Heading into 2017, Wall Street was excited by the prospect of a U.S. president who sympathized completely with business. His promised tax and healthcare reforms were widely cheered by investors in the wake of his election. Yet the Congress has so far failed to deliver on those promises and investors are no longer giving the Trump administration a free pass based on the assumption that tax breaks are on the way. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 21 July, 2017
The gold-futures and silver-futures short positions held by speculators have rocketed up to extremes in recent weeks. These elite traders are aggressively betting for further weakness in gold and silver prices. But history has proven extreme shorts are a powerful contrarian indicator. Right as speculators wax the most bearish as evidenced by their collective bets, gold and silver decisively bottom and birth major new rallies. Full Story
In last week’s article, I had noted that as long as the XIV was able to hold the 83.93 level, I expected to see it hit the 87.76 – 91.53 zone into this week with the potential to see a move into the mid 90’s prior to making a large degree top. Full Story
It’s the elephant in the room; the guest no one wants to talk to—debt! Total global debt is estimated to be about $217 trillion and some believe it could be as high as $230 trillion. In 2008, when the global financial system almost collapsed global debt stood at roughly $142 trillion. The growth since then has been astounding. Instead of the world de-leveraging, the world has instead leveraged up. While global debt has been growing at about 5% annually, global nominal GDP has been averaging only about 3% annually (all measured in US$). Full Story
There are currently two important items on the Fed’s wish list. The first is to restore interest rates to more normal levels, and the second is to unwind the Fed’s balance sheet, which has expanded since the great financial crisis, principally through quantitative easing (QE). Is this not just common sense? Full Story
With US equities at a record zenith and the Fed Head proclaiming the end of financial crisies, Peter Grandich of Peter Grandich and Company returns.\ Our guest is far than enthusiastic over the prospects of US equities. Having gained international recognition for forecasting the major tops in 1987, 2000 and 2008 - he sticks his neck out. He cautions investors about what could be an imminent top in US equities. Full Story
The Fed and other central banks have added many $ trillions to their balance sheets since 2008. Official U.S. national debt is roughly $10 trillion larger in ten years. Consumer prices are higher, stocks and bonds have been levitated, the DOW and SPX are trading at all-time highs, and the markets haven’t crashed … YET. Something will puncture the bubble in stocks and bonds. Bubbles in currencies and confidence in central banks also await pins. Full Story
Palladium is another element with great importance to the modern economy, but it’s often overshadowed by the other more famous and expensive precious metals. As the chart below shows, palladium has been generally cheaper than platinum – its more expensive substitute in industrial use and jewelry. Full Story
Central Bankers are absolutely terrified. In the last month, both Fed President Janet Yellen and ECB President Mario Draghi have issued somewhat hawkish statements, only to turn around within 48 hours and walk back their comments. Again, two of the most powerful Central Bankers in the world couldn’t even last three days being hawks. Full Story
A rally with exactly 40 points of potential — equivalent to about 320 Dow points — looms if the futures are going to fulfill the 2512.00 Hidden Pivot target shown. However, the move through the midpoint pivot at 2457 was labored, implying that a quick ascent to 2512.00 is somewhat unlikely. Accordingly, we should be ready for a ‘surprise’ reversal, which would begin to look menacing if it exceeds 2448.00 to the downside. Full Story
By: Peter Spina, President, CEO of GoldSeek.com & SilverSeek.com - 20 July, 2017
Smart people make complicated matters seem simple. Noted geologist Brent Cook of Exploration Insights does an excellent job outlining the investment life cycle of junior mining shares in a chart embedded below. Cook evaluates the economic viability of a mineral discovery, in other words the cold hard truth of ‘turning rocks into money.’ Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital - 20 July, 2017
Typically, U.S. Presidents are wary of claiming stock market performance as a referendum on their success. Most have seemed to understand that taking credit also means accepting blame, and no one would want to make the tortured argument that the positive moves reflect well on their presidency but that the negative moves do not. But Donald Trump has shown no reluctance to make any argument that suits his political purpose of the day, no matter its absurdity, and no matter if he has to contradict the arguments he made last year, or last week. Full Story
Earlier this week immediately following the release of the meeting minutes from the RBA’s policy meeting the AUD/USD moved sharply higher. So under the widely accepted theory that higher interest rates help a countries currency appreciate in value, then one may have come to the conclusion that the RBA had either raised interest rates, or at least very explicitly laid out a plan to do so in a way in which the broad consensus view amongst traders was that a rate increase was surely on the way. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 20 July, 2017
Are the Chinese getting close to announcing a new gold-backed currency? Well, if the record amount of Australian gold exports into China is an indicator, it may be close at hand. While the Chinese have been importing a lot of gold from Australia, it reached a new record high in 2017. According to the recently released data by the Australian Government June 2017 Resources and Energy Quarterly, Australia exported more gold to Hong Kong and China during the first quarter of 2017 than any other quarter in history. Full Story
In the first part of the Preparing for THE Bottom series, we emphasized the need to be sure to stay alert and focused in the precious metals market, even though it may not appear all that interesting. We argued that preparing for the big moves in gold that are likely to be seen later this year should prove extremely worth one’s while. In the second part of the series, we discussed when, approximately, one can expect the key bottom in gold to form (reminder: this winter appears a likely target) and in the third part of the series, we discussed one of the confirmations that could indicate that the final bottom is in or at hand – the gold to silver ratio. Full Story
The DXY Index, which is widely cited in the financial press as the "Dollar" or "US Dollar," has seen a correction that began in January of this year after topping at the 103.82 level, and has continued into this week's (Tues July 18) low, which came in at 94.48. This represents a move of just under 9%, which in the currency markets is not a small move. Full Story
This letter should find you buckled in for the turbulence I described last week. If not, I hope this one convinces you. The storm is seven days closer now. There are times when normality slips out of reach, and I believe we are approaching such a time. I have lived through recessions and bear markets; I know what they look like. I wish I could forget what they feel like. They don’t come out of nowhere; there are always warning signs. Many investors choose to ignore those signs; I choose not to. I hope you make the same choice. Full Story
Last week, after the dust settled from gold’s price drop, a ‘falling expanding wedge’ formed in gold’s price chart (below). All falling wedges are positive technical patterns, however for gold to confirm the pattern it will need to break above the upper resistance trend-line of the wedge. In addition, gold’s MACD (lower indicator) is showing that its direction is about to change from negative to positive, so we should continue to see gold climb this week, but some profit taking is also expected as it moves up. Full Story
In terms of informal monetary policy, the Fed has consistently engaged in verbal intervention any time stocks came in danger of breaking down. For eight years, ANY time stocks began to break through a critical level of support a Fed official appeared to issue a statement about future stimulus or maintaining its accommodative monetary policies. Full Story
While I would love to suggest that we have begun the next larger degree rally already, the market has not provided me with strong indications that is going to be the case just yet. While there are many indications that the market may have already bottomed, there are just as many indications that we may see the dreaded one more lower low before a lasting bottom may be seen. But, I believe an investor should be preparing now for an impending rally which I believe will likely take hold over the coming weeks. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 19 July, 2017
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission likely won't ever do anything about that. But I wonder if anyone has looked into whether the Comex and its operator, CME Group, might be held liable for knowingly facilitating or aiding and abetting illegal activity? Perhaps a civil lawsuit seeking damages or an injunction might prompt changes in the monetary metals futures exchange to prevent manipulation. Your thoughts? Full Story
The COMEX gold futures market and the London OTC gold market have a joint monopoly on setting the international gold price. This is because these two markets generate the largest ‘gold’ trading volumes and have the highest ‘liquidity’. However, this price setting dominance is despite either of these two markets actually trading physical gold bars. Both markets merely trade different forms of derivatives of gold bars. Full Story
While the rally can continue, smart investors book profit systematically into strength and good news. So, I’m adamant that some profit should be booked here. Gold has rallied more than $30 from the $1205 area low. If the rally accelerates, the wise investor books even more profit. If it stalls, investors should get a chance to buy again at lower prices… using some of the market’s money rather than theirs! Gold stocks are not likely to reverse their multi-decade bear cycle against bullion until US money velocity stages a new bull run, but they still outperform bullion on rallies. Full Story
Most importantly, what if anything might this mean for price? Has JPM conspired to keep prices low for years so that they could acquire metal as inexpensively as possible? Maybe. And, now that they appear to be "done", might price finally be allowed to rise? Again, maybe. Unfortunately, all we can do is speculate. The actual answers will very likely never be known as the only thing that remains constant in the world of the paper derivative pricing scheme is the deliberate opacity of the process. Full Story
ENCORE! Back by popular demand Daniel Mark Harrison returns to the show from Singapore in the Tales from The Crypto-Sphere segment. He shares an overview of his blockchain based hedge fund Monkey Capital is scheduled to go public in 21 days! Our guest answers many of the key questions about the exciting new hedge fund and the token structure of the ICO. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 18 July, 2017
Many investors pigeon-hole themselves as “inflationists” or “deflationists”, where an inflationist is someone who expects more inflation over the years ahead and a deflationist is someone who expects deflation. I am grudgingly in the inflation camp, because the overall case for more inflation is strong. Full Story
The truth is that most in the market were quite bearish back in February of 2016. As I have noted before, back on February 10, 2016, bearish sentiment, according to the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, was at one of its highest readings, hitting 48.7% (with only 24% responding as bullish), whereas it has a historical average of 30.5% bears and over 40% bulls. The February 10th measurements are considered to be relatively extreme bearish numbers. Full Story
Last week I wrote an article reviewing the longer term perspective on the Dow Jones Industrial Average and had laid out my longer term outlook on the index and what my expectations were moving forward. In that article, I had noted that I was keeping an eye on the 21,084 support level and that as long as we were able to hold that level then we should be on track to seeing that target zone in the 21,971 – 22,429 zone before seeing any kind of significant top. Full Story
Consumer prices rose slightly in June, at their slowest pace so far this year. The consumer price index (CPI), released on Friday, showed the cost of living in America rising only 1.6 percent compared to the same month last year, significantly down from the most recent high of 2.8 percent in February and below the Fed’s target of 2 percent. Much of the decline was due to energy prices, which fell 1.6 percent from May. Full Story
Chinese cross-border trade in gold refers to gold imported into, or exported from China. This gold trade can be in one of two forms of trade, General Trade or Processing Trade. At a high level, “General Trade” refers to the importation of goods by Chinese entities which is sourced from international markets, and the exportation of goods from China which are sent into international markets. Full Story
The best performing precious metal for the week was silver, climbing up 2.35 percent with the changing sentiment toward precious metals. Gold notched its first weekly gain in a number of weeks on weaker-than-expected inflation and retail sales data. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen took a decidedly dovish stance this week, signaling the Fed was in no hurry to tighten monetary policy with monthly consumer prices growth falling short of the Fed’s target 2 percent. The gold market responded positively, with gold futures jumping sharply above $1,220 after her testimony. Full Story
The credit cycle is turning for the worse. Delinquency rates are creeping up in the consumer loan and commercial/industrial loan space. This is a clear signal that both the consumer and the corporate sectors of the economy are beginning to run out of steam. Full Story
It is my privilege now to welcome in Axel Merk, President and Chief Investment Officer of Merk Investments and author of the book, Sustainable Wealth. Axel is a highly sought-after guest at financial conferences and on news outlets throughout the world, and it's great to finally have him on with us. Axel, it's a real pleasure to speak with you, and thanks for joining us today. Full Story
Stockholm Syndrome is defined as “…a condition that causes hostages to develop a psychological alliance with their captors as a survival strategy during captivity.” While observers would expect kidnapping victims to fear and loathe the gang who imprison and threaten them, the reality is that some don’t. Full Story
Chris Martenson from PeakProsperity.com, author of the must read book, Prosper! returns from Buenos Aires. He shares his grave concerns on the economies of South America. Argentineans are advised to prepare for runaway inflation. Michael Marcovici, managing director of the promising ICO, DigitalDevelopersFund (DDF) makes his show début. DDF offers directs net returns from high growth digital assets such as domain names and crypto currencies, through a unique dividend. Full Story
We’ve had to wait 18 months for an opportunity as big as the one we saw late in 2015 to appear again in the Precious Metals sector. “Wait a minute”, I hear you say, “prices were generally lower back then at that low than they are now, so how can it be as big an opportunity, as leverage is reduced?”. Here are the reasons, one technical, the other fundamental. When prices rose out of the late 2015 low, which was the Head of the Head-and-Shoulders bottom shown to advantage on the 10-year chart for GDX below, they were destined to retrace to mark out the Right Shoulder of the pattern, which is what now has most investors very negative towards the sector again. Full Story
The stock market yawned, and then moved to new highs! We know that is probably not what most people would have expected from the latest revelations of the ongoing saga of President Trump and his family. But that is exactly what happened as the Dow Jones Industrials (DJI) moved to new all-time highs. The revelation was the botched attempt by Donald Trump Jr., the son of President Donald Trump to get dirt on Hillary Clinton by meeting up with a woman described as “the Russian government attorney.” Full Story
The gold price sold off a few dollars in morning trading in the Far East on their Friday. The price began to crawl higher starting shortly before 2 p.m. CST -- and accelerated a bit in late morning trading in London. The retail sales/consumer prices data was released at 8:30 a.m. EDT in New York -- and the gold price shot higher instantly, but was brutally capped within seconds on super-high volume. The high tick of the day was printed minutes before 9 a.m. -- and was sold lower until around 11:15 a.m. EDT -- and then traded flat for the remainder of the Friday session. Full Story
While most members are focused on the precious metals, I’ve been waiting patiently for two other sectors to setup a long term buy signal which I believe happened last week. I know you are well aware of my mantra that big consolidation patterns lead to big impulse moves. What’s pretty amazing is these 2 sectors have an almost identical long term consolidation pattern and are breaking out at the same time. It stands to reason that if the Emerging Markets are going to be strong then the Basic Materials sector should benefit as well. Full Story
Speculators are running scared in the paper precious metals markets. And that’s a good thing. The past few months’ correction has finally led hedge funds and other technical/momentum traders to shed their long positions and load up on short bets. Meanwhile the Commercials, which tend to be right at big turning points, are becoming much more bullish. Full Story
The Morgan Report is all about YOU and how you can build and preserve Wealth for generations to come. We know it can sometimes seem a daunting task to protect your assets and preserve or grow your wealth. Over 15 years ago, a small group of us started The Morgan Report and formed an exclusive membership organization to promote personal freedom, an honest money system, free market wealth accumulation and asset protection. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 16 July, 2017
Well, it looks like the U.S. shale oil industry is going to chalk up another lousy year of financial losses in 2017. This shouldn’t be a surprise as the U.S. shale oil industry hasn’t made any real money since 2008. However, I still read articles suggesting that the United States will still become energy independent by ramping up its Mighty Shale Oil Machine. Full Story
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