By: Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital - 21 February, 2014
Two pieces of business news announced this week provide a convenient frame through which to view our dysfunctional and distorted economy. The first (which has attracted tremendous attention), is Facebook's blockbuster $19 billion acquisition of instant messaging provider WhatsApp. The second (which few have noticed) is the horrific earnings report issued by Texas-based retail chain Conn's. While these two developments don't seem to have much in common, together they shed some very unflattering light on where we stand economically. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 21 February, 2014
Gold stocks have been on fire this year, blasting higher to 2014’s pole position of best-performing sector. And this powerful rally’s internals are looking as good as its headline gains. The recent months’ gold-stock buying has been on big volume, with large capital inflows. This is very bullish behavior revealing a sea change in sentiment and strong conviction among returning gold-stock investors and speculators. Full Story
Gold has so far enjoyed a terrific start to the New Year, most recently closing at its highest level late October 2013. It has even succeeded in closing above its psychologically significant 200-day moving average for the first time in over a year. In summary, gold futures have risen over 12% through Feb. 18, reversing its biggest annual drop in over three decades. It also hit a three-month high on Tuesday. Holdings in ETFs backed by bullion increased by 3.2 metric tons last week – the greatest amount since December 2012 – after slumping 869.1 tons in 2013, when prices were down 28%. Full Story
Do you own any Bonds? Does your Retirement Account hold any Bonds? Better check. And in particular check the Yield. If the Yield is 3% or 4% or even 5%, consider whether the Real Rate of Inflation is actually eroding the Value (Purchasing Power) of that Yield to a Negative Number (i.e., to a Negative Real Interest Rate). Full Story
By: Alasdair Macleod, Head of Research, GoldMoney - 21 February, 2014
When US money supply measured by M2 stood at $11 trillion in December 2013, I calculate that total broad money of the next largest 50 countries ranked by GDP amounted to the equivalent of a further US$67 trillion at current exchange rates. And that's only on-balance sheet: we must add in global shadow banking, estimated by the Financial Stability Board to have been an extra $67 trillion in 2011, probably about $75 trillion today, given its recent rapid growth in China. So when we look at US broad money supply, we should be aware there is a further mountain of money thirteen times as big ultimately based on the dollar. Full Story
Major bottoms in any market or sector usually produce big rebounds and big gains for those who are correctly positioned. For some, the initial strong gains create trepidation that the market will experience a big correction or revert back to the previous bear market (which created the foundation for the big rebound). I’ve noticed this trepidation over the past few days from subscribers and other advisors preaching caution or hedging their recent gains. This is all well and fine but the evidence as well as history suggest not to worry because the gains will continue unabated over the intermediate term. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 21 February, 2014
Germany's Bundesbank has posted an English translation of an interview published Wednesday by the German business newspaper Handelsblatt with Bundesbank Executive Board member Carl-Ludwig Thiele, an interview that unfortunately concentrates on the logistics of repatriating some of Germany's gold from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York rather than on what might have been done with that gold: Full Story
The Chinese financial system, along with the rest of the emerging market, exist as an extension of "the world is flat monetary policy" on a scale never seen before. It is equally a giant leverage play on the last remaining resources for a population that has overproduced its stay. The financial blog Zerohedge.com recently presented a summary of a BBC program featuring a report from Robert Peston, who traveled to China to investigate how the mighty economic giant could actually be in serious trouble. Full Story
It’s another “where do we start?” morning; and thus, before unveiling the chart guaranteeing the upcoming, permanent end of “tapering,” we feel obligated to update you on the various, seemingly endless “horrible headlines” spanning the globe – each of which, in their own rite, should have you not walking, but running to your phones to protect yourself with real money. Full Story
Last week I discussed long-term cycles for gold so I thought I would follow this up with some notes on long-term cycles for silver. One would presume that silver’s cycles are the same as gold and they would be wrong. Given their similarities as precious metals, their cycles do overlap so that it appears that their cycles are the same. But gold and silver march to their own beat. Full Story
When you first set off to buy silver and gold products, there are many factors which will likely influence your decision making. A product's price is most certainly one of the most important decision making factors. Gold and silver dealers know this, and therefore most dealers build their business models and advertising campaigns around low price offers. Full Story
Gold coins are all the rage these days. Bullion bars had their day, but investors quickly discovered that those bars were a little difficult to unload in a jam. First of all, bars that are completely sealed must usually be reassayed for purity when they're sold. Some dealers will even require assaying if the bar is vacuum sealed just to make sure that the metal wasn't cut with inferior metals prior to being sold. Coins tend not to have this problem because of the way they're made. But, before you rush out to stock up, make sure you follow these basic tips for buying. Full Story
As will be demonstrated herein, using both historical and present-day events, key aspects of current deflationary theory can be characterized as the combination of 1) an absurdity; 2) a misunderstanding; and 3) an oversimplification; all working together to create 4) a serious danger for investors. Few questions are of greater concern for investors than: "will it be inflation or deflation that will dominate the coming years?" Full Story
According to the latest study by the Financial Stability Board (FSB) the unregulated $72 Trillion Global Shadow Banking System is now larger than the global regulated banking system. How could an unregulated and opaque industry, which is larger than the entire world’s GDP operate with such little attention? Even the FSB is not a government entity and operates under the auspices of an entity with a highly checkered and mysterious background - The Bank of International Settlements in Basel Switzerland. Full Story
In his quest for new vehicles to combat risk while still gaining yield, Dennis and his team have turned their eye to Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) to see identify the potential for seniors and savers. MLPs and how they work can be somewhat complex, but they can have a place in the portfolios of investors looking for a healthy and steady income without exposing their nest eggs to unwelcome risks. Read on to learn more about MLPs and their place in seniors’ and savers’ portfolios. MLPs)… Full Story
Significant nominal peaks in the price of silver tend to come after significant nominal peaks in the Dow. This has been the case for the last 90 years at least. It is no coincidence that significant silver rallies follow after significant Dow rallies end. It is simply a natural reaction to what caused the stock market rally as well as the effects of that rally. So, if it happened before, it will certainly occur again. Full Story
Gold lovers’ hearts beat faster last week, as the metal rose above $1,300 an ounce for the first time since November. The precious metal also climbed above its 200-day moving average, which hasn’t happened in about a year. ISI’s John Mendelson noted that the generic gold future “rallied off its mid-December low and has decisively broken out above its downtrend line connecting the descending tops from late August, a near-term positive.” The next price he’s targeting is $1,350, the price gold was at in late October. Full Story
The rabbit hole was detected long ago, leading to multiple examples of Jackass epiphany. Many clients and inquisitive followers have asked how and when the conspiracy and deep plots were recognized. A sequence occurred to produce the newfound awareness, in certain key events that reeked of suspicion, sabotage, and bad economics. The awareness began around 1990, confirmed in 2000 & 2001 with the stock bust and 911 crime scene, solidified with Lehman in 2008. The steady policy decisions were so destructive, ordered by intelligent men, that they had to be intentional. The hints were many. Full Story
The “problem” with gold’s rally is that it is very unlikely to continue unless the USD Index gives in and declines below the medium-term line. We already saw a move very close to it yesterday and in today’s pre-market action. The USD is after a long-term breakout, and at medium-term support, which is a powerful bullish combination for the coming weeks. Full Story
If gold is entering a new bull market then it’s a great time to get in. Technical evidence is mounting, big volume is coming into gold mining ETFs and they are leading the market. Take a look at the monthly volume on the Junior Gold Miners ETF GDXJ. After a huge volume increase in January, the buying pressure hasn’t subsided as February is set to smash the record volume set just last month. GDXJ is also pressing up against downtrend resistance and the monthly MACD is turning higher, setting up a potential breakout. Full Story
Payback time? Fallback plan? Money in the bank? What would you ask the CEO of a company you were considering investing in? In advance of the Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada convention in March, newsletter writers Keith Schaefer, Eric Coffin and Lawrence Roulston are bringing energy and mining companies together for a "meet the management" Subscriber Investment Summit in Toronto. In this interview with The Mining Report, the experts share their sometimes surprising responses to the state of the industry. Full Story
On a weekly basis, our investment team shares the most important events in gold, resources, and emerging markets. The results are categorized in terms of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats. We believe this SWOT model helps investors make informed decisions about their stock and bond investments. Full Story
When attempting to quantify the amount and quality of a possible mineralized deposit on their property, exploration companies and producers generally follow a process which seeks to state, in reasonably accurate and concise terms, just what they have…or might have. Following the Bre-X fiasco, wherein ‘highly inaccurate’ reserves of a supposed deposit in Borneo were publicized and acted upon by a tidal wave of investors, sophisticated and neophyte alike, a new set of reporting rules was enacted. Full Story
In the big picture, gold and silver are increasing in price, along with the prices for crude oil, an average house, gasoline, food, and almost everything we need.Both gold and silver have accelerated their average price increases since 2001, the end of their 20 year bear market. Official national debt was $2.92 Billion in 1913 and nearly $17,000 Billion in 2013.The compounded annual increase since 1913 has been 9.04% while the increase since 1971 has been 9.31%.National debt increases, on average, quite consistently.Given that consistent exponential increase in national debt, are you surprised that the prices for gold, silver, crude, gasoline, food and housing have also substantially increased, on average, every year? Full Story
For the past few years, the citizens of China and India have been in the “gold buying spotlight”. I’ve hinted that the citizens of Japan could soon become another source of sizable demand. In contrast to their “debt-a-holic” government, Japanese citizens tend to shun the use of debt. Over the past year, the actions of Shinzo Abe and Haruhiko Kuroda have resulted in a tumbling yen, and the official inflation rate has started to rise. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 18 February, 2014
Our original intention was to explain where we agreed and disagreed with the article by Cullen Roche at "Pragmatic Capitalism" (is there any other kind of capitalism?) titled "The Biggest Myths in Economics". Instead, while we are still going to refer extensively to the Roche article we will do so within the context of our own list of economics myths. We would have preferred to have kept our list to ten items, but it was a challenge just to restrict it to twelve. Unfortunately, our list is by no means comprehensive. Full Story
It’s murky times for income investors, or retirees struggling to live off of their nest eggs. The inability to place money in CDs has left many feeling lost. When “father always said…” advice no longer applies, and the old ways to grow robust portfolios no longer work, many are confused and downright scared about what to do to protect themselves and live or save for a retirement on their own terms. It’s not hopeless, but first it’s important to understand the lay of the land as it is today. Read on to learn more… Full Story
The New Year naysayers who predicted a fall in the gold price to nearer $1,000 an ounce than its present $1,323 quite convincingly argued that an economic recovery and higher equity prices this year will be bad for the gold price. But if that is true why has the gold price advanced again over the past two weeks while stocks have been rallying? Only today the main MSCI global stock index showed that all the losses on equities since the New Year have been recouped. Full Story
It’s the tale of two assets: gold, which was largely shunned by investors for most of last year, has made an impressive comeback in recent weeks. Meanwhile Bitcoin, the white-hot “investment” of 2013, has lost value in recent weeks and threatens to violate an important long-term trend line. Gold made its return to the headlines after exceeding the psychological $1,300 level for the first time since November. Trading volumes have hit their highest level since May as U.S. investors gradually awaken to the attractiveness of gold in the near term. Full Story
Six years ago the well-known investment bank Bear Stearns imploded. In February 2008, Bear Stearns stock traded as high as $93; by mid-March the insolvent company agreed to be taken over by JPMorgan for $2 a share (later raised to $10 after class-action lawsuits). In the annals of Wall Street, there was hardly a more sudden demise than the fall of Bear Stearns. The cause was said to be a run on the bank as nervous investors pulled assets from the firm. Bear Stearns was said to be levered by 35 times, meaning it had equity of $11 billion and total assets of $395 billion. This is a very small cushion if something negative suddenly appears. Full Story
The US just released US Retail Sales details warn of an alarming problem. 2008 may have been a crisis brought on by US Residential Real Estate, but 2014-2015 is likely to see the next wave triggered by US Retail Commercial Real Estate. The Fed, Banks, Insurance companies, REITS and most importantly, the Shadow Banking sector are well aware of the exposure and are preparing accordingly. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 17 February, 2014
MineWeb's Lawrence Williams today notes the attack by CPM Group's Jeffrey Christian on Sprott Asset Management's John Embry, made Friday on Business News Network in Canada in response to Embry's expression of suspicion on BNN that impairment of the German Bundesbank's gold at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is behind the slow pace of the Bundesbank's gold repatriation. Full Story
By: The Gold Report and Mike Kachanovsky - 17 February, 2014
You scan the menu and notice that the prime rib and the hamburger are the same price. What do you order? The precious metals market isn't so different, according to "Mexico Mike" Kachanovsky, consultant to hedge funds and mining companies and contributor to SmartInvestment.ca. The market has pulverized the price of top-notch mining stocks to the same level as the struggling names. So, which would you buy? In this interview with The Gold Report, Kachanovsky reveals how to find the prime rib of the gold market. Full Story
This is the third time since 2011 this topic has made these pages, the reason being it’s a very important understanding for everyone to absorb, and it needs to be repeated to help counter the continuous misinformation and distraction in mainstream media. Based on little reported, but important signs (growing numbers at levels that could actually affect fundamental organizational / political change), it’s becoming increasingly apparent the message is getting through, because people know when they are getting screwed. And this is especially true when the ‘screwees’ figure out the ‘screwers’ are going to kill them in the process. Full Story
Silver or the silver price is generally much more difficult to analyze than gold. Part of the reason is that so much less is known about the specifics of the silver market. Silver analysis is often done “through” the analysis of gold. This is not completely wrong, since silver and gold mostly moves in a similar manner – they have the same monetary properties after all. Full Story
In this Weekend Report I would like to show you the Chatology of silver that you won’t see anywhere else on the planet. Some of these charts might not conform to the classic textbook scenarios most chartists believe are the only correct ways to construct a chart pattern. I have learned through many years of charting the markets that there are areas in this field that can be opened up for further interpretation and still fall within the loose confines of what is considered a chart pattern. Keeping an open mind in any of the trading disciplines of the markets from Elliot Wave, to cycles or charting can give one more insight and clarity than any one book can give you. Real time analysis and interpretation is the only way to really get to know your chosen field for investing in the markets. Full Story
At the end of December the price of gold bottomed and has moved up smartly while leaving silver behind, to wallow in a sideways pattern before making it’s low at the end of January. This odd behavior caused many investment writers to hedge their recommendations while waiting for a confirmatory breakout, while InvestorKey had been invested in the precious metals since the earlier part of January and now have profits of 20+% waiting to be booked. This common idea of waiting for confirmation by breakout is something that has always bothered me over my 33 years of trading, when reading other analysts recommendations Full Story
The dollar dropped a lot more this week than it has in any one week for a long time. Measured conventionally, the gold price spiked $51, and the silver price by $1.47. Gold owners have 4% more dollars, and silver owners have 7.4% more dollars. However, those dollars are worth less. How much less? Full Story
Bill Murphy from GATA.org thinks gold is selling at fire sale prices, its true value is nearly twice as high: $2,500 an ounce. He's wildly bullish on the precious metals mining-sector, and expects many precious metals stocks to soar by 20 fold within three years, culminating with a market mania that rivals even the Internet Bubble. Wall Street Wizard, Peter Grandich says that demand for gold bullion from China is just one of many bullish factors impacting the market. Full Story
Bankers can and will steal your cash, but there is no way they can take your personally owned and personally held gold and silver. The ongoing plan for 2014 is to buy and hold even more gold and silver and reduce your exposure to cash held in any bank. Just keep enough to cover week by week expenses, and keep the rest of your cash at home, under the mattress, in a safe, buried in the backyard, anywhere but in a bank. Full Story
We often see comments to the effect of interest in gold miner stocks as a play on gold. Ten days ago, we did an analysis of silver-related stocks, Taking Stock of Silver Stocks, looking at SLW, PAAS, CDE, AG, SSRI, and HL. While many view mining companies as a proxy for gold, they are not necessarily so. There are many influences that can affect the performance of a mining stock that are unrelated to the performance of the underlying physical: management, cost of mining, depletion, labor issues, added debt, etc. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 16 February, 2014
The Mexican financial journalist Guillermo Barba this week interviewed GATA Chairman Bill Murphy about gold market manipulation and some of the people who refuse to examine the documentation of it. The interview is posted at Barba's Internet site, Global Financial Intelligence. Full Story
Last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen testified before Congress for the first time since replacing Ben Bernanke at the beginning of the month. Her testimony confirmed what many of us suspected, that interventionist Keynesian policies at the Federal Reserve are well-entrenched and far from over. Mrs. Yellen practically bent over backwards to reassure Wall Street that the Fed would continue its accommodative monetary policy well into any new economic recovery. The same monetary policy that got us into this mess will remain in place until the next crisis hits. Full Story
Gold broke out decisively last week from its downtrend dating back to last August, a development that was confirmed by a dramatic high volume breakout by silver on Friday. On its 8-month chart we can see that gold broke out both from its downtrend and also from a Head-and-Shoulders bottom. It even managed to close above its 200-day moving average on Friday, although the fact that this average is still falling coupled with an overbought reading on its RSI indicator may lead to gold consolidating a little before it makes further gains. Full Story
There’s an old quote along the lines of if you’re going to lie, make it a big one, repeat it like crazy, and eventually, people will regard it as truth. Truth is awfully cheap these days. For as buffaloed as most people are with the state of economic affairs not only in the United States, but also in the rest of the world, you’d think they still believed the Earth was flat. Full Story
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors - 16 February, 2014
I fully intended to write today about a recently released academic paper that illustrates nearly every bad idea currently being bandied about in the field of economics. The insidious part is that the paper is considered mainstream and noncontroversial. Simply reading it required me to up my blood pressure medicine dosage. It is going to take me a little longer to finish that letter, and I realized that it needs a certain setup – one that coauthor Jonathan Tepper and I conveniently wrote a few months ago and included in the book Code Red. Full Story
2013 was a year of misery for the gold bugs. After 12 consecutive up years, a pause might have been expected but most failed to see the large drop that actually occurred. What happened was the worst down year for gold since 1997 and the highest loss since 1981. Gold fell 28% while silver was down 36%. The gold stocks fared worse as the Gold Bugs Index (HUI) came close to its 2008 low while the TSX Gold Index (TGD) actually fell slightly below the 2008 low. The gold bear that got underway in September 2011 is approaching three years in time. This has been the longest gold bear since the 1990’s. Full Story
By: Eric Coffin, HRA Advisories - 16 February, 2014
2013 worked out much better for most major bourses than even optimistic forecasters expected. In large part that was due to multiple expansion. Traders bid up the value of each dollar of earnings and the P/E ratio for the market increased. That generated great returns last year but don’t expect a repeat. Valuations are getting stretched and, so far, forward guidance by companies has been cautious. Full Story
We had a very strong week in the markets and many leading stocks this past week. In fact it was the best week this year by a long shot, but I do not think it will end up being our best week of the year in the end. This bull market we are in is very strong and has years to run from what I’m seeing. There are a lot of bears and underinvested funds out there as we basically are climbing the proverbial wall of worry. Full Story
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