Well Gerald, one of the hot topics in the markets today is the escalating trade tensions. Trump just announced another $200 billion in tariffs on China and he looks ready to more than double that if the Chinese should retaliate. The President is confident the U.S. can win a trade war. Do you share that optimism? How do you see this playing out? Full Story
GATA today is appealing to the council's founder, investment fund manager John Paulson, to allow GATA to make a presentation to the council about the longstanding policy of Western governments and central banks to intervene in the gold market surreptitiously to suppress the monetary metal's price. Full Story
Shortly after I posted publicly last week’s article, “Is the COT Report Still Valid?,” commentary on my article was posted by Chris Powell, from GATA, suggesting that I consider the possibility that JPMorgan may be operating in the silver and gold markets as an agent under orders from the US Government and not as a principal for its own account (as I believe). I want to thank Chris for offering his input and I’m not kidding when I say it’s much better for an article to generate interest than to be ignored. Full Story
Investors have pulled much capital out of gold in recent months in a major mass exodus. Their sentiment waxed very bearish as gold was pounded lower by extreme record gold-futures short selling. The latest record stock-market highs also suppressed the perceived need for diversifying portfolios with gold. But this heavy investment gold selling is slowing, and should reverse sharply once stock markets roll over again. Full Story
The U.S. imposed new tariffs on China this week that were close to the worst possible scenario, despite mainstream media comments to the contrary. The fact that China responded with nothing more than 5-10% tariffs on $60bln of U.S. imports soothed the markets, and stocks rallied. The mistake being made, however, is that China is unlikely done retaliating just yet, and there is likely more to come. What is clear is that neither side is willing to back down in this trade war, so it is probably going to get worse. Full Story
There is a widespread notion among investors, analysts and pundits that the escalating trade conflict between the U.S. and its trading partners is bad for the global economy. This is no stretch. The leap from there to it being bad for commodities is understandable, but less certain. Still, people who should know, like those running the world's largest mining company, are saying it's so. Full Story
In response, GATA is asking the commission whether its jurisdiction covers futures market manipulation by the U.S. government or brokers acting for the U.S. government, or whether such manipulation is authorized by law, like the Gold Reserve Act of 1934 as amended in the 1970s, which established the U.S. Treasury Department's Exchange Stabilization Fund. Full Story
This time is different. They always say so. But what if they are eventually right? We invite you to read our today’s article about the history of the Fed’s tightening and find out what is exceptional with the current cycle. And what does it mean for the gold market. Full Story
A subscriber who qualifies as a Hidden Pivot ace broached a Dow rally target at 40,000 Thursday in the chat room, but I’m not keen on encouraging such speculation. Applying Hidden Pivot analysis to the long-term picture, I can make a case for a move to 34,450 but no higher. Even then, bulls would need to get past two formidable Hidden Pivot resistances at lower levels. They lie, respectively, at 27,251 (just 600 points above current levels!); and at 28,897. Either looks sufficient to turn back the bullish herd, at least for a while, and both are capable of ending the bull market. Full Story
Dr. Raymond Moody, renowned psychiatrist; author of best-selling Life after Life (1974) and founder of The University of Heaven makes his show debut. The host is reunited with the former forensic therapist 30 years after sitting in Dr. Moody's undergraduate class. Our embarked upon a remarkable-lifelong scientific journey to uncover the truth about life beyond death. Full Story
Centrist coalitions faced with a non-mainstream challenge have two choices: Either bring in new partners from the other end of the spectrum (in this case the left) or co-opt the right wing populists by adopting some of the latter’s policies. The Christian Social Union has apparently chosen door number two. Full Story
Without Googling, try to guess who said the following quote: “If everybody indexed, the only word you could use is chaos, catastrophe. The markets would fail.” Give up? The speaker, believe it or not, is John Bogle, founder of Vanguard, which has been at the forefront of indexing. Bogle made the comment last year at the Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting, basically admitting that there’s a limit to the amount of passive investing the market can handle and still function efficiently. Full Story
Have we learned anything from Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy? On Saturday, there was a 10-year anniversary of the symbolic beginning of the global financial crisis. So it’s a great opportunity to discuss lessons from the Lehman’s collapse and the post-crisis legacy for the gold market. Full Story
John Williams of Shadowstats.com returns to the show with dire comments on the domestic economy. US policymakers have attempted to revive the domestic economy via $14 trillion QE policies requiring $100 billion per month in QE operations. 9 interest rate increases will occur in the current rate hike cycle as of December, 2018 (Hunter/Pento, 2018). Full Story
The sales of Silver Eagles surged in September as the U.S. Mint removed their temporary supply restriction. As the silver price continued to trend to new lows at the beginning of the month, several large purchases of Silver Eagles by the Authorized Dealers wiped out the inventory at the U.S. Mint. The U.S. Mint had cut back on its monthly supply due to the falling demand. Full Story
By: Avi Gilburt with Ryan Wilday - 20 September, 2018
The perspective that most have about Bitcoin ranges from complete lack of knowledge to utter certainty that it will change the world. Moreover, there are really no true “fundamentals” with which analysts are able to even attempt to value it based upon traditional methods. But, that certainly has not stopped everyone and their mother from providing their opinion based upon their “feelings.” Full Story
By: Jordan Roy-Byrne CMT, MFTA - 19 September, 2018
Gold stocks failed to breakout in the spring and then brokedown to multi-year lows by September. As autumn beckons, the precious metals sector at large is very oversold and could be starting a rebound. However, the fundamentals are not yet in place for a new bull market. They will be when the Fed moves to the end of this rate hike cycle. Although gold stocks and most commodity stocks are mired in downtrends, that isn’t the case for uranium stocks which appear to be on the cusp of a new bull market. Full Story
I shall pass along my thoughts on the tenth anniversary of the 2008 bank bailouts, currency chaos and the un-precious metals in no particular order and with no specific agenda. More important, I want to pay tribute to a writer whose work I truly love, Rolling Stone magazine's Matt Taibbi. Taibbi's work reminds me of an era-gone-by when reporters actually reported and where "fake news" was at the least an excuse for the originator to be blackballed from the journalistic fraternity and at the worst a jail sentence. Full Story
We have some good news and some bad news for both: precious metals bulls and bears. Based on new developments it’s even more likely that we are just before the huge price decline in gold, silver, and mining stocks, but at the same time it also appears likely that the final bottom will take place later than we had expected, based on the previously available information. Full Story
As part of Merk's in-house research we regularly evaluate a consistent set of charts covering the economy, equities, fixed income, commodities and currencies. The aim is to keep our eyes open and to look through the noise of the headlines, avoiding the distractions of sensationalized click-bait. In sharing this content, we offer a cross-check to your own thinking and aim to add value to your own process. Full Story
A key difference between silver and gold prices is the fact that silver already bottomed in 1993, whereas gold bottomed only in 1999. This means that from 1993 to 1999 silver was actually in an uptrend, while gold was still caught in a downtrend. This little known fact might not have been so important to date; however, it might become more important as this bull market progresses. Full Story
The question on the minds of many investors, is which of the precious metals will be better investments during the next market crash? I should know because I receive this question in my email box quite often. So, I decided to test the price action of several metals and how each traded during a large market correction. Full Story
Wall Street has done a great job tuning out a tariff war that has grown every bit as menacing as Smoot-Hawley must have seemed in 1929. Admittedly, even Rick’s Picks at its most dour assumed just a few short months ago that everything would turn out hunky-dory. Clearly that has not been the case, at least not so far, and the prospect of China capitulating at the eleventh hour appears to be dimming. Perhaps Monday’s mild weakness in the broad averages -- blithely retraced and then some on Tuesday -- was caused by a few sensible traders tiptoeing toward the fire escape? Full Story
With the news now behind us regarding U.S. tariffs and Chinese retaliation, the prices of many commodities were soaring on Tuesday. Many, but not all—with the exception being COMEX gold and COMEX silver. Why? Full Story
The Trump-versus-Fed feud will likely heat up again in December if the central bank raises its benchmark short-term rate at its scheduled policy meeting. Although a December hike is far from certain, Fed chair Jay Powell and company seem intent on raising interest rates again – and possibly a couple more times in 2019 if the markets don’t melt down before then. Full Story
Let’s face it, America cannot win a trade war right now. They are running “tremendous” (in Trump language) deficits, an unfathomably large debt, and rely on the printing of money and the largesse of other countries to buy its debt in the form of US Treasuries. The government is almost entirely beholden to foreign entities for it to be able to function. This is no way to run a country. Full Story
As the US business cycle peaks, I suspect it will be a “stagflationary” peak, and silver stocks tend to be market darlings in that situation. 2019 looks like it could be a very interesting year for silver price enthusiasts, and the short term indicators suggest the time to get poised for the upside fun is right now! Full Story
By: Andy Sutton and Graham Mehl - 18 September, 2018
This will not be a long piece. It is not a memorial to Lehman Brothers nor is it an honorarium to the system that created Lehman, then crushed it along with a wide swath of American wealth and capital as well. This is not a tribute to government leaders such as Henry Paulson and others at the USTreasury who abused the trust afforded them by the American people and conducted one of the most brazen and heinous broad-daylight robberies in the history of the human race. Full Story
If you rely on the mainstream financial press for your information then you could be forgiven for believing that financial crises happen with no warning. However, there are always warnings if you know where to look. Full Story
Florence, now a tropical depression, made landfall in North Carolina on Friday, bringing with it destruction and calamity, the cost of which could top $170 billion, according to analytics firm CoreLogic. If so, that would make it the costliest storm ever to hit the U.S. To date, 2005’s Hurricane Katrina holds the top spot, costing an estimated $160 billion, followed by last year’s Harvey ($125 billion) and Maria ($90 billion). Full Story
On August the 24th, 2018, we published Gold News Monitor in which we wondered whether inflation has peaked. Now, we know the answer: it indeed peaked in July. The CPI has reached 2.7 percent in August over the last 12 months, a slowdown from 2.9 percent in the previous month, as one can see in the chart below. It was the first decline in annual rate in almost a year. The yearly change in the core CPI, which excludes food and energy, also decelerated from 2.4 to 2.2 percent. Full Story
Silver market analyst and rigging critic Ted Butler today explains why, despite the extreme conditions it reflects, he believes that the gold and silver futures market trader positioning data reported by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is still accurate and predictive. The data, Butler asserts, is no more extreme than the prices of the monetary metals themselves. He continues to construe the data as the most bullish ever for the metals. Full Story
There can be little question that there has been a literal explosion in awareness and public commentary focusing on the Commitments of Traders (COT) Report and the analysis of silver and gold (and other markets) in accordance with futures market positioning. No doubt the interest has been generated by the reliability of the COT market structure approach over the long term, but also by the recent extreme and unprecedented massive size of the short positions of the managed money traders in gold and, particularly, in silver. The managed money short position in COMEX silver futures is now nearly 50% larger than it was at the previous record peak in April. Full Story
The best performing metal this week was platinum, up 1.40 percent as hedge funds cut their bearish outlook in the futures market. Gold traders and analysts were bullish for a fourth week in a row, as measured by a Bloomberg survey. Gold futures had their biggest gain in two weeks after almost 22,000 December contracts changed hands on the Comex in New York in only 10 minutes as inflation data came in weaker than expected. Full Story
This past week marked two important historic events. This is the 17th anniversary of the attacks on September 11, 2001. The second was the near collapse of the global financial system following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers (LEHNQ-Pink Sheets) on September 15, 2008. Two dates that will live on in infamy. Full Story
For about ten bucks a month, Netflix will give you all the movies you can watch, plus tons of TV show series and other programs, such as one-off science documentaries. They don’t offer all movies, merely more than you can watch. Oh, and there are no commercials. Full Story
My long-term expectations remain the same. For years, I have had a minimum target of 3011, with an ideal target of 3225. As long as support holds (and we will continue to raise that support should we continue higher), then I have every expectation that my targets will be met. But, I also have to remind you that, while I have been a staunch bull for years despite all the negative news that has bombarded the market, I am getting closer and closer to turning neutral, or even outright bearish, especially as we approach our long-term targets, or if we break our support. This is really all that matters in order to keep you on the right side of this market. Everything else is simply noise. Full Story
In many ways, all the talk about global central banks beginning a “great unwind” of their extraordinary monetary stimulus is positively quaint. After all, how can officials from the Federal Reserve to the Bank of Japan even pretend to know how to reverse what they’ve done over the past decade? Full Story
December Gold has trapped bulls with fake rallies two days in a row. It dove even more steeply on Friday, the second day, falling from a 1213.80 peak recorded in the dead of night to an end-of-session low at 1197.80. This kind of price action is bound to discourage bulls, and it could only occur if too many of them are too eager to jump on the futures every time they show a spark of life. Price action has been worse than discouraging, actually, it has been viciously punitive. That's why I will continue to remind you that, in the minds of most investors, gold is garbage. That description may sound harsh, but its purpose is to keep you from thinking that mere hopefulness will suffice to turn gold around. Full Story
Although it didn’t appear to be a breakdown, silver just closed the day (and week) at a new yearly low. Remember the day when silver moved briefly below $14? Ultimately, silver futures closed at $14.15 on that day, and they just closed at $14.14 on Friday. So little, yet so much. Breakdown confirmed by weekly closes is something very significant and yet, it’s not the most important thing that we will comment on in today’s analysis. Full Story
Peter Schiff, head of SchiffGold, Euro Pacific Capital, and Euro Pacific Gold Fund (EPGFX) returns with comments on the financial sector. Our guest notes that gold reached a bear market nadir in 2015 and is building a base for a new bull run. Once the move begins in earnest, the gold / silver ratio will collapse as silver outperforms gold during much of the advance. Full Story
A preface is required to explain that the US Federal Reserve is responsible for every grand financial crisis in the last 30 years, dating back to the Great Depression and its supposed spurious resolution to Black Monday of 1987. Little realized is that the ’87 crash was a direct result of the impact from outsourcing US industry, whose trend began in 1984 with Intel. Full Story
Too many investors have become fixated on stock Demand Growth due to global central bank liquidity injections, record high investor sentiment and (thanks to the sugar high of Trump Tax reductions) improving US Economic data. No doubt all have been important! However, it has become increasingly critical to properly assess Shrinking Stock Supply to know both why the stock market may still continues rising in the face of Quantitative Tightening and what consequentially might trigger an equity market reversal. The Three Major US Stock Market "Pools" are all shrinking in a dramatic and stealth fashion. Full Story
Economic reality isn’t black and white. At any given time, both good things and bad things are happening. Ignoring one side because it doesn’t fit your preferred outlook is an excellent way to go badly wrong. Full Story
It is now possible to pencil in how the next credit crisis is likely to develop. At its centre is an overvalued dollar over-owned by foreigners, puffed up on speculative flows driven by interest rate differentials. These must be urgently corrected by the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan if the distortion is to be prevented from becoming much worse. Full Story
Okay, so you’re right for a long period of time, you realize the moment that the favored plan is aborting (per a subscriber update on Tuesday) and you adjust. It’s simple, if you’re keeping the pulse of things. You are going to be wrong sometimes about the stock market. That is the stock market’s job; to try to make you wrong. It is in the bias-free adjustments that success lay. We had a bullish view all summer and now it appears to be extending instead of terminating. Full Story
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