By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 22 January, 2010
The gold market changed dramatically in 2009 and thanks to GFMS we now have evidence of these changes. The main features of these changes are: -Mine production was up by 6% in 2009. Supply of gold scrap was up by 27%. Jewelry demand was down by 23%. World Investment jumped from 885 tonnes to 1820 tonnes, a year-on-year gain of 105%. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence LLC - 22 January, 2010
Seasonality, the tendency for prices to consistently move in the same direction at particular times in the calendar year, is always fascinating. While it is intuitive for commodities dominated by orbital-mechanics-driven annual patterns, such as natural-gas demand surging in the cold winters, seasonality also exists in commodities without clear calendar connections. Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital, Inc. - 22 January, 2010
Like many football fans around the country, I recently tuned into a heavily promoted 60 Minutes segment on the uncanny ability of tiny American Samoa to produce a steady stream of NFL players. Although it was certainly interesting to learn how Pacific island warrior culture translated seamlessly into the disciplines of American football, and how the island's players adapted to the hard-scrabble terrain and poorly funded athletic fields, the most interesting aspect of the piece concerned economics rather than sports. Full Story
t certain times, focusing on the big picture is important not just for investment success, but for personal welfare, and even survival. We believe such times are here. It is estimated that 98% of Americans have never held a gold coin in their hands. Yet 100% of Americans regularly handle Federal Reserve Notes. From a contrarian standpoint, the financial message from those two statistics is clear. Full Story
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor - 22 January, 2010
The potential for the dollar to mount a very strong rally increases with the passage of each, especially in light of the recent negative developments in Greece. A breakdown in Greece could trigger a domino effect by first affecting other weak countries such as Italy, Ireland, Spain and Portugal. A strong rally in the dollar by default is going to lead a strong pull back in the Euro and this could in turn lead to a much stronger than expected pull back in Gold. Full Story
Thursday’s landmark Supreme Court decision has been called everything from proper to despicable and misguided. Clearly in the historical realm, every nation, empire, and circumstance of human organization has clear signposts that mark first progress, then the eventual destruction of the entity. Full Story
By: Daniel Aaronson and Lee Markowitz - 22 January, 2010
The most recent establishment survey on monthly job losses reported a loss of 85,000 jobs in December. December’s number showed considerable improvement from the peak loss of 741,000 jobs reported for January 2009. Full Story
Those who disbelieve the claims that the International Mega-Bank Elite – The Cartel* as we call them – are aiming for World Domination and World Government, are advised to carefully consider the bolded quotes in the Ambrose Evans-Pritchard article above. Full Story
As the 10-year gold bull continues its stunning run, rumors of fakery seem to be cropping up as fast as new Eagles can be minted. Should you be worried? Do you need to run to the coin shop for a home test kit?
Well, the counterfeiters are out there, and have been for millennia, but how to counter them? Full Story
By: Gary Dorsch, Editor, Global Money Trends - 22 January, 2010
Although the US remains the world’s #1 economy it’s increasingly feeling the heat of a Chinese dragon, breathing down its neck. At the beginning of the twenty-first century, the US-economy was eight-times larger than China’s - a decade later the figure was down to four-times. China’s $4.9-trillion economy has already passed Germany’s to become the world’s third largest, and is on course to overtake #2 Japan this year. Full Story
By: John Browne, Senior Market Strategist, Euro Pacific Capital - 22 January, 2010
Having been among the economic engines of Europe for much of the past decade, it appears as if the British economy has run out of steam. Inflation is rising while bankruptcies and unemployment continue to swell. It is a problem that would have left Lord Keynes' head spinning. In many ways, the responses of the U.S. and U.K. governments to the financial crisis have been very similar. Full Story
In the weeks ahead, there should be at least another item or two here on the subject of the Great Depression as I've taken to re-reading a couple of very important books on the topic after not having touched them for years. Today, it seemed like a good idea to share a few thoughts. Full Story
Silver prices still have a long way to rise before reaching their top. From industrial applications to its relative value, it’s easy to make the case that silver remains one of the most undervalued commodities. Full Story
By: The Energy Report and Mickey Fulp - 22 January, 2010
Mercenary Geologist Mickey Fulp says that 2009's "flavor of the year"—rare earth elements—will sport that same label in 2010. A major driving force, the momentum building in green technology, is expected to take global consumption to 200,000 tons annually by 2015 (from approximately 108,000 tons in 2007). Full Story
The Goldsmiths 122 and 124 broached a trick now being used by the Federal Reserve Bank to manipulate and control the markets. Bloomberg had a story by Craig Torres on or about Dec 31st on Federal Reserve officials are considering a proposal to schedule limited sales of bonds from the central bank’s $2.2 trillion balance sheet as part of a range of tools for withdrawing record monetary stimulus. Torres’ story touched upon this trick as being contemplated by the Fed to juggle the markets still further in coming days. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman and Mario Cavolo - 22 January, 2010
We put the knock on China the other day – not for the first time -- in a commentary concerning Google’s security problems there. This elicited a fascinating response from reader Mario Cavolo, a frequent contributor to the Rick’s Picks forum who lives and works in Shanghai as a motivational speaker. We asked him to expand his remarks, which cast China in a very bullish light. Full Story
I am closely watch how gold pulls back after the rally on Monday. If prices hold the 18-Day Average of Closes on the Daily Chart and close higher late in the week, my belief is that prices will be ready to rally into month’s end. Seasonally speaking there is a story for this that I will cover in my next report. Full Story
Although the picture this past year has been bleak, there are plenty of bright spots around the world. We touched on this point in one of our recent essays, and we would like to elaborate further. In economic terms, this decade was very kind to countries like China, India, Brazil and Indonesia. If you exclude the U.S., they also happen to be the four most populous nations in the world (The U.S. ranks third.) Full Story
Not enough money exists for the UK to repay its private-sector debts at the moment. Where-oh-where might the cash come from...? WELL AT LEAST we now know the Bank of England isn't front-running its personal accounts or pension scheme with inside information. Full Story
Many people are wrongly panicked by this small move lower in gold. It’s healthy action in a bull market. Enjoy the chance to buy if you are looking to, otherwise welcome this respite. We humans have to both inhale, and exhale. So do markets, this inhalation will lead to another healthy day in gold’s bull market. Full Story
With the big $27an ounce sell off in gold on Wednesday, many are ready to throw in the towel, again. Every time we have a significant sell off, on any given day, everyone gets panicky. We have seen this numerous times in the past and we will continue to see days of panic in this long term bull market. Full Story
Volumes on the Nasdaq Dubai share trading platform grew by 30 per cent to 3.1 billion shares last year, a rate of growth that could power this minor global exchange to prominence over the coming years, despite and even because of the economic woes presently afflicting Dubai. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 21 January, 2010
A forecast for Comex Gold sent out to subscribers Monday night came within a dime of nailing the low of yesterday’s $33 plunge. That’s the good news, and some subscribers evidently were able to make hay with the prediction. The bad news is that it looks doubtful that the 1106.80 print that marked the February contract’s intraday low will hold, given the recent strength in the U.S. dollar. Full Story
My thinking about the stock market is this: corporations have done as "well" as they have mainly by cutting expenses. Laying people off, that sort of thing. So the bottom lines have not fallen as far as we might expect – but the top line has been hit. Revenues are falling for corporations across the board. Full Story
Well, this is a pretty pass. Deflation in all things except inflation... THEY WERE SUPPOSED to avert depression. The Bank of England continues to tout their "success". But it looks like the best that money-printing and zero rates might now deliver is '70s-style stagflation, plus '30s-style wealth destruction and a glacé cherry on top. Full Story
If — and this is the big flaw in Frank’s argument — the U.S. dumped its gold on the open market it would be seen, correctly, as the final unmooring of the dollar from even the pretence of being backed by anything other than our faith in the competence and honesty of Ben Bernanke, Nancy Pelosi, Chris Dodd, Barney Frank, et al. Gold would fall for a couple of months as the technical traders were once again suckered, and then it would soar as the implications became clear. Full Story
Offshore investing is one of those things that’s easy to do but hard to do well. Whip out a reasonably hefty checkbook and you’ll find lots of smooth operators ready to sell you a Latin American beachfront condo, Swiss bullion account or sure-thing Chinese stock, all wrapped up in an impressive-sounding trust or LLC. But of course these things aren’t always what they seem... Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 20 January, 2010
Last January we predicted that there would be another stimulus program this year. Congress has already passed legislation to continue unemployment benefits, which the Senate will approve as well. Those out of work cannot survive without such assistance, as our transnational conglomerates continue to send our jobs to foreign lands. The question is will the unemployed, as a result, receive benefits indefinitely, as these elitist corporations park their profits in tax havens tax-free? Full Story
By: Neil Charnock & Rowan Charnock - 20 January, 2010
Today we have central banks being net buyers of bullion as gold re-establishes itself as a credible and essential part of the global monetary system. Today the gold mining sector in Australia is a major export earner and a vital part of our economy. It supports many country towns providing employment and even tourism benefits. Full Story
By: The Gold Report and Craig Stanley - 19 January, 2010
Pinetree Capital Resource Analyst Craig Stanley sheds some light for The Gold Report on how real interest rates are driving gold's rise. Although the 10-year real rate is positive now, he says if it goes negative, and stays negative, "Look out. The gold price could really spike." In this exclusive Gold Report interview, he discusses some of the junior exploration and development companies in Pinetree's portfolio. Full Story
Mexico’s ever-expanding gold mining industry is on-target for another banner year in 2010. In fact, output is expected to jump by an additional 880,000 ounces next year to nearly 2.5 million ounces, representing an approximately 50% increase over 2009’s projected figures (which have yet to be announced). Full Story
For the past 10 years I have been fighting the CFTC to do the right thing when it comes to ending the manipulation of gold and silver. At times, I have been very accusatory and I would like to apologize to you for that. For the most part you are all fairly new to this Commission and I don’t believe that you were involved in the cover up over all these years...although there are some within the CFTC legal staff that are and they should be investigated. Full Story
By: Dr. Ron Paul, U.S. Congressman - 19 January, 2010
Last week, the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission kicked off their first round of hearings on the causes of the economic meltdown on Wall Street. The commission is being compared to the the Pecora Commission launched in 1932 to investigate the causes of the Great Depression. The Pecora commission is beloved by those who believe the solution to every problem is more laws because it was used to justify a number of new laws, including Glass-Steagall. Full Story
This week, we would like to provide our thoughts on the precious metals stocks sector. After all, PMs usually move along with the corresponding equities, so analyzing PM stocks is useful even if you are interested in trading / investing in metals only. Full Story
By: Frank Holmes, U.S. Global Investors Inc. - 19 January, 2010
We’ve updated our popular Periodic Table of Commodity Returns, and the headline news should come as no surprise – 2009 was a complete turnaround for the sector’s 2008 performance. Full Story
Be it Wall Street, Greenspan, politicians, money managers, or even homeowners, there are plenty of parties to blame for the financial crisis. However, given that the blame game is still alive when it comes to dissecting the Great Depression, why bother? In other words, why waist time casting aspersions on those players who were operating out of a play book that our regulators at least implicitly sanctioned? The bankers paraded in front of the cameras last week should not be treated as convictable criminals. However, the regulators that failed and are failing to fight for real change should be. Full Story
I like round numbers because they are easier to count. For example, on 14 July 2009 I recommended buying platinum at $1,118 and today it trades at $1,618. I like an unrealized gain of $500 per ounce, or 23.1%, in 6 months. But is platinum overvalued and how can we tell whether we should buy more, hold or sell? Full Story
Forget about the flight to the dollar at the peak of the financial crisis: the yen was the ultimate beneficiary. The endlessly quoted unwinding of the carry trade was a factor, but there may have been a more important force at play. As that force may now be under increased pressure, the yen may be in trouble. The force we are talking about is the free market. Full Story
In short, the China miracle is in progress and will not be stopped. But just as the US dealt with the great depression along the way to 20th century dominance, so too will China deal with a multitude of issues along the way. Not least of which will be extricating itself from the twisted and complex relationship it has going with the great consumer of last resort. Full Story
By: Steven Saville, Speculative Investor - 19 January, 2010
Anticipation of a Fed rate-hiking campaign could be an excuse for an intermediate-term gold correction at some point, but there is almost no chance that the Fed will become 'tight' enough to end gold's long-term upward trend. In our opinion, an extension of gold's bull market to at least 2013-2014 is 'baked into the cake' based on the money-supply growth that has already occurred. Full Story
Well, that was another year, and decade, one that was characterized by exacting prices for almost a century of easy money led by the Fed. And it continues today with bubble dynamics in economies and markets considered a normal expectation these days, explaining why gold was top performer over the past 10-years, and should remain in that spot moving forward as well baring silver’s remonetization. Full Story
We are in the eye of the storm and when the other side of the vortex engulfs us gold and silver will increase considerably, their associated stocks will go up substantially and their warrants, where available, will escalate dramatically. They did so in 2009 (see below) and will most likely do so again in 2010. Does your portfolio properly reflect the opportunities that will continue to present themselves in 2010 and beyond? Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 19 January, 2010
Traders should brace for a celebration on Wall Street Wednesday if Massachusetts Republican Scott Brown wins Teddy Kennedy’s seat in the U.S. Senate. A Brown victory in Tuesday’s special election would destroy the Democrats’ filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, and with it President Obama’s damn-the-torpedoes effort to steer the country hard-left. Full Story
1st Hour: Headline news & the Market Weatherman Report. Spotlight Stock Picks. Host Chris Waltzek & The International Forecaster discussion and listener's questions. 2nd Hour: -Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru Report -John Mauldin, Finance Author -David Morgan, Silver Expert Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 18 January, 2010
We have to ask ourselves what prompts investors large and small to go out and buy gold for their portfolios. Are they moved by a single piece of news that is seen on television or one piece of U.S. economic news? No, the average gold investor has accumulated reasons over time, which convinces him that it is wise to hold gold. Full Story
The gold market appears to be just a little past a crucial turning point. At the time of the Dec. 3, 2009 top, my expectation was for a short term decline to $1,000. It appears that this was too pessimistic, and the evidence now says that gold had a short term bottom at $1,075 on Dec. 22, 2009. Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 18 January, 2010
The 10-year T-note auction showed a bid to cover of 3 to 1, versus a 10 auction average of 2.67%. We have been told over and over again a weak dollar would build exports and turn our balance of payments deficit down. Well, it hasn’t happened yet. Full Story
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors - 18 January, 2010
Last week we delved into the uncertainties that face us and that make forecasting for 2010 problematical. Will the government actually increase taxes as much as they say, with unemployment still likely to be at 10%? Or will cooler heads prevail? Would such an increase cause a recession? Will the markets anticipate the effects of such a major increase in advance? Full Story
Sound money is the hallmark of a prosperous society. Fraudulent money impoverishes and enslaves societies, and history teaches it commonly rips them apart in blood-soaked wars. Sound money not only imposes fiscal discipline upon government, impeding reckless federal spending and imprudent warfare, but it also provides a stable unit of account, store of value, and medium of exchange for entrepreneurs, businesses, and individuals. Full Story
Many have wondered why the 10-year cycle peak in late September/early October didn’t produce a more meaningful correction in the broad market. Instead, the 10-year cycle peak produced only a marginal six percent pullback in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) instead of the much deeper one usually associated with the 10-year peak. Full Story
This week’s letter is abbreviated since most things were mentioned in the update to subscribers, and quite frankly that long update burnt me out. To be sure the major indices are still a buy, but there is more and more talk that a double-dip recession coming soon and I agree. While the charts still say buy, I’d be careful. Full Story
Unexpected events often have a shock effect on the markets. The shock may last for some time or go away quickly. As far as the precious metals market is concerned, the recent earthquake should have only a minor effect. Full Story
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