The gold stocks are trading around their highs but have failed to breakout this August. Is that due to the dog days of summer, the upcoming Fed conference or something else? We aren’t sure and don’t think it matters a great deal anyway. With that said, let’s delve into the current technicals. The weekly candle charts of GDXJ (top) and GDX (below) are shown below. The miners have remained strong but are struggling to break higher here during the dog days of summer. GDXJ is set to close around $50 and GDX around $30. The weekly charts show strong support at GDXJ $44 and GDX $27. Call that about 10% lower. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 19 August, 2016
The gold miners’ stocks have skyrocketed this year as investors started returning to this long-abandoned sector. Many have tripled, quadrupled, or even quintupled since mid-January alone! But are such epic gains fundamentally justified? Much insight into this crucial question for investors can be gleaned from the gold miners’ latest quarterly financial and operational results. Their Q2 reports just finished coming in. Full Story
To be honest, we’re not sure at this point which ultimately will be more painful: falling down the well eight years back or posturing Shakespeare every month or so - to hike or to not hike us out. Perhaps, ‘tis nobler in the mind to suffer… than take arms against a sea of troubles? Suffer we have, although the truth has always been that the markets return from the trough would likely be a painfully long process, despite conventional wisdom that looked towards more contemporary tightening cycles for example. Full Story
Popular media outlets are just too bullish, and they are turning bullish after the market has surged to new highs; from a contrarian perspective, this is a negative development. The trend in all the indices is up, so the longer term outlook is still bullish. Forget Dow 20,000 for now; the Dow is more likely to trade lower than surging to new highs. Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital - 19 August, 2016
Economics is far simpler than most in academics or government would have you believe. To make accurate predictions all you really need is an honest appreciation of the self-interest that is at the heart of free market transactions and an ability to understand how regulations that attempt to "correct" these realities don't work. This is certainly the case with the completely predictable slow-motion train wrecks that are the signature U.S. domestic policy experiments of the last eight years: Obamacare and Federal Reserve stimulus. Full Story
But we should spare a thought for the difficulties policy-makers now face. So what would you do if you were on the Open Markets Committee? Repeatedly kicking that can has so far succeeded, but economic conditions are changing all the time, throwing up new challenges. The next chart dramatically exposes the one issue that historically would have determined interest rate policy in advance, but is being widely ignored, even by the FOMC. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 19 August, 2016
The most popular story used these days to explain why the US equity bull market is bound to continue despite high valuations is often called “TINA”, which stands for “There Is No Alternative”. The belief is that with interest rates near zero and likely to remain there for a long time to come it is reasonable to pay what would otherwise be considered an extremely high price for almost any stock that offers a dividend yield. There is simply no alternative! Full Story
I realize Gomer Pyle was way before the time of much of my reading audience, but for the last few weeks I’ve been hearing him in my head as not only NFTRH, but now the wider financial media get on the idea that things are not as bad as had been generally perceived going into the hype fest known as Brexit. Most recently, a writer who always keeps an even keel, Chris Ciovacco, has summarized the situation nicely (as posted at Biiwii). Full Story
Since 2014 I’ve been investigating the alleged audits of the US official gold reserves. Of course my goal is to figure out if these audits are credible, or if they’re invented by the US government to silence the people that think gold has any value and forms the very material basis for a well-functioning monetary system. Full Story
The free world continues to spin out of control. Everyday we are hearing more and more news that would typically tank markets and make people's hair recede three or four inches in fear. Yet, it's not happening yet in this upside down world. In fact the markets have never been better and continue to experience new highs. Happy days right? Wrong, as usual - this is all a farce. Full Story
We know why Britons voted to leave the EU and what the UK’s options outside the EU are. Now, let’s analyze how Brexit could affect the gold market. We covered this topic in the latest edition of the Market Overview, as well as the daily updates of the Gold News Monitor, but today we will examine how the shiny metal performed during the past disintegrations of economic unions. Full Story
Since before recorded human history, the people of India have had an insatiable appetite for gold, treasuring it not only for its flawless natural beauty and religious significance but also as a superb store of value. This tradition carries on today, with India’s demand for gold jewelry in 2015 reaching more than 668 tonnes, nearly a third of total global demand and second in size only to China. Full Story
In other words, if you think China’s response to collapsing trade data was destabilizing – and ultimately, a massive failure – just wait until Japan pulls out its “nuclear option” in the coming months. Or perhaps, weeks, given that the BOJ has already telegraphed a dovish plan-of-action for its upcoming September 21st meeting. Which frankly, has the potential to “re-define” the concept of “PM bullish, everything-else-bearish.” Which is why, more vehemently than ever, I urge you to act while you still can, as this Fall promises to be an historically dangerous one, politically, economically, and monetarily. Full Story
Gold and silver mining stocks have embarked on a rally this year that could prove to be one for the record books. The leading exchange traded fund for the sector, VanEck Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE:GDX), shows an incredible 125% year-to-date gain. That far out-surpasses the 27% and 44% advances of gold and silver spot prices, respectively. What does the mining stock run-up suggest about the fundamentals for the actual mined product, physical gold and silver? Full Story
The Arizona House of Representatives has convened an Ad Hoc Committee on Gold Bonds. The purpose is to explore if and how the state could sell a gold bond. This is an exciting development, as the issuance of a gold bond would be a major step towards a working gold standard. Yours truly is a member of the committee. At the first meeting, I gave a proposal for how a gold bond could work to the benefit of the state and the people. Full Story
Picture if you will the Fed governors and their midget boss sitting around a long mahogany table, each in his best Emmett Kelly pastiche: bulbous red noses, scraggly mops of rust-colored hair, size 36 shoes, kayak-sized white lips framed by five o’clock shadow that looks to have been sprouted from a rat’s ass. That’s how I would suggest visualizing the Open Market Committee if you’ve struggled to understand Fed ‘policy’. Full Story
In the Gold Survey 2016 report by GFMS that covers the global gold market for calendar year 2015 Chinese gold consumption was assessed at 867 tonnes. As Chinese wholesale demand, measured by withdrawals from Shanghai Gold Exchange designated vaults, accounted for 2,596 tonnes in 2015 the difference reached an extraordinary peak for the year. In an attempt to explain the 1,729 tonne gap GFMS presents three brand new (misleading) arguments in the Gold Survey 2016 and reused one old argument, while it abandoned five arguments previously put forward in Gold Survey reports and by GFMS employees at forums. Full Story
I don't know about you, but ole Turd is sure getting sick and tired of these FOMC statements being some sort of be-all-end-all for the "markets". And with gold UP nearly $300 or 30% since The Fed raised the Fed Funds rate back in December, maybe we should all be pulling for higher rates anyway? But, man, this crap is getting old. The FOMC rolls out a statement (the Fedlines) at the conclusion of each meeting and then releases the actual minutes of the meeting three weeks later. First of all, why the delay? Full Story
Leading Wall Street technician, Ralph Acampora of Altaira Wealth Management returns with his technical view on the markets. His outlook on the PMs metals is positive; gold could advance above $1,400 per ounce. Nearly 50 years ago, Stevenson and Bear (1970) outlined an alternative to the EMH; sometimes display years of long-memory (trends). Full Story
We started following this US dollar index about a year or so ago which has a more equal weighting of different currencies than the $USD. Even though I don’t post it much this Alternative US dollar index has some very interesting Chartology on it which may be giving us an important clue as to the intentions of the Dollar. Full Story
This past week certainly saw a lot of action in the metals, but we did not see any real movement by the time we closed the week. In fact, gold and silver ended near where they began for the week, whereas GDX did have a little upside progress on the week. And, after each consolidation we have experienced during 2016, voices are raised about us topping. Many believe we have come too far, too fast. However, each consolidation we have seen throughout the year has only led us to higher prices. So, in truth, I cannot accept the premise that the market is topping unless some amount of upper support is broken. Full Story
A crucial sentence from the first article: “Equity buybacks last week totaled just $2.6 billion, while record highs in U.S. stocks triggered an increase in new equity offerings.” So not only are companies buying fewer shares, they, along with their insiders, are starting to sell. The result of this change in the supply/demand calculus should, other things being equal, be lower share prices. Which would vindicate the lengthening list of heavy hitters (Gross, Soros, Icahn) who have gone bearish lately. Full Story
Oil sliced right through the intermediate down trend line today on its first try, confirming that the intermediate cycle low is complete. I don’t expect the next intermediate degree top for at least another 12-16 weeks. The previous intermediate cycle rallied 17 weeks before topping. Full Story
I have watched every tick of the Precious Metals market for 14½ years, since the fateful day in May 2002 when I bought my first 100 shares of Newmont Mining, en route to putting essentially all of my liquid assets into the sector. Frankly, the 1% position I have taken in Bitcoin is as exciting as any development in my investment career – as until Bitcoin, I have not come across any asset class since 2002 worth investing in. And by investing, I mean the classical definition of such, not today’s bastardized concept of speculating in overvalued assets based on the expectation of what Central banks and government manipulation operatives might do. To borrow from Richard Russell’s lingo, I take big positions in primary trends I deem to have extremely high return/risk profiles. And the more confident I am in such a trend, the more I invest. Hence, my 1% position in Bitcoin, versus 90% in physical Precious Metals. Full Story
Gold stocks are in a fabulous uptrend channel. Note the inverse HS bull continuation pattern now in play. A fresh rally towards $37 looks like it will be the next significant price movement for GDX. There is not much retail participation in Western stock markets, or in gold stocks. I believe that’s because most investors have suffered through what is really a 15 to 20 year rolling super crisis. Many citizens are working from paycheck to paycheck, and have multiple part-time jobs. They don’t have much capital for investing. This is a different situation from past markets where analysts used the arrival of the public to signal a “top phase” for a market. Full Story
In essence, the Social Security funds have already been spent and the supposed $2.7 trillion fund balance is nothing but a phantom debt issued by the Treasury. Further, the Social Security system assumes that phantom debt will accrue phantom interest earnings, but since neither exists, the US government must borrow even more to cover the deficit between Social Security taxes and payouts. Which will it be – default or hyperinflation? Full Story
On a firmly rising gold price the UK is one of the largest net importers of gold in 2016. The gold price went up 25 % from $1,061.5 dollars per troy ounce on January 1 to $1,325.8 on June 31. Over this period the UK net imported 583 tonnes and GLD inventory mushroomed by 308 tonnes. Full Story
Today is the 45th anniversary of that fateful day when the last vestiges of any kind of gold standard for our currency were cut by President Nixon. Today's program will take a look at gold 45 years later, with special guest Parker Vogt of Camino Coin. Full Story
Last Friday marked one week since the start of the Rio de Janeiro Olympics, and it’s been nothing short of amazing. Michael Phelps, whose name should forevermore be synonymous with the Olympics, won his 22nd overall gold medal. He also was awarded his 13th individual gold, effectively breaking a record last set in 152 B.C. by legendary runner Leonidas of Rhodes. Full Story
You may not know this, or simply prefer to ignore the reality, but America, as you know, is changing rapidly – morphing into a ‘banana republic’ before your very eyes. No? Well let’s take a look at the definition of the term and see if it applies. According to Wikipedia, a banana republic “ typically has stratified social classes, including a large, impoverished working class and a ruling plutocracy of business, political, and military elites. [1]” Full Story
Regular readers of this publication will be familiar with my frequent comments that all countries have a shelf-life – that they experience a slow rise, typified by a strong work ethic and a free-market philosophy, which results in a highly productive country. That productivity later results in a high level of sympathy for the disadvantaged, which political leaders turn into a justification for government largesse. That, in turn, results in a population that grows complacent and, eventually apathetic, culminating in a decline into totalitarianism. Full Story
The best performing precious metal for the week was gold, holding in with a 1 basis point drop. According to the World Gold Council, global gold demand in the second quarter increased 15 percent due to a 141 percent rise in investment demand. The Royal Mint also commented on a “surge” in demand, specifically when the Bank of England cut rates – during that week the Mint saw a 25-percent increase in transactions on its bullion website, reports BBC. The Mint’s “signature gold” has also allowed buyers to purchase fractions of gold bars, causing sales to jump 140 percent. Full Story
We have already figured out that, faced with the choice between doing “helicopter money” and allowing a deflationary implosion to occur, those in power will elect the former, because it buys them more time by keeping the system limping along for longer, and we have now arrived at the stage where it will be one or other. The market has already figured it out too, which is why gold and silver have started a new bullmarket. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 15 August, 2016
Now, speculation in “paper gold” is both an effect of the gold price and an important short-term driver of the gold price. It is therefore fair to say that although changes in GLD’s gold inventory don’t cause anything, they often reflect changes in speculative sentiment that at least on a short-term basis do have a significant influence on the gold price. At the same time it is also fair to say that the influence of speculative buying/selling in the futures market is vastly greater (probably at least an order of magnitude greater) than the influence of speculative buying/selling of GLD shares. Full Story
This Chinese Gold Market infographic guides you through the largest physical gold trading market in the world, China. An impressive 16,000 tonnes of gold are held within China's borders. Did you know that the Chinese wholesale demand for physical gold was an astounding 2,596 metric tonnes in 2015? This was supplied by China mining more gold than any other country in the world as well as importing more gold than any other country. Full Story
I don’t often agree with Keynes, but he is the most quotable of all major economists. The above sentence was one of his best. He was right about defunct economists. Of course, he was talking about all those other defunct economists who no longer kept up with his new and improved way of thinking about all things economic. Now his quip comes back to haunt his legacy and his followers. Full Story
When the government expelled gold from the monetary system, it took away gold’s utility. Gold does not pay interest today. That’s why most people want nothing to do with it. And it’s also why the gold community is so focused on the price of the metal. Other than protect you from the End Of The World As We Know It, gold is a chip for betting in the speculation casinos. Full Story
Banks are shrinking around the world – as are pension funds and insurance companies and everyone else who depends on positive fixed income returns. National economies aren’t growing, while national debt burdens continue to soar. Staying the course in this case means drifting over the falls. So the next round of experiments will probably feature bigger deficits and more aggressive public hand-outs. Which – since these have already been tried and failed – doesn’t give much hope for the future. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 14 August, 2016
As the precious metals prices surged this year, so did U.S. petroleum inventories. While rising gold and silver prices are a positive sign for the precious metals industry, the surging U.S. petroleum stocks are extremely negative. However, the prices of the metals and energy are currently not trading based on the fundamental values. Full Story
After 15 years of “each day worse than the next” market manipulation – much of which, is done overtly – the thing that amazes me most is how few people care. Sure, hundreds of millions of Americans – and billions of foreigners – have neither the resources, intelligence, nor motivation to question authority; much less, in the opaque world of international finance. And quite obviously, one of human nature’s greatest flaws is the inability – or desire – to fight the consensus. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 14 August, 2016
For years GATA's premise has been that this market rigging could be defeated if it was documented, exposed, and publicized well enough. But while many people in the monetary metals industry have come to understand what is happening, few have acknowledged it in public. And while the documentation has been presented and explained to many financial news organizations, none in the mainstream have dared to pursue it seriously. Full Story
It is the dog days of summer. The metals are trading below their recent highs while the miners continue to be on the cusp of their next leg higher. In any event we remain bullish as we expect the next big move to be higher not lower. One reason, among many is Gold remains strong against foreign currencies and that often is a leading indicator for the sector at large. This is something we track often and we wanted to provide an update during the slowest period of the year. Full Story
I’m starting to see a lot of analysts now calling for gold to drop down into a bottom in October. It’s amazing how these guys can consistently get this wrong over and over again. Gold isn’t topping. Gold has been bouncing around in a range for the last 5 weeks giving the 200 day moving average time to catch up to price. Gold won’t top until the dollar cycle bottoms, and that intermediate cycle isn’t due to bottom until late September or early October. Full Story
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