I have written at length elsewhere about how price inflation is going to be a growing problem, and how restricted the Fed is in responding to it. The danger is increasingly being recognised by the other commentators. Additionally, Trump’s planned economic stimulus is unfortunately timed, coming on top of an economy that is being successfully inflated by expanding bank credit. Instead of declining, gold has every reason to go considerably higher, measured in those continually depreciating fiat currencies. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 20 January, 2017
Gold has rebounded sharply higher in the past month, taking the early lead as 2017’s best-performing asset class. Normally such a big gold surge would require heavy gold-futures buying by speculators. But they’ve been missing in action, barely moving any capital into gold yet. Their collective bets on this metal remain very bearish. Since they are such a strong contrarian indicator, that’s a very-bullish omen for gold. Full Story
Bob Hoye of Institutional Advisors rejoins the show with positive insights on the PMs sector noting a nascent cyclical bull market in the PMs miners. Now that the first significant correction is passing, increased exposure to enticing gold / silver stocks is advisable. Adding to the appeal of PMs investments, increased tensions between member nations and the EU, such as France, Italy, Portugal and Spain. The discussion includes key research on the PMs sector from renowned investor, Doug Casey. Full Story
The performance of gold in 2017 depends largely on whether the Trump’s presidency will lead to lasting shift in the markets. What changes do we mean? Some analysts mention the reflation, others point out the ‘risk on’ sentiment and the ‘great rotation’ out of bonds and into stocks. Ray Dalio, the founder and chairman of Bridgewater, claims that the Trump’s victory was a turning point ending the period characterized by increasing globalization, free trade, and global connectedness; relatively innocuous fiscal policies; sluggish GDP growth, low inflation, and falling bond yields. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 20 January, 2017
Yet another day of gratuitous, grueling ups and downs, punctuated around mid-session by a swoon that had been nearly recouped by the time we went to press. If traders are thinking what I think they are thinking, they are expecting the stock market to find direction — possibly with a vengeance — once Trump’s inauguration is behind us. But suppose not? That would certainly seem paradoxical, since the transition from Obama to Trump arguably will represent the most radical political shift in American politics since the Civil War. Full Story
While the correction in precious metals was steep through Q4 of last year, we view them in hindsight as a successful test of the 2015 cycle lows and expect a full retracement and continuation of the young bull market in precious metals. Similar to the market environment headed into 2002, we expect favorable conditions in the currency and Treasury markets that would help propel precious metals to fresh cycle highs. Full Story
As I muse delightfully this afternoon over my quote terminal, I am enthralled to take note of silver's uncanny ability on Tuesday to actually listen to my cares and concerns and mount a 2.5% rally against a paltry 1.6% for gold into what has been the first of many of what I alluded to on the weekend—the insertion of a large Donald Trump boot directly into the very large Donald Trump mouth with his overnight comments about the USD being "too strong." The resultant crash in the USD has caused a rally in the T-bonds and a crash in stocks despite efforts being made everywhere to stick save stocks and cap gold and silver. Full Story
By: Rory Hall and Dave Kranzler - 19 January, 2017
Yesterday’s sell-off in gold occurred after the Comex floor had closed for the day. The period of time between when the Comex closes – 1:30 p.m. EST – and the CME’s Globex computer system trading closes for about an hour – 5 p.m. EST – is one of the least liquid trading periods of the 23 hour, 5-day trading week. It makes that period of time susceptible to manipulative price take-downs. Full Story
Markets, as most of us know, move on sentiment as much as they do hard realities. Thus someone the stature of the U.S. president talking down the dollar is very important to market psychology – not just for gold but all markets. The Trump administration’s position has already had an effect on the gold market. Though gold has reacted rather modestly to Janet Yellen’s announcement two days ago of more interest rate hikes this year, it is nothing when compared to the waterfall drops following past announcements on the subject of higher rates. Full Story
Gold prices bottomed in December 2015 unless you believe that deflation or a “black swan” event will crash all markets in the near future. The following chart makes a strong case for a gold bottom over a year ago. Ratios comparing gold to debt, the SPX, the DJIA and M2 also suggest that gold already hit a significant bottom. More importantly those ratios suggest that gold should rally substantially from here. Full Story
After touching the benchmark 20,000 level last month, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has spent the last five weeks in a tight, narrow trading range just under this level. Famed trader Jesse Livermore theorized in his pseudonymous book, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, that stocks are attracted to major round number levels. In the case of the Dow, the 20,000 level has generated more press and speculation among investors than any number since the formerly mythical 10,000 level was crossed in 1999. Clearly Dow 20,000 carries a tremendous psychological significance, even if it’s a simple case of self-fulfilling prophecy. Full Story
TO THE DEALERS’ EXPECTATIONS, WILL BE THE FORMATION OF A SIZABLE GOLD FUTURES MARKET. EACH OF THE DEALERS EXPRESS- ED THE BELIEF THAT THE FUTURES MARKET WOULD BE OF SIGNIFICANT PROPORTION AND PHYSICAL TRADING WOULD BE MINISCULE BY COMPARISON. ALSO EXPRESSED WAS THE EXPECTATION THAT LARGE VOLUME FUTURES DEALING WOULD CREATE A HIGHLY VOLATILE MARKET. IN TURN, THE VOLATILE PRICE MOVEMENTS WOULD DIMINISH THE INITIAL DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL HOLDING AND MOST LIKELY NEGATE LONG-TERM HOARDING BY U.S. CITIZENS. Full Story
Tonight I would like to update you on the US dollar as it plays such an important role in so many different markets. Getting the big trend right on the US dollar can help you see what areas are affected by the dollar to invest in. There are alot of areas that have an inverse correlation to the dollar, such as commodities and the precious metals in particular. Full Story
In yesterday’s alert, we wrote that the decline in the USD Index was likely a temporary phenomenon based on the investor’s needless overreaction – the USD reversed and more than erased this week’s decline. The metals’ reaction was also in tune with our expectations – they reversed. Was this just a one-day phenomenon and will gold rally based on its recent breakout above its 50-day moving average or can we expect more declines in the following days? Full Story
For 8 years the Fed has engaged in some of the most profligate monetary policy in history. The Fed has expanded its balance sheet by $4 trillion, employed ZIRP for seven years, and openly talked down the $USD anytime it broke above 98. Then, suddenly, after the November 8th Presidential election, the $USD spiked to above 100 and the Fed didn’t say a word. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 19 January, 2017
Silver futures sold off hard Wednesday after peaking around mid-session, but not before generating the most promising bullish impulse leg that we’ve seen in a long while. Notice in the chart that the modest rally, which lasted for just a couple of hours, exceeded two prior peaks stretching all the way back to mid-November. This implies that there’s some real power pushing silver higher, notwithstanding the whipsaw price action that concluded the day. It also implies that any weakness in the days or even weeks ahead is corrective and therefore a potential buying opportunity. We’ll be looking to use the lows labeled in green to create trade set-ups that can significantly reduce entry risk. Stay tuned to the chat room for further guidance in real time. Full Story
My grandson had quite a day at school. He had learned that the economy had been suffering from things called Panics, capital P, during the 19th century and had another big one in the early 20th century. He had been told that responsible, public-spirited men like J. P. Morgan had organized a central bank to prevent those Panics. He and other bankers finally got the government to go along with their idea and pass it into law in late 1913. And wouldn’t you know it — we’ve had no more Panics since then. Full Story
While most pension fund managers shy away from gold, they do so at their own risk and the risk of their pensioners. As a non-correlated asset to bonds, stocks, and other paper-based investments, precious metals are key to true diversification. It’s time for pension fund managers to break out of their Wall Street groupthink and include a meaningful allocation to physical gold and silver bullion for protection against inflation and financial turmoil. Full Story
For the last few years, even with the U.S. trying and struggling to "play the game", the debt structure had already begun to slow and roll over. Now with Mr. Trump at the helm, it looks like the U.S. will no longer play the game. Simply put, "game over" will be rapidly seen and understood as inevitable where no amount of hope will trump "policy" nor Mother Nature! The credit contraction is here and now, if you know this and understand what it means, then you know where it will all end. Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital - 18 January, 2017
There is much we don't know about how the Trump presidency will play out. Will the Wall get built? Who will pay for it? Will it have at least some fencing? Will repeal and replace happen at exactly the same time? Will Trump throw a ceremonial switch? Will there be a Trump National Golf Course in Sochi? It's anyone's guess. But of one thing we can be fairly certain. President Trump is very likely to preside over the largest expansion of Federal budget deficits in our history. Trump has built his companies with debt and I'm sure he thinks he can do the same with the country. His annual budget deficits are likely going to be huge. This development will make a greater impact on the investment landscape than most on Wall Street can imagine. Full Story
One of the primary themes that we've been repeating is that 2017 is going to be a wildly unpredictable year. To that end, today we begin what might be a wildly unpredictable week. Buckle up. So, let's see. What are some of the primary tenets of the heavily-promoted "Generally Accepted Narrative"? Full Story
The global elite are meeting this week in DAVOS for the annual World Economic Forum. Apparently, we, the citizens of the world, aren’t smart enough to determine our own economic future and the global elite have taken it upon themselves to meet annually in order to determine what is in our best interest. Full Story
Gold has tagged the 38% Fibonacci retracement of the previous intermediate cycle. This is the most likely spot for gold to drop into a half cycle low if it’s going to produce one. Dips are buying opportunities in the advancing phase of an intermediate cycle. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 18 January, 2017
The Silver Market will experience a significant trend change in the future due the unraveling of the paper markets. Already we are witnessing a lot of political turmoil and havoc as President-elect Donald Trump gets ready to take over the White House in the next few days. It’s also logical to assume the policy changes President-elect Trump wants to make will cause serious ramifications to the highly leveraged debt-based fiat monetary system… whether he realizes it or not. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 18 January, 2017
GATA long has maintained that the "strong-dollar policy" was mainly gold price suppression, implemented largely through the gold carry trade devised by President Clinton's treasury secretary, former Goldman Sachs Chairman Robert Rubin, an enterprise in which Western central banks "leased" gold to investment banks at negligible interest rates and encouraged them to sell the metal and invest the proceeds in U.S. government bonds paying closer to 5 percent. Full Story
It really is amazing how much difference a few weeks can have on perspectives in the market. Back in mid-December, many were writing me off for looking up in the market, as I stood quite lonely amongst the bearish masses while maintaining one of the very few bullish perspectives in the market. In fact, not only was I maintaining a bullish bias, I even suggested that the GDX was on the cusp of an imminent 10%+ move. Since that time, not only did we see the expected 10% move, we have risen 26% off the lows in the GDX. Full Story
That includes gold. As a friend recently reminded me, China’s official gold holdings account for only 2 percent of its foreign reserves. Two percent! That’s remarkably low, far lower than most large economies. (In the U.S., it’s around 75 percent, according to the World Gold Council.) China is obviously interested in supporting its currency, and since it sold off quite a lot of U.S. Treasuries in the past year—Japan is now the top holder of U.S. government debt—it will likely need to substantially build up its gold reserves. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 18 January, 2017
Within the next day or two we should have more evidence to tell us whether the rally begun in late December is the real deal. If bulls have any moxie, they’ll push this vehicle above the 1223.50 peak (see inset) without much ado. Still better would be an unpaused thrust exceeding the second, 1236.10. Our rule for bull markets is that each completed upthrust should pierce an old high or a layer of supply. The effect is to refresh the bullish energy of the daily and intraday charts. That’s the least we should expect of a rally if we are to presume it has sufficient energy to continue. Full Story
By: Rory Hall and Dave Kranzler - 17 January, 2017
On the flip-side of this is gold, which has rallied nearly 6% since late December, and silver, which has rallied 7.8% since its end of December low. The fundamental factors driving gold vs. the dollar would be the continued surge in U.S. Treasury debt issuance; which has doubled in size over the last eight years, contracting economic activity notwithstanding the plethora of fake economic reports; a rapidly expanding Government spending deficit; and a rapidly expanding trade deficit. Full Story
Rate hikes tend to be good for gold, and even better for gold stocks. Since Janet Yellen hiked rates in December, gold has rallied almost $90. That’s good news, but the great news is that the US central bank plans more rate hikes this year. Gold has a rough historical tendency to decline ahead of rate hikes, and rally strongly after they happen. Full Story
It’s the rare day I wake up to see news so powerfully Precious Metal bullish – regarding its short and long-term implications – I can barely contain myself. The last such event was the BrExit – which set into motion the inevitable collapse of the European Union and Euro currency as we know it. Which, seven months later, appears more certain than ever – and perhaps, if this year’s Dutch, French, German, Italian, and Catalonian elections and legislative actions trend in the direction I anticipate, imminent. Which I assure you, last night’s news will only hasten further. Full Story
Everybody is going to be caught on the wrong side of this market ad sentiment is excessively bullish. The dollar is going to be due for a 3 year cycle low sometime in 2017. Full Story
As mentioned in the introduction, Sentiment and COT reports show very little change of late, even as gold begins to complete the initial thrust in this young Investor Cycle. With gold back over the 10-week moving average, and the technicals looking fantastic, all of my indicators here are in a significantly bullish alignment. Therefore, always appreciating that bear market rallies can be deceiving, I still believe there is plenty of room above for gold to allow for a significant rally. Full Story
Gold surged above $1,200 an ounce this week on the back of President-elect Trump’s press conference which provided little detail regarding any economic stimulus plans, reports Bloomberg. “Expectations are so high that we think there are greater chances that traders may feel that they did not get what they bargained for,” Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at Think Markets said. “Under such a scenario, we could see gold continue its rally.” Full Story
By: Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT, MFTA - 17 January, 2017
Gold and Gold stocks have rallied as expected and the consolidation in the miners in recent days looks bullish. GDX and GDXJ have digested the recent recovery quite well as Gold is testing resistance around $1200/oz. While the price action portends to more gains so does the breadth in the miners as well as short-term structure in the US$ index and bond yields. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 17 January, 2017
The main real reason is to maximise tax revenue. If all transactions are carried out electronically via the banking system then every transaction can be monitored, making it more difficult to avoid tax. In other words, the main reason that governments are very keen to eliminate physical cash is that by doing so they increase the amount of money flowing into government coffers. Unless you believe that the government generally uses resources more efficiently than the private sector you must acknowledge that this would result in a weaker rather than a stronger economy. Full Story
It is my privilege now to bring in Keith Neumeyer, founder and CEO of First Majestic Silver Corp, one of the top silver mining companies in the world. Keith has an extensive background in the resource and finance sectors and has also been an outspoken voice about the manipulation that has been occurring in the futures market pricing of silver. Full Story
When their Anointed One lost the election, big television news networks and primary newspapers coined the term “fake news” because they were angry at alternative media for eroding deep into their domain. It was time to expose these fakers because audiences were fleeing to alternatives to establishment media as certainly as they fled to alternatives to establishment politicians. Full Story
Donald Trump is elected President of the United States of America last year on a populist platform and the dollar($) takes off like it’s nobody’s business on the sales pitch America is back in business with a true business man at the helm. Right-wingers would point out Trump’s failures throughout the years in an effort to dispel this belief, however in fact his track record is impressive, with only four bankruptcies out of some 400 incorporations. Full Story
Peter Eliades of Stockmarket Cycles, returns with a warning for US equities investors. Despite the recent advance, his technical cycles work predicts a possible market peak. According to economist Dr. Laurence Kotlikoff, the nation is facing runaway prices that could send the PMs skyward. With over $200 trillion in total debt, more than twice as severe as bankrupt Detroit - policymakers may find salvaging the system challenging. Full Story
The election of Donald Trump sparked a rally in the broad stockmarket which has continued up to the present, and according to the laws of reverse (inverse) logic that rule the markets, his inauguration as President is likely to trigger a swoon, and as we will shortly see, there are other compelling technical reasons for the market to drop back soon, and it is worth noting that selling might start kicking in before the inauguration. Full Story
Crush The Street’s Kenneth Ameduri invited to discuss why I believe the current stock market is the most overvalued in history. We also chatted about the movement by western Governments to a digital currency system and, of course, the precious metals market. It’s my view that the pullback in the precious metals sector that began in late July was over by the end of December. I also believe that there’s good probability that the next move in the sector will be more powerful than the 2016 move. Full Story
Last month, we noted that there could be a trend change in progress. Not only are the prices of the metals rising (which is just a mirror-image of the dollar falling, from 27.6 milligrams of gold just before Christmas to currently under 26mg). But the scarcity of gold as we measure it, using the spread between the price of gold in the spot and futures markets, has been rising. Full Story
I believe what we are seeing in price movement is simply a bull trap. A repetitive trap to ensure as many investors as possible are gathered on one side before the slaughter. I suspect over the next few trading sessions gold will struggle at the 50 DMA before finally giving up and plunging. The gold bulls might be successful at overtaking the 50 DMA but even that will be short lived. To change my outlook I would have to see gold take out $1215 area, retest the 50 DMA, and move higher but I don’t believe that is likely not withstanding a major world event. In that case all bets are off. Good luck trading and don’t be fodder for the market! Full Story
Forecasting the New Year is a curious tradition. Much evidence suggests that no one does it both accurately and consistently, yet everyone keeps trying. Why is this? In some ways, I think it’s just entertainment. You might compare our prognosticating to what happens with NFL football. For weeks before the Super Bowl, we devoted fans will spend hours speculating on the game’s every detail. We’ll dissect the rosters, talk about each team’s strengths and weaknesses, debate game plans, and so on. Is any of this ritual necessary or useful? No, but it extends the experience and we enjoy it. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 16 January, 2017
While many Americans have been hornswoggled to believe President-elect Trump is going to make the United States great again, are you prepared for the greatest FINANCIAL ENEMA in history? Of course not. That is why we continue to see precious metals sentiment fall further into the cesspool. I have to laugh at how much the gold inventories at the GLD ETF have declined in less than three months. Since October 20th, 2016, the GLD has shed 17% of its supposed gold holdings. No, I don’t care if the gold is really there. It’s probably not, but that isn’t the important thing to focus on now. It’s the sentiment. Full Story
I have struggled to understand George Soros because he is a character riddled with contradiction. His push to break down borders by increasing immigration all over the world is undermining his desire to establish a unified Europe and a unified world. By pushing too hard, too fast, he’s creating obvious pushback. So, I decided to work on an article that would help me get a little better sense of what drives him. Full Story
And this, remember, is happening at the tail end of a 30-year bull market in bonds and a 7-year bull market in stocks, which took the main asset classes held by pension funds to record valuation levels. So the rubber truly meets the road during the next recession when stocks will, if history is a reliable guide, drop by 20% or more. The current gaps in thousands of pension funds will become gaping holes, and the experience of Teamsters and Dallas cops will be replicated across the country. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 16 January, 2017
As we’ve explained in the past, leverage is bullish for asset prices as long as it is increasing, regardless of how far into ‘nosebleed territory’ it happens to be. It’s only after market participants begin to scale back their collective leverage that asset prices come under substantial and sustained pressure. For example, it was a few months AFTER leverage (as indicated by the level of NYSE margin debt) stopped expanding and started to contract that major stock-market peaks occurred in 2000 and 2007. Full Story
Gold gained 1.94% this past week and has been acting fine. That said, I don’t see it really moving anywhere fast with only a couple weeks left of this current influx of Chinese buying. We may see this move extend to the $1,240 resistance level but likely not above. Silver rose 1.49% and is finding resistance at $17 now. We may see silver breach $17 and move to $17.50 over the next couple of weeks but I’m not looking for real strength to take hold until the early spring. Full Story
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