It is my privilege now to welcome in Gerald Celente, publisher of the renowned Trends Journal. Mr. Celente is perhaps the most well-known trends forecaster in the world, and it's always great to have him on with us. Gerald, thanks for taking the time again today, and welcome back. Full Story
On Wall Street, it's best not to think too hard or to look too closely into the mouths of gift horses. Since making predictions based on actual economic understanding is rare, analysts typically look to provide explanations after the fact. Within the financial services industry, currency traders are perhaps the greatest practitioners of this craft. While they often get the fundamentals completely wrong, it never seems to stop them from offering bizarre theories to explain currency movements. Full Story
The gold miners’ stocks are drifting listlessly in the summer doldrums, largely forgotten by investors and speculators. They are missing a fantastic opportunity to buy low in this barren sentiment wasteland when no one else wants to. The gold stocks remain exceedingly cheap relative to the metal which drives their profits, and they continue to establish a strong technical base. They are ready to soar as gold returns to favor. Full Story
It has been a while since we’ve had a 3 Amigos update because a) Italy and global tariffs noise aside, nothing much has changed with the macro and b) I felt my ‘image-based metaphorical content to straight content’ ratio was getting a little excessive. So I gave it a rest. Full Story
We can’t fix an excessive debt problem with more debt. (Central bankers disagree…) We can’t support a more expensive military and federal government with a decreasing work force, massive debt and weak economy. (Governments disagree…) Unbacked paper money always returns to its intrinsic value – zero. (Most of the world lives in denial.) Full Story
Yields are rising. The global economy has adapted so far without any major problems. So far. But how long can this last? And what does it ultimately mean for the gold market? Let’s look at the chart below. As one can see, the U.S. long-term interest rates have been rising since September 2017. And they breached 3 percent in the second quarter of 2018, attracting investors’ attention all over the world. Full Story
Home prices are still rising pretty much everywhere in the US, with California as usual leading the way. State-wide, the median CA home is now above $600,000, up 9% year over year. In San Francisco County, homebuyers are paying an average of 18% above the asking price, and price per square foot is now more than $1,000. Full Story
Conventional wisdom is that an inversion of the yield curve (short-term interest rates moving above long-term interest rates) signals that a recession is coming, but this is only true to the extent that a recession is always coming. A reversal in the yield curve from flattening to steepening is a far more useful signal. Full Story
Gold and silver markets entered this summer with sentiment toward the metals in something of a deep freeze. For several months, precious metals prices have gone essentially nowhere. No sustained rallies to attract momentum traders; no washout plunges to attract bargain hunters. The long, protracted stalemate between bulls and bears has frustrated metals investors and, frankly, bored the public. Full Story
Today's missive is going to be brief as there are no need for words when you have the chart below indicating every major low in gold was accompanied by an RSI reading below 30. GLD (the physical gold ETF) is sporting a 27.46 RSI this morning and while we have seen readings lower than this at other bottoming periods, it is time to open a 25% position in the GLD July $120 calls at $1.40, where I was filled shortly after the New York opening. I am now attempting to add a second 25% tranche at $1.50 with the current market $1.54. Full Story
Thirty-year mortgage rates might have ticked up in the past 12 months, but for now that doesn’t seem to be weighing on new home demand. According to the Commerce Department, housing starts climbed to an 11-year high of 1.35 million units in May, a clear sign that the market has continued to improve following the subprime mortgage crisis a decade ago. This is constructive—pun fully intended—not only for the economy but also consumption of building materials, energy and resources. Full Story
The relationship between silver and the Dow is such that significant Dow peaks are often followed by significant silver rallies. It is for this reason that silver can provide a great opportunity to bank Dow profits and even grow them much bigger. Full Story
The decline in gold, silver and mining stocks continued yesterday, further increasing profits on our short position. But, since gold is already in the $1,260s, and our target area is $1,250 - $1,260, one should prepare for a nearby reversal. Indeed, one should be prepared, but it doesn’t mean placing an exit order just yet. Apart from the price moving closer to our target of $1,250 - $1,260, we haven’t seen significant bullish confirmations that would invalidate the bearish case. Full Story
Gold’s reaction is quite puzzling. There was a flight to safety, as the U.S. dollar rose (and Treasury yields declined), but – as Chart 2 shows – the price of the yellow metal dropped below $1,280. Gold’s weakness in the face of global turmoil and investors’ worries is rather bearish and it could not be fully justified by the greenback’s strength. Full Story
As stated last week, though EFP use between Bullion Banks in New York and London has grown over the past several years, the ongoing spike in use has caught our attention. At the current run rate, total volume of COMEX contracts "exchanged for physical" in London looks to exceed 8,500 metric tonnes for calendar year 2018. Again, that's 8,500 metric tonnes. For perspective, the entire world will only mine about 2,800 metric tonnes this year, and the entire LBMA vault system—once you exclude Bank of England gold and gold pledged to ETFs—only holds 858 metric tonnes. Full Story
Just a quick update on a few of the GLD charts we’ve been following closely. Below is the daily line chat which shows the breakout from the blue triangle that formed as the backtest to the larger 5 point bearish falling wedge reversal pattern. The bulls tried as hard as they could but they couldn’t take out the bottom rail of the falling wedge reversal pattern. Friday’s decline was on heavy volume. Full Story
Back in 2011, when the metals were approaching their highs, most analysts were suggesting that investors keep buying gold as this would be their last opportunity before gold eclipses $2,000, never to look back again. Moreover, these same analysts remained bullish throughout the decline during 2012, 2013, 2014 and most of 2015. Amazingly, as we approached the end of 2015, these same analysts ultimately turned bearish, and were just as confident that gold would certainly break below $1,000 as they were confident that gold would certainly eclipse $2,000 in 2011. It truly is amazing how markets work against the masses. Full Story
The usually suspect gold bugs and perma-bulls have been quite noisy over the last few weeks trying to convince bullion traders and stock speculators that the price of gold and ergo, the market capitalization of gold stocks are on the verge of a big break-out to the upside. And the unholy believers amongst this cult are still predicting $2000 or $5000 or even $10,000 an ounce, just as they have since the global economic crisis nearly 10 years ago. Full Story
Although the broad averages have risen sharply in each of the last three sessions, none of these short-squeeze lollapaloozas has recouped the even bigger losses sustained earlier in the day. Do we detect a pattern here? The biztainment media seem to wax enthusiastic whenever stocks trampoline off some ugly low like Tuesday’s. But we shouldn’t lose sight of the fact that if the three-steps-down, two-steps-up dynamic witnessed in recent days were to continue for long enough, the Dow would eventually fall to zero. Full Story
All that’s technically in play right now is a pullback from the breakout zone and that’s very healthy. Note the rise in volume from 1998-2002. That came ahead of the runaway action in the price. The exact same thing is happening now. Gold and silver investors should have absolute confidence in their holdings… and look to eagerly accumulate more! Full Story
The precious metals sector is on a long-term buy signal. Short term is on mixed signals. The cycle is up. COT data is supportive for overall higher metal prices. We are holding gold-related ETFs for long-term gain. Full Story
The first thing that strikes you when watching Powell’s press conference is his style. He is more plain-spoken than Yellen, who liked academic mumbo-jumbo, or Alan Greenspan, who said he’d mastered the art of mumbling “with great incoherence.” Instead, Powell styles himself as Chairman for People who wants to improve transparency. Full Story
The U.S. inflation story made further inroads this month, with year-over-year price growth for consumers and producers alike hitting multiyear highs. U.S. consumer prices expanded at their strongest pace in more than six years, climbing to an annual change of 2.8 percent in May. Prices for final demand goods, meanwhile, grew 3.1 percent, their strongest annual surge since December 2011. Full Story
Europe is frequently held up as an example of how the rest of the world should behave on a variety of issues. But this comparison misses at least two things: First, “Europe” is actually a lot of different countries in a lot of different situations. Second, much of what seems to work over there only does so because it’s being financed with ever-increasing amounts of debt. Full Story
Index futures are getting pummeled for the second straight night, supposedly because of heightened tariff fears. How is it that these fears lay dormant throughout Monday’s boring session, only to resurface like Kilauea lava during off-hours trading? As a former floor trader myself, I’d attribute this dynamic to the ease with which stocks can be manipulated when there’s no one around. In this case, the goal of the sleazeballs who dominate thin markets is to exhaust sellers, the better to run stocks up bears’ old wazoo when they come to their trading screens in the morning. This is what happened Sunday night: a volume-less selloff equivalent to nearly 200 Dow points was reversed at the opening bell by an almost-as-gratuitous rally. Full Story
“A special place in hell” so said Peter Navarro, the U.S. senior trade advisor directed at Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. His statement was directed at Trudeau for engaging in bad-faith diplomacy with U.S. President Donald Trump. He later apologized, but the damage was done. Trudeau was also accused of “betrayal” and that the U.S. was “stabbed in the back” according the U.S.’s chief economic advisor Larry Kudlow. President Donald Trump later followed all of that he’d punish “the people of Canada” because of PM’s Justin Trudeau’s news conference. Full Story
The best performing metal this week was silver, down just 1.37 percent. Gold traders and analysts were bullish on the yellow metal due to speculation that the now confirmed interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve could ease the dollar’s rally, according to Bloomberg. It is of interest to note that over the last three weeks gold stocks, as measured by the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index, have outperformed bullion by 121 basis points. Full Story
In light of the developing trade war between the US and China, let’s review the all-important Semiconductor sector and in particular, the Semi Equipment segment, which is a key economic early bird (and canary in a coal mine). Various sectors took hits on Friday as Trump moved forward with Tariffs on China. But most of those sectors and industries are follow-on aspects of the economic cycle, which got its start when the early bird chirped in early 2013. Full Story
The main takeaway from this week is that the market has formed a temporary top for ES at 2796. It could be treated as a double top pattern (against the March highs region) if this upcoming week flushes back into lower end support. Conversely, if the bulls during this upcoming week are able to breakout above 2796 along with follow through above the 2800-2807 March highs region, then this past week was just simply a high level consolidation pattern. Full Story
The pressure on the current monetary establishment has been building steadily. Just because gold and silver has not made a major move up, does not mean that the terminal illness of the international monetary system has now gone away. On the contrary, its imminent demise is now more certain, given the various financial confirmations over the last couple of years (see my other writings). Full Story
Oil prices are up over the past year, which is bad if you’re, say, a developing country that imports a lot of the stuff. But the US dollar (aka the petrodollar) is also up, which compounds the problem because oil is priced in dollars. So Brazil, for instance, finds itself buying an appreciating necessity that’s priced in an appreciating. Full Story
We have been writing about capital destruction. This week let’s look at an event which is currently making news. Social Security will begin tapping into its trust fund this year. This happens, as the Social Security Board of Trustees states antiseptically, “four years earlier than projected in last year's report.” In other words, the economy is growing by every conventional measure, yet Social Security is spending more than its tax revenues years earlier than projected. According to those same inaccurate projections, the trust fund won’t run dry until 2034. Full Story
I hadn’t planned on submitting anything this weekend, however in light of Friday’s action I felt it may be useful. After Friday’s smashing in the commodities and precious metals market many investors are now rattled and may have bailed from the sector already. It is not my purpose to recommend holding or selling, however I would like to lay out for you what is going on beneath the surface…the process that the markets are undergoing. Full Story
I am going to do a larger degree overview of the DXY, since I have not done one in while, and I have been getting a number of questions about it of late. So, if you are following along, please take a look at the attached monthly chart, as I go through the progression of where I think we are in the larger degree time frames. Full Story
In 2014, Singapore stopped printing the mammoth S$10,000 banknote, one of the world's largest value banknotes, citing "risks associated with large value cash transactions." Although it is no longer being printed, the S$10,000, which is worth around US$7,400, remains in circulation and continues to be accepted as legitimate legal tender. But once deposited in the banking system, all S$10,000 notes will be returned to the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS)—the institution responsible for issuing notes and setting monetary policy—to be destroyed. With no new ones being created, the supply of S$10,000 can be expected to steadily shrink. Full Story
Fed week is exciting for some. Gold bulls and bugs alike hope the Fed will do something or say something that will trigger a huge move in precious metals. It doesn’t work like that. The Fed follows the market, which for the Fed Funds rate (FFR) is the 2-year yield. The 2-year yield has been screaming higher over the past 12 months and it implies at least another two rate hikes in the future. Full Story
Sifting through Twitter, I came across a curious assertion posited as a reply to a post on “unemployment” on Steph Pomboy’s twitter feed (@spomboy). The tweeter asked, “have you noticed that gold is being dumped?” But was gold “dumped?” Perhaps the tweeter should have qualified the question with the adjective, “paper,” in front of the word “gold.” Full Story
Professor Laurence Kotlikoff, author of the FREE book: You're Hired! says gold and silver investors could emerge victorious. What could drive PMs prices higher? Our trading "partners" are already starting to make it clear that they don't need us. Bill Murphy of GATA.org notes the risk / reward scenario for precious metals investors may have never been this favorable. The massive JP Morgan silver short position and it's potential to cause an epic short-squeeze, sending the price of silver skyward. Full Story
The gold price edged quietly lower in Far East and London trading on their Fridays -- and was down about 4 dollars by the COMEX open in New York yesterday morning. JPMorgan et al were laying in wait. The low of the day was set right at the COMEX close -- and it crawled about five dollars or so higher until around 3 p.m. EDT in the not-so-thinly-traded after-hours market. It didn't do much after that. Full Story
In describing various economic train wrecks these last few weeks, I may have given the wrong impression about trains. I love riding the train on the East Coast or in Europe. They’re usually a safe and efficient way to travel. And I can sit and read and work, plus not deal with airport security. Full Story
Interviewed this week by Craig Hemke of the TF Metals Report for Sprott Money News, financial commentator Doug Casey charges that complaints of gold market manipulation by governments are "ridiculous" and "laughable" because governments "don't care" about gold. Casey adds that while GATA's officers are "nice" and "sincere" people, "they really wear tinfoil hats when they start talking about this stuff." Full Story
Certain areas of the world are more vulnerable to economic and societal collapse. While most analysts gauge the strength or weakness of an economy based on its outstanding debt or debt to GDP ratio, there is another factor that is a much better indicator. To understand which areas and regions in the world that will suffer a larger degree of collapse than others, we need to look at their energy dynamics. Full Story
The Central Bank of Russia has been increasing its gold holdings every month since March 2015 and now has the fifth largest gold reserves in the world. The eastern European nation also sits at number three on the list of top gold producing nations. Why might Russia be buying and digging up so much gold? Joanna Sawicka, emerging Europe research analyst, explains possible reasons behind this buying pattern in the video below! Full Story
In articles starting in April I discussed the bullish impulse we had seen off the April lows for nearly every coin I track. And, I discussed how the lows on May 28 were testing levels that, if broken, threatened the continuation of that impulse. Full Story
The content on this site is protected
by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of GoldSeek.com
and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any
information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on GoldSeek.com.
This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other
features found on the site. Please contact
us for any further information.
Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer
The views contained here may not represent the views of GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC, its affiliates or advertisers. GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy
or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics,
analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction
and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained
on or within this website, without the express written consent of GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC,
is strictly prohibited. In no event shall GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC or its affiliates be
liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon
the information provided herein.
