I watched Trump’s press conference in full following his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Helsinki. To me, Trump sounded positive and perfectly reasonable, and his behavior at this time was actually Statesmanlike. Here is a link to the full press briefing including an English translation of what Mr Putin said. It is worth watching this in full if you haven’t already, as shortened versions are likely to be selectively edited. Full Story
Gold’s summer doldrums are dragging on this year, with this asset slumping longer and lower than usual. Several converging factors are responsible. The stronger dollar has convinced gold-futures speculators to sell aggressively, and gold’s downside momentum has fed on itself. Investment demand has waned on the resulting weaker gold prices and euphoric near-record-high stock markets, but that should reverse soon. Full Story
In the long run, I’m very bullish on gold. But like all commodities, gold is very cyclical. The price of gold and other important data I’ll show you in a moment is something I’m paying very close attention to through my holdings. I’ve written big checks and made big buy orders on assets that I believe are very cheap and well-priced in today’s currency commodity markets. Full Story
The road to war between the US and China is well on its way to being paved. Between economic threats and bluffs being called in the form of $34 billion in tit for tat tariffs, plus Chinese military expansion/aggression in the South China Sea, the prediction of Steve Bannon that war between China and the US is inevitable may regrettably be coming to fruition. Full Story
Bill Murphy of GATA.org notes precious metals investors will ultimately be rewarded for their patience. An endgame scenario is unfolding in the financial markets that could result in an explosive move higher for safe haven assets. As long as US equities remain the risk-off trade, du jour, the PMs may remain in a cyclical trading range. Full Story
New information suggests that the cost to produce gold is much higher than what the market realizes. As the cost to produce gold has skyrocketed over the past two decades, the mining industry has hidden certain costs by placing them in their capital expenditures. This has lowered their “Cost of Sales” figures but has significantly increased their capital expenditures. Full Story
He did it again. It seems that Powell does not like gold. The price of the yellow metal declined more than 1 percent amid his testimony to the Congress, just as after February’s hearing. What did Powell say? Full Story
Now that the "summer doldrums" for the metals and miners seem to be upon us – which may or may not last until after Labor Day – it might be worth your time to "measure" your precious metals' holdings. Let's start by taking a look at the terms and (simplified) definitions for foreign and domestically-listed mineral resource-sector companies that are listed on a Canadian stock exchange. Full Story
The trading action in the paper gold markets of London and NY this week further convinces me that gold is being pushed down in price by the western Central Banks similar to the take-down in the paper price that occurred in 2008. The motive is to prevent a soaring gold price from signaling to the markets that a big problem is percolating in the global economic and banking systems. Full Story
Head of the Trends Research Institute, Gerald Celente expresses concerns over the potential for a showdown of epic proportions in the Middle East. Extreme tensions in the region could ignite the crude oil market, sending price per barrel soaring while sparking a stampede into the precious metals sector. The theme could benefit gold shares as well, according to the work of Seabridge Gold CEO, Rudi Fronk, who notes peak gold is in place. Full Story
Debt will increase until the system implodes. The dollar will continue devaluing as it has since 1913. Purchasing power will decline as prices rise for most items except televisions and computers. A loss of confidence in the dollar, U.S. government, or military will jump-start inflation to much higher levels. Politicians and bankers have not protected the value of the dollar for decades. Full Story
In his book Nobody Knows Anything, my friend Bob Moriarty wrote about the difference between signal and noise. Unfortunately, much of the information in the gold space or what passes for such is really noise. Conspiracy theories around manipulation, price suppression and China are all too popular while important factors like real interest rates, investment demand and gold’s relationship to equities are neglected. At present the Gold market has experienced a critical breakdown yet in some circles a new theory and explanation is gaining traction. Full Story
With the first half of 2018 now behind us, it’s an opportune time to look at whats been happening in the Chinese Gold Market. As a reminder, China is the largest gold producer in the world, the largest gold importer in the world, and China’s Shanghai Gold Exchange is the largest physical gold exchange in the world. Full Story
A summer storm is gathering against the housing market all across the US. More than a year ago, I predicted the collapse of Housing Bubble 2.0 and then predicted as soon as the housing market collapse had begun that it would see temporary reprieve until the summer of 2018. Well, that reprieve has ended … two months ahead of the schedule I suggested as an outlier. The storm clouds are now evident across the entire nation. More importantly, lightning is already striking in the nation’s healthiest housing markets. Full Story
The recent currency and debt crises in Argentina and Turkey raise questions about the condition of the global economy in general and the emerging countries in particular. Are they merely isolated events without broader implications or are they canary in the emerging market mine? Full Story
As part of Merk's in-house research we regularly evaluate a consistent set of charts covering the economy, equities, fixed income, commodities and currencies. The aim is to keep our eyes open and to look through the noise of the headlines, avoiding the distractions of sensationalized click-bait. In sharing this content, we offer a cross-check to your own thinking and aim to add value to your own process. Full Story
In the 2nd July Weekly Update we discussed the risk posed by the recent weakening of China’s currency (the Yuan), and commented: “We won’t know for sure until China’s central bank publishes its international currency reserve figure for June, but the recent weakening of the Yuan does not appear to be the result of a deliberate move by China’s government.” We now know for sure — the Yuan’s pronounced weakness during the month of June was NOT the result of government manipulation. In fact, it can be more aptly described as the result of an absence of manipulation. Full Story
Let's cut to the chase. While the price of COMEX Digital Silver is being pounded lower in 2018, demand for actual physical silver in India is soaring. On Louis' chart below, note that the all-time peak in Indian silver demand came in 2015... when the price of COMEX Digital Silver bottomed below $14 and then began a 50% rally to $21 by mid-2016. In fact, the month of April 2018 alone saw India import 902 metric tonnes, the highest one-month total since December of 2015. Full Story
You see, as I have tried to explain so many times, exogenous events do not drive the market in the manner that so many falsely believe they do. So, while you continue to read all those articles that provide you with “reasons” as to what the market will do or has done, I am here to tell you that you are simply wasting your time. Full Story
Several of us who stick our neck out in public with analytic opinions on the market have been thinking that gold has reached a tradable bottom. I’m sure many would say that view is flawed based on today’s action. Let me preface my thoughts by saying that, over the last 17 years of daily active involvement in the precious metals sector, I don’t pull my hair out over intra-day or even intra-year volatility. Full Story
For every promising investment opportunity you come across, there are multiple opportunities for bad-faith brokers and hucksters to try to rip you off. It could be undisclosed commissions and fees in an annuity, unwanted accounts opened up by a banker seeking additional fees, trades sabotaged by market manipulators, or any number of other schemes. Rip-off artists, unfortunately, operate within the precious metals space as well. Full Story
The world’s greatest asset is on sale. In China, India, and the Western gold community, shoppers are happily placing small amounts of “golden groceries” into their shopping carts each week, and enjoying the price sale. From a technical perspective, this chart is magnificent. The left shouldering process took about eighteen months, and the right shouldering process has just reached the same eighteen months of time. Full Story
Precious metals sector is on a long term buy signal. Short term is on mixed signals. Cycle is up. COT data is supportive for overall higher metal prices. We are holding gold related ETFs for long term gain. Full Story
Most people believe that risk and reward go hand in hand. In other words, in order to reap a large reward, one must also risk a great deal. So, for example, if seeking to double or triple your money, then – should your analysis (or the execution of your trading plan) be incorrect – you would anticipate that your entire stake could disappear in the process. Full Story
China appears to have more to lose from a trade war with the US simply because the math behind surpluses and deficits renders the Bubble Blowers in Beijing at a big disadvantage. When you get right down to the nuclear option in a trade war, Trump could impose tariffs on all the $505 billion worth of Chinese goods exports while Premier Xi can only impose a duty on $129 billion of US goods. However, this doesn’t mean China completely runs out of ammunition. Full Story
The markets are in serious trouble as the extreme oil price volatility continues to devastate the global economy. Investors and analysts today are totally clueless because they have become the frogs burnt to a crisp in the frying pan. Over the past several decades, the oil price has fluctuated tremendously, much like the EKG of an individual whose vital signs have run amuck. Full Story
Near the beginning of the year, Goldman Sachs analyst Jeffrey Currie made the case that the macro backdrop right now favored commodities in 2018. With inflation pushing prices up and world economies borrowing record amounts of capital, it was the best time “in decades,” he said, for investors to have exposure to base metals, energy and other materials. Full Story
Yes, you read it well! The WGC indeed wrote a report on the link between gold and climate change. Actually, it has 40 pages! The justification is that “many investors are keen to understand the potential climate change impacts of their assets,” including gold. The main findings are that total greenhouse gas emissions from gold are significantly lower (especially when looked at per U.S. dollar value) than other major products sourced primarily from mining, such as steel, aluminum and coal. Thus, investment in gold may help reduce the carbon footprint of an investment portfolio, which should be welcomed by environmental activists. Moreover, gold itself may play an important role in technologies that help facilitate a transition to a low carbon economy, so owning gold may reduce the investors’ exposure to climate change risks. Full Story
Trade wars are the biggest threat to both the U.S. and global economy. Set aside, at least for now, rising U.S. interest rates and rising oil prices. It is trade wars that are the biggest threat. At least, that is the consensus of most leading economists. The White House begs to differ and has consistently said they can win the trade wars because countries will be fearful of retaliation, or they will capitulate and sign a deal that the U.S. wants. President Trump has said “trade wars are good, and easy to win.” Trump’s White House trade czar Peter Navarro has said “I don’t believe any country will retaliate.” Full Story
The best performing metal this week was gold, down 1.10 percent. Holdings in the SPDR Gold Shares ETF, which accounts for more than one-third of total bullion-backed ETFs, have fallen to the smallest since August. However, gold assets in the London-listed iShares Physical Gold ETC are at a new record. Full Story
Housing bubbles proceed in fairly predictable stages. Stage One is long and (initially) slow, fueled by excess central bank money creation or foreign demand or some other source of liquidity that encourages large numbers of people to buy houses. At first, sellers remember the peak prices from the previous bubble and aren’t willing to sell at anything less than that (in finance-speak, they’re “anchored” at the highest price they could have gotten last time around). Full Story
The market went according to expectations and projections in the second week of July after the first week's huge bull reversal week. The bulls were able to retain their bull train momentum from the prior week and managed to do a decent job on the standard continuation upside pattern demonstrated by the consecutive higher lows and higher highs on the micro charts. Full Story
The information provided in the BIS monthly statements is not sufficient to calculate a precise amount of gold-related derivatives, including swaps, but it appears that the bank's total exposure as of June 30, 2018, was approximately 413 tonnes of gold, which is essentially unchanged from May. When it comes to its activities in the gold market, the BIS provides little information on what it is doing, why, and for whom. Full Story
Precious metals investors have learned a difficult truth in recent years. The best way to control a market is to put Wall Street in charge of it. Gold and silver futures were created in the 1970s with the admitted purpose of “increasing volatility” in the markets and discouraging the ownership of physical bullion. It is a lesson that participants in other markets would do well to learn – specifically the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets. Full Story
Every month Government, corporate and household debt hits a new all-time high. The entire financial system is heading down an unsustainable path of debt issuance. The delinquency rate for auto and credit card debt is already at levels last seen in late 2008. The only reason the banks are not on the ropes – yet – is because they are still sitting on most of the liquidity the Fed injected into the banking system from 2009 to 2015. Full Story
Consequently, the final implications come down to the question if gold is in a medium-term downtrend. The reply is quite straightforward - of course it is due to multiple bearish signals that we discussed previously and the recent breakdown below the rising medium-term support line and its verification serve as a strong confirmation. Full Story
In part I the Great Reset, we said that a reset is a terrible thing. The closest example is the fall of Rome in 476AD, in which more than 90% of the population of the city fled or died. No one should wish for this to happen, but we are unfortunate to live under a failing monetary system. Debt is growing exponentially. A way must be found to transition to the use of gold. Full Story
The economies of the world are at an inflection point. Enough data points have now presented themselves to be able to see the outlines of a major shift in the markets of the world. We are at a pay attention moment. There comes a time when a successful investor must make some hard decisions to position himself to be able to take advantage of opportunities down the road. The markets are telling us now is such a moment. Full Story
For those that follow me regularly, you will know that I have been tracking a set-up for the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA: GLD), which I analyze as a proxy for the gold market. I also believe that gold can outperform the general equity market once we confirm a long-term break out has begun. Full Story
These refusals to answer specific questions about an obviously sensitive point on which the value of all capital, labor, goods, and services in the world depends are as good as admissions that something deceptive and discreditable is going on with governments, central banks, gold, and the financial markets generally. Full Story
Arch Crawford, head of Crawford Perspectives for 41 consecutive years, outlines his technical perspective on the global financial markets. US shares could continue to decline along with global equities where shares in the Shanghai exchange dropped 21% from the peak. Best selling author, Dr. Stephen Leeb returns with a solid outlook on the gold sector. The precious metals could merge with the blockchain to facilitate sound money transactions at an accelerated pace and with far greater transparency. Full Story
We are approaching the end of the debt Train Wreck series. I’ve spent several weeks explaining why I think excessive debt is dragging the world economy toward an epic crash. The tracks ahead are clear for now but will not remain so. The end probably won’t be pretty. But there’s good news, too: we have time to get our portfolios, our businesses, and our families prepared. Full Story
While gold bug sentiment, Commitments of Traders and the historical seasonal pattern all indicate a good potential for a gold rally coming soon, the stock market’s ratio to gold continues to indicate that risk is on and the play has certainly not been to be hiding in precious metals from the stock crash that never arrives. Quite the contrary. Full Story
Not so long ago, student debt was mostly the responsibility of students. That is, you paid for college with loans and then paid off those loans with the proceeds of the good job you got with an advanced education. These days it’s a little different. The cost of higher education is soaring, the jobs available to college grads don’t pay as much, relatively speaking, as they used to, and the size of loans available to students – though huge – don’t cover the full cost of many degrees. Full Story
How is the U.S. is becoming “Energy Independent,” if we are still importing almost 8 million barrels per day of oil?? While the Mainstream media and the Whitehouse continue with the energy independent mantra, the U.S. is still highly reliant upon a great deal of foreign oil. And, why would the U.S. import 8 million barrels of oil per day if its shale oil production has surged over the past decade? Full Story
In past writings I’ve attempted to show that the majority of the social problems experienced throughout the world — poverty, war, economic collapse, famine, hyperinflation, genocide, unilaterally broken agreements — can be traced to the dominant form of social organization under which we live: the State. Full Story
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