforts the company has made to cut back costs; and what the future has in store. Excellent information for serious silver investors. Full Story
For many a car lover, retiring rich requires the end of a lifelong love affair. I empathize with them all; I’ve had my own romance over the last 50-plus years. Cars have a special resonance for people of my generation. George Lucas’ classic coming of age film American Graffiti is proof positive of that. As teens we flocked to auto dealers when new models came out and fantasized about actually being able to own our favorite. And let’s face it: cool cars were chick magnets. In our 20s and 30s, with the help of a friendly finance company, those dreams became reality, and every few years we’d get the new car itch again. Full Story
It’s not the destination; it’s the journey. I’m sure you’ve heard that old saw many times. Well, in this case, that’s all wrong. As Yellen & Co. nears the start of the first rate-hike cycle we’ve seen since the summer of 2004 to the summer of 2006, the Fed’s ultimate destination with interest rates is the only subject that really matters. Full Story
In 1999, Rudi P. Fronk and Jim Anthony set out to create something outlandish: a gold company. At a time when gold was deeply out of favor and trading around $279/ounce, they set out an ambitious five year plan: discover five million ounces of gold and achieve a $5 share price at $500/oz gold. Flash forward to today, a decade and a half later the company has discovered 80 million ounces of resources, the gold price is around $1300 and the share price is barely twice their target. Full Story
Tekoa Da Silva, an investment executive with Sprott Global, chats with Cambridge House Live anchor Vanessa Collette at the Sprott Natural Resource Symposium in Vancouver. A wide ranging discussion, they touch on how one can become a member of the "4 percent" and why West Africa (and Liberia in particular) is a great investment opportunity. Excellent viewing for bona fide investors. Full Story
Pierre Lassonde is one of the ‘superstars’ of the resource sector. He co-founded Franco-Nevada, the largest royalty and streaming company in the mining sector. The company was acquired by Newmont Mining in 2002, and then split off in ’07 at a value of $1.2 billion. Its current market cap is nearly $9 billion.1 On the phone from his home in the South of France, he shared what he feels are some of his most valuable insights on investing. Full Story
Florian Siegfried, head of precious metals and mining investments with Switzerland-based AgaNola Ltd., knows where the music is playing in the mining M&A space. In this interview with The Gold Report, Siegfried notes that well-financed juniors with low production and capital costs, or intermediate cash-flowing producers will be hitting the M&A high notes. Full Story
I have written several times regarding the size of COMEX futures going into delivery periods. It is time to do this again with silver. The September delivery month has 65,000 contracts still open. This represents 325 million ounces of silver. The "registered" category at COMEX now has just over 60 million ounces available for deliver. If you tally up the entire inventory, this is roughly 175 million ounces. Full Story
We have been getting some email heckling recently. Oddly enough from interests apparently sympathetic to Gold and Silver sellers of paper futures on the COMEX bourse in New York City. We won’t repeat their comments in these pages – no sense in giving them any credibility – but it is nice to get some notice from some of them … in a manner of speaking. Full Story
Like training for a marathon, investing in gold isn’t for the apathetic or indifferent. It requires strong-willed discipline. Coming into 2014, gold was in a depressed state. The metal had lost over 28 percent the previous year, its greatest slide since 1980. Investors who dropped out of the race in January no doubt regretted the decision in March after watching the metal unexpectedly soar to above $1,300 an ounce. Full Story
Are you prepared for an “exit”? If the Fed pursues an “exit” from ultra low interest rate policy, are you prepared for an exit from the stock market should things turn South? We discuss how investors prepare, noting the most common mistakes investors make along the way. No, you are not. We know because we meet investment advisers that have dropped their defensive strategies because they were losing clients. Those we meet that say they are prepared think they can get out at the right time should the markets topple over as the Fed exits; our guess is pigs will learn to fly before many will get that timing right. And those who don’t rely on luck are the first to tell us they don’t think they are fully prepared, as it’s rather difficult to predict how things will unfold. Full Story
As the yearly end of summer doldrums engulf the Hamptons, the uber-wealthy position themselves for a rocky coming storm when the robust fall trading season begins. Some of the most memorable major equity collapses happen during this time of year. Logic, fundamentals and sound business analysis has very little to do in forecasting when the actual plug will be pulled on the rocket ride in stocks. In a rigid game, the house always knows when and at what time the fleecing of the mark happens. Such timing projections do not apply to the decline in the purchasing power of the dollar. More appropriately, Federal Reserve Notes are only compulsory money because of the legal tender laws. Yet, financial instruments are gauged in terms of their worth by the dollar redemption value they produce. Full Story
Arguably London’s most accurate gold forecaster for the past 15 years, Sharps Pixley CEO Ross Norman is warning of single digit gains only for the yellow metal this year, though he has not lost his sights on ‘very much higher prices’ in 2015-16. His gold forecast last year suggested that 2014 would be a ‘goldilocks’ year – not too hot and not too cold – with rally fade to both the upside and downside as the market reverted to the mean – so far that view appears to have held true. Full Story
In any market, but especially precious metals, price pullbacks rarely proceed according to expectations. Most “buying opportunities” are perhaps better defined as gulags and torture chambers. Regardless, it’s almost impossible to build retained wealth without enduring a significant amount of pain, so please click here now. That’s the weekly CRB general commodity index chart. I’ve suggested that 2014 is a key year of transition, away from system risk and deflation, towards some growth and lots of inflation. Lead by gold, the CRB began the year with a strong rally, as the Fed began to taper its QE program. The rally lost momentum in March, and a decline began in June. Full Story
This past week we saw the hedge fund industry release their 13F filings which showed their holdings as of June 30th. The most famous and arguably the most successful hedge fund manager is George Soros. If you know about George Soros, you may or may not like his politics or his beliefs, I personally don't. No matter what you think of the man, he does know how to make money on large outsized moves which have a tendency to happen in very compressed timeframes. Full Story
Bigger, faster, better. That’s the turbocharged investment we all want. Miller’s Money Forever subscribers who pay close attention to our portfolio, though, will notice that we don’t hold leveraged ETFs—those with “2x” or “inverse” or “ultra” in their names, which some investors mistake for “better.” Full Story
In 1950 the US owned about 20,000 metric tons of gold – approximately 640,000,000 troy ounces. By August 15, 1971 when President Nixon “temporarily” closed the “gold window” that hoard had decreased to about 8,100 tons (Fort Knox, the NY Fed, and other locations). The US government had been overspending, exporting dollars oversees, and other governments had “cashed in” those dollars for gold. At that rate of decrease, the US gold hoard would have been entirely dissipated by now. Perhaps it is gone! Full Story
Representing all things big, institutional investors believe there is no inflation. The market "behaves" as if there is none. This undercuts value at risk. But reality is very different. Across the board, price is determined by a broken system fueled by an unsound economy. (The developing Ebola pandemic may serve as an example and a warning). Full Story
Björn Paffrath, Switzerland-based fund adviser and newsletter writer, is so convinced that we've seen the bottom in the mining sector that he's launching a new gold and silver fund in Europe. He says capital is trickling back into long-forgotten mining equities as the smart money seeks to rotate out of frothier sectors and into real assets. In this interview with The Gold Report, Paffrath forecasts a broad market correction and advises investors on how to ride the impending minerals wave to strong portfolio gains. Full Story
The 2008 Financial Crisis is often attributed to a sudden freeze in liquidity in the Shadow Banking System stemming from borrower default problems within the securitization of Mortgage debt. Full Story
The usual fare at our conferences has much more to do with how to keep your money safe (and invest it to grow, of course). But we always prefer to mix in a few speakers to give us a real, on the ground reality check of what’s happening to our freedoms. Thus, when we invited constitutional law and criminal defense attorney Marc J. Victor to speak, we expected he'd share his insights into a slowly eroding respect for individual rights. He did not. Instead, he showed us just how bad things are getting and at a breakneck pace just beyond the public eye. Full Story
From 1999-2002, my oilfield service research team at Salomon Smith Barney was ranked by Institutional Investor magazine as one of the best in the industry. For fundamental analysts, this is the equivalent of an Academy Award; and trust me, we earned it! Back then, financial markets were for all intents and purposes, freely-traded; with few exceptions like precious metals of course. Then again, even PMs weren’t controlled that much back then, as TPTB did not yet fear their message. Full Story
In the first of this three-part series on managing expectations, I discussed the role cycles play in the investment management process. At U.S. Global Investors, we actively monitor both short- and long-term cycles, from the annual seasonality of gold to four-year presidential elections, in order to manage expectations based on historical patterns. Full Story
Who could forget the feel good tones first piped out by the Beach Boys some 50 years ago now – good good good – good vibrations. Just thinking about this tune is enough to get one off their feet and grooving. That’s the feel good part of this piece today, as it all goes down hill from here because we are about to discuss salient features of our present day economy. Back in the 60’s we still had the ‘great inflation’ and the ‘good vibrations’ this created in the economy ahead with the US (Nixon) going off the Gold Standard. Full Story
Around mid-morning on Friday we heard news that the Ukraine had "destroyed part of a Russian convoy". The stock market immediately dropped nearly 200 points, Treasury bonds were bid 10 basis points lower, oil was higher and gold which had been hammered $20 lower earlier ran back to unchanged. I do want to mention that "the sale" which knocked gold down was some $2 billion worth of COMEX futures. $2 billion, this would amount to a little more than 1 week's production from ALL mines in the ENTIRE world. Again, "who" would ever sell their product in this fashion where they receive THE worst price of the week? Full Story
Bears would claim that miners are most overbought since late 2011 peak and therefore should be primed for another correction. On the other hand, bulls would claim that miners participation is the strongest in thee years, just as the index attempts to breakout from its basing pattern. In my opinion, the wisest thing to do is to sit still and wait for the market to reveal its hand. Also be very ware of false breakouts as well. Full Story
Below is a combo chart that shows the TLT:GLD ratio chart on top and the GLD on the bottom. This chart shows you when the ratio is falling GLD is rising and when the ratio is rising GLD is falling. Notice back in 2008 the ratio was at its high and GLD was at its low. As you can see the ratio fell during the next three years while gold put in its all time high at 1920 in September of 2011. From that all time high in GLD to the low in the ratio chart, GLD has been falling while the ratio has been rising. Full Story
Over the past few weeks, geo-political tensions have increased in various parts of the world and we have also experienced a sovereign debt default. Despite these developments, the majority of the stock markets have held up relatively well and so far, we have not witnessed any panic-fueled liquidation of assets. Full Story
The wave of cash that flowed into U.S. Treasurys late last week should serve to remind us of the myriad ways investors can profit by betting on a rise in T-bonds prices and a corresponding decline in yields (details below). All it took to set these flows in motion on Friday was some unsettling news from Ukraine. What was the news? That’s the point. Whatever it was, it barely registered on a global-crisis scale so weary of horrifying headlines that no story, no matter how ugly, stays above the fold for more than a few days. Even so, the news from Ukraine was sufficient to coax idle cash from around the world into U.S. debt paper. Just imagine what would happen if a real crisis unfolded. Full Story
Summary - Harry S. Dent Junior: Gold is poised to rally back to $1,360 per ounce and perhaps much higher; A restructuring of debt and assets on a massive scale is inevitable; Equities have at best 5% upside opportunity left and 65% downside; Housing is 40% overvalued - patience will be rewarded with bargain prices. Summary - David Morgan: The silver market bottom is in place, with an 85% confidence level; Nevertheless, avoid the temptation to buy the precise bottom; Instead, dollar cost averaging into silver positions in anticipation of the next big Elliott Wave, parabolic advance in 2015-2016, is advisable; Silver's current nominal intrinsic-value is at least $35 an ounce. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 17 August, 2014
This week the BBC reported some details on a subject of which most gold investors may be generally aware: that mobile telephones typically contain a small amount of gold. Speculating on the prospects for recycling that gold, the BBC concluded that it probably would not accomplish much. Full Story
Stanley Fischer’s comments, unambiguous as they are, might appear to be an act of courage at this juncture, but they might also constitute the dropping of a less than subtle hint. With respect to the gold market, it spells out a message that even the knee-jerk speculators in paper gold might be forced to take into account. If Fischer represents the hawkish position at some level, one would have to assume that the Fed’s hawks might be ready to sound the retreat. Full Story
You can almost feel it in the air. The froth and foam on markets of all shapes and sizes all over the world. It’s exhilarating, and the pundits who populate the media outlets are bubbling over. There’s nothing like a rising market to lift our moods. Unless of course, as Prof. Kindleberger famously cautioned (see below), we are not participating in that rising market. Then we feel like losers. But what if the rising market is … a bubble? Are we smart enough to ride it high and then bail out before it bursts? Research says we all think that we are, yet we rarely demonstrate the actual ability. Full Story
Although we would never dispute that markets often pivot on external catalysts, as we noted recently (see Here) - they often are just instigators of larger forces at play. For every time that a market perceives to be largely driven by breaking news or geopolitical events, we could reference fifty other occasions in which a similar development had no material influence. Full Story
We saw a marked change in market action and leading stocks this past week. After a very slow summer of false moves and chop this past week was much different. Leading stocks and indexes are acting much better and moves are working. I’m still playing with small position sizes and using some options to limit risk and we did get lucky with a nice 50% gainer and a couple that were more than doubles in short order. I’m still not ready to buy heavy into stocks but there are some really nice setups which may deserve a medium weighting in the week ahead. Full Story
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