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Weekly Archive

By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 21 December, 2007

-The tide of cash and credit is receding…why agricultural commodities are a different story…
-The Battle of the Market and the Manipulators…let them drink Diet Coke…
-The whole world to feel high and dry and thirsty… Copernicus and Newton were right…and more! Full Story

By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence LLC - 21 December, 2007

If you are a gold-stock investor, the dark cold days surrounding the winter solstice seem exceptionally fitting this year. As the warm sunlight has largely fled the northern hemisphere, so has bullish sentiment largely fled the gold stocks. Thankfully as inevitably as sun returning to the north, gold-stock sentiment too will thaw. Full Story

By: Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital, Inc. - 21 December, 2007

Among those rational enough to perceive the looming economic downturn, a heated debate has arisen that centers on whether the slowdown will be accompanied by inflation or deflation. Full Story

By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 21 December, 2007

As we approach the end of 2007 and a time when gold looks poised to move through its record high, and a time when global financial volatility and uncertainty have never been higher, it is time to look at what’s driving the gold market now and what lies ahead in 2008. Full Story

By: Puru Saxena - 21 December, 2007

Finally, over in the precious metals arena, both gold and silver are holding up reasonably well after some impressive gains. In my view, precious metals are simply consolidating before launching higher in the weeks ahead. I have little doubt in my mind that the Federal Reserve will slash its interest-rate in the next meeting and this should act as a catalyst for yet another rally in gold and silver. Full Story

By: Deepcaster - 21 December, 2007

Given the positive response from various parts of the world, it is clear that investors are increasingly fed up with market and data manipulation emanating from Washington, DC and elsewhere. We hope that the following will serve as a (partial, at least) antidote. Full Story

By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor - 21 December, 2007

It appears that the markets might be preparing for another rapid pull back and this pull back could be the one that launches the entire US market into a massive rally but this pull back could be circumvented by the lowering or the hint of lowering of interest rates. Full Story

By: Jim Willie CB - 21 December, 2007

The hidden bond insurers used by Wall Street firms are in the news, especially ACA Capital and MBIA. Implications are huge, with monumental ripple effects. Financial press reporting of the bond insurers is woefully inadequate. Moodys and Fitch are giving analysis review to nine ‘AAA’ rated bond insurers to see if they have sufficient capital to conduct their insurance operations. Full Story

By: Ira Epstein - 21 December, 2007

Today China once again raised their interest rates. The Bank of Canada, The Bank of England and the ECB look poised to lower their respective interest rates in early 2008, which is helping to prop up the US Dollar. Gold’s issue now is one of a rising Dollar. In my opinion Silver does not have the same issue since anything that benefits the US economy should provide a prop for silver prices. Full Story

By: Richard Daughty, The MOGAMBO GURU - 21 December, 2007

Well, the kids didn't like that news any better when it comes from official government sources, but at least they weren't rolling their eyes and making rude remarks about what a crappy father I am, which was nice for a change! Full Story

By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 20 December, 2007

-Sticking with the Trade of the Decade…the genius of Arthur Laffer's celebrated curve…
-Homeownership rates reverting to the mean…we've got your number, Mr. Greenspan…
-Mistaking free-floating loot for real prosperity…(fake) money isn't everything…and more! Full Story

By: Gary Dorsch, Editor, Global Money Trends newsletter - 20 December, 2007

The worst is yet to come for the global banking system, which faces potential losses of more than half-trillion dollars from investments in toxic sub-prime US mortgage debt. “The problems in the financial sector remain with us,” said Bank of England chief Mervyn King on Nov 19th. “A painful adjustment faces the global banking sector over the next few months as losses are revealed and new capital is raised to repair bank balance sheets,” he said. Full Story

By: Adrian Ash - 20 December, 2007

Gold hit new record highs for Australian owners in November this year, just as it did British gold buyers. Anyone trading in US Dollars, meantime, could have enjoyed an annual "income" from gold – selling their gains each New Year's Eve, and then using that yield to live off for the coming 12 months – of 17.6% gross on average since the start of 2003. Full Story

By: Paul Tustain - 20 December, 2007

This week the European Central Bank made $500 billion available through money market operations. And only last week $110bn of new money was created by central bank loans with artificially low rates and reduced-quality security. This is money creation on an epic scale. Full Story

By: Sean Corrigan - 20 December, 2007

You see, no matter how big the inflationary bubble, an offsetting deflation is merely a policy choice to be avoided in its wake. No cold turkey will be endured here – no emetic will be taken to purge the poison – only a stiff hair of the dog administered to spare the drunk the worst of his pain. Full Story

By: David N. Vaughn, Gold Letter, Inc. - 20 December, 2007

Our US Central Bank is providing a nice gift for those institutions experiencing a dire need for cash now. I don’t think many realize the significance of this event. What the Fed is doing is admitting and acknowledging that the world’s financial markets are in deep doo doo. Full Story

By: David Coffin and Eric Coffin - 20 December, 2007

Credit market participants have been shooting first and asking questions later. Funds, debt-tranches and institutions that seemed a world away from the sub-prime mess are being drawn in. As we have noted before, lack of transparency and trust are the real issues. Full Story

By: David Galland, Managing Director, Casey Research, LLC - 20 December, 2007

As you have probably heard, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has gone on record stating that, if the need arose, the Fed would print dollars by the helicopter load to smooth over a collapse in the 25-year borrow-and-spend bubble, a collapse that is now underway. Full Story

By: Richard Daughty, The MOGAMBO GURU - 20 December, 2007

In short, the banks loaned every additional dime of the trillions of dollars that they took in! And then more on top of that! No additional reserves at all! Not a freaking additional dime of reserves has been added in a decade or more! Full Story

By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 20 December, 2007

Saudi clerics have issued what amounts to a fatwa against the dollar, but their efforts might be better spent finding ways to invest surplus petrodollars so that the benefits are felt outside the royal palaces. Full Story

By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 19 December, 2007

-Inflation and deflation in a stand-off…the metal with a Ph.D. in economics is down 25%…
-When housing and finance go down - the entire economy will follow…a 'real' recession could be on its way…
-Paying taxes for no reason…would you rather live in Paris, France - or Paris, Texas?…and more! Full Story

By: Rep. Ron Paul, M.D. - 19 December, 2007

Madame Speaker, I rise to introduce the Free Competition in Currency Act. This act would eliminate two sections of US Code that, although ostensibly intended to punish counterfeiters, have instead been used by the government to shut down private mints. As anti-counterfeiting measures, these sections are superfluous, as 18 USC 485, 490, and 491 already grant sufficient authority to punish counterfeiters. Full Story

By: Peter Degraaf - 19 December, 2007

Central banks are battling the gold price, and they are capable of slowing down its ascent, but they cannot stop it. If they could stop it, gold would still be selling at 260.00 an ounce, the price where Gordon Browne made his last ditch effort, by selling 25 tonnes of British Government gold. Full Story

By: Axel Merk, Merk Hard Currency Fund - 19 December, 2007

We saw the U.S. dollar stage a significant rally last week. It is always difficult to pinpoint the reasons for short-term currency moves. But we would not be surprised if the new swap facility allowed pent-up demand by SIVs to buy U.S. dollars to be satisfied; this may have been amplified by profit taking of speculators. Our outlook for 2008 remains unchanged, but the turmoil in the credit markets may well contribute to additional volatility in all markets. Full Story

By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor - 19 December, 2007

This long term chart is indicating that in the mid term time frames China could experience what amounts to a minor recession. Thus copper could find support say at present level and rally all the way to the 3.80-4.10 ranges but then experience a hard pull back. Full Story

By: Ned W. Schmidt,CFA,CEBS - 19 December, 2007

Can the financial system be in as big a mess as central banks' actions suggest? Year end is rapidly approaching, and accounting convention calls for all to strike balance sheets. Those financial statements influence the evaluations of firms by investors, regulators, and rating agencies. Full Story

By: Richard Daughty, The MOGAMBO GURU - 19 December, 2007

Anyway, prices going up is why it looks like factory orders increased, and is the reason why I am gagging up blood, and if any of it gets on your shoes, don't come running to me because I never said that economics was pretty. Full Story

By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 19 December, 2007

The hourly charts continue to hold the key these days to “phenomenally accurate forecasts.” For example, after predicting a 30-point drop in the E-mini S&P futures a few days earlier, we used the 60-minute chart to catch the low of yesterday’s trampoline bounce within a single tick (i.e., a quarter-point). Full Story

By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 18 December, 2007

-Shot to pieces - but by which side?…central banks join hands to make credit more available…
-A set of incredibly interesting facts about China…sorry to be so wishy-washy…
-The blast heard around the globe…Doug Casey on Ron Paul…and more! Full Story

By: Theodore Butler - 18 December, 2007

The simple fact is that the days of the concentrated silver short position are numbered. All that remains to be seen is whether the end comes with or without regulatory involvement. As has been the case since I have written about silver, the best way for an investor to capitalize on this phenomenal story is by buying and holding real silver. Full Story

By: Eric Hommelberg - 18 December, 2007

The HUI faced a severe sell-off last week and is trading now as if gold were trading at the $650 level. Such huge anomalies never persist for a long period of time so what gives, or we should see a sharp decline in the gold price or the HUI will catch up sharply from here. Full Story

By: Daniel R. Amerman, CFA - 18 December, 2007

If the United States government was an individual or corporation, and we looked at the obligations it has entered into for the decades ahead – it would be bankrupt. However, the federal government is not an individual or corporation, and has powers that make these bankruptcy analogies quite dangerous for investors who take them to heart. Full Story

By: Dan Stinson - 18 December, 2007

The price action for Gold appears as a triangle pattern, indicating that an explosive breakout is imminent. This breakout could be to the upside or downside, but we are expecting it to break to the upside. We can let the price action within the triangle tell us which way its going to break. Full Story

By: Roy Martens - 18 December, 2007

This sense is telling me that pumping cheap money into the system can never be a solution. I will only create an even bigger problem, inflation, putting the Central Banks between a rock and a hard place. They can’t lower interest rates any more due to the higher inflation rates, and they can’t raise them either because they will kill the economy all together. What a mess they have built! Full Story

By: Steven Saville, Speculative Investor - 18 December, 2007

If the HUI drops back to the mid-300s within the next 2-3 weeks then it will make sense to exit any insurance positions (put options, etc.) at that time. Alternatively, if the HUI makes things difficult by rebounding immediately then an opportunity to purchase new insurance positions -- GDX June-2008 put options, for example -- could arise early in the New Year. Full Story

By: Richard Daughty, The MOGAMBO GURU - 18 December, 2007

Let me get this straight; grumpy Russians, in the midst of a gloomy winter, are experiencing inflation in food prices of 1.2% in a month? And prices are up 10% in the last 49 weeks, meaning that prices are still rising like a rocket? Yikes! Full Story

By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 18 December, 2007

Inflationists have always maintained that the Fed would do whatever it takes to prevent the economy from slipping into deflation. How seemingly fortuitous, then, that someone deserving of the nickname “Helicopter Ben” was at the helm of the Federal Reserve when it came time to push monetary expansion to its theoretical limit. Full Story

By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 17 December, 2007

-Winners turning into losers left and right…deficits as far as the eye can see…
-People will switch from believing in Win-Win Capitalism - to Lose-Lose Capitalism without even noticing…
-Is stagflation around the corner?…2008 will be a bumpy ride for investors…an interesting family tree…and more! Full Story

By: Captain Hook - 17 December, 2007

Whether it be due to a global currency crisis, it’s effects, or because worse is yet to come, no matter, the ever-growing hyperinflationary mountain of paper promises is precariously perched on the edge of a precipice ready to fall, and in doing so; such an event would accelerate the end of the US Dollar ($) empire, along with its dominance in world affairs and trade. Full Story

By: Antal E. Fekete - 17 December, 2007

Owners of capital can protect themselves through exporting their remaining funds to low-wage countries. The trouble is that well-paid industrial jobs are exported along with capital, never to return. American labor is stuck with low-paid service jobs such as flipping hamburgers. The outlook is even bleaker. As interest rates keep falling, even hamburger-flipping may go the way of steel-making. Mass unemployment, directly attributable to fiat currency destabilizing the interest-rate structure, is a real threat. Full Story

By: Antal E. Fekete - 17 December, 2007

The true story of de-industrialization in America has never been told. The boat of American industry has collided with the iceberg of falling interest-rate structure. The damage to capital is great and the boat is sinking. Full Story

By: Clive Maund - 17 December, 2007

We don’t normally look at fundamentals in these Gold Market updates, but it is worth stopping for a moment to consider the implications of the latest stroke of genius announced last week by the Fed in its desperate attempts to prevent a credit crunch, as it has important implications for the price of gold. Full Story

By: Clive Maund - 17 December, 2007

In the last Silver Market update on 2nd December it was stated that if dollar strength continued as expected, silver could drop below the support zone centered on $14 and head lower towards the next support level in the $13.25 - $13.50 area. Since that time it has held up above the $14 support zone, but it dropped quite sharply late last week on renewed dollar strength and at the time of writing on Sunday 16th it has just broken below this support. Full Story

By: Gold Investments - 17 December, 2007

Gold opened strongly in Asia but has since sold off and the London AM Fix was at $787.00. At the London AM Fix gold was trading at £391.38 GBP (marginally down from Friday's London AM Fix at £392.18) and €549.08 EUR (up from Friday's London AM Fix at €547.18). Thus while gold has sold off in dollars, it has remained flat in sterling and actually increased in euros. Full Story

By: Boris Sobolev - 17 December, 2007

In reality, it is becoming clear that the central banks’ attempts to stabilize the financial system are failing. The banks are not taking advantage of the discount window and the recently announced $40 billion auction of cheap funds is nothing but a drop in the bucket. Full Story

By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 17 December, 2007

For a growing list of Russian oligarchs, gold is the new oil. Russia’s wealthiest are piling into the bullion sector and eight of the country’s 10 richest men are investing in gold. Full Story

By: Merv Burak, CMT - 17 December, 2007

Gold ended the week just about where it started but the “feel” of the activity had a decided negative emphasis. Will this week set the pace for the next few months? Full Story

By: Douglas V. Gnazzo - 17 December, 2007

For the past two weeks the price of gold has hovered right above or below its lower trend line. It has not yet broken down below it enough, nor bounced off it high enough, to give a clear signal as to its short term direction. It is presently consolidating. Full Story

By: Deepcaster - 17 December, 2007

Deepcaster is periodically asked to explain, and provide evidence for, our view that a U.S. Federal Reserve-led Cartel (apparently composed of the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank for International Settlements ("BIS") - - The Central Bankers’ Bank - - and key primary dealers, acting with the cooperation of major Central Bankers) manipulates a wide variety of markets. Full Story

By: Radio - 16 December, 2007

1st Hour:
Headline news & market forecast.
Spotlight Picks with big dividends.
The International Forecaster and Chris Waltzek answer listener questions.

2nd Hour:
Harry S. Dent Jr. Full Story

By: Chris Powell, GATA - 16 December, 2007

Paul said that there is "no accountability" in the U.S. monetary system and blamed the Fed's manipulation of market interest rates for the recent stock market and housing bubbles. Full Story

By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Investments - 16 December, 2007

Things That Go Bump in the Night

Foolish Investor of the Year?Really?

Breaking the Buck at Bank of America

Inflation Rears it Ugly Head

Academics at the Fed

1% Growth plus 4.3% Inflation = Stagflation

London, Switzerland, and Barcelona Full Story

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