The theme running through both of the above stories is repetition: The same let-it-all-hang-out debt-driven enthusiasm that prevailed at the end of the previous bubble has taken hold at the end of this one. What happens next? If history is still a useful guide, growth will spike (since spending borrowed money counts as “growth” in the Keynesian economics practiced by most policy makers), leading to higher interest rates which raise the interest costs of over-indebted governments, businesses and individuals, which at last pops the bubble and sends us back to 2008. Full Story
By: Jordan Roy-Byrne CMT, MFTA - 22 December, 2017
Back in early 2016 as precious metals rebounded, our work showed that gold stocks were arguably the cheapest they had ever been. They had the worst 5-year and 10-year rolling performance ever, they were trading at potentially 40-year lows on a price to cash flow basis, they were the cheapest ever relative to the stock market and Gold and most notably, the Barron’s Gold Mining Index was trading at the same level as 42 years ago! The gold stocks enjoyed a massive recovery in 2016 but it was short lived as the sector corrected and then consolidated (far from the highs) for over a year. Full Story
To find the market’s biggest weakness, a good place to look is at the most crowded movie theater with the smallest exit. European bonds. You’ve probably seen the charts of European high yield floating around, so I won’t reproduce it here. Yields in the low 2s for BB credits. There was also a European corporate issuer that managed to issue BBB bonds at negative yields a few weeks ago. I think that might have been the top. Full Story
The gold miners’ stocks largely ground sideways in 2017, lagging gold’s solid rally. Being trapped in this vexing consolidation has decimated sentiment, leaving a bearish wasteland bereft of hope. But contrary to perceptions, this deeply-out-of-favor sector is actually a coiled spring today. Gold stocks are ready to surge dramatically higher as psychology inevitably shifts, pointing to much higher prices coming in 2018. Full Story
The ever-increasing digitalization of our world has meant advances in technology that would have been unimaginable 30 years ago when the Internet first entered the popular lexicon. Created by the U.S. Government in the 1960s to build robust communications via computer networks, “Internet” as it was then called had no means of electronic mail, telephony or file sharing, which are the building blocks of today's world-wide web. Full Story
We approach 2018 having seen the seeds planted in recent years for a monetary revolution. They include the massive world-wide expansion of credit and debt since the last credit crisis, and the advent of potentially disruptive cryptocurrencies. Geopolitical shifts of tectonic scale have occurred, hardly noticed by the ordinary person. That was until now. We are now on board a train which is gathering speed towards its buffers: the end of dollar hegemony and its potential collapse. Full Story
Richard Daughty, "the angriest guy in economics,” writer/publisher of The Mogambo Guru economic newsletter says the stock / bond markets are approaching bubble territory. The Mogambo Guru notes that central banks continue to prop up the global housing, stock and bond markets awash in a sea of interest rate sensitive derivatives. The US held a 3-10 billion ounce silver stockpile as a military strategic reserve - all of the silver was used / sold, primarily on the enormous uranium refining cyclotrons at Los Alamos. Full Story
Featured is $BPGDM. This index rises or falls according to the bullish percentage among the stocks that make up the index. At the top we have inserted GDX, the miners ETF. In the past, whenever $BPGDM rose up from below 25 it gave a buy signal for mining stocks. Notice how the blue arrows point to excellent timing. The supporting indicators at the bottom (CCI and Slow Sto) have just turned positive, to provide confirmation. Full Story
The metals have been exhibiting as an actor in a soap opera would. They have taken us to the edge of our emotions on each and every swing, as they take us to the edge of each of our support and resistance regions, and then turn. But, I think many of you have lost the focus of the forest due to your concentration on the leaves. So, this week, I am going to open with our discussion of the leaves, and then focus on the forest. It’s time to get serious about this complex. Full Story
Here’s a thought that I fully acknowledge didn’t originate with me, but from a close associate, even though it incorporates many of my findings. If it does come to fruition, I will gladly reveal my associate’s identity to give him his proper due; but in case it doesn’t, I’ll spare him any embarrassment for an incorrect premise. As I think you’ll see, I can’t deny that my friend’s premise seems to tie up all the loose ends about the silver manipulation. Full Story
Filled with holiday cheer, Bob Hoye of Institutional Advisors rejoins the show with comments on the global financial bubble. The Dow could be approaching an ultimate peak - current valuations are stretched beyond those of the last equities market top of 2000. Bitcoin recently eclipsed the total value of Wal-mart, which should make for enlightening discussion around the holiday dinner table. A big spike in popularity is anticipated. Full Story
Various techniques including price trend line breaks and the 10 period moving average are confirming that gold has begun a new intermediate cycle. Full Story
Tonight I would like to update some charts for the commodities complex as we are starting to see some action in this sector. Back in the summer months when we first started to get long some of the different commodities sectors, we got many breakouts from some very nice HS bases. After the initial move up came the first consolidation phase that has been going on for nearly four months or so. We are now starting to see some of these consolidation patterns breaking out which should lead to the next impulse move higher in most cases. Full Story
In its November report, mortgage security firm Freddie Mac called 2017 the “best year in a decade” for the housing market by a variety of measures. These include low inflation, strong job growth and historically-low mortgage rates. This assessment is very encouraging, not just for homebuyers and builders and the U.S. economy in general, but also for commodities, resources and raw materials as we head into 2018. Full Story
Dorothy’s cell phone alerted her that a Category 5 hurricane approached her home in Florida. Officials on CNN stated, “We believe the Russians created the hurricane.” She didn’t care if the Russians were responsible. Her job had been outsourced to China, and the bank repossessed her home and car. She barely survived on Social Security in a tiny mobile home that the powerful hurricane would surely destroy. Full Story
How high can gold rally? To $1,270 - $1,290. That’s what we wrote on December 14. Stockcharts’ intraday high for yesterday’s session is $1,271.40, which means that our target area has already been reached. However, gold will remain in the target area even if the rally continues for another $20 or so. Which scenario is likely to play out and when is it likely to play out? Full Story
Treasurys have taking a shellacking on expectations that the GOP’s tax package will cause the economy to boom and inflation to leap. I have serious doubts about this but am keeping an open mind. Regardless, the chart shown makes a strong case that rates on the 10-Year Note are headed up to at least 2.57%, or possible even 3.11%, in 2018. That would be the sharpest increase we’ve seen since the bull market in stocks began in 2009. Full Story
A Cash Box is a publically listed but inactive company, used for one purpose—to hold cash balances and/or securities of other public or private businesses. Because Cash Box companies are inert, they are often forgotten over time and not promoted to the public. In weak resource markets, their share prices’ (ie. market capitalizations) tend to drift lower—sometimes to the extent that the business ends up being priced at substantially less than the value of the liquid assets the business owns (ie. cash, stock, receivables). Full Story
We're in the midst of a massive, transformational change that will redefine where we are, what we think is true, and where we believe the future is headed. With sensory input from across the political and economic spectrum of the Internet bombarding us 24/7, it's understandably difficult to follow through on a decision once made, even if you've researched carefully and thought things through beforehand. Full Story
In short, the cryptomania has quickly turned into one of the most fascinating episodes of speculation in history. The onlooker cannot help but be entertained as exchanges, companies, institutions, governments, regulators, hackers, and speculators align themselves either for or against the growing pile of crypto being mined into the consciousness of investors across the world. Full Story
As you can see, the yield on the 10-Year Treasury is breaking out to the upside, having broken above its 20-year trendline. Why does this matter? Because this chart is telling us, in no uncertain terms, that inflation is coming. You see, bond yields track inflation (as well as economic growth). So as inflation rises, bond yields will also rise. Full Story
The invention of the “Bitcoin” has captured the imagination of the world. This has happened because the world today enjoys a system of instantaneous world-wide communication, accessible to almost anyone. Never before has there been a financial speculation of this magnitude, because never before has the world has such a wide and instantaneous access to information. Full Story
We hold a position consisting of two round lots with a cost basis that has been reduced by profit-taking to 14022. Entry came on December 8 via an explicit recommendation to get long at 16042. The paper-trade was offered mainly to demonstrate the ease and effectiveness of a tactic known by Rick’s Picks subscribers as a ‘mechanical’ entry. This set-up is designed to hold risk and reward constant at 1:3 from entry to exit. My current price target is 22,101, a ‘Hidden Pivot’ resistance that is also my minimum upside projection for $BRTI, a non-trading CME symbol that aggregates the order books of some the most popular bitcoin exchanges. I am now recommending that traders exit a third round lot (from an original four) at 20616. Full Story
A break of this trend line will confirm that the Euro has entered a bull market and the dollar has entered a bear market. Gold is expected to finally be released from its year-long basing pattern. Full Story
Here is a really good question. Anyone out there lose money trading gold and silver or related mining shares in the past couple of months? I did. My friends did. The bulk of the managed money (hedge fund) players did. However, it's all "JUST FINE" because the Dow and the SPX hit all-time highs again as the last vestiges of the post-2008-GFC rescue reflation is now SURGING into paper assets. More importantly, those bullion bank millennials that were hired by their uncles and fathers and grandfathers in the banking business with EXPRESS INSTRUCTIONS to contain and control precious metals have now been given leave to TAKE PROFITS. Full Story
That line was only recently penned by the great Irish poet and philosopher, Paul Hewson. It no doubt applies here to our daily struggle against The Banks and their paper derivative pricing scheme. "It is what it is but it's not what it seems." Yep, that's a deft description on Comex Digital Gold and the pricing scheme that has prevailed now for nearly 43 years. Recall it was December 31, 1974 when Comex gold futures were introduced...not coincidentally the day before US citizens were once again allowed to legally own and possess physical gold. Full Story
Are government, central banks, and fiat money the three biggest bubbles in the history of the world? I would suggest they are. The rise of private money (bitcoin) combined with the rise of China and India as economic empires is popping these bubbles. Against bitcoin, fiat is now burning like an out of control wildfire. Within a year or two, it could begin disintegrating against gold in a somewhat similar manner. Whether that happens or not depends on whether a blockchain currency backed with gold gets widely accepted in the blockchain community. Full Story
As most readers know, Bitcoin is now a monstrous bubble that has the dubious distinction of exceeding in magnitude all previous bubbles in history, going right back to the Tulipomania in the 17th Century. Its recent ascent has been steeper than the north face of the Eiger and even the vertical face of Half Dome in Yosemite. As anyone with even basic knowledge of speculation knows, this means its days are numbered, and it won’t be long before a brutal crash occurs that wipes out latecomers and even dramatically slashes the profits of earlier arrivals on the scene. Full Story
The precious metals sector is on major buy signal. The cycle is down, as the multimonth consolidation continues. COT data is now supportive for a bottom in metal prices. We are holding gold-related ETFs for long-term gain. Full Story
Next month marks President Donald Trump’s first year in office and the beginning of his second. How have markets responded to his pro-growth policies, including pledges to lower taxes and slash regulations? The answer: Overwhelmingly. As of my writing this, the SPX 500 Index is up 19 percent year-to-date, far outperforming the historical returns we’ve seen in the first year of a president’s four-year term. Full Story
The rally stalled at 2698.00, precisely where we had anticipated, but the shallow pullback that has occurred since means the futures are going higher. Those who went short at the target as I’d suggested can manage the risk as they see fit, but I would suggest a stop-loss that would preserve at least a small profit on the trade if it’s hit. The next leg up can be expected to produce an equally precise stall at the 2710.50 target shown. Full Story
Today, mankind stands at a crossroads, and the path that humanity chooses may have a greater impact on our freedom and prosperity than any event in history. In 2008 a new technology was introduced that is so important that its destiny and the destiny of mankind are inextricably linked. It is so powerful that if captured and controlled, it could enslave all of humanity. Full Story
The best performing precious metal for the week was palladium, up 1.71 percent. Automobile replacement was up due to water damaged cars post hurricane season. Catalytic converters containing palladium will enter the recycling phase. A Bloomberg survey of gold traders shows most are bullish on the yellow metal after the Federal Reserve raised rates earlier in the week. Full Story
In recent months, the issuance of gold Exchange for Physical (EFP) contracts has surged. EFPs convert a physically deliverable Comex gold contract into an LBMA or LME contract supposedly deliverable at a later date ex London and/or Hong Kong. As an incentive for Comex contract holders to accept EFPs, a cash bonus reportedly is paid. EFPs in silver are also being issued in vast quantities, but we will focus on gold for brevity. Full Story
After three weeks of declines, gold finally moved higher last week. Was this move surprising? Not at all, if you read our analysis of the previous week’s huge decline in platinum. The sizable slide in the latter was likely to trigger at least a small rally and that’s what we saw last week. However, gold reversed quite clearly on Friday and shooting star candlesticks, as these sessions are called, are signs of a reversal. Did we see one? Full Story
The holidays always prompt us to look both forward and back. Soon you’ll start seeing 2018 forecasts. I’ll review some of them for you and give you my own in the coming weeks. But first, I want to take a look back at 2017 – and do it a little differently. In certain circles I’ve been pigeonholed as a “permabear.” That is not correct. I’m probably one of the most optimistic people you will ever meet. I’m confident in the future of humanity, but I also recognize that we must overcome many challenges to get to the future we ultimately want. Full Story
The financial system is preparing for an inflationary shock. The single best means of measuring inflation vs deflationary forces in the US financial system is the TIP to Long-Treasury (TLT) ratio. When this ratio rallies the system is predicting inflation. When it falls, the system is fearing deflation. Full Story
Last night the lovely Miss Puddy and I spent date night at the movies watching “The Man Who Invented Christmas”. I highly recommend it during this holiday season. The movie is about a young Charles Dickens who is up and coming but has just written three poorly received books. He has nonetheless moved into a large home in London, had it remodeled and has exceeded his available funds. Meanwhile his wife has hired staff and he is starting to panic about how to support his wife, three children and this new lavish lifestyle with no means of support. Full Story
The rate at which global silver production increased over the past century is quite astonishing. When Columbus arrived in America (1492), the world was only producing 7 million oz of silver a year. Today, the world’s largest primary silver mine, Fresnillo’s Sauicto Mine, produced three times that amount in just one year (22 million oz, 2016). Yes, we have come along way in 500 years. Full Story
With the Nasdaq continuing higher this past week, it has now reached our minimum target we were looking for before a pullback may be seen. But, I think the XLF may be providing us with certain clues about how 2018 may turn out. And, it may not be as rosy as many believe. Well, at least the first half of the year. Full Story
After holding onto huge, unprofitable long positions for months, gold and silver futures speculators are finally giving up and bailing out, while commercial traders (who take the opposite side of these trades, since every long requires an offsetting short) are closing out their shorts at a near-record pace. Here’s the gold data for last week, courtesy of GoldSeek. Note the massive shift by speculators from long to short. They’re not in balance yet (where longs and shorts are equal) but they’re heading that way fast. Full Story
BullionStar would like to thank all our friends and customers for supporting us during 2017, and to wish all of you a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year! To wrap up the year, we have published this light-hearted article about outlandish products made from gold. Throughout the world, many luxury good companies vie for attention in producing luxury products made from gold, plated with gold, or with substantial gold content. Full Story
After shedding two round lots (from an original four) at 18062, the tracking position initiated a week ago with an explicit instruction to get long at exactly 16042 has produced a theoretical gain of $10,292. The underlying vehicle, listed under the symbol BRTI, is a CME product that aggregates order-book bids and offers from major exchanges. If we are able to close out the remainder of the position at 22104, my original rally target, the total profit would be $16,164. Full Story
We have published many articles, arguing that bitcoin is unsound. Yet for all those arguments, there is a bright side to bitcoin. It is exciting to see that there is an audience of millions of people—mainstream people, not wild-eyed End-The-Fed gold bug preppers who keep their gold hoards with their stockpiles of ammo—who are looking for an alternative to the Fed’s failing fiat currency. Or if not looking actively, at least receptive to it. Full Story
Chris welcomes back, John Embry, Senior Strategist at Sprott Asset Management. The cryptomarket price explosion represents prima facie evidence of what the gold crowd has known for decades - gold price suppression fomented by the fiat money is doomed. Charles Hughes Smith from the Of Two Minds blog returns with commentary on the cryptocurrency bonanza. Real-world, peer-to-peer Bitcoin applications yield exceptional utility for all global inhabitants. Full Story
The end of the year is approaching. It has been a remarkable year. Three things stand out. Record after record in the U.S. stock market, Trump, and Bitcoin. What will 2018 bring? Will it be the end for them as well? As was widely expected, the Fed hiked interest rates. They also gave us a “look see” into 2018. The Fed indicated there would be three rate hikes in 2018; they expect economic growth to be faster and the labour market to stay strong; and they plan to increase the monthly balance sheet run-off to $20 billion/month starting in January as was planned. Full Story
Gold's cycle structure is examined and reveals that price has either reached a longer term bottom this past week or will do so in short order. Full Story
A fundamental requirement for lasting peace and prosperity is to reject government by coercive monopolies such as we have had for all of human history. How anyone can expect a government invested with a monopoly on violence to restrain itself from bullying people whenever it can get away with it is difficult to understand. Most people apparently refuse to explore alternatives to statism and hope their particular government doesn’t go the way of Zimbabwe or Venezuela — or Nazi Germany or Soviet Russia. Full Story
We have been expecting a seasonal rally in gold, silver and the miners off of a bottom due in either December or January, as is typical of the sector. I’ve marked up Sentimentrader‘s seasonal gold pattern to show the secondary low made (on average over 30 years) in December and the January ramp up that follows (on average). Full Story
This was truly the wild west of the Bitcoin era, when almost no one knew what Bitcoin was, nor did they even remotely care to know. It was a scoffed at idea when mentioned to others, and members on the public forums would openly talk about how often they were laughed at by family members and others within their circle for even remotely thinking about the idea. It was a "scam" through and through and was not going to last. Full Story
By: Jordan Roy-Byrne CMT, MFTA - 17 December, 2017
In recent days the gold stocks (GDX, GDXJ) traded within 1% of our downside targets of GDX $21.00 and GDXJ $29.50. Last week we wrote: “the miners are getting oversold and a bounce could begin from those levels.” GDXJ troughed first last week at $29.84 while GDX printed a low of $21.27 on Monday. From their September peaks down to those lows, GDX and GDXJ had declined nearly 17% and 21% respectively. They are oversold, nearly touched good support and now the rate hike is behind them. We expect a rally in the sector well into January. Full Story
The Morgan Report is all about YOU and how you can build and preserve Wealth for generations to come. We know it can sometimes seem a daunting task to protect your assets and preserve or grow your wealth. Over 15 years ago, a small group of us started The Morgan Report and formed an exclusive membership organization to promote personal freedom, an honest money system, free market wealth accumulation and asset protection. Full Story
Regular readers of these market reports will have not been surprised by the sell-off this week ahead of the FOMC’s quarter point rate increase. It took silver into a loss on the year so far in dollars, as our headline chart shows, and gold’s net rise to less than 8%. Full Story
Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz cited numerous worries plaguing the economy during his speech to Toronto’s financial elites yesterday at the prestigious Canadian Club. However, the title of Poloz’s presentation, “Three things keeping me awake at night” seemed odd, given positive recent Canadian employment, GDP and other data. Full Story
The central bank is not the root cause of the boom-bust cycle. The root cause is fractional reserve banking (the ability of banks to create money and credit out of nothing). The central bank’s effect on the cycle is to extend the booms, make the busts more severe and prevent the investment errors of the boom from being fully corrected prior to the start of the next cycle. Consequently, there are some important relationships between interest rates and the performance of the economy that would hold with or without a central bank, provided that the practice of fractional reserve banking was widespread. Full Story
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