By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 19 May, 2017
The junior gold miners’ stocks suffered a serious thrashing between mid-April and early May. Relentless heavy selling blasted many back down near deep mid-December lows, leaving sentiment in tatters. But traders distracted by weak technicals need to keep their eyes on the fundamental ball. The gold juniors just finished their Q1 earnings season, which was solid. Their low stock prices are disconnected from reality. Full Story
The greatest strength of a truly free market economy, where money is sound and does not corrupt prices, is the absence of cyclical action. With sound money, and consumers deciding for themselves their wants and satisfactions, having to choose between this or that instead of deploying unbacked credit to have this and that, there can be no cycle of credit, and no credit-driven business cycles. Full Story
The Wannacry malware that hit like a global mega-bomb, showed everyone how vulnerable we are to a global cyber attack. Billed as “one of the largest global ransomware attacks the cyber community has ever seen,” the infection started in London and then emerged almost instantly in Seattle, New York, and Tokyo. Within ten minutes, the coordinated attack became epidemic throughout the world, covering the better part of every continent but Antarctica. By the end of one day, the malware had infected over 200,000 computers in 150 nations, encrypting all their data and locking the users out. Full Story
Economist Professor Laurence Kotlikoff, returns with a new FREE book: You're Hired! With over $220 in national debt, if 10% of the GDP were directed to paying of the debt, it would still require an infinite number of years. Dr. Kotlikoff admonishes policymakers for ignoring the warning of the national founders, not to burden the young with debt, to the benefit of retirees. Officials are determined to continue money printing ways, ultimately culminating with inflation and higher PMs prices. Full Story
Based on that the possible exhaustion gap in play I’m going to jump back in and take an initial small position in the Kamikaze stocks. For most investors that’s almost an impossible thing to do, sell out one day and buy back in the next. Yesterday was called, shaking the bush day, to get the shorts to cover with what now looks like a strong backtest in place. Again this trade is not for everyone as the volatility is extreme in both directions. Only risk capital is used trading the Kamikaze stocks JNUG JDST DSLV and DGLD. Full Story
In the previous editions of the Market Overview, we wrote about the reflation trade. We analyzed the important signals of the uptick in economic activity and inflation all over the world, arguing that the upcoming reflation does not look encouraging for the gold bulls. However, we now see signs that reflation is weakening. What happened and what are the implications for the gold market? Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 19 May, 2017
The coming GREAT DEFLATION will impact the value of Gold and the Dollar much differently than what most analysts are forecasting. Unfortunately, most analysts do not understand the true underlying value of gold or the U.S. Dollar, because they base their forecasts on information that is inaccurate, flawed or imprecise. Full Story
Bob Hoye’s Pivotal Events, published every Thursday, is consistently one of the most insightful and well-written newsletters in the financial world — a great read that could be compared in quality only to Grant’s Interest Rate Observer. Bob’s latest dispatch suggests that the banking sector is one of several key areas of the U.S. economy that could lead the next major stock-market decline. If so, the chart of the Bank Stock Index provides good reason for investors to worry. Full Story
The Deep State and the liberal elites have never accepted Trump as president, despite him being democratically elected, and have been trying to undermine and discredit him since he came to office, a job that is made easier by them controlling most of the media. They are pushing for impeachment on trumped up (no pun intended) charges, and while the chances of this succeeding look rather slim, if they do there will be a lot of angry people out there and even more polarization that is likely to lead to widespread rioting and social unrest. Full Story
Last year, the Federal Register—the U.S. government’s depository of rules and regulations—hit an all-time high of 81,640 pages. Among the industries that bear the greatest regulatory oversight is financials, which has seen a disproportionate amount of scrutiny in recent years, especially following the 9/11 attacks and subprime mortgage crisis. Full Story
Summing up, the outlook for the precious metals market remains bearish and the very weak reaction to the USD’s daily slide serves as a bearish sign even though the latter may appear as something bullish for PMs. Silver’s reversal on big volume and major (unconfirmed, but still) breakdown in the price of palladium serve as additional bearish confirmations. Full Story
Silver prices are rising along the bottom of a 20 year log scale trend channel (shown later). There are no guarantees in a manipulated paper market, such as COMEX silver, but it is possible that silver prices will collapse further, or more likely, move substantially higher, sooner rather than later. Silver prices COULD fall from their current level of $16 – $17 to under $10. Full Story
Dr. Paul Wilmott from the quantitative finance website, Wilmott.com returns with comments on his magnum opus, endorsed by the legendary Nassim Taleb. The duo engage in an enthralling discussion on the true nature of financial risk versus the expected risk predicted by traditional econometric models. The guest and host concur, the financial field is deluding itself with seemingly solid theories that simply do not account for the reality of black-swan events. Full Story
I ask how could a commodity or any product that is bought and sold on planet earth be 66% cheaper than in 1980. The evidence above demonstrates how that is possible. The only remaining question is – why is silver the kryptonite to the banking and financial system? Gold, while the market has been proven to be rigged as well, has at least been able to climb higher than in 1980. The current global “price” of gold does not reflect it’s true value, however, it is still higher than 37 years ago. Silver, not so much. Full Story
The stock market has not been allowed to correct naturally in recent weeks. As a result, bullish sentiment was not cleansed and we have not been able to generate a sustained breakout. What this has done is compress the selling into a very short time frame. Full Story
The SPX has continued its rally towards the ideal 2410SPX region this past week that we presented to you a month ago. And, it seems we still have a few squiggles to the upside left before this pattern is completed, and then tested. Those with a short bias in this market have not fared very well. At each and every twist and turn, the market has proved its bullish intent, and continues to confirm our expectations that our long-term target of 2537-2611SPX will be met, if not even possibly exceed by next year. Full Story
In 2016, withdrawals of gold from the Shanghai Gold Exchange totalled 1970 tonnes, the 4th highest annual total on record. This was 24% less than SGE gold withdrawals recorded in 2015, which reached a cumulative 2596 tonnes (See Koos Jansen’s 6 January 2017 blog at BullionStar “How The West Has Been Selling Gold Into A Black Hole” for more details of the 2016 withdrawals). Full Story
Those increasingly common predictions of bitcoin going to $20,000 or more are premised on the fact that its algorithm limits its supply. There are many more ounces of gold, for instance, than there are bitcoins, which implies that bitcoin should ultimately trade at a (possibly substantial) multiple of gold’s price. But if bitcoin is just one of many cryptocurrencies in circulation, it makes sense to consider their aggregate supply – and the growth rate of that supply. Which is where it gets scary. Full Story
I am rushing this to you ahead of publication schedule as the message is both urgent and important. The great risk to the world’s economic system is that of a credit contraction. Western and Asian economies are ill equipped to absorb economic shocks as a result of their level of debt saturation. No one knows where such a shock will come from, but we have postulated China or even Canada. Full Story
Without fail, each and every time the metals have dropped since bottoming over a year ago, many panic and proclaim the bear market to have returned. Moreover, many have looked to the USD as their guide to what the metals will do, and are completely befuddled when the dollar trades in tandem with the metals, as we have seen for almost two months. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 17 May, 2017
The documents from the Bank of England's archive published today by gold researcher Ronan Manly showing an attempt by central bankers in 1979 to create a second "gold pool" to control the price of the monetary metal, may be most important because, while they are 37 years old, they show the central bankers conspiring against the monetary metal long after it was officially removed from the international financial system. Full Story
For the last five years, crude oil has been behaving a little differently than it has in the past. At least that’s the takeaway from the chart below, based on the Moore Research Center’s analysis of oil’s seasonal trading patterns. Note that the index on the left measures the greatest historical tendency for the asset to make a seasonal high (100) or low (0) at a given time. Full Story
We added to our call position Tuesday when VXX bottomed two ticks off a potentially important downside target at 13.57 that we’d been using for the last week or so to stay out of trouble. This allowed any subscriber who took the trade to buy four June 2nd 13.5 calls two cents above their intraday low of 0.48. We’ll have the wind at our backs if stocks continue to fall overnight, so I’ll suggest offering half (i.e., two calls, or a multiple thereof) of the position to close for 1.00 – twice what we paid — good-till-canceled. Full Story
Featured is a chart that compares the EURO(DM) to the US dollar. When the trend is rising, it means the Euro is stronger than the US dollar and vice versa. History tells us that gold has a tail wind when the trend here is upward bound, and a head-wind when the trend in this index is falling. Please notice the upside breakout in 2002 from a multi-year triangle. It was at this time that gold began its rise from $260.00 to $1,925.00. Now notice a similar pattern (a falling wedge), developing on the right. Full Story
A new gold futures contract is being introduced by the Hong Kong Futures Exchange (two contracts actually). The two contracts will be physically settled $US and CNH (offshore renminbi) gold futures contracts. The key to this contract is that it requires physical settlement of the underlying gold, which is a 1 kilo gold bar. Full Story
The dollar has finally broken below its intermediate cycle trend. Last year the yearly cycle low occurred in early May. The most recent daily cycles have been running 35 – 40 days. The current daily cycle is on day 35. Full Story
A central bank Gold Pool which many people will be familiar with operated in the gold market between November 1961 and March 1968. That Gold Pool was known as the London Gold Pool. This article is not about the 1961-1968 London Gold Pool. This article is about collusive central bank discussions relating to an entirely different and more recent central bank Gold Pool arrangement. These discussions about a second Gold Pool began in late 1979, i.e. more than 11 years after the London Gold Pool had been abandoned. This article is Part 1 of a 2 part series. Part 2 will be published shortly. Full Story
Silver bugs may have been disappointed by the recent decline but this is a key accumulation area for investors who want to be part of the next big rally in a profitable way. Many analysts are frustrated with the performance of silver relative to gold. Those days of frustration will end as money velocity stages a dramatic reversal to the upside, but not before that happens. Full Story
For two weeks straight “somebody” was pinning stocks by ramping the $USD/ Yen pair. You can see the tight correlation between the two in the chart below. This resulted in a one in 125 years event: a 10-day period in which stocks didn’t move more than 0.2%. And we’ve even had confirmation now that the last 15 days have seen the LEAST movement in stocks in history. Full Story
I have been reading a fascinating book called Deep Survival by Laurence Gonzales, recommended here at TFMR (thank you, Turdville) that is ostensibly a deep dive into why some people, and really certain types of people who show repeating patterns of behaviors and attitudes, repeatedly survive in dangerous, seemingly impossible life-threatening situations while other people, who do the opposite and display opposite behaviors or personalities, do not survive even in relatively mundane circumstances. It is quite compelling, because the situations are life and death. Full Story
The silver price and the US Dollar/South African Rand exchange rate (USD/ZAR) have a very interesting relationship that goes back a long way. In the long run, the two move in opposite directions. When the USD/ZAR rate is moving up, the silver price is moving down, and vice versa. Furthermore, when the USD/ZAR rate is making a top, then a bottom in silver is normally very close (before or after the USD/ZAR peak). Full Story
In part two of this series (read Part 1 and Part 2 here), I stated that I realized that I had made a huge mistake not only in pursuing an Ivy League education, but also in achieving two graduate-level degrees, only after I entered the real world, and discovered, much to my chagrin, that everything I had studied during my 20-years in academia had little or no utility in the real world. Furthermore, even worse, I discovered that much of the theoretical information I had learned in my MBA program was pure nonsense, as the real world of finance and money was the antithesis of what I had studied in school, and was actually harmful to my ability to understand the real world. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 16 May, 2017
While many precious metals investors realize the massive amount of paper trading leverage taking place in the gold market, they should see what is going on in the silver market. In a previous article, I provided data showing that an amazing $9.8 trillion of notional gold paper trading took place on the world’s exchanges in 2016 versus $42 billion in actual physical gold investment. This was a paper to physical ratio of 233 to 1. Full Story
Here at the outset, I want to share with you an interesting observation we made last week of gold’s seasonal trading pattern. As you can see in the chart below, based on data provided by Moore Research Center, the five-year pattern, represented by the orange line, is diverging from the longer-term trends. Note that the index on the left measures the greatest tendency for the asset to make a seasonal high (100) or low (0) at a given time. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 16 May, 2017
The desire to avoid short-term pain is a powerful motivator. Even in cases where it is known that the steps taken to avoid pain in the short-term will lead to greater pain in the distant future, people will often choose the path that entails lesser short-term pain. Also, there’s often the hope that if pain is postponed for long enough then something will spring up to circumvent the need to experience the pain. The relevance to the inflation-deflation issue is that the long-term cure for an economy suffering from the bad effects of high monetary inflation involves stopping the inflation, but stopping the inflation always results in short-term pain. Full Story
Permabears in particular will find this hard to believe, but the Dow Industrial Average could levitate a further 2336 points before it hits something solid. Even some bulls might find the 23317 target shown in the chart (see inset) a tad optimistic. But charts don’t lie, and in this case the force with which the Indoos impaled the red line, a midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 19343, makes a run-up to 23317 a good bet as far as I’m concerned. Full Story
By: Jonathan Kosares and Peter Grant - 15 May, 2017
Make no mistake, brick and mortar retail is dying. And while there has been modest coverage of the topic in recent weeks, it has focused more on the dismal earnings and subsequent shellacking of a few retail stocks. The reality is that this is much, much bigger. We are in the early stages of a seismic shift in the way goods are purchased - a dislocation that has the potential to unleash far-reaching systemic implications and to profoundly alter the U.S. economy as we know it - from basic employment, to commercial real estate, to the stability of the financial sector and the very same banks brought to the brink during the financial crisis. Full Story
By now everyone with an Internet connection is aware of the “ransomware” attack that shut down hundreds of thousands of computers over the weekend. The fact that the onslaught is just beginning — as the military-grade hacking tools developed by the NSA and recently leaked are weaponized by hackers and released into the wild — should, you’d think, be worrisome. Full Story
Since the Trump victory we have heard all about the coming fiscal policies that would replace the non-stop and brilliantly evil* monetary policies employed by the Fed since the 2008 market crash. These fiscal policies range from the hair-brained (rust belt factory job repatriation) to the silly (building a border wall in lieu of modernizing security-focused information and surveillance technologies) to the arduous (fixing the Healthcare system) to the sound (well-targeted tax cuts). Full Story
The best performing precious metal for the week was nearly a tie with platinum up 0.85 percent and silver with a gain of 0.70 percent, as gold, silver and platinum began to find support towards the close of the week. A Bloomberg survey this week shows that traders are split on their outlook for gold prices, with six bullish and four bearish. Full Story
Basic economics tells us all resources are scarce, but our demand for them is not. Hence we need methods to allocate the limited supply of each resource. A significant part of economics is the study of those methods. One exception to the rule, though, has developed in the last few years: The amount of information available to us is practically unlimited. Open your internet browser, and most of that information is just a few clicks way. But if media industry profits (or lack of them) are any indication, demand for that information is anything but infinite. Full Story
All the signs of peak bubble conditions are back – levels comparable to 1929, 2000, and the 2008 financial crisis. Artificially low interest rates coupled with quantitative easing (QE) has brought back the same dynamics that caused previous bubbles to pop as a result of unsustainable extremes, with runaway debt levels up and down the line at center. Yes, the cake eaters have been running rampant since 2008, however even with low interest rates sponsoring the largest debt bubble in history, this madness can’t continue indefinitely. The debt bubble(s) will be popped at some point (soon?). Full Story
There really was only one story this past week—the firing of FBI Director James Comey. It overshadowed the election of Emmanuel Macron as President of France, a centrist candidate. The shock waves from the firing of Comey are still reverberating. Interestingly, it has been compared to Richard Nixon’s “Saturday Night Massacre” on October 23, 1973 when he fired Watergate special prosecutor Archibald Cox, leading to the resignations of Attorney General Elliot Richardson and Deputy Attorney General William Ruckelshaus who had refused Nixon’s orders. Less than a year later, Nixon resigned in disgrace rather than face certain impeachment. Full Story
Bob Hoye of Institutional Advisors rejoins the show with key gold / silver market insights. The gold / silver ratio (GS) offers investors a rare glimpse into future price movements. Bill Murphy of GATA.org returns from a tribute to Eric Sprott, a precious metals expert philanthropist and self made billionaire. Friend of Goldseek.com Radio, Eric Sprott recently noted that gold shares could present a valuation opportunity following an ETF rebalancing. Full Story
The true fundamentals underlying the U.S. economy – as opposed the “fake news” propaganda that emanates from uncovered manholes at the Fed, Wall Street and Capitol Hill – are beginning to slide rapidly. The primary reason for this is that the illusion of wealth creation was facilitated by the inflation of a massive systemic debt and derivatives bubble. Government and corporate debt is at all-time highs. Full Story
The next big trending move will occur in the energy markets. All the technical and cyclical signs are in place to suggest a major bottom is forming. In the precious metals market we have the exact opposite setup. This video will clarify how these two markets are likely to behave in the next several months. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 14 May, 2017
A long memorandum written in March 1974 by a U.S. State Department official for Secretary of State Henry Kissinger and copied to future Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, then the Treasury Department's undersecretary for monetary affairs, describes the desire of the United States and its options to prevent European countries from increasing the use of gold in the international financial system. Full Story
For many years now, thousands of bloggers, writers, and such have chronicled the debacle that is the USEconomy. It is a joke. That fact has been well-established. We can liken it to a cancer. Not every section is influenced in the same manner or degree of severity, but all areas are affected somehow. This publication has struggled to stay firmly on the economic side of the fence and not delve into politics – especially the personal type of politics where Mr. X is the bad guy, but Mr. Y is the good guy. We have, however, entered the arena of geopolitics or the politics of nation vs. nation on many occasions because this is where the arena of battle happens to be. Full Story
Had one bought physical gold at the start of 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010, one would still be sitting on decent to very significant profits as of today. And had one bought gold in 2014, 2015, and 2016, one would still be sitting on small to significant profits today. In other words, in the past 16 years, had one purchased gold at the start of 13, or 81% of these 16 years, one would still be sitting on a gain today. Full Story
Global demand for silver declined from 2015 to 2016 by 123 million ozs per numbers from the Silver Institute presented in an article on The Daily Coin yesterday. In fact, for the demand categories primarily driven by the consumer, demand plummeted 125 million ozs, or 15.3%. Industrial demand for silver increased slightly but this was because of the global expansion in the solar panel industry, primarily in India and China. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 14 May, 2017
According to the most recently released data from Chile’s Ministry of Mining, the country’s silver production declined a stunning 26% in the first quarter of 2017. This is a big deal as Chile is the fourth largest silver producing country in the world. The majority of Chile’s silver production comes as a by-product of copper production. Full Story
Gold gained just 0.07% this past week but does look to be taking the turn now. The major $1,220 pivot area seems to be working as gold is hooking higher and looks set to break above the descending trend-line. Silver slid higher just 0.79% but held the $16.25 support area as well as breaking the downtrend line. This small U bottoms should breakout above $16.50 anytime now and the we see how silver handles the $16.80 resistance area. Looks good for a buy the dip type of play. Full Story
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