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Weekly Archive

By: Ted Butler - 21 June, 2019

Recent developments indicate, almost beyond question, that when it comes to silver (and gold), JPMorgan is operating in direct violation of the law. So clear is the proof of this allegation that the only real question is why JPM is allowed to openly flaunt basic commodity and antitrust law? Before getting to the why, let me first establish that JPMorgan is, indeed, violating the law when it comes to silver and gold. Full Story

By: Gary Christenson - 20 June, 2019

If a country subsidizes butter, it will get more butter. Because the U.S. subsidizes banker fraud, central banking, welfare, warfare, defaulted student loans, bad policies, too-big-to-fail banks and congressional stupidity… then the U.S. will get more of these problems. We’ll pay via consumer price inflation and massive interest payments. However, gold and silver will preserve purchasing power.

There are no free lunches for most people. Someone pays. Central bankers may create currency units to buy gold at no cost, but the rest of us pay for their manipulations. Full Story

By: Hubert Moolman - 20 June, 2019

The gold market is looking a lot like it did early in the millennium, at the start of the bull market. It is setting up for a gold bull market that is likely to be way more intense than the previous one, due to the structural weaknesses incurred by the monetary system since then.

Debt levels, for example, have grown significantly since the early 2000s. US Government debts (Federal debt) as a percentage of GDP has grown from 55% in 2000 to 105% today. Full Story

By: Dave Kranzler - 19 June, 2019

The rate on a 30yr fixed mortgage has dropped over 100 basis points since November, yet housing sales have been declining. It would be interesting to know to what extent home sales would have have declined over the last few months if rates had not fallen over 1% in 7 months. Just look at the big gap down in mortgage purchase applications reported this week despite a 10yr yield that has fallen relentlessly.

It doesn’t really matter what the Fed does today with the Fed Funds rate policy decision. To be sure, if the FOMC postures toward take rates to zero if necessary it might juice the stock market temporarily. But it won’t take long for brains to take over from the algos and interpret the message that would be transmitted by the FOMC as extraordinarily bearish. Full Story

By: Frank Holmes, US Funds - 19 June, 2019

Last week was a strong one for gold, which managed to eke out its fourth straight week of positive gains. The price of the yellow metal broke above $1,350 an ounce last Friday, while gold miners, as measured by the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index, tested their 52-week high.

Investors sought safe haven investments on a number of geopolitical risks, including protests in Hong Kong over the now-delayed extradition bill and an attack on two oil tankers near Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s busiest sea lane through which a fifth of global oil consumption passes. After placing the blame on Tehran, President Donald Trump now faces a tough decision on how to respond, if at all. Full Story

By: Stefan Gleason - 19 June, 2019

Uncle Sam is going broke. That’s not exactly news – at least not to anyone who has been paying attention to the sorry state of federal finances.

Yet to most Americans, the ballooning national debt ($22.3 trillion and counting) isn’t a problem that impacts their daily lives. They won’t directly perceive the cost of another trillion dollars in borrowing in the government’s next fiscal year.

A trillion dollars here, a trillion dollars there. Full Story

By: Richard (Rick) Mills, Ahead of the herd - 19 June, 2019

When Americans elect or re-elect a president in the fall of 2020, there is a very good chance the closest thing to their hearts - their wallets - will be top of mind.

That’s because many are predicting the longest-running economic expansion in US history is about to slam on the brakes. It’s been over a decade since The Great Recession of 2007-09 plunged the world into monetary despair. That downturn was particularly bad because it combined an economic slowdown with problems in the financial system, rudely exposed by the sub-prime mortgage crisis.

In this article we are asking, what is the best indicator for predicting the next recession? What does the current data say about a recession? Full Story

By: Avi Gilburt - 19 June, 2019

I said this back in May. And, since that time, TLT has not only struck our minimum target, it hit a high of 132.58, and I still think we have higher to go. Yet, people are still debating whether the Fed will lower rates? Are we still going to debate about whether the world is flat too?

Full Story

By: Robert Lambourne - 19 June, 2019

The statement of account for May 2019 of the Bank for International Settlements, published this week, indicates that the bank is still trading gold swaps, which the bank uses to gain access to gold held by commercial banks. But the statement indicates that bank's recent activity in the gold market is much reduced from its activity during the second half of 2018. Full Story

By: Stewart Thomson, Graceland Updates - 19 June, 2019

China is an economic bullet train carrying 1.4 billion gold-focused passengers. It’s blasting through a melting block of American fiat-focused butter, and India’s citizens are poised to take everything China’s citizens are doing to even greater gold-oriented heights.

The rise of the Chindian gold-oriented economic empire and the decline of the American empire are both unstoppable processes.

There’s no question that Trump will negotiate numerous trade deals with more favourable terms for America than his presidential predecessors ever did, but the tariff taxes involved mean these deals create less global growth rather than more. Full Story

By: Dave Kranzler - 18 June, 2019

This is just the beginning of what will eventually turn out to be a period of epic money printing and systemic bailouts by Central Banks in conjunction with their sovereign lap-dogs. Only this time the scale of the operation will dwarf the monetization program that began in 2008. The price of gold more than doubled with ease the first time around. In my mind there’s no question that the $1350 official price-cap will fail. At that point its anyone’s guess how high the price will move in U.S. dollars. But the price of gold is already breaking out in several currencies other than the dollar.
Full Story

By: Avi Gilburt - 18 June, 2019

For now, I am going to keep the cash I raised in the fall of 2018 in TLT until the market proves to me it has begun its rally to my long-term target of 3800-4100SPX. While I may miss 3-4% of market upside from 2880SPX until the market proves to me it wants to take the direct path higher, TLT has already paid me more than several multiples of what my cash would miss from a simple buy-and-hold strategy. And, I intend to stay the course in TLT for now, since I still see higher potential in TLT. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. Full Story

By: Keith Weiner, Monetary Metals - 17 June, 2019

Gresham’s Law states that if two forms of money have equal monetary value set by the government, then the one that is undervalued will not circulate. It is often taken to mean that if a precious metal coin and a base metal coin are both legal tender, then the base metal will circulate and people will hoard the precious metal. That is true, but its application is broader than that.

The Coinage Act of 1792 established an official policy of bimetallism. A dollar was defined to mean 24.75 grains of pure gold, or 371.25 grains of pure silver. It fixed the ratio of gold to silver at 15 to 1.

The market ratio was closer to 15.5 (of course, it was not a fixed ratio, but moved as all market prices do). 15, being a lower number, overvalues silver slightly. That is, the monetary value of silver was a bit higher than its commodity value. And the opposite for gold.

Predictably, silver circulated and gold did not.. Full Story

By: Avi Gilburt - 17 June, 2019

In my last update, I outlined that if the GLD can provide us with a 5th wave higher, it would be a strong indication that the tide is turning in sentiment. And we got that 5thwave. At this point in time, as long as the GLD holds over 122, and then rallies strongly over 127.25, that could open the door to a major rally in gold that points us to at least the 138 region, but more preferably, up to at least the 145 region, with the path shown on the attached daily chart. And, of course, as the market rallies, we will continue to move up our supports for our stops. Remember, risk management should be a very important part of portfolio management. Otherwise, you are relying on the most destructive four letter word in the investment world: HOPE. Full Story

By: Jim Willie, CB - 16 June, 2019

A Perfect Storm is hitting the Gold market, with an internal factor (return to Quantitative Easing on steroids), an external factor (Shanghai Gold Exchange taking market share), and a systemic factor (Basel 3 Rule permitting Gold in account ratios). All three forces are positive in releasing Gold from the corrupt clutches of the Anglo-American banker organization. The Eastern Hemisphere has a planned coordinated and effective strategy to abandon the USDollar and to adopt the Gold Standard. It has happened first in the trade payment form, actually more like a global blossoming process. More progress can be inferred in its early stages. In the last ten years since the Lehman Brothers failure, all systems have undergone the same reckless treatment that the mortgage bonds endured. Slowly the realization is coming to the fore, stated by a few astute analysts. In the last decade, the US-UK bank management wing of the cabal has created the USTreasury Bond as the global subprime bond. This is the result of magnificent persistent QE abuse, hidden derivative activity to produce false bond demand, foreign dumping of USGovt debt securities, astonishing debt explosion, pilferage of foreign bond holdings, and wickedly false AAA debt rating.
Full Story

By: Chris Waltzek Ph.D., GoldSeek Radio - 16 June, 2019

- The Echo Great Recession could be more intense than the 2008 meltdown.
- Corporate bonds defaults could trigger an unstoppable financial crisis. Unlike a the last financial debacle.
- This time the fallout could be systemic leaving unwary investors with few places to hide especially institutions.
- Peter Schiff is concerned about the debt / leverage in the residential housing market as seen in the echo housing bubble.
- Given the national Case/Shiller S&P Housing index; caveat emptor notes Peter Schiff.
- His chief concern remains the systemic risk in the US dollar and related paper assets.
- The ideal panacea remains gold / silver and related shares as well as non-US investments as safe havens. Full Story

By: Doug Casey, International Man - 16 June, 2019

International Man: For many years, President Trump has made no apologies for trying to pay the least amount of taxes possible. He’s clearly stated this in many interviews.

His desire to minimize his taxes has brought scorn from many in the mainstream media, and politicians from both sides of the aisle. These people are of the opinion that paying taxes is an honorable and necessary responsibility. It brings to mind the wrongheaded saying “taxes are the price we pay for a civilized society”, which came from US Supreme Court Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes. Many people believe this.

But if that’s true, how come low tax locales like Singapore, the Cayman Islands, Monaco aren’t backward hell holes, but rather sophisticated and civilized? Full Story

By: Mike Gleason - 16 June, 2019

Steve Forbes: Well, the Fed worships this theory called the Phillips curve, which posits that there's a trade-off between inflation and unemployment, that if you have high unemployment, you will have low inflation. Or if you have low unemployment, that means you have to accept high inflation. There have been at least seven Nobel-winning economists who say that's junk. You have the current reality. We don't have very much inflation, and we have very low unemployment rates. So how do they square that circle? The answer is, they don't. They blame the weather or something.

But it just goes to show that the Fed will hold on, like any agency will, to an obsolete theory, because they aren't subject to free market forces. The Phillips curve is nonsense, but the Fed believes that prosperity causes inflation. Full Story

By: John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline - 16 June, 2019

- Dear Ray
- Financial Repression
- The Referees Suck
- Boston, New York, and ???
Full Story

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