By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 22 July, 2016
Silver’s young bull market got off to a typically-slow start, lagging gold’s own new bull. But recently the white metal surged to catch up in a record summer rally. That left silver very overbought and facing near-term correction risks led by a record futures selling overhang and weak late-summer seasonals. But this strengthening bull still has a long ways higher to run yet before silver prices reflect prevailing gold levels. Full Story
Over 50% of Americans don’t have enough money to invest in stocks; a scary statistic for a country that claims to be the only superpower left in the world. It makes one wonder at what cost are we maintaining this superpower status when from an economic perspective we appear closer to a third world nation. Americans appear to be living hand to mouth making it harder and harder for the average to focus on his or her financial security. One in seven Americans still depends on food stamps despite this so-called economic recovery. Full Story
It seems I have raised the ire of GATA, yet again, with one of my recent articles. It has struck such a chord that Chris Powell decided to address my article directly the other day. But, sadly, he really said nothing of use, just as GATA provides nothing of use for those whose primary purpose for investing is making money. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 22 July, 2016
The U.S. financial system continues to disintegrate even though most Americans hardly notice. The system is being gutted from the inside out… much the same way a chronic disease weakens a patience even before any symptoms are felt. However, we are already experiencing painful symptoms as U.S. economic indicators continue to weaken. Full Story
Investing in particular gold stocks gives exposure to movements in price of gold, but also to other factors affecting the gold mining industry, as well as company-specific strengths and weaknesses. This is why investors have to bear in mind the trends in the gold market as well as the mining industry, and wisely select appropriate stocks. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 22 July, 2016
There is no evidence, yet, that the long-term bull market is over. Furthermore, such evidence could take more than a year to materialise even if the bull market reaches its zenith this month. The reason is that for a decline to be clearly marked as a downward leg in a new bear market as opposed to a correction in an on-going bull market it would have to do something to differentiate itself from the many corrections that have happened during the course of the bull market. Full Story
We are transitioning into the bubble phase. Yes, there will be corrections along the way. But I guarantee you will not be able to outsmart the bull market. The only people that will make any long term gains on the short side will have massive research departments finding sick companies that are going bankrupt. Retail traders with some charting software are not going to make money selling short. Full Story
Throughout the year I’ve referenced the chart below, which now reflects a large performance differential between the banks and the gold miners, as yields – both nominal and real - have fallen. Although the banks have had a difficult time performing in this environment, gold mining stocks have done exceptionally well, as gold has benefited robustly from both safe-haven demand and from the retracement in real yields, which has made it attractive again from a real return perspective. Full Story
Today’s sharp reversal changed a weak bearish trend into a mildly promising bull trend. The big pattern shown, with a 21.390 target, is valid because a ‘buy’ signal has been tripped at the green line. The signal is ‘counterintuitive’ because of the close proximity in price of lows ‘A’ and ‘C’. Since entry risk using the big pattern is exorbitant, I’d suggest cutting it down to size by using ‘camouflage’. This means finding tradable ABC patterns on the very lesser charts that use impulse legs derived from any of the ten or so ‘external’ peaks (indicated with red arrows) made on the way down since July 12. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 21 July, 2016
Gilburt adds that yesterday's smashing of gold and silver was ordinary market action predicted by his magic charts of technical analysis -- and maybe it was. But how does he or anyone outside central banking know that the market action had nothing to do with government intervention? Can Gilburt's charts penetrate trading rooms of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the Bank of England in London, the Banque de France in Paris, the International Monetary Fund in Washington, and the Bank for International Settlements in Basle? Full Story
The pending Brexit has, not surprisingly, caused a shakeup in the investment world, particularly in the UK. Of particular note is that, recently, asset management firms in Britain began refusing their clients the right to cash out of their mutual funds. Of the £35 billion invested in such funds, just under £20 billion has been affected. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 21 July, 2016
"This study demonstrated that central banks have an economic interest in gold prices and directly and indirectly influence the price of gold. It also illustrated that central banks can only stabilize a falling gold price but not a rising gold price and that the stabilization can work only if it is hidden from the public and coordinated among central banks." Full Story
As you can see, it should have been clear to any objective observer that gold had bottomed and a renewed bull market had begun. That The Banks have used the USDJPY strength and the Spec liquidation surrounding August contract expirations to their advantage should, therefore, come as no surprise. They are attempting the same block-and-stall routine that they put on gold back in March when it broke out of its 3-year down channel. Therefore, expect the same fight now. Full Story
The earliest signs are developing of hyperinflation, more correctly described as a collapse of the purchasing power of all the major government currencies. Central bankers are almost certainly unaware of this danger, partly because their chosen statistics fail to capture it, but mostly because conventional monetary economic theory is lacking in this regard. Full Story
Dr. Stephen Leeb, best selling author and head of The Complete Investor returns to the show. He outlines his soon to be released magnum opus on gold, destined to be his 8th bestseller. According to Dr. Leeb, gold must regain its rightful status as the currency backing asset of choice, even the US dollar will eventually carry gold weighting. Full Story
Sentiment got a little too bearish and price is bouncing off the 38% Fibonacci retracement. Ideally though I’d like to see one more lower low next week to break the cycle uptrend line before trying to call a bottom. I’d like to see a bit more bearish sentiment and some panic selling. DCL’s should create fear and cause traders to think price is rolling over. That usually requires a trend line break to get technical traders on the wrong side of the market before price resumes the uptrend. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambu Guru - 21 July, 2016
Where have I been? I admit I was cowering, like the spineless little weasel that I am, in the Mogambo Secret Temporary Bunker (MSTB), which I cleverly constructed in the living room using an overturned couch and some strategically-placed cushions. That’s where I got an email from Junior Mogambo Ranger (JMR) Phil S., who sent an interesting essay he ran across. It was concerned with what we both, as educated people who recoil in mortal horror at suicidal Keynesian econometric lunacy, are both deeply, deeply concerned. Full Story
As I have been saying for months now, we need to continually look higher in the market, until the market itself tells us otherwise. And, yesterday’s downside set up gave us indications that we may need to be looking down, at least in the short term. But, thus far, important support has not yet been broken. We have thus far held support in GDX, silver and GLD. And, until support does break, I will maintain our prior expectations for our next higher targets. Full Story
It’s important to understand that all of this, while seemingly coming out of left field for mainstream economists and politicians, was completely predictable for both Austrian School economists (who focus on a society’s balance sheet rather than irrelevancies like money supply or aggregate demand, and correctly see rising leverage as a sign of trouble) and pretty much anyone else with basic common sense. Full Story
In a market like silver, where price has not reflected true supply and demand for decades, an interesting syndrome evolves. It can be somewhat of a curse -- and a rational reaction when something seems too good to be true. We are constantly look over our shoulders for that final clever explanation we overlooked for why current prices may actually be a natural expression. Full Story
Summing up, there are quite a few bearish signals for the precious metals market alone but there are very important ones just outside of the sector – the situation in the USD Index is likely to have significant impact on the prices of PMs and it’s likely to be negative (and the likelihood of that happening increased based on this week’s breakout). Once the short-term consolidation in the USD is over and the breakouts (above both the triangle and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement) are confirmed, we are likely to see another sizable upswing in the latter, which is likely to correspond to a decline in gold, silver and mining stocks. Full Story
The mainstream media seems to have an agenda to scare people away from acquiring gold. Don’t even think about it! If you listen to what is said on mainstream TeeVee and what is spread across newswires like the Associated Press (AP), which goes to online/hard copy news organizations around the world, you hear and read the same things over and over. Gold is bad, gold coins are being counterfeited, gold doesn’t pay interest, gold is… fill in the blank. Full Story
First, a little historical background. Municipal bonds were first written into the tax code a little over 100 years ago, in 1913. Since then, they’ve helped finance countless essential public works projects—everything from schools to hospitals, roads to bridges, airports to seaports, sewers to water treatment plants. More than three quarters of all national infrastructure needs have been built and maintained using muni bonds, which investors have been attracted to for their tax-free income. Full Story
As we went to press, the futures were within four ticks of the 1312.10 retracement target sent out to subscribers Tuesday night. Will this minor Hidden Pivot support hold? Even if it does, we’d still need to see a rally surpassing last Friday’s 1339.60 peak before we could infer that correction begun from $1377 on July 6 had run its course. Alternatively, just a little more downside exceeding the 1308.10 low (see inset) would negate the large bullish pattern shown. If this happens and the futures grind lower for yet another day or two, use the small downtrend at the right-hand edge of the chart, with a 1295.50 target, to guide you. Full Story
One of America’s most prominent hedge fund managers is betting the farm that China’s economic troubles are far from over. His bet centers around the U.S. dollar and by extension several Asian currencies. What happens to the dollar from here will determine whether this man’s epic trading positions pays off, and China suffers a major setback, and whether his worst case scenario for the global economic outlook is merely a mirage. If he’s right, the outcome of his bet will also affect the commodities market and perhaps even the equities market. Full Story
Chaitman and Rickards don't seem to have explained why the investment bank keeps getting away with this stuff, but GATA maintains it's because the bank often acts as the agent of the U.S. government in rigging markets -- that JPMorganChase is essentially a U.S. government agency. (Or maybe the U.S. government is a JPMorganChase agency.) Full Story
So maybe we head higher until mid September when the elections get hot and heavy. The market gets volatile and then breaks out again after the elections.
Gold and silver would bottom in about a month and rip higher from mid August up to the elections. Looking at a gold seasonality chart it appears to top in mid July and bottom late July to early August before ripping higher into October/November.
All of this seems to be setting up similar to 87. Full Story
By: Stewart Thomson, Graceland Updates - 19 July, 2016
Ben Bernanke is probably the biggest money printer in the history of America. He is now working hard to convince Japan to lead the world with a huge launch of perpetual bonds.
It’s a scheme to monetize the huge Japanese government deficit. Full Story
So, not only do we gold flowing to all points East, especially into China and Russia, but we have a massive military infrastructure that has no equal. Meanwhile in the West we have ongoing false flag operations, Pokemon Go sweeping the landscape and trade deals that enslave the population instead of building up the population. If we don’t begin paying attention and aligning ourselves with what is happening our children will not stand much of chance. Jim Rogers moved to China for the specific purpose of exposing his children to the next wave of economic forces. Full Story
The key factor in silver is the concentrated short position on the COMEX, which also happens to be the current key factor in gold. Not only am I convinced that the concentrated short position in COMEX silver is the central issue, I am also convinced that wider awareness of its existence will bring about a freeing of the silver price. If the growing numbers of those who’ve discovered the importance of the COT reports and market structure to the price of gold and silver take one additional small step and incorporate the concentration data in their thinking, I believe the impact could be profound. Full Story
Head of the Trends Research Institute, Gerald Celente gives central bank monetary operations a new moniker, Ponzi-nomics. Through the issuance of easy credit, low interest rate bonds encourage corporate share buybacks, a major underpinning of the US stock market advance. Peter Grandich of Peter Grandich and Company rejoins the show with positive comments on the PMs. The physical bullion market is finally overtaking the massive paper short positions, stymieing manipulation schemes. Full Story
The above charts confirm that conditions for gold and silver stocks are looking really good, since lower oil and commodity prices will boost their profit margins. Furthermore, with general stocks (crash still coming), commodities and oil being in a bear market, there will not be much competition for investments into gold, silver and their related stocks, like there was during the first part of the precious metals’ bull market (2001 to 2011). This means that gold, silver and their mining stocks will perform much better than they did during the first part of the bull market. Full Story
I sat down with Michael Noonan, Edge Trader Plus, to get his take on the current state of the silver and gold market. Michaels approach to trading is a little different than most of the other people I speak with in that he simply watches the movement in the charts and tunes out everything else. Full Story
While CNBC and other perma-bulls claim that the stock market is a great investment today, the smart money is already prepping for a disaster. Goldman Sachs has told its clients to “sell at the new high.” Credit Suisse just told its clients stocks “haven’t looked this worrisome since the tech bubble.” They’re correct. Stocks are in a bubble by virtually every reasonable metric. Full Story
There are many ways to gain exposure to movements in the price gold. The most traditional and conservative method is buying bullion (bars or coins). Investors can also buy gold futures at Comex or shares in gold exchange-traded funds. There are dozens of other investment vehicles – better or worst – such as jewelry, certificates, pool accounts, options, structured products, etc., but today we will focus on gold stocks, i.e. shares in gold mining companies. Full Story
I am going to interrupt my regular letter for a few pages, as the events in Turkey in the last 24 hours compel me to offer a few thoughts. Fortunately for you, patient reader, rather than getting my own less-than-expert analysis, you will have that of George and Meredith Friedman, members of the Mauldin Economics team who have been doing geopolitical analysis for 40 years and who have serious connections in Turkey. We will open this week’s letter by looking at George’s brief take of the actual meaning of what is going on in Turkey, as events continue to play out there. Full Story
Odds of a run-up to as high as 2313.50 shortened last week when the futures speared a 2147.50 ‘midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance’ associated with the target (see inset). Although the breach amounted to a relatively moderate 20 points, it was sufficient to imply that the target, along with a secondary one at 2230.50, be taken seriously, especially by traders and investors skeptical that the bull market could have so much life remaining. If the target is achieved, it would equate to a Dow rally of about 1300 points. Full Story
Another solid week for stocks who are resting but trending upwards and acting as they should still which is a great, great change. Finally, we’re making money. We’ve had a sideways market since late 2014 which made it tricky to really make much since trades had to be quick and many just didn’t work but for now, the action is strong and predictable. The metals are consolidating nicely and ready to move higher in the week ahead now with silver still acting better than gold and leading the charge. Full Story
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