By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 20 March, 2008
-Getting lost in "the Great Unwind"…Hell Week looks more like Purgatory… -Making way for a 'no' kind of day…what will happen when the armies collide? -A Japan-style funk may still be in the cards…the Springer-like drama that is New York politics…and more! Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital, Inc. - 20 March, 2008
It is a testament to how low the bar has been set that the Fed can slash rates in the face of a collapsing dollar and soaring commodity prices and still be viewed as hawkish on inflation. Is it just me, or is Ben Bernanke morphing into the Mad Hatter? Full Story
As the author of three books on mortgage finance and related derivative securities, and speaking as someone who first turned mortgages into rated securities in 1983, I'm going to let you in on an unfortunate little secret – the real subprime mortgage securitization crisis may not have even started yet. But, there is a good chance the real crisis will arrive soon. Full Story
The smackdown of gold under $950 and of silver under $19 only managed to remove and cleanse these two important metals markets of their overbought situation. The Boyz have cleared the path for gold to reach $1100 and for silver to reach $26. Nothing has been solved yet on most critical battle fronts. The bigger moves up are yet to come! Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 20 March, 2008
The crux of the dilemma now facing the Illuminati and their precious central banking and gold suppression cartels is that while there are loads of financial institutions that are too big to fail, the worldwide financial system, which includes those institutions, has become too big to bail. Keep a sharp eye on which of the many potentially troubled institutions get bailed out by the Fed. Full Story
Wait for the dust to settle and be patient in the short term. This could be the start of a decent correction. Gold could reach $830-850. But there are also plenty of money managers and investors that missed the gold move the last few years and have been waiting for a correction to jump in. Therefore the extent of the correction could be shortened by these investors. Full Story
By: Jason Hommel, Silver Stock Report - 20 March, 2008
I've heard that 4 major coin shops on the West Coast of North America were out of 100 oz. bars yesterday; Amark, the largest distributor for Johnson Matthey in the nation, and Tulving, and two dealers in Vancouver. If you include NWT Mint's delivery delays, that's 5. Anoter man emails to tells me that a coin shop in Surrecy, BC is sold out of 1 oz. Silver Coins, and that their phones are ringing off the wall for orders and they can't fill orders for lack of silver. Full Story
Gold and other commodities plunged below key short-term support levels following Tuesdays US Interest rate cut to 2.25%. The consensus seems to see this as a healthy correction or is this a signal for a potential end of the commodities bull market? Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The MOGAMBO GURU - 20 March, 2008
I am happy to report that Mr. Williams kindly does respond to requests from subscribers, and is now introducing the SGS-Alternate Unemployment Rate, which sounds like a bunch of government gobbledy-gook, which it actually is… Full Story
Although we wrote up Tuesday’s ballistic rally as little more than a meaningless gusher of mass hysteria, most of it short-covering, we were still surprised at how quickly it receded back into near-nothingness. Full Story
The men now pulling the Fed's monetary levers sure agree. And while Ben Bernanke might see the shadow of depression where the rest of us glimpse a shade of recession, liquidating the mal-investments of 2002-2007 is certainly hurting. Full Story
By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 19 March, 2008
-You could go long…or short…or just go fishing…sometimes doing nothing is the best move… -A shrewd move from the Fed?…a lot of money is disappearing into thin air… -Gold at $2,138…financial horror stories…and more! Full Story
A weakening in the price for iron ore and a nascent bear market in the big iron stocks serve as an early warning system that a recession/depression is looming. The purpose of this article is therefore to assess the condition of the world’s “big 3” iron ore stocks from which we should be able to divine the outlook for global commodity markets as a whole, and more than that, the outlook for the global economy. Full Story
By: Dr. Ron Paul, U.S. Congressman - 19 March, 2008
HR 5512 is a sad commentary on how far we have fallen, not just since the days of the Founders, but only in the last 75 to 100 years. We could not maintain the gold standard nor the silver standard. We could not maintain the copper standard, and now we cannot even maintain the zinc standard. Paper money inevitably breeds inflation and destroys the value of the currency. That is the reason that this proposal is before us today. Full Story
We are in the early stages of a great unraveling. The visible breakdown today is residential real estate. The other breakdown is in the financial sector, which used short-term money to fund subprime mortgages. The unraveling has spread to Alt-A mortgages, the next tier up. Full Story
By: Roland Watson, The Silver Analyst - 19 March, 2008
Since the August lows when silver hit just over $11 an ounce, we have seen silver surge to $21 for a rough gain of 75%. That is a very good return over 7 months or 92% if annualized. But silver investors had high hopes for another asset class when this bull run began and that was silver mining stocks. Full Story
Many a frustrated junior resource investor is asking when will the pain end? It is one thing to be entirely wrong on the market, it dents the ego and you get over it. It is quite another to be right and still not make any money! That’s been the case for most junior resource stock investors. Full Story
As most longtime readers know, my prime objective has been to end the silver price manipulation. It still is. Secondarily, I have consistently advocated the ownership of physical silver on a long-term basis by individual investors, AKA, "the little guys." Today, I’d like to direct this silver message to large investors, both extremely wealthy individuals and institutional investors, since these were primarily the types of investors that Bear Sterns serviced and advised. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The MOGAMBO GURU - 19 March, 2008
I note with alarm that with the index at 1293, everybody who bought the stocks of this index since the third quarter of 2006 has lost money! Hahaha! Nice investing, dudes! Full Story
The second epic short-squeeze in a little more than a week has sent bears a clear message: If you want to get rich betting on the sure thing, you had better be prepared to die trying. The Dow Industrials popped for a 420-point gain yesterday, driven as always by hysterical short-covering. Full Story
By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 18 March, 2008
-A hellish week thus far…entering a scarier, uglier phase of the cycle… -Wall Street waits for the next domino to fall…inflation and deflation: working together? -Is it time to do a little contrarian buying?…a well-thought out comment from a dear reader…and more! Full Story
Last Friday we got a taste of what the future is likely to be like as we make our way further into the belly of the second great depression. The Fed rushed to bail out a venerable Wall Street institution, which was rumored to be insolvent. Sunday evening, that rumor was confirmed to be true, as Bear Stearns agreed to sell itself to JP Morgan for a paltry $2 per share. Two dollars! Full Story
By: Steven Saville, Speculative Investor - 18 March, 2008
"Inflationary recession" is, we think, a better term than "stagflation". In a world where money can be created in unlimited amounts and counter-cyclical monetary/fiscal policies are enormously popular, most recessions will be inflationary. Full Story
I really feel that it is about time that Wall Street and the Federal Reserve pack up finance and go and get a real job, in the real economy. They are clueless as regards finance, and have actually been the driving force in the destruction of Americas real economy, and therefore YOUR REAL JOBS. Full Story
By: David Galland and Casey Research - 18 March, 2008
The word "inflation" covers two different concepts, and it's important to keep them separate. One concept is monetary inflation, which is when the supply of money increases faster than the supply of goods and services. The other concept is price inflation, which is an increase in the overall level of prices for goods and services. Full Story
As confidence in US financial institutions and its balance sheets DISSAPEARS so have the investors in them. Liquidity from the private sector has stopped dead in its tracks. As I have outlined in the past, there is no lack of liquidity, only a lack of confidence to deploy as questions of Solvency are now of primary importance. Full Story
It looks like 10 years ago when LTCM was in trouble. Last Friday (3/14/2008), JP Morgan and the Fed decided to step in and rescue Bear Stearns. This is worse than LTCM because in order to provide backup to JP Morgan, the Fed had to use a depression-era provision to provide loans which they have not used since the great depression in the 1930s, until now. So you know how more serious and important this crisis and bailout are compared to LTCM 10 years ago or the S&L crisis 20 years ago. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The MOGAMBO GURU - 18 March, 2008
And what percent of each class felt like they were so far in debt that 'they will never be able to get out'? Oops! Low income: 25 percent. Middle income: 14 percent. Upper income: 10 percent! Full Story
It would have taken some imagination to foresee that just about every asset class save stocks would get hit yesterday. Although the Dow Industrials, for one, began the day 200 points in the hole, the blue chip average went no lower intraday, and it ultimately settled 21 points above Friday’s close. Full Story
By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 17 March, 2008
-The Ides of March left its victim: the bloody corpse of Bear Stearns…the 'Margin Call from Hell'… -The kindness of strangers in the East is waning…the melting U.S. dollar… -Here's another thing to worry about: the financing gap…politicians just can't get away with anything anymore…and more! Full Story
Comment's from the video's author [Don Harrold]: I ask again, "When will CNBC do the right thing and get rid of Jim Cramer?" Jim's advice on Bear Stearns (NYSE:BSC) is most horrific since, well, since the dot-com disasters he shuffled folks into. Look, it's just getting too easy to point this stuff out. But, hold on, my video here is 10 minutes of other stuff too. Jim's just a symptom of a larger problem. Our founding fathers would be ashamed of how we've handed our economy to the Federal Reserve. Full Story
By: Peter Zihlmann, Zihlmann Investment Management AG - 17 March, 2008
While the past is not always a reliable guide as to what the future may bring, it can give us a prescience of what may lie ahead. The chart below reveals one thing for sure: the US-Dollar has lost more than 50% against a basket of foreign currencies over twenty years, but not in an uninterrupted line of course. Full Story
You don’t need me to tell you, but the $1,000 mark is the latest to fall beneath gold’s mighty rise. Even so, as a benchmark, the number $1,000 is meaningless. It represents no new high in the inflation-adjusted prices that count. And it is not attached to a magic switch that assures, once flipped, the price must subsequently march to the $1,200 forecasted for this year by our own Bud Conrad. Full Story
Many are now categorizing current macro economic conditions as being an instance of stagflation. And while current circumstances definitely appear to be so, in my opinion one needs to go past the definition of stagflation to capture the essence of macro conditions at present, because this is not your father’s economy. Full Story
In view of the fact that ETF’s are here to stay, it is my contention that ETF’s can be very useful, especially for active traders. In the case of precious metals ETF’s, my advice to those of you who trade them, is to take profits every now and then, and turn those profits into physical metal. Full Story
Remember the moment. This is the moment our kids' future - at least as commonly envisioned - went down the drain. Make no mistake, that future was already swirling around in a whirlpool headed for the pipes, but at this moment all pretense of sound macro policy management is falling away and the worst part is, it is all the result of a macroeconomic game that rewarded short term players and punished those who 'bought in' in any sincere way. Full Story
The ongoing deleveraging of the $500 trillion derivatives markets claimed its biggest scalp on Sunday - Bear Stearns, formerly one of the worlds top investment banks and now taken over by JP Morgan to prevent a global financial panic, with the aid of funding and guarantees from the US Fed amounting to $30 billion which was reminiscent of the UK Governments bailout of Northern Rock Bank. Full Story
The bail out of Bear Sterns has validated all the worst fears and forecasts expressed in these newsletters over the past few years. The Fed has once again verified that it will create whatever new liquidity is required to prevent any particular crisis from developing into a deflationary debt implosion. Full Story
My suggestion is that you do not pay much attention to upward moves in response to new programs offered by the Federal Reserve System. If it could do anything other than inflate the money supply, it would not be coming up with late-night emergency bailouts to be announced just before the opening bell of the New York Stock Exchange. Full Story
The failure of Windows Vista to improve upon Microsoft’s accepted standard is an indication that an era is ending. Another indication—just as obvious and far more significant—US central bank credit is no longer automatically able to create economic expansion. Suddenly, cheap credit does not produce growth. An era is over. Full Story
By: Jason Hommel, Silver Stock Report - 17 March, 2008
This is why you need silver and gold. They cannot go bankrupt. They cannot go to zero value. Their value does not depend on another's promise to pay. Silver and gold are not promises, they are payment in full. Full Story
By: Larry LaBorde, Silver Trading Company - 17 March, 2008
People are always asking me, “When should I sell my silver?” Well that question is much easier to ask than to answer. I often times tell them whenever the government starts acting responsibly and not only balances the budget but finally decides that it has grown too fat and announces they are going on a fiscal diet. Full Story
By: Boris Sobolev, Resource Stock Guide - 17 March, 2008
There was a lot of volatility in the markets last week as the Fed tried to prevent the financial sector from spinning out of control. The markets rebounded strongly in the beginning of the week only to be beaten down by the Bear Stearns news. Overall, the process of retesting the January lows continued. Full Story
John Maynard Keynes argued that the stock market was moved by fear and greed. That is, he said that traders are irrational and that they swing back and forth between emotional extremes – “animal spirits” he called them. Full Story
WOW! $1000 per oz. Where to from here? I still remember when the DOW first breached its 1000 mark. It was 10 years before it went anywhere after that. I don’t see the same for gold, but who knows? Full Story
By: Dr. Ron Paul, U.S. Congressman - 16 March, 2008
Economic law dictates reform at some point. But should we wait until the dollar is 1/1,000 of an ounce of gold or 1/2,000 of an ounce of gold? The longer we wait, the more people suffer and the more difficult reforms become. Runaway inflation inevitably leads to political chaos, something numerous countries have suffered throughout the 20th century. The worst example of course was the German inflation of the 1920s that led to the rise of Hitler. Even the communist takeover of China was associated with runaway inflation brought on by Chinese Nationalists. The time for action is now, and it is up to the American people and the U.S. Congress to demand it. Full Story
1st Hour: Headline news & market forecast. Spotlight Picks with big dividends. The International Forecaster and Chris Waltzek answer listener questions. 2nd Hour: - Gold & Silver Exchange: Kal Gronvall Full Story
By: Bill Murphy, Le Metropole Cafe - 16 March, 2008
A central theme to this commentary is that America has become the United States of Russia when it comes to management of US financial markets, the controlled financial market press (no such thing as an objective, free market press in this country), and the management of government statistics engineered to foster the notion that "Everything is fine," no matter what the reality is festering beneath the surface. Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 16 March, 2008
As spot gold went screaming past 1000 on Friday, to close in the aftermarket at an all-time closing high of 1002.50, the yen went ripping through 100, to as low as 99.2560 as of 3 pm EDT just as the COMEX closed, which is a 12-year high against the dollar. If you wanted proof in spades that the yen is being used to hit precious metals by causing the carry trade to unwind and create a giant margin-call inducing liquidity drain, here it is "in yo' face!" Full Story
By: Jason Hommel, Silver Stock Report - 16 March, 2008
There is a 40-year supply of oil in the ground. There is a 14-year supply of silver in the ground. Therefore, silver is the better investment. If "peak oil" is true, then every peak oil nutcase out there ought to be several times more worried about "peak silver", since silver reserves will run out sooner. Full Story
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors - 16 March, 2008
My position is that the recession will be rather long and relatively shallow, and the inevitable recovery will be longer and more drawn out than is typical, resulting in what I call The Muddle Through Economy for a period of several years. I define a Muddle Through Economy as one which grows below normal trend GDP growth of 3% for a period of time, typically in the 2% range. Full Story
Stocks had a volatile week and acted like a puppy on a choke chain, first pulled one way and then another. The lows are being tested. The Japanese Yen keeps going up, and as the chart shows, when it goes up the stock market goes down. Full Story
When I study all the different elements at play across the board, I believe we are witnessing a currency under siege. Until and unless either the U.S. economic fundamentals improve or the Feds stop their unabated assault on the dollar, upward price action leading to any kind of sustained rally will probably be blocked. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The MOGAMBO GURU - 16 March, 2008
Losses on this kind of scale are the worst kind of bad news for tax revenues and those governments and recipients who depend on tax revenues, which rhymes so well that I am going to turn it into a Mogambo Hit Song (MHS)… Full Story
Would you have preferred to go home long at the close on Friday, or short? That’s a question we frequently ask in the Rick’s Picks chat room toward the end of the trading day – a little game we play to position ourselves for the next day, in true contrarian fashion, against whatever strategy feels most comfortable. Full Story
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