Volatility continues to expand at a blistering pace, wonderful isn’t it? Volatility is opportunity for the prepared investor. This week’s missive will be a little shorter than most as I have had a very bad flu. A number of markets are tipping their hands signaling another round of re-pricing in many markets, further signaling abundant opportunities DEAD ahead. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 22 February, 2008
Finance leaders from the Group of Seven, industrialized nations discussed collective action “to calm markets, if price moves become irrational.” Finance ministers and central bankers from the G7 –the United States, Canada, Japan, Britain, France, Germany, and Italy—said that financial market turmoil was serious and persisting. They also said more work was needed to restore markets to good working order and safeguard global growth. The European Central Bank believes that turbulence on financial markets could continue for months. Full Story
By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 22 February, 2008
-Manufacturing data adds to a growing list of worries…gold is hovering close to $1,000… -There are many things cheap labor can't produce…inflation on one hand, deflation on the other - what's a poor Fed to do? -The next crisis will be over food…gold may not be perfect - but it's a whole lot better than the alternative…and more thoughts, insights, and ramblings to take you into the weekend! Full Story
If Bernanke was expecting a 13% rise on Wall Street, he's got a 45% rise in gold instead – plus a real disaster in US Treasury bond yields... Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital, Inc. - 22 February, 2008
The manner in which this massive bundle of funds will be disposed will have a gargantuan impact on the trajectory of the world economy. Unfortunately for America, the decisions are out of our hands, but the ramifications will largely be ours to bear. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence LLC - 22 February, 2008
Despite very difficult prevailing stock-market conditions, the HUI unhedged gold-stock index has soared 55% since mid-August! You’d think gold-stock traders would be thrilled with such awesome gains. Instead they are very disappointed, because gold itself is up 45% over this same period of time and the HUI hasn’t adequately leveraged its gains. Full Story
The press is not saying, "This is the first major banking domino to fall. There will be more." The event is being treated as if it were an anomaly. It isn't. The mainstream media will not sound an alarm. That is why people who do not trust the mainstream media read obscure newsletters and visit obscure web sites. Full Story
As we usher in the last week of February, 2008 we are witnessing a truly extraordinary time in many Markets. Record highs and major inflection points occur in several markets against a backdrop of financial institution meltdowns, and significant price inflation in the recession-afflicted U.S. economy. Full Story
By: David Coffin and Eric Coffin - 22 February, 2008
By putting US $534 billion of sub-prime mortgages and CDO on either downgrade or review, S&P is finally getting to the magnitude of the bad debt issue in the US. Had they let auditors do their year end jobs without this, the music would be much louder down the road. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The MOGAMBO GURU - 22 February, 2008
Then I recall that the average retirement plan in America, like a 401(k), has somewhere between $25,000 and $60,000 in it, and I wonder how long that would last if one lousy chicken cost $15 million. Hahahaha! Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 22 February, 2008
Is stagflation taking hold? In our dreams, maybe, since its impact would be relatively benign in comparison to the economically lethal debt deflation now spreading from financial assets and real estate into the consumer economy. Full Story
Like it or not, our economy continues to slow down while inflation, in practically every tracked category is on the rise. The Fed notes released yesterday point out that the Fed is very aware of what is going on and in reading their notes, I think it clear that they are no longer, “behind the curve”. Full Story
By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 21 February, 2008
-Useful suggestions from your team at The DR - hey, stranger things have happened… -A booming Latin America…a look at a true globalized, capitalist economy… -A new tax in London…buy an apartment in Dubai - and get a Mini Cooper…and more! Full Story
In this first article of a series, we will discuss why the answers to the inflation versus deflation debate won’t be found in impersonal mathematical equations – but the quite personal factors of human incentives and motivations. We will show how inflation always trumps deflation with sufficient government willpower – there is simply no contest. Full Story
By: Jason Hommel, Silver Stock Report - 21 February, 2008
This afternoon, gold moved up $30/oz. to a new high of $947/oz., silver moved up $.75/oz. to hit a new high of $17.96/oz. Palladium moved up to a new high of $501/oz., which seems to be catching up to platinum at $2143/oz, which hit its new high yesterday. This is a fantastic breakout of all 4 precious metals! Full Story
Like a whirlwind, the crisis triggered by the housing crisis and mortgage debacle has extended to almost every phase of the landscape in US economic and financial life. And the rookies running the US Federal Reserve initially said the problem would be contained. My claim made in late June 2007 (see article, click here) was that it involved absolute contagion to the system, which is what we see vividly now. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The MOGAMBO GURU - 21 February, 2008
Of course, now that actual reserves in the banks are (unbelievably) no longer required, financial corruption in the banks has now reached its zenith, as the banks are now totally free to create as much money as Ben Bernanke will let them… Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 21 February, 2008
Whenever bullion swoons $20 or more, as it did yesterday for the umpteenth time, we need to remind ourselves that it’s only a game, one who’s sole purpose is to keep gold bulls from making easy money on the most one-sided bet since Secratariat all but lapped the field in the ’73 Derby. Who on earth could possibly think gold is a sale here? Full Story
By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 20 February, 2008
-Oil closes over $100 for the first time ever…stocks are caught in the middle of the 'flations - with nowhere to go… -The world is being smothered in paper…what do you get to protect yourself from paper? Gold… -The people who hustle granite countertops are finally getting a rest…trying to understand the distorted derivatives market…and more! Full Story
Expect ever-more government meddling in short, begged for by the Western world's finance industry and willingly supplied by policy-makers desperate to appear decisive. And for as long as this circus keeps rolling on, you might want to keep Buying Gold as defense. Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 20 February, 2008
There is now a total disconnect between Wall Street and reality as the Fed continues to push on a string while yield ratios between long term and short term treasuries go parabolic and monetization of debt and endless bailouts create the same geometric pattern for charts on actual inflation as opposed to the fairytales about inflation that we get from the Bureau of Lying Statistics. Full Story
I have a suspicion that the recent insane market volatility would have caused some sleepless nights throughout the investment world. There can be no doubt that the current year did not commence well with widespread declines in the capital markets, resulting in the selling nadir which forced the Federal Reserve to cut rates aggressively. Full Story
By: Jordan Roy-Byrne/Trendsman - 20 February, 2008
Only a few stocks were able to avoid more than a 50% decline. However, over the past few weeks selling pressure has finally abated and given way to classic bottoming patterns in many of the uranium stocks. Last week’s action was especially encouraging as many stocks rebounded on rising volume from successfully tested bottom points. Full Story
By: Greg Silberman CA(SA), CFA - 20 February, 2008
Countless arguments have been put forward to explain the disconnect between commodity prices and commodity stocks. Regardless of the reasons, it is now clear that investors need to own a mixture of both. Underlying Commodities through exchange traded funds and commodity stocks. Full Story
As long as gold remains in “impulsive” condition, surprises will most likely be to the upside, so it is best to be long, or in cash – but not short. In the meantime, consolidation can be a good thing – it allows us an opportunity to redeploy funds at a lower cost basis and builds the energy required to sustain the next move up. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The MOGAMBO GURU - 20 February, 2008
Mr. Sprott says that such a ridiculous scheme, "will inevitably fail due to an acute shortage of physical gold stemming from exploding investment demand, shrinking mine supply and diminishing western central-bank reserves", and that, "As a result, somebody is going to take a terrible hosing on the short side of the market. The antidote to the upcoming financial debacle is to own as much physical gold as you can procure." Full Story
By: David N. Vaughn, Gold Letter, Inc. - 20 February, 2008
However, it’s also possible this headline-grabbing rally is the blow-off that will cap oil’s price for a long time to come. Fortunately, we won’t have to speculate on whether an important top is at hand, since the power and resiliency of the rally will be manifest on the intraday charts. Specifically, if significantly higher prices are coming, we should see bullish Hidden Pivot patterns reach or exceed their rally targets on the hourly chart while corrective patterns fail to do the same. Full Story
By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 19 February, 2008
-China's low-cost exports are now not-so low…the commodity index is at record highs… -Why can't anyone see trouble on the way?…the United States past its peak… -More and more, financial news is becoming a matter for the cops…prices are always subject to influence…and more! Full Story
By: Theodore Butler & Israel Friedman - 19 February, 2008
The extreme market structure in COMEX silver (and gold) continues to get more extreme. In other words, the concentrated net short position held by the largest four and eight traders in COMEX silver continues to grow. Full Story
By: Eric Hommelberg, The Gold Drivers Report - 19 February, 2008
In my piece Juniors - Buy of a Lifetime part I I noted the extreme undervaluation of the junior sector against gold and concluded that a buy opportunity of a lifetime could be staring right here into our eyes. Now three weeks later nothing has changed my view. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 19 February, 2008
There has been a lot of talk of late of potential sales of I.M.F. gold. The more we look at the subject, contrary to our previous view, the more likely it seems possible [not yet probable], but if it does happen, it will not happen again thereafter for solid reasons. If the sales do take place they will happen from September 2008 onwards. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 19 February, 2008
Silver prices are at their peak and look as though they are going to go higher, once this period of consolidation is out of the way. Silver prices have risen steadily over the years alongside gold despite there being both a surplus and government selling of stockpiles. Full Story
Uninformed odds players are calling a bottom on the stock market citing extreme technical and sentiment related readings. It’s too bad they are not history students as well, but that was the boring and unnecessary elective in school most declined to take seriously. These dip buyers are about to learn a very expensive lesson in my opinion, as in terms of market internals and sentiment, we are currently poised for a crash of potentially monumental proportions. Full Story
The measure by the government not only demonstrates that markets are, in fact, not free in the developed world, are closely intertwined with government and industry, and that the best way to ensure your isolation from and government protection against bankruptcy is to lose billions as opposed to millions. Full Story
By: Steven Saville, Speculative Investor - 19 February, 2008
Since late 2003 the gold sector of the stock market has been in consolidation relative to gold bullion, but the rapid widening of the US yield-spread over the past 6 months -- as indicated on our chart by the sharp rise in the TYX/FVX ratio -- suggests that this lengthy consolidation will soon come to an end. Full Story
By: Boris Sobolev, Resource Stock Guide - 19 February, 2008
Risk aversion is now the prevailing sentiment for investors in the stock and credit markets. Credit spreads are growing across the board. As just one of many examples, the chart below shows a spike in the ratio between the US treasuries and investment grade corporate bonds to levels not seen since 2002. Full Story
The reason why there will be further bank failures is because the global credit crisis is deepening as the US monoline debt default insurers face failure and thus magnify the original estimates of total bank losses of $140 billion to potentially ten fold! Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The MOGAMBO GURU - 19 February, 2008
They only want to talk about how they found out that the 0.5% deduction in their paychecks for HMRF is actually the Happy Mogambo Retirement Fund (HMRF), which means that I am taking money out of their paychecks for my own use. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 19 February, 2008
U.S. markets were closed Monday, but global action in some of the E-Mini futures contracts suggests that a significant number of traders may have spent the holiday weekend sniffing glue. How else to explain the 17-point rally that seized the E-Mini S&P (see chart at bottom) in off-hours trading Sunday night and early Monday morning? Full Story
By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 18 February, 2008
-The mysterious trickery of Mr. Market…magical protection from individual stupidity… -Different, but equally damaging warfare…Obama is accused of plagiarism… -Choose your poison wisely…a test to contradict the contrarian…and more! Full Story
By: Bill Murphy, Le Metropole Cafe, Inc. - 18 February, 2008
The commodity markets remained on fire in overseas trading with copper rallying 9 cents in London to the $3.59+ per pound mark. Crude oil was up 56 cents to $96.06 per barrel. Platinum continued to fly, gaining another $55 to $2106. Palladium was up $14 to $459. Full Story
1st Hour: Headline news & market forecast. Spotlight Picks with big dividends. The International Forecaster and Chris Waltzek answer listener questions. 2nd Hour: Congressman Ron Paul Full Story
Day after day, there is bad news from the banking sector in Europe and America. There is bad news from the housing markets all over the world. There is bad news from the Institute for Supply Management, which reports on the state of suppliers. The service sector in January fell to 41.9%, with 50% as the borderline between contraction and expansion. In December, it was 54.4%. This is a very sharp decline. Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 18 February, 2008
The Illuminati have a huge problem. They have buried it and no one in the media is talking about it, at least not in the correct order of magnitude. They are quaking with fear as they consider the possibility of this problem being unleashed. The problem lies in the Land of the Rising Sun, or should we call it the Land of the Sinking CDO. Full Story
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors - 18 February, 2008
Today we look at the rather disturbing developments in the municipal bond market, Warren Buffett's offer to "rescue" the tax-exempt insurers, and ponder what the resolution will be. We also look at corporate earnings, and note how they have been downgraded significantly over the last year. There is (or will be) a connection between stock market prices, valuation, the current credit crisis, and the economy. There is a lot of ground to cover. Full Story
One of the best practitioners of technical analysis of the last 30-40 years, and one of my personal favorites, was Ralph Bloch. Bloch was for many years the chief market technician with Raymond James and was renown for his down-to-earth manner and “say it like it is” approach to the stock market. Full Story
Is gold taking a rest and moving sideways or is it preparing for a significant move lower, or higher. Where’s that coin? Time for the flipping. It will probably be as accurate as anyone. Full Story
Everyone knows that gold has been going up strongly and that stocks have been going down. Let’s take a look at a comparison of the performance of gold to the Dow. Full Story
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor - 18 February, 2008
While negativity continues to rise; the chaps who short odd lot of shares are not shorting the markets as aggressively as we would like to them too. Usually when they capitulate and start too aggressively short a intermediate to long term tradable bottoms is close at hand. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The MOGAMBO GURU - 18 February, 2008
It is then that the movie turns into a farce, as Ms. Pelosi is crying out, 'Quick! Give him some more money!' Hahahaha! Nice work, Ms. Pelosi! Groucho Marx would have been proud of us both! Full Story
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