Gold has been fairly volatile so far this year, seeing plenty of big daily surges and selloffs. But with all these largely netting out to the sideways grind of recent months, gold’s price action has been frustrating for bullish and bearish traders alike. Gaming gold in these strange central-bank-distorted times requires closely watching its primary driver, the collective bets of American futures speculators. They portend a rally. Full Story
So there you have it, June could be quite the month as many events all converge over the 30 day timeframe, and none of them good! I have warned and warned, you must have exactly the positions you want should the markets close and not offer you the chance to alter. Please, imagine a world where things actually make sense and logic counts for something when it comes to valuing assets. Let's call it "Mother Nature world" where values make some sense and are actually related to each other and to reality. How would your portfolio or financial position look like if we woke up one fine Monday morning in June to a brand new world? Full Story
By: Arkadiusz Sieron, Sunshine Profits - 22 May, 2015
Based on the literature, we have often claimed that gold is the best asset class during slowdowns. However, it is worth digging rather more deeply into this complex issue, also examining gold’s performance during recessions. The yellow metal behaves relatively well as an investment during economic contractions, but consumer demand may drop during weak GDP growth, when real incomes fall or rise very sluggishly. Full Story
Of course, the common conceptualization of hyperinflation it is a pretty unacceptable exercise for most. We can only tolerate it from only safe distances. Indeed, everyone’s favorite image of what the aftermath will look like was just upgraded in the new Mad Max movie. Full Story
Statistics have become very misleading: in particular we are being badly misled into believing that the US is teetering on the edge of price deflation, because the US official rate of inflation is barely positive, a level that US bonds and therefore all other financial markets have priced in without accepting it is actually significantly higher. Full Story
By: Thibaut Lepouttre and The Gold Report - 21 May, 2015
Thibaut Lepouttre, editor of Belgium-based Caesars Report, says the gold price is range bound and if you want to be in gold equities you have to find "lean and mean" precious metals producers that are generating cash flow or have a clear path to cash flow at $1,200 per ounce gold. In this interview with The Gold Report, Lepouttre tells investors to look for projects with economic studies demonstrating high internal rates of return, as those projects are more likely to attract financing and command a market premium. Full Story
In summary, although we wouldn't dispute that markets will inevitably take their own distinct paths through history, current market conditions display the potential for a more long-term downtrend in the SPX:Oil ratio, as found with greater similarities to the move in yields, the respective equity and commodity market cycles and policy posture by the Fed in 1999. Full Story
The next step in the game will be CAPITAL CONTROLS. When the European government realizes that they cannot eliminate cash without the rest of the entire world doing so simultaneously, money will move out even faster from Europe, driving the dollar to excessive highs. They will most likely follow the same script as they did in Cyprus, imposing currency controls to prevent money from fleeing. Full Story
By: Peter Spina, GoldSeek.com and SilverSeek.com - 21 May, 2015
Despite weak economic data, new record highs continue to be set on Wall Street as the stock market bull is fueled by record stock buybacks now amounting to $337 Billion, 34% increase over last year. It has been years since there has been a true market correction and such resilience builds confidence into investors’ mindsets creating a surreal complacency. Full Story
So, in the end, the key here is whether or not the average Indian citizen is gullible enough to entrust their gold to this new, government-backed ponzi scheme. When I asked Andrew Maguire about this last week, he laughed at the notion, saying something to the effect that "no way the Indian people are stupid enough to fall for that". I'm not so sure. As P.T. Barnum-Gupta-Singh once said: "There's a sucker born every minute, even in India". Sadly, I'm sure he's right. With Indian gold import demand on pace to reach about 800 metric tonnes in 2015, shaking loose just 4% of India's domestic "supply" would negate the need for further imports. Full Story
The first chart I would like to show you tonight is the long term monthly chart for the US Dollar I showed you a week or two ago. It was coming into contact with the top rail of a massive 30 year falling wedge at 93.50. I also drew in a neckline extension rail taken from the H&S top that formed back in 2000 which came in at 92. I put the little brown box to show you where I was hoping to find support. So far the top rail is doing its thing by reversing its role to what had been resistance to now support once it was broken to the upside. This is a critical test taking place right here which so far the US dollar bulls are winning. Full Story
As we are approaching the moment the PBOC unveils they have more physical gold in reserve than what has been disclosed since 2009, 1054 tonnes, we will again analyze everything there is to find about PBOC gold purchases. Grasping the exact size of their current official gold reserves is unfortunately impossible, but if we understand why, “not-knowing” actually forms a piece of the puzzle. Full Story
Currency War Collateral Damage: China Stops Growing, Starts Easing US Nearing a Recession, Dollar Falling Hard Canaries In The Coal Mine, Part 1: Tech High-Flyers Fall To Earth The End is Near, Part 3: Corporations are the Ultimate Dumb Money The End Is Near, Part 4: Peak Trophy Asset Inflation Full Story
The giant gold ETF, GLD, reported yet another drawdown in its holdings this afternoon. This time around it was a 3 tons reduction bringing the total holdings to 715.26 tons. That is now up a mere 6.24 tons since the start of the year levels, a far cry from its peak in February of a 64 ton increase on the year. Full Story
“The Deep Dark” is the definitive (and dramatic without being melodramatic) account of the May 2, 1972 Sunshine Mine Disaster here in the silver fields of northern Idaho. Ninety-one men died on the day shift after fire broke out deep underground, overcome by deadly gases. Eighty-six miners escaped that day, and another two were found alive beneath a fresh-air shaft a week later. Full Story
We know that war has been a nearly constant distraction since 9-11 and that a crisis is often used as a justification for economic insanity, such as borrowing more to address an excessive debt problem. It seems likely that weakening economies, deflationary forces, excessive debt, massive unemployment, riots, economic anxiety, consumer price inflation, and so much more, will require more distractions. We should “rig for stormy weather” and expect another crisis and more wars. Full Story
First and foremost I congratulate the Government for coming out with this scheme. I would even go further and suggest that the Government goes and legalises payment of taxes in Gold and Silver. The reduction in the amount of gold deposit is a master stroke, in the sense, that now the general public which holds even some gold will be able to capitalise it and bring it into the banking system. This will also curb the menace of the shadow economy to some extent, because, most small gold buyers pay cash to buy their gold. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 20 May, 2015
I'm sure that for the people at the Federal Reserve and Treasury Department it's also their conception of patriotism, though I think they confuse it with imperialism. If we as Americans are true to our national principles, those principles will be enough for us to lead the world and we won't need currency market rigging, which corrupts us as badly as it oppresses others. Full Story
While my title was written a bit tongue-in-cheek, it is not terribly far from the truth. As we all know by now, the market triggered the bullish pattern we have been following for weeks. And, for those that remember the “evil plan” I outlined since we came into 2015, the market is following through quite beautifully. Full Story
For a number of years the market presence of commercial traders has dictated the direction in the price of gold and silver. With deep pockets and by trading contracts in the futures market without having to back up their contracts with metal, commercial traders acting in concert, can raise the price after a pullback, and cap a rally when their computer trading programs signal that price is ripe for a quick drop. Full Story
We’re only halfway through the month, but so far the old trading adage “Sell in May and go away” seems a little premature. Last Thursday, the S&P 500 Index closed at new consecutive record highs, topping the previous record set on April 24 and further extending the 6-year bull run. The surge came on the heels of weaker economic data last week, leading investors to believe that the Federal Reserve will refrain from raising interest rates this summer, if not this year. Full Story
The GLD is once again being drained of "inventory" during a period of rising prices. Is this a sign of tight, global supply? Unfortunately, we can only speculate. As we've diligently established over the past eight months, the paper price of gold is now largely controlled by daily changes to the dollar-yen. HFT trading algorithms now control nearly every "market" and, within paper gold, it appears that most HFTs are set to sell gold as the yen declines versus the dollar and buy gold as the yen appreciates. Full Story
By: Jeff Clark, Senior Precious Metals Analyst - 19 May, 2015
My point is that any reasonable big picture view of the political, financial, and economic trends show that virtually all of those changes will be very positive for gold—and aren’t that far off. It will be a new day for the gold market, one full of rising prices and profitable investment statements. Full Story
In the Western gold community, there seems to be a fairly widely held view that gold prices can’t rise much higher, unless confidence in central banking is lost. I beg to differ. Investors who bet against central banks generally don’t fare very well. The 2008 crisis saw the Fed use some of its tools, but not all of them. The Fed’s most powerful tools, gold revaluation and money printing, were never employed in that crisis. Full Story
A few months back I theorized the rest of the world led by a Chinese/Russian alliance might let loose with a "truth bomb" or a series of them. It is clear the U.S. has been on a pathway in the desire to start a war. We have pressed in Syria and the Ukraine but so far to no avail. From the standpoint of the U.S., it is my opinion that a war is "necessary" to point at and blame for the financial collapse surely coming because in no way can "policy" be blamed. Full Story
In capitalist economies, capital, i.e. ‘money’, is created by central banks in the form of credit; and the cost of that credit—central bank interest rates—determines the rate of economic growth. In the end game, however, this is not so. In the end game, credit’s expansive and inflationary incentives are offset by the collapse of massive speculative bubbles resulting in dangerously low levels of economic activity and a commensurate plunge in the velocity of money. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 19 May, 2015
A popular view is that gold has no monetary role to play in a modern, technologically-advanced economy. This view is wrong in many ways, including that, thanks to technological advances, gold is now better suited to being money than it has ever been. This is because technology has eliminated the inconveniences that would otherwise limit gold’s usefulness as money, with BitGold being the latest evidence. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 19 May, 2015
Many of the top precious metal analysts state that gold is the premium asset and insurance hedge during a financial collapse. We hear this time and time again. However, if we look at the data during the near collapse of the U.S. Banking and financial system in 2008, gold wasn’t the most sought after precious metal. Full Story
Now that Gold has pushed to a three month high, it’s clear that my bullish read of the Gold tape is at least partially correct. In the face of recent negative price action, I had managed to remain cautiously bullish given Gold’s position in a new Investor Cycle – it was far too early for Gold to be rolling over, even if it remained locked in an extreme bear market. But now, after this week’s action, Gold is in a much better position, and with the possibility of upside ahead. Full Story
Gold prices began the week at their best for three months and immediately bounced higher again to $1,233 an ounce with silver outperforming with higher percentage gains at $17.74. Meantime, the latest World Gold Council data revealed that the total demand for gold bars and coins was up by 20 per cent in Germany in the first quarter in a rush to get out of the then slumping euro. Full Story
I recently published an article projecting possible prices for gold in the year 2020 based on the S&P 500 Index and the ever increasing population adjusted US national debt. I assumed three scenarios and three different gold projections. Time will tell regarding gold prices, but what is nearly certain is that national debt will exponentially increase. Further, over 30 years, the sum of the S&P and gold have increased similarly to the population adjusted national debt. Full Story
Capitalizing on the panicked sell-off in junior oil and gas stocks may prove to be a smart move now as oil prices have recovered some 50% since crashing to $42/barrel WTIC in March, whereas many juniors still trade at relatively low levels. Full Story
If money was not used as a medium of exchange, goods and services would have to be exchanged through a barter system. Of course, the inefficiencies of that would mean that one must want exactly what the other has to offer, when and where it is offered, so that the exchange can occur. Money, as a medium of exchange, would fill that gap – hence medium – so that it can be used to facilitate a sale, purchase or trade between parties. Full Story
Gold traders remained bullish for a third week on speculation that a weaker dollar will increase demand. Supportive of this survey, Shanghai Gold Exchange withdrawals were 857.7 metric tons as of May 8. Gold imports by India exceeded 100 metric tons for a second month in April as easing of state curbs on bullion imports boosted demand. German investors increased their buying of gold coins and bars by 20 percent during the first quarter, the highest rate in a year, as a hedge against European Central Bank (ECB) policy and the threat of a Greek default. Lastly, by weight, April saw the strongest net demand for gold according to BullionVault since August 2013. Full Story
Our monetary system is failing, but explaining that isn’t easy. The most popular argument is that the dollar has falling purchasing power and rising inflation. The problem with this argument is that consumer prices aren’t skyrocketing now. So, of course, people remain skeptical. Meanwhile, yields across all markets are falling worldwide. This causes the income generated from assets to fall. I wrote about this serious problem last time, introducing the concept of yield purchasing power—which is how much you can buy with the interest on your savings. Full Story
Andrew Maguire, of Andrew Maguire Gold Trading makes his début appearance. The 40 year gold market veteran and whistleblower, strengthens Ted Butler's silver market manipulation case. Each ounce of exchange metal is leveraged 100 to 1. Yet leverage of only 10 to 1 was required to ignite the Great Crash of 1929. Our guest notes that the trading desks of the 6 key bullion banks and the BIS are in collusion, keenly aware of major turning points and culpable for sharing confidential information with associates. Full Story
Negative interest rates will only work if the people cannot remove their funds in the form of cash. Once cash is removed from the system then “money” is captured within the banking system and they can charge whatever negative interest rates, service charges and fees that they desire. The only thing that will hold them back at all is competition within the banking community and that is disappearing fast with all the mergers and mega-banks. Full Story
One of the most important things that anyone who ventures into the arena of trading will need to learn, is how to deal with trades that go sour. You can find lots of books out there on technical analysis in this day of age. You will also discover no shortage of self-proclaimed “experts” with infallible price predictions which are yours for the taking provided you first plop down some exorbitant sum of money for the privilege of then watching those prophecies fail to come to pass. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 17 May, 2015
When the gold price is suppressed by central banks, corporations -- which government easily can regulate and through which government enforces environmental safeguards and remediation -- won't mine as much of the metal and won't employ as many people. For amid price suppression, the metal can't be mined legally and responsibly; its price won't support responsible practices. Full Story
The consensus I’m hearing and reading from the 500+ attendees at the recent Strategic Investment Conference is that this was the best ever. It was certainly intense, with more divergent views presented this year than at previous conferences. Plus, the range of topics was rather dramatic. This year I was able to listen to all but one of the presentations, and I want to share with you my notes and takeaway thoughts. (In addition to my own notes as a source for this letter, my associate Pat Watson sent me his notes, as well as links to a summary by attendees Chris Bailey and my good friend Steve Blumenthal. I borrow freely.) Full Story
Many commentators have noted that mainstream economists are calling to do away with cash entirely. It would be easy to scoff at these proposals as completely insane if the Fed hadn’t published a paper back in 1999 suggesting the implementation of a “carry tax” or taxing actual physical cash using an expiration date if depositors aren’t willing to spend the money. Full Story
Welcome back to my weekly post on the Chinese gold market, usually centered around data regarding Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) withdrawals from the vaults. I’ve been away for a short while because I had some health issues – I’ll be fine, I just need a little time. The good news is I slowly started working a few days ago! Let’s see what I didn’t cover in recent weeks in terms of SGE withdrawals, trading volume and Chinese gold imports. I’ll try to catch up in a few post that cover important developments. Full Story
The US National Archives and Records Administration (NARA) has just released a new batch of diplomatic cables from the year 1978, which can be searched and browsed via the Access to Archival Databases (AAD) website at http://aad.archives.gov/aad/. These batches of cables are variously known as “State Department Cables“, “Diplomatic Records” or “Central Foreign Policy Files“, and are now on-line (in electronic format) for the years 1973 -1978 inclusive. Full Story
Stocks saw great action this past week, and after weeks of chopping around seem to be moving out of the nice patterns which have taken that long to form. Half the battle is waiting for the right setups on the chart and those patterns take time to form. Leading stocks are now breaking out and leading the indexes who are trying to breakout in the case of the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 while the Russell is lagging a bit still. Full Story
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