The past few days illustrate an important event in the gold market that both beginning and accomplished investors should try to understand thoroughly. I say that because by such an understanding you will become a more educated, patient and successful gold owner. On April 19th, over $3 billion in paper gold was sold in the London over-the-counter market instantaneously dropping the gold price by $14 per ounce in a matter of minutes. Just as quickly, the cries of foul play rose among gold punditry across the internet. Just before the “hit” gold was trading in the $1286 range. It plunged to $1272. Since early this morning’s AM London Fix, gold has been recovery mode and it is now trading again in the $1286 range. Full Story
In a recent interview I conducted with the legendary market technician Robert Prechter, he offered some very interesting insights into how he views today's market, along with his perspective on socionomics. He also provides us with a general forecast as to how he sees the market playing out in the coming decade. Full Story
Well, if you are a complete optimist you could argue that between the 20% Feb/March drop prior to this becoming public knowledge, and the time since then which has included the above drops in JNUG and GDXJ, that much of this may already be largely priced in. Obviously, I don’t think so, and I believe the effects of the JNUG exodus are yet to be fully felt, but one could make the case that (a) that is overblown and JNUG will keep on trucking because traders don’t care and want their juice, and (b) the GDXJ hit is already largely behind us. So if you are of this mindset, perhaps this is the BTFD moment. Personally, this parrot is not counting on that. Time to batten down the hatches, mateys. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 21 April, 2017
Gold’s young upleg just enjoyed a major upside breakout, bolstering strong technicals and heralding a coming Golden Cross buy signal. Investors have started aggressively buying gold again after record-high stock markets distracted them. This gold upleg’s upside momentum is really building, portending accelerating gains in coming months. Yet sentiment remains poor, with traders still quite bearish on gold. Full Story
By: Richard (Rick) Mills, Ahead of the herd - 21 April, 2017
Are the tanks going to roll, the missiles fly? Is economic collapse and/or war in our near to medium term future? I’m not betting against either, one or both seem a real possibility to your author. Have we indeed reached mined peak gold production? With future mines being on average much lower grade then mines currently in production, at the very least, considering it takes up to 20 years from discovery to production, it’s not hard to believe we are have reached peak mined gold for this mining cycle. Full Story
Chris Powell outlines the documented PMs market rigging / manipulation. Key investment banks settled nearly $100 million in combined gold and silver manipulation settlements. According to GATA.org's findings, our officials have carte blanch authority to rig the markets in any way they see fit and by any means necessary. Without price transparency, free markets cannot exist. Full Story
France holds the first round of its Presidential election this weekend. The big worry for the markets is the fact that anti-Euro candidate Marin Le Pen could potentially win. Now, the polls show Le Pen as having NO chance of becoming Prime Minister. Of course, the polls also showed that BREXIT would not happen and Hillary Clinton had a 98% of becoming President. We all know how those turned out. Full Story
It happens when inflammatory events (usually political, terror or war related, but also including things like Ebola, Bird Flu and the like) crop up; stocks go down and hysteria starts to build. The mainstream media jump aboard and next thing you know you’ve got people heading for the exits… right into the next bottom. In the case of the current corrective consolidation, a disappointment in the Trump administration’s Healthcare follies rolled right into the war-like events in Syria and Afghanistan. Presto! A much needed correction of the over-bullishness was on. Full Story
America’s renewed desire to escalate military tensions is a front for America’s continual financial war, this time directed at North Korea, Syria and possibly Iran. This is likely to be the opinion of China’s strategic advisors. We analyse the geopolitics and economics behind America’s war strategy from China’s perspective, concluding that it is entering its final phase. China’s exit plan appears to be to tie the pricing of energy and then other major commodities to gold, returning to the pre-1971 status quo, when the dollar was just a settlement link between commodity prices and gold. Full Story
In the previous edition of the Market Overview, we analyzed the potential impact of the European elections on the gold market. As the Dutch elections are behind us, let’s see how the Wilders’ defeat affected the markets and the political outlook for France, where people will vote for the president on April 23. Full Story
When a resistance zone gets tested multiple times it usually breaks. It shouldn’t be long before the Nasdaq breaks through this resistance. After it does it will pull the rest of the market up with it. Full Story
On Tuesday morning, after watching 22,000 contracts in June Gold completely wipe out every bid down to $1,280.60, causing a sympathetic crash in silver down to $18.06, I was not only ready to break out the infamous Louisville Slugger, but also my wonderful dog Fido went screaming out of the house in obvious expectation of the arrival of an MJB tirade and temper tantrum. Actually, Fido was well guided in assuming a Ballangerian response to the blatant intervention of the bullion banks, which was almost a "given" after the pre-Good-Friday COT report that showed the Commercials now at the highest aggregate short position in gold for 2017 and one of the highest ever in aggregate silver shorts EVER. Full Story
The paper silver open interest on the Comex is at all-time highs. The previous all-time high was 224k contracts when the price of silver was pushing $50 in 2011. The current paper silver open interest is 229k contracts with the price of silver at $18. At least the degree of fake silver open interest in silver was more appropriate to the price level at which silver was trading in 2011. Full Story
There certainly doesn’t seem to be a shortage of outrageous behavior recently, when looking at reports of an older Asian-American doctor being dragged off a plane. But where visual images cap a sense of outrage that has crept into the flying experience, sometimes bad behavior is not always captured on phone cameras. Sometimes you have to step back and think about things by reading and considering all the facts. Full Story
Gold has no counter-party risk in a 2008-style crash. The continual devaluation of the US dollar is inevitable. Gold will eventually return to its true historic role as money. The destruction of government balance sheets, continual devaluations, and the widespread implementation of zero interest rate policies probably will result in hyper-inflation. Central banks are nearing an inflection point where they no longer can supply the gold necessary to prevent rising gold prices. Full Story
You can easily read between the lines here. Trump would like Yellen a lot more if she stopped hiking rates and maintained a “low-interest rate policy.” In the simplest terms possible… Trump wants a lower $USD and low interest rates. And he’s going to keep pushing for both until he gets them. And Gold knows it too. The precious metal has been on an absolute tear so far in 2017, crushing stocks AND bonds. Full Story
Companies continue to repurchase their capital stock, reducing share float and by proxy increasing price. The only major threat to US shares could be the failure to pass the corporate tax reform plan. If the measures fail to pass Capital hill, the event threatens to derail the US stock market advance. Full Story
It’s very late in gold’s intermediate cycle (18 weeks) and it’s now due for an intermediate degree correction. As most know, I think gold is probably stuck in a difficult basing pattern this year. The big reversal on election night drove gold sharply back below the 200 DMA and that took the fire out of the metals sector. So instead of a continuation of the baby bull we are now left with a difficult basing pattern that could take the better part of the year to play out. It’s just going to take some time to turn that downward sloping 200 week moving average back up. Full Story
There is a potential new pattern forming on some of the precious metals stock indexes which is only coming to light today. Before today’s price action there was only a guess of what may be forming with no confirmation. After today’s big gap breakout another piece of the puzzle is falling into place. Nothing is ever guaranteed when it comes to the markets, so all we can do is get the odds in our favor and try to recognize a potential pattern as soon as possible. Once you think you may have something figured out you then put together a game plan and work it until it either plays out or fails. Full Story
The global capacity for debt has reached it’s zenith. So-called developed markets and emerging markets have all reached maximum debt load. Of the all the major countries that impact the global GDP name one that’s not fully levered with debt. I’ll wait here while you look for that needle in a haystack. Full Story
As president Trump relishes telling the story, he was sitting with President Xi of China, who was enjoying a beautiful, huge slice of chocolate cake — the best chocolate cake you ever saw, which can be enjoyed only at Mar-A-Lago — when Trump decided it was time to launch 59 cruise missiles at the Assad government. Full Story
Forty years ago, Shenzhen, China, was a sleepy fishing village of 30,000. But in 1980, then-Communist Party leader Deng Xiaoping designated the southern town as one of four special economic zones (SEZs), thereby giving it special tax benefits and preferential treatment to foreign investment. In the years that followed, Shenzhen expanded at an alarming pace. Its GDP per capita grew a jaw-dropping 24,569 percent between 1978 and 2014, and by 2016 its population stood at nearly 12 million. Full Story
This time in history might be like no other – or at a minimum is on a much bigger scale. There is more access to information, analysis, and expert opinions than ever. Obviously, everyone claims to be telling ‘the truth’. A few psychopathic individuals notwithstanding, nobody sets out in the business of providing information, then says ‘But we’re going to lie like a rug, 24/7, how about them apples?’. Everyone is telling the truth. The odd thing about all this is that the stories that come out of these ‘truth telling’ outfits couldn’t be further apart from each other. That leaves the average person with a distinct problem – it is up to YOU to find the truth. To seek it, to think it, to try to live it. Full Story
With the break-out over the prior week’s high, we now have structures in gold and silver off the March lows which can be considered strongly impulsive. And, as I have noted many times in the past, if there is a reasonable bullish interpretation to be seen in the metals complex, I will certainly be adopting that as my primary perspective. Full Story
Furthermore, it appears to be the first time that these ideal economic conditions, for a rise in silver, align in such a timely manner; in particular, the bottom in interest rates, the peak in stock markets, as well as the coming collapse of the monetary system. Potentially all of these events can happen within a two to three-year period. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 19 April, 2017
The Peru Ministry of Energy and Mining just released their silver production data for February, and it was a whopper to the downside. Actually, I was quite surprised to see how much Peru’s silver production declined versus the same month last year. Also, Peru’s gold February production took a similar big hit. Full Story
The big trade of this year positions oneself for the upcoming US recession. In speculating and investing if one can get the main concept right everything else falls into place. Various trades will branch off from this theme. The trade is not priced into the market at all since we are betting against the accepted narrative. We can use various proxies to play the trade, as just about anything economically sensitive may qualify. Full Story
A 2304.25 downside target remains valid in theory, but sellers have been looking so timid lately that we’ll go instead with the minor uptrend at the rightmost edge of the chart (see inset) for Wednesday. It projects to 2353.25, a very modest target that may still be out of reach if DaBoyz don’t get help from short-covering bears. My gut feeling is that with mortgage applications data scheduled for release ahead of the opening bell, bears may not feel like doing any heavy lifting for the bad guys. Full Story
War: Not to win, never to end. Debt and currency in circulation are rising exponentially. Consumer prices will increase… and increase. Gold, silver, gasoline and food will become more expensive. Voters will continue voting for politicians and wars even though both are expensive and destructive. The political and financial elite will be fine. Tough luck for rest of us… Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 18 April, 2017
There still seems to be some doubt in many investors minds on how much gold there is in the world. I continue to receive emails from individuals who read articles stating that the amount of gold in the world is much greater than the official estimate. Recently, I have received a spike of emails questioning the amount of gold in the world due to all these supposed “SECRET GOLD STASHES.” Full Story
Is the Economy at the cusp of the next recession? or maybe worse? Part II takes a look at the macro economic backdrop for the trade of the year. Spoiler alert- its not a pretty picture, but don’t think doom and gloom, instead embrace crisis and opportunity! With our understanding of the history of oil we now focus on the macro backdrop for our Big Trade. Full Story
It was just a matter of time before the Deep State got its meat-hooks into Trump. The move to remove Steve Bannon from the National Security Council and replace him with two Deep State operatives who had been formerly removed from NSC was our signal that the Deep State had restored its control of the Oval Office. Shortly after that power swap was accomplished, missiles started flying in Syria in response to false flag “gas” attack and the world’s largest non-nuclear bomb was dropped on CIA-built underground tunnels in Afghanistan. Full Story
The yellow metal closed above $1,270 an ounce last week for the first time since soon after the November presidential election. A “golden cross” has not yet occurred, with the 50-day moving average still below the 200-day, but such a move appears likely in the next few trading sessions if upward momentum can be sustained. Full Story
Gold and silver went up the dollar went down, +$33 and +$0.53 -64mg gold and -.05g silver. The prices of the metals in dollar terms are readily available, and the price of the dollar in terms of honest money can be easily calculated. The point of this Report is to look into the market to understand the fundamentals of supply and demand. This can’t necessarily tell you what the price will do tomorrow. However, it tells you where the price should be, if physical metal were to clear based on supply and demand. Full Story
The rise of French far-right presidential candidate Marine Le Pen has made a lot of people nervous since, among many other things, she’s in favor of leaving the eurozone, which would pretty much end the common currency. But since polling has shown her making the two-person run-off round but then losing to a mainstream candidate, the euro-elites haven’t seen any reason to panic. Full Story
It should also be noted that this increase of 38,392 contracts represents the creation of 191,960,000 ounces of virtual/digital silver. Again, The Shills and Apologists will claim that "this is simply producer hedging" or that all is fine because "there's a levered long for every levered short". But how is any of this relatable to the physical price of silver when derivatives representing 20% of total annual mine supply can simply be conjured up from thin air and supplied to money managers and traders as "exposure". Trading in these derivative contracts are no more related to physical silver than is trading of sunflower seeds or baseball cards. Full Story
The best performing precious metal for the holiday-shortened week was silver, up 3.01 percent, followed by gold, up 2.66 percent as geopolitical risks surrounding Syria and North Korea sparked demand for haven assets. Gold settled above its 200-day average for the first time since November, reports Bloomberg. Full Story
The head of SchiffGold, Euro Pacific Capital, and Euro Pacific Gold Fund (EPGFX), thinks the US Fed is preparing for the largest bailout in history. QE4 could send gold to $5,000+. A new US Housing bubble has arrived, a.k.a. the echo bubble, due to institutional speculation. Bill Murphy of GATA.org returns with upbeat commentary on the PMs sector. With silver higher by approx. 15% and gold over 10% already this year, the silver market appears to be winding up for an explosive move. Full Story
Margin debt hits fresh new highs, but according to status quo puppets, nothing to worry about because its different this time. (i.e. just like 1929 – in the words of Irving Fisher, “a permanently high plateau” [of prosperity].) And in a sense such talk is correct, because the markets have never been more rigged, however even with this, the bureaucracy’s price managers will fail at some point (stocks usually peak a few months after a margin debt peak), as all faulty and unfair systems self-destruct from within eventually. Full Story
Many people are unaware of the fragility of the supply chains that truck in food, fuel and all the other commodities of industrialized comfort to cities. As a general rule, there are only a few days of food and fuel in a typical city, and any disruption quickly empties existing stocks. (Those interested in learning more might start with the book When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation.) Full Story
This past week has seen a lot of whipsaw. But, from an Elliottician's perspective, it was to be expected, as the market has been tracing out a b-wave within a corrective 4th wave structure. This is the most variable segment within Elliott's 5 wave structure, and typically acts just as we have seen over the last few weeks. Full Story
The economy is now in VERY serious trouble. The Fed’s own GDP models now show 1Q17 growth tracking at just 0.5%. This is DOWN from an original forecast of 3.2% in February. Put another way, the economy has begun contracting at a RAPID pace. Moreover, we are getting numerous signals that the US consumer, the single largest driver of the economy, is not spending. Full Story
Trump has dispatched war ships, including the USS Carl Vinson, to North Korea as North Korea continues to show signs that it is preparing to do another nuclear test on Saturday (known as ‘Day of the Sun,’ which celebrates the birth of the present dictator’s grandfather, who was North Korea’s founding president). Voice of America has reported that North Korea “has apparently placed a nuclear device in a tunnel, and it could be detonated Saturday AM Korea time.” Full Story
This is part I of a 3-part series introducing Plunger’s “Trade of the Year”. This section gives a review of the oil price from 1946 to present explaining the essential forces which powered its price through various bull and bear markets. It explains how we ended up where we are today in the oil market. Part II will explore the macro forces driving today’s economy which lays the groundwork for introducing my trade of the year in part III. Full Story
Audible.com just released a new show on Bernie Madoff (Ponzi Supernova, available for free to subscribers) that explains how the world’s biggest financial scam was enabled by banks and hedge funds who were making so much money that they chose to ignore obvious red flags. Which sounds a lot like today’s China, Inc. Here, for instance, is a sequence of events involving China Huishan Dairy Holdings, an apparently too-big-to-fail chain of dairy farms: Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 17 April, 2017
Americans who believe technology will be the cure for all our problems, don’t count on wind and solar energy to save the day. This is the delusion I see over and over again in the Mainstream and alternative media. I even receive emails from followers who tell me not to worry, because the cost of producing solar will continue to fall. Soon I gather, we will be on our way to driving or flying millions of electric cars, just like in the old cartoon, the Jetsons. Full Story
June Gold ended the week consolidating for a likely push to a minor rally target at 1303.00. An equally compelling pattern of somewhat larger degree targets 1305.70, so you should be prepared for stall at one number or the other. As always, if a Hidden Pivot as clear as either of these two gives way easily, that would imply there’s unspent buying power to reach still higher levels. Keep in mind as well that the 1464.90 target of a far larger pattern dating back to November 2015 will continue to color our trading bias a bullish shade of green. Full Story
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