How does a major mining company like Goldcorp use a bear market in precious metals to grow its business?
Well, many of the mining businesses that have been successful over the last 10 to 15 years had their start in the last bear market. The current market feels a lot like 1999-2000 and that was a time when the companies that had the ability to do so had fantastic opportunities to go out an acquire assets at deflated prices and build new companies. Full Story
Gold has had a volatile week, but rose from $1147 last Friday afternoon to a high of $1205 on Tuesday. On Wednesday the price moved between down $25 on the latest opinion poll on the Swiss referendum, then recovered to $23 before falling again on the release of the Fed’s FOMC minutes. However, despite these unsettling swings gold rose on the week by about $30 overall, making it two weeks in a row as shown in our first chart. Full Story
We will clip this post here and go on managing the market as always, taking what it gives, managing against what it is one day going to take and keep the big picture view in place at all times. That view very simply is that 6 years on from the US financial crisis (ongoing, though that is an unpopular notion at this time) a global cadre of policy makers are playing a transparent game of Whack-a-Mole trying to one-up each other until the whole thing flushes once again. Full Story
The topic of ‘currency war’ has been bantered about in financial circles since at least the term was first used by Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega in September 2010. Recently, the currency war has escalated, and a ‘sanctions war’ against Russia has broken out. History suggests that financial assets are highly unlikely to preserve investors’ real purchasing power in this inhospitable international environment, due in part to the associated currency crises, which will catalyse at least a partial international remonetisation of gold. Vladimir Putin, under pressure from economic sanctions, may calculate that now is the time to play his ‘gold card’. Full Story
Western governments have done a moron’s job of managing the world’s largest, most important currencies — the dollar, the euro, the yen, the pound … and others. Politicians have spent unimaginable sums of money that their economies don’t have in order to give voters undeserved benefits and payoffs. They’ve issued gargantuan sums of debt to do so, and then relied on their central bankers to manipulate the monetary system to delay the reckonings that must happen in order to clear the monetary system of imbalances that the politicians and bankers have fostered. Full Story
Amazingly, skepticism amongst the PM community has become so pervasive, even some of its wisest strongest leaders are fearful TPTB will be able to suppress gold and silver prices in the event of a Swiss “yes” vote. Claims that “swaps” will be substituted for the real thing are a specific “goldbug fear” I have read of, and the SNB dragging their feet on mandated gold purchases another; as clearly, many of us have been lulled into a fear that somehow the Cartel will always “find a way to win.” However, “Economic Mother Nature” assures us prices cannot stay this low for long, and the reality of a global monetary awakening is clearly occurring as we speak. Remember, it’s always “darkest before the dawn”; and right now, the “darkness” been more pervasive. Have faith in your insurance and don’t put yourself in a position to lose it. As unlike health, fire and flood insurance – which may one day be needed; fiat currency insurance will be required – likely sooner rather than later. Full Story
Marin Katusa: Under the leadership of President Vladimir Putin, Russia has reestablished itself as the alternative to the American superpower. Putin has aligned himself with nations like China to work in concert against U.S. interests globally. Furthermore, a new bank formed by the BRICS countries—Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa—will attempt to assert itself as an alternative to the International Monetary Fund.
The Colder War will be a long battle, just like the first Cold War, but in the Colder War, judgment day of the petrodollar will be the critical battle. One must understand global politics and the Colder War to be a successful investor in the energy sector. Full Story
Be suspicious of the “happy talk” and “fear this” pronouncements from governments, central banks, and Wall Street. Be your own bank – more real money, less paper and digital currency. Stack your real money in a safe place – preferably a private vault outside the banking system. Be aware that digital currency can disappear rapidly, as in a financial reset, derivative crash, confiscation, currency collapse, cyber-attack or whatever. Trust and hope that digital currency will SLOWLY lose it value, but have a backup plan for when a crash actually occurs. Be wary of the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse and the trauma they always bring. Full Story
By: Ira Epstein, The Linn Group - 19 November, 2014
The swings are and will continue to be fairly wild unless the polls results widen in favor of the “no” vote. In the meantime there will be a number of traders who’ve been and will continue buying options in hope of seeing a “yes” vote. Are investors throwing they’re money away? That can’t be answered because no one knows what the referendum’s outcome will be, but yes, I think they are. I’m of the opinion it will fail, not because gold isn’t storage of value, but because passage of the referendum would to a degree tie the hands of the Swiss National Bank. Full Story
By: David Galland, Partner, Casey Research - 19 November, 2014
It is a rare moment in one’s life when the bureaucratic curtain falls away long enough to reveal something approximating The Truth. In my opinion, that’s what I observed over breakfast four years ago. That, right or wrong, the proactive military strategy of the US had been turned toward Russia. Knowing that and no more, one can only guess what actual measures have been planned and set into motion to defang the Russian bear. Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital - 19 November, 2014
As Japanese Prime Minster Shinzo Abe has turned his country into a petri dish of Keynesian ideas, the trajectory of Japan's economy has much to teach us about the wisdom of those policies. And although the warning sirens are blasting at the highest volumes imaginable, few economists can hear the alarm. Full Story
David Cameron, Prime Minister of Britain wrote an article which was published in The Guardian yesterday. The headline "Red lights are flashing on the global economy" in my opinion is very true what he followed the headline with was not. In this article which was penned after leaving the G-20 summit, Mr. Cameron went on to mostly tell the truth about the global woes but was very careful to exclude Great Britain. To me, this sounded like some sort of "whistle stop" campaign about how well Britain is being managed and their risk is the possibility of being tipped over by global events. Full Story
A lot of folks took advantage of recently falling gold and silver prices to beef up their precious metals holdings. Those adding to their portfolios understood the old adage of buying low and selling high. Unfortunately, others wait until dollar values of gold and silver have zoomed before deciding to convert their paper money. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 19 November, 2014
Not only is Australia exporting a great deal of iron ore, base metals and energy resources to China, it’s also shipping a lot of gold to meet the country’s insatiable demand. How much gold?? Turns out to be one heck of a lot. Just a few years ago, China received very little gold from Australia. However, since 2011, a trickle has now turned into a torrent. According to the Australian Government Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics China Resources Quarterly Reports, China received just 31 metric tons (mt) of gold from Australia in 2011. Full Story
As a follower and participant in the gold bull market from 2002 until now I can say unequivocally that the two most bearish periods sentiment-wise in the bull market so far are the fall of 2008, and right now. Therefore, by definition, the two most profitable times to buy gold stocks were in the fall of 2008, and right now. This simple concept is incredibly difficult for most people to understand and put into action. Full Story
The strength (or weakness) in the U.S. dollar is one of the most important drivers of price of gold. However, this is not always true and there are times when they rise or fall simultaneously. The positive correlation between U.S. dollar and gold occurred, for instance, from May through December 1993, from May until November 2005, and at the turn of the 2008 and 2009. Full Story
The textbook definition of a correction is a drop of 10% or more. The stock market came close to hitting that correction benchmark and has mounted a furious rally since mid-October. The S&P 500 has staged a remarkable rally, jumping by 12% from its October lows in just four weeks. There’s something in our DNA that pushes humans to follow the herd, and investors have been herding into the stock market in almost unprecedented enthusiasm. I mean really herd. Full Story
I mentioned earlier that I wanted to revisit the current GOFO rate situation and also the huge anomaly which occurred on the COMEX not once, but two days in a row to end last week. I have written several times regarding "GOFO" which is the lease rate for London gold. The last time I did this was back in May of this year, rather than writing another explanation I will copy and paste what was written then. I will comment further after the May missive below... Full Story
In my professional opinion, gold demand in India for Diwali has been the main price driver of this rally, and that demand has overwhelmed speculators carrying short positions on the COMEX. Tremendous corruption exists in the Indian government, and the bullion banks that have traditionally controlled most gold imports, are not happy with the recent decision of the Indian central bank to allow non-bank entities to compete with them. Full Story
As surprising as it might sound today, we believe the secular trend for commodities has higher elevations to travel, before eventually running its course - possibly as far out as early into the next decade. While in 2011 we became adamant that the thesis trade in commodities - specifically in its leading sector of precious metals, had become crowded and overhyped, those excesses have been wrung out of the markets over the past three and a half years and offer what we perceive to be extremely compelling long-term valuations going forward. Full Story
On the television series Dragnet, Sgt. Joe Friday was known for his calm demeanor while questioning witnesses. When they began to ramble, he would corral them with comments like, “Just the facts, ma’am.” Sound advice for the witness stand, but when it comes to retirement planning, Sgt. Friday was giving the wrong instructions. Instead of asking for “just the facts” we should ask for “all the facts.” Full Story
Gold and silver look like they have bottomed – again. Perhaps this time it will be a real bottom instead of another fake-out like December 2013 and June 2014. Demand is strong for physical gold and silver, but the supply of naked paper shorts on the COMEX is even larger. This will change. I see prices under $20 as a strong buy zone since I believe that $100 silver is only a few years away. Full Story
I would have written off the gold sector long ago in its ongoing bear market had I thought for one moment that gold’s utility as insurance against the acts of monetary madmen/women in high places had been compromised in any way. On the contrary, the monetary metal is simply having its price marked down in a bear market while its value, especially given its current price and all that has gone on in the financial system over the last 3 years remains just fine. Full Story
GDX is leading the breakout of the bullish broadening wedge that is gold priced in dollars. This is not surprising and is not a guarantee that gold breaks out. GDX is massively oversold in the midst of the biggest equity bubble seen since the last one in 1999. As for gold in other currencies, they are neutral to slightly bullish. A better picture should emerge in the December time-frame. Full Story
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil for December delivery is currently priced at $75 per barrel, Brent for January delivery at $78 per barrel. Many investors, publications and news sources focus only on the drawbacks to falling oil and gas prices—don’t get me wrong, there are many—but today we’re going to give the spotlight to the biggest winners and beneficiaries. Full Story
We finally have some movement within the gold complex, and for a welcomed change, it’s to the upside. It has been dicey lately, as the back and forth daily swings have been unnerving. It’s not common within bear markets to see an asset form a Cycle Low and then just take off to the upside. This is why anyone trading the precious metals sector needs to understand that the Long traders carry with them a lot of anxiety. Past experiences have them guarded, which is why we see these frequent quick intra-day reversals…they’re spooked far too easily. Full Story
I say nonsense to most of the above. In the words and charts that follow, I will provide irrefutable evidence that the weakness in hard commodities over the past four months can be overwhelmingly attributed to the strength of the US dollar. My argument is based on elementary statistics, a general math requirement to earn a college degree. Full Story
How low can gold go? Chen Lin expects a probable near-term low of $1,000/ounce. The author of the What is Chen Buying? What is Chen Selling? newsletter says that at that price we can expect a bloodbath of companies, both large and small. Gold cannot be kept down forever, however, and once the bottom is in, those miners that have survived will be in an enviable position, able to buy lucrative assets at bargain prices. In this interview with The Gold Report, Lin explains where he thinks the precious metals market is heading. Full Story
In 1324, King Edward II of England codified something that had already been taken for granted for nearly half a millennium—the definition of the inch. Henceforth, the inch was defined as "three grains of barley, dry and round, placed end to end, lengthwise". A foot was then 36 barleycorns and a yard was 108 barleycorns. Taken to its logical extreme, five yards make a perch and 40 perches in length and four in breadth define one acre. Seems pragmatic—right?? Start counting your barleycorn. Full Story
The tax benefits of Puerto Rican residency gained some attention and notoriety when hedge fund billionaire John Paulson went to Puerto Rico to “kick the tires.” He did not become a Puerto Rican resident (not yet, at least), but ended up buying a resort there instead. My theory is that John Paulson can’t move anywhere without attracting adverse media attention. The media would declare that Paulson’s purchase of a Big Gulp at Seven Eleven as tax motivated. Full Story
This article could have simply been called ‘Staying Alive’, because it’s about central bank(s) desire to stay alive. But in order to do this, they must stay ahead of the curve now with the bubbles poised to pop, blowing them ever larger, or die. Square headed observers may retort such a sentiment with the Fed traditionally backward looking – reactionary – in setting policy, but this is not your father’s Fed my son. Full Story
Lately I have been wondering as to why the stock market has climbed to such heights, especially banking stocks and IT stocks...when there is no real reason for them to be traded in such an expensive price range. And who can afford to buy such expensive stocks (in terms of price to earnings ratio and other fundamentals). Full Story
Gold moved substantially higher on Friday and the volume was huge. The session was both significant and bullish, but the question remains if such show of strength can be a start of the next big move. As we promised in Friday’s second alert, we analyzed the situation thoroughly over the weekend and are reporting to you today. Full Story
Mario Draghi once again surfaced this morning to promise to do “whatever it takes” to help the Eurozone. Draghi has done this anytime the EU markets drop ever since the bottom in the summer of 2012. It’s amazing to watch, particularly when you consider that it is now public information that Draghi actually didn’t have a plan when he first claimed this and is effectively making up policy on the fly. Full Story
Election time in America these days is definitely not a time when one should be searching the various pearls of ‘wisdom’ dumped on the airwaves, billboards, and newsprint for the truth. Such is especially the case when it comes to economics. So twisted is the entire notion that the stock market is equated to ‘economics’ as if it is some ersatz term that is used whenever someone wants to pull the wool over our eyes. That is just but one example. Full Story
This past Friday was a near carbon copy of the previous Friday for the precious metals. Both were "outside reversal" days where the overnight and morning sessions were quite weak, only to bottom and then reverse to the upside strongly on very heavy volume by the day's end. First, this type of action is almost unheard of for precious metals and has happened only a handful of times over the last 15-20 years. Also, both reversals were quite large from the day's early lows to their final closes, the range was 3-4% which obliterated the long held "2% rule". We have now seen this twice in exactly 6 trading days and both were on a Friday. Full Story
Gold traders turned bullish for the first time in three weeks as prices neared four-year lows. Additionally, this month U.S. Mint gold coin sales are already more than half of what they were in October, which was the strongest month since January. Austria Mint sales are up 40 percent from October. Full Story
If you go to the website, www.coinflation.com today you will find that the composition of a nickel is 75% copper and 25% nickel. Originally only silver dollars were real money at .77 troy oz of silver per dollar. Dimes, quarters and halves were 90% silver just like the silver dollar but 2 halves, 4 quarters or 10 dimes only had .715 troy oz of silver. The difference was seignorage or the cost of making the smaller units. The lowly penny and nickel were mere tokens that were not really worth anything near their commodity value. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 17 November, 2014
Any gold purchases made by the Swiss National Bank pursuant to approval of the initiative in the referendum on November 30 are unlikely to have much impact on the gold market because the purchases would be small and made over time and because they likely would be accomplished outside the gold market and through central banks, which are always trading gold among themselves. (Secretly, of course, to facilitate their market interventions.) Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 17 November, 2014
According to the technical method I use — my own system — turning the daily chart bullish in a way that would suggest a decisive end to the long bear market would require the December Comex — currently trading for around 1189.10 — to hit 1297.70. Moreover, the rally would need to be uncorrected once the peak at 1255.60 recorded on October 21 has been exceeded. Full Story
Bob Hoye thinks widening credit spreads suggests a repeat of the 2007 credit contraction is imminent, resulting in a cyclical top in the stock market. Key Takeaway: The Gold / Commodity ratio bottomed in June and continues to trend higher, suggesting that precious metals miners will soon benefit from the sea change. David Morgan - Summary: Approximately 4,000 paper / fiat currencies (99.9%) have failed in human history - the Greenback / Euro / Yen will follow suit. Full Story
If commodities and gold are ready to reverse then the first thing that has to happen is the dollar needs to form a top. I think that may have occurred on November 7th when the last employment report was released. Notice how the dollar formed a key reversal on that day, which was retested Friday and failed, forming a bearish engulfing candlestick. Full Story
The Goldman Sachs’ argument about further falls in the gold price does have a fundamental flaw. The economic scenario it proposes it not very likely to happen, ergo gold prices are on the floor now and set to rise substantially in the very near future. Full Story
If you’re waiting for capitulation in the gold market, don’t hold your breath – An argument for why the bottom in gold will come with a whimper, not a bang and why the mainstream media might be looking for capitulation in the wrong place. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 16 November, 2014
Something BIG changed after the collapse of the U.S. Investment and Housing Markets as a huge crack in the Fiat Monetary System took place. After the world nearly disintegrated under the debt-based U.S Dollar system in 2008, some of the Central Banks of the world finally found MONETARY RELIGION. Full Story
By: Richard (Rick) Mills, Ahead of the herd - 16 November, 2014
China and the SCO, while rejecting western dominated financial institutions and a U.S. inspired status quo, are increasingly embracing a regional coordination of Asian economic and security concerns. An Asian gold standard should be on all precious metal investors radar screens. It’s on my screen, is it on yours? Full Story
Until there is a clear break of elite’s central banking dominance over the gold and silver markets, there will be no dramatic recovery reflective of where the true price for both metals should be. Whether it is $5,000 or $10,000 for gold or $100 or $200 for silver [the ounce], the current distorted pricing, as dictated by the paper derivative market and not actual physical metal, will prevail demonstrating the power the elites exert at will. Full Story
A strange week for markets having not really advanced, but importantly, have worked off their massive overbought reading. Leadings stocks are resting or consolidating a bit while some remain strong. The bottom line remains that we are in the thick of the nice run into years end and new buy points are setting up as I type. Full Story
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