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Weekly Archive

By: Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT - 22 January, 2016

Gold and Silver have held up well during the recent selloff in equities. From December 28 through Wednesday the broad NYSE lost 10.4% while the S&P 500 lost 9.6%. Precious Metals gained strength during that period. Gold advanced 3.0% while Silver gained 1.7%. Gold relative to the NYSE broke its downtrend and touched an 11-month high. Gold relative to global equities (excluding the US market) reached a 2-year high. Precious metals have clearly benefitted from the equity selloff but therefore figure to lose strength as the equity market begins a relief rally. Full Story

By: Bill Holter - 22 January, 2016

What a tangled web the global geopolitical situation has become. Geopolitics and finance have always been interrelated but recently much more so. As many readers know, I have speculated we would be hit over the head with a "truth bomb" from the East and most likely from Mr. Putin himself. Just this week Britain has alleged Mr. Putin personally ordered a "hit" on an ex KGB agent for calling him a pedophile. Another story came out that Turkey shot down a NATO helicopter which made no press coverage at all in the West. Full Story

By: - 22 January, 2016

CEO of Brazil Resources (BRI.V), Amir Adnani makes his show debut - Mr. Adnani has a reputation for moving projects rapidly into production.
Fortune magazine lists Mr. Adnani in the prestigious ranks of “40 Under 40, Ones to Watch” North American executives.
A top investment fund owns 17% of BRI shares - legendary precious metals investor, Rick Rule of Sprott Asset Management. Full Story

By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 22 January, 2016

Gold stocks remain the pariah of the investment world. Despite gold’s strong early-year gains, the stocks of its miners have slumped to new secular lows. This whole forsaken sector continues to languish at fundamentally-absurd price levels, an extreme anomaly that is long overdue to start unwinding. The gold miners will be bid massively higher to reflect their impressive profitability even at today’s dismal gold prices. Full Story

By: Gary Christenson - 22 January, 2016

Several $ Trillion in global debt “pays” negative interest. Loan your capital to an essentially bankrupt government and lose a portion of that capital every year! Strange and crazy! The US government runs deficits – every year – in the $500 Billion to $1 Trillion range. These are the official deficits, not what GAAP accounting would calculate. So what? Just print and borrow more. Strange and crazy! Full Story

By: Stefan Gleason - 22 January, 2016

Have we reached peak precious metals? Many analysts think so. Just to be clear, however, the idea of peak gold and peak silver doesn't refer to a peak prices. The precious metals put in a cyclical price high in 2011. But annual mining production levels may have peaked in 2014-2015. This is what is meant by “peak precious metals.” Full Story

By: Nick Giambruno - 22 January, 2016

The petrodollar system has allowed the U.S. government and many U.S. citizens to live way beyond their means for decades. It also gives the U.S. unchecked geopolitical leverage. The U.S. can exclude virtually any country from the U.S. dollar-based financial system…and, by extension, from the vast majority of international trade. Full Story

By: Gary Tanashian - 22 January, 2016

This article assumes one is trading the up and down swings in the stock market. Swing traders are just one segment of a market population that includes those sitting in cash (and/or risk ‘off’ vehicles like Treasury Bonds), maintaining longer-term short positions, our always bullish friends, the “stocks for the long-term” contingent and of course, the indomitable Gold Bug “community”, focusing as ever on one asset class while a world full of other assets is in motion. Full Story

By: David Haggith - 22 January, 2016

In the fall of 2015, the world descended into an economic apocalypse that will transform the globe into a single cashless society. This bold prediction is based on trends in nations all over the earth as shown in the article below. As we enter 2016, we are only beginning to see this Epocalypse form through the fog of war. The war I’m talking about is the world war waged furiously by central banks against the Great Recession as the governments they supposedly serve fiddled while their capital burned. Full Story

By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 22 January, 2016

As the global stock markets continue to crash, demand for precious metals will continue to increase. Already, the U.S. Mint had to ration Silver Eagles sales due to a shortage of silver blanks. Sales of Silver Eagles in a little more than a week have reached nearly five million oz. Full Story

By: Frank Holmes - 22 January, 2016

How did you spend your $700? That’s how much the average American driver saved at the pump in 2015, according to a report from J.P. Morgan Chase. The bank also found that the savings fueled consumer spending on non-gas related purchases, which, based on credit and debit card transactions, were higher than previously thought. For every dollar saved, Americans spent roughly $0.80 on other things—restaurant visits, appliances, new gadgets and more. Full Story

By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 21 January, 2016

Celebrating their 27th year in the monetary metals business, GATA's supporters at the Miles Franklin bullion shop in Minnesota are planning to travel around the United States making free presentations about the monetary functions of gold and silver. Full Story

By: Market Anthropology - 21 January, 2016

Gold continues to trade out of its post rate hike low – akin to the taper low in December 2014. Our view has been while they both represent similar market reactions, the broader reflection that's played out in the currency markets over the past two years – presents a significant catalyst for gold going forward. Specifically, we expect a much weaker US dollar this year. Full Story

By: Ronan Manly - 21 January, 2016

The hasty exit of Deutsche Bank from the London Gold Market has never been adequately explained by the media. It remains an elephant in the room that the mainstream media does not seem to want to touch. The composition and operating mechanisms of the private LPMCL club is also another elephant in the room that mainstream media journalists have never adequately analysed and are unlikely to do so. Full Story

By: - 21 January, 2016

Nick Barisheff of Bullion Management Group (BMG), notes the Tobin Q ratio and the Shiller index indicate a high probability of a 50% stock market correction.
The scenario presents an interesting contrarian opportunity for inventors to exchange overvalued stocks for undervalued gold.
He compares the current PMs correction to the late 1970's, when gold ascended by 750%. Full Story

By: Dr. Jeffrey Lewis - 21 January, 2016

Hi, everyone, it's Jeff, here. I am pleased, and it's an honor to be here with John Rubino, and many of you know him. John runs It's an excellent ongoing commentary, covering the unfolding macro-financial/currency crisis. He's a contributor, a long time contributor, to CFA magazine, the CFA is the Association for Financial Professionals, if you haven't heard of it. He's been on wall street. He has an MBA in finance. He's a Eurodollar trader, equity analyst, and he became a columnist for, among many other publications. Full Story

By: Koos Jansen - 21 January, 2016

The main reason there is such a large discrepancy between Chinese gold demand as disclosed by the World Gold Council (WGC) and the amount of gold withdrawn from the vaults of the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE), the latter being a measure for Chinese wholesale gold demand, is because of direct purchases by individual and institutional clients at the SGE. Full Story

By: GoldMoney - 21 January, 2016

GoldMoney® Founder James Turk, GoldMoney® Research Head Alasdair Macleod, and GoldMoney® Wealth Services President John Butler discuss recent events in the global economy and their outlook for 2016. Full Story

By: Sol Palha - 20 January, 2016

2015 was not a good year for speculators trying to time the oil markets. Oil kept cutting through each support level like a hot knife cutting through butter. It would give the appearance that it was ready to mount a rally, but that rally would fade, and oil prices would drift lower. We penned an article in Nov of last year, where we stated that oil would have to close above $50 on a weekly basis for it to see higher prices. However, it failed to do that and drifted lower. Full Story

By: Andrew Hoffman - 20 January, 2016

It’s early Wednesday morning – and with oil down to $27.50/bbl; commodities; currencies, equities, and high-yield bonds crashing; and the 10-year Treasury yield – “rate hike” and all – back below 2%; only gold and silver are higher. To that end, anyone who regularly reads or listens to me knows I never predict the exact timing of events – with good reason, given how unconscionably manipulated markets have become. Full Story

By: David Haggith - 20 January, 2016

Lot of people riding the stupid train right now. The stock market opened its third week of the year up 150 points on the Dow and, by midday, proceeded to trip all over its feet again. It is getting funny to watch investors continue to bang their bullheaded, brainless, upper-respiratory junction they call a head against the market’s ceiling. Full Story

By: It's a Mystery - 20 January, 2016

It is quite shocking to me how little fear there is of Central Banks. These monsters have capped gold forever. They recently admitted to creating a stock bull market. Do you really believe that these monsters are simply going to walk away and let it all collapse? Seriously? If you truly believe Central Banks are powerless, you have not read your history. Full Story

By: Frank Holmes - 20 January, 2016

If you want to know about the past, a good place to start is by looking at GDP. It tells you the dollar value of a country or region’s goods and services over a specific time period. But GDP’s like looking in the rearview mirror, in that it shows you where you’ve been and little more. It’s “blind” to what’s ahead of you. Full Story

By: Keith Weiner - 20 January, 2016

It has come to my attention that, perhaps, the great stock bull market is done. To most people, a bull market is good, and its end is bad. After all, a rising market signifies a healthy economy. Investors are making money. And it seems to prove that the free market is validated, able to deliver miracles despite Obamacare. Share prices are connected to business productivity, aren’t they? Full Story

By: Ira Epstein - 19 January, 2016

This question is of course being tossed around given the 40% decline in gold since 2011 Back then, prices hit 1920.7. Without inflation my answer is “maybe” which is a big change for me. I say this because as with other commodities that see prices fall so low as to cause marginal producers to stop producing (oil), gold producers due to low prices continue to cut back on exploration and mining. Global gold production is expected to fall 3% this year, according to a report issued today by Thomson Reuters' GFMS metals research team, which if accurate would end a seven-year streak of rising gold supplies. So far those supplies have reached 3,155 tons in 2015. Full Story

By: Gary Christenson - 19 January, 2016

Gold is priced at about $1,100 per ounce (January 2016) so the US government official national debt is about 17.2 billion ounces of gold. Oops! The math shows there is a shortage of about 17 billion ounces of gold.
Officially the US gold stockpile was over 20,000 tons in the late 1950s and about 8,000 tons (260,000,000 ounces) in 1971. Under fantasy # 2 above, the US gold stockpile would have been entirely sold in a few months of 1971 (and most other years) if deficits had been paid with gold. The US would have been issuing IOU Gold certificates for the past 40+ years. Oops! Full Story

By: Bill Holter - 19 January, 2016

As for the title, someone IS lying and it does not take a rocket scientist to tell "who" it is. Either the Dallas Fed did not give their banks guidance to hide nonperforming loans or the banks decided to do this on their own. If the banks did this on their own, then they and their auditors cooked the books and will face consequences. How do we know this? Oil has gone from $110 to under $30 and while banks have been lending into the energy patch. It was recently estimated that around $250 billion in debt has been lent to companies who are now net cash flow negative and unprofitable with $30 oil, there WILL BE bankruptcies! There is just no way that loan loss reserves are not needed as we are looking at a huge "bubble" inflated and now bursting. Full Story

By: Jeff Thomas - 19 January, 2016

Back in 2008, I began warning of increasing capital controls that we would see in the future, as a component in the decline of Western economies (Western in the broad sense, including Japan, Australia, etc.) Along the way, it occurred to me that, at some point, governments might collectively attempt to eliminate paper currency in favour of an electronic currency - transferred from party to party solely through licensed banks. Sound farfetched? Well, maybe, but what if the U.S. and EU agreed on an overall plan, then suggested it to other governments? Full Story

By: Clint Siegner - 19 January, 2016

Sound money issues make for good politics these days. The leading Republican candidates have all suggested reforms to our monetary system. The topic is popping up in debates as well as interviews. Predictably, Fed worshippers and proponents of central planning everywhere are snickering and trotting out the usual responses. Full Story

By: Daniel R. Amerman, CFA - 19 January, 2016

The Federal Reserve and other regulators around the world (including all members of the G-20) have recently agreed to alter margin rules, which will allow them to claim new powers over lending and leverage. In the United States these developing regulatory changes will not be restricted to the Fed's legal oversight over banks alone, but will affect all financial companies. Full Story

By: Frank Holmes - 19 January, 2016

Over the past five days investors bought 26.8 metric tonnes of bullion through exchange-traded products backed by the metal, according to Bloomberg, the most since January 2015 as seen in the chart below. In addition, Reuters says gold and silver demand is off the charts; the U.S. Mint sold nearly as much gold on the first day of 2016 as in all of January 2015, with silver sales equally as astounding. Full Story

By: Graham Summers - 19 January, 2016

Last week a Central Banker made the most incredible admission in the history of banking. It came from the Bank of Japan. The Bank of Japan has been the leader in global Keynesian insanity. The US Federal Reserve launched its first QE program in 2008. The European Central Bank launched its first QE program in 2015. Full Story

By: Bill Holter - 18 January, 2016

"Peddling fiction" ...this is what Mr. Obama said of anyone who believes and says the U.S. has a weak economy. How ironic he should say this when he did, the State of the Union address? I mean the timing could not have been any better! In a week where oil prices hit a 14 year low, freight rates at over 30 year lows, equity, credit and FOREX markets all over the world crashing and derivatives blowing up. How do we know derivatives are blowing up? Simply because the Dallas Fed has given their banks permission not to mark energy debt to market. In essence, the Fed has instructed their banks TO PEDDLE FICTION! Full Story

By: Captain Hook - 18 January, 2016

We humans come from the jungle, and to the jungle we will return. In fact, the way some people act today, one could conclude we never left. Because people are increasingly acting like animals these days, bringing back the need to think in terms of ‘survival of the fittest’, as modern societies disintegrate. Evidence of this trend is everywhere. You’ve got a global corporatist / statist state (neo-fascist) over-riding all sovereign interests raping (financially, liberties, etc.) Full Story

By: Gary Tanashian - 18 January, 2016

The following is the opening, introductory segment from this week’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole. After setting these general ground rules for swing trading this market, NFTRH 378 clearly illustrated the US market from several different technical, leadership, market indicator and sentiment angles. We also thoroughly updated global markets, currencies and explicitly broke down the gold sector to be clear on what will be in place technically, sector-fundamentally and macro-fundamentally when a real bottom is achieved for this counter-cyclical sector. Full Story

By: Andrew Hoffman - 18 January, 2016

It’s Monday morning, and the “new era” of indefinitely depressed oil prices has officially arrived. To wit, on Saturday, the International Atomic Energy Agency validated Iran’s compliance with the U.S.-led “nuclear deal,” enabling Iran to add 0.5 to 1.5 million barrels per day to global supply this year. This, to a market already sporting record high inventories, and a daily glut of roughly 1.0 million barrels, per this commentary from a Miles Franklin Blog reader this weekend. Full Story

By: Keith Weiner - 18 January, 2016

Remember last week, when the price of silver spiked? On Thursday that week, the price was moving sideways around $14. Then around 5am (Arizona time), the price began to rise. Before 11am, it had hit $14.38. And then it was all over. The price went downhill from there, the rest of the day and all day Friday. It closed at $13.93. Full Story

By: David Haggith - 18 January, 2016

If it weren’t so serious for the world, it would have been funny to watch on Thursday as the stock market rose sharply upon news that oil prices were rising. Robotraders with silicone brains, I thought. Do people really believe today’s rise in the price of oil means anything? There must be a built-in desperation to the robotraders’ algorithms — that would cause them to so desperately bid the market up on such a meaningless hint of good news. Full Story

By: Rambus - 18 January, 2016

Today I would like to take a look at the PM complex as there are some interesting charts building out. Please don’t confuse this report with what Sir Spock, Sir Norvast and others are doing at the Chartology Forum as they’re looking for undervalued PM stocks that will be ready to buy when the time is right. In some cases the time might be now as a few of the PM stocks are holding support. In the vast majority of the cases though, excluding some of the Australian and a few South African PM stocks, most are still under pressure. Full Story

By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 18 January, 2016

Over the last 10 years Allan Gray’s Equity Fund only managed a 14.3% annualized return, while Coronation’s Equity Fund delivered an annualized return of 15.2%, according to their latest fund commentaries. Neither of these two examples take into account the rather spectacular fall we saw in the equity markets over the last two weeks. Full Story

By: - 17 January, 2016

Dr. Burton Malkiel, Professor from Princeton University returns to the show to discus the 11th edition of his magnum opus, A Random Walk Down Wall Street.
His outlook for 2016 is somber - equities and most asset classes seem overvalued.
The CAPE P/E ratio, currently near 23 in the US, which indicates US shares are overpriced relative to global shares, on a historical basis.
Chris welcomes back Dr. Marc Faber, a widely respected economist and editor of the GloomBoomDoom report.
Our guest expects the Fed to backpedal with the new rate hike policy, with the announcement of a new wave of monetary expansion this year, QE 4. Full Story

By: Chris Martenson - 17 January, 2016

Just in the two weeks since the start of 2016, the US equity markets are down almost 10%. Their worst start to the year in history. Many other markets across the world are suffering worse. If you watched stock prices today, you likely had flashbacks to the financial crisis of 2008. At one point the Dow was down over 500 points, the SPX cracked below key support at 1,900, and the price of oil dropped below $30/barrel. Scared investors are wondering: What the heck is happening? Many are also fearfully asking: Are we re-entering another crisis? Full Story

By: Dan Norcini - 17 January, 2016

As long as the size of the Fed’s balance sheet continued to increase on account of their purchases of both US Treasuries as well as Mortgage Backed Securities, the liquidity boosted stocks inexorably higher, in spite of the fact that the underlying economic growth was mediocre at best. In other words, the seeming disconnect between what we were seeing on Wall Street and what Main Street was experiencing was most baffling to many observers. If one looked only at the stock markets, they would no doubt come away believing that this economy was one of the best in decades. That was in sharp contrast to the struggling US consumer dealing with relatively stagnant wages and rising health care costs and a employment picture that was not nearly as robust as the headline numbers coming out of DC would suggest. Full Story

By: Koos Jansen - 17 January, 2016

Did the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) just ceased publishing the weekly amount of gold withdrawn from the vaults? If so, the SGE has chosen to add another layer of secrecy over the Chinese gold market. As, SGE withdrawals provide a unique metric for Chinese wholesale gold demand. This started on 11 January 2016 when the SGE released the “Announcement on Clarification of Some Terms in Delivery-related Data Reports”. In the announcement the SGE states it will be publishing more detailed data regarding the “delivery amount”, “delivery ratio” and “load-out volume” in future Market Data Weekly Reports. Full Story

By: Dan Stinson - 17 January, 2016

There has been extensive discussion, questioning the current decline and if a bear market has begun. We called the May 2015 top in the DOW last year with the decline in August 2015 as wave (1) down and the following rally as wave (2) up. The equity markets are now in wave (3) down. We published a previous newsletter which explained bubbles and parabolic advances and we are now seeing the effects of these historic advances. Parabolic advances ALWAYS end poorly and retrace the entire advance of the parabolic move. The DOW spent most of 2015 in a topping process and has now broken down with substantial downside ahead. Full Story

By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 17 January, 2016

I believe the recent spike in SHFE silver inventories is due to the sudden drop of industrial silver demand and export products. The majority of Chinese silver consumption is industrial, not investment. Precious metal investors need to keep watch of what takes place in the broader markets over the next 2-3 months. If we continue to see a collapse of the U.S. and global stock markets, this could force the Fed and Central Banks to actually go to negative interest rates. Negative interest rates will force more wealthy investors out of paper and into the precious metals. Full Story

By: John Mauldin - 17 January, 2016

I see it every December and January: in the flurry of economic and political forecasts, someone says we ought to “expect a surprise.” Phrases like this drive the writer part of me crazy. A surprise, by definition, is something you don’t expect, so telling us to expect one makes no sense. They might as well say, “Expect the warm water to be cold.” The words don’t go together that way. Full Story

By: Andy Sutton - 17 January, 2016

First I must offer an apology of sorts for being in absentia for an extended period of time. I would imagine that those of you who struggle to keep up with the demands of work, family, and everyday stresses understand this, but I apologize anyway. There are links on the blog to the Liberty Talk Radio appearances I’ve made over the past few months just to prove that I’m still vertical. Graham joins me once again and as always has some interesting takeaways. Full Story

By: Warren Bevan - 17 January, 2016

An absolutely horrific week for markets with any attempt at a bounce being sold hard with much of the weakness occurring overnight in the futures, which makes it very dangerous to try to trade at the moment. I was long looking for a bounce using the usual leading stocks but I had to take small losses once the action told me it was not going to bounce. Full Story

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