The gold and silver stocks have put in a bullish weekly reversal but Gold and Silver have not confirmed it. The interplay between the metals and the shares has been complicated in recent weeks. Hopefully this missive will make some sense of it as the two groups are sending mixed signals. Gold and Silver are charted below in weekly candle format. Before this week the metals looked bullish. Each tested support and rebounded strongly towards resistance. However, both metals gave back much of the recent gains. Bulls would say they are correcting and still in position to test resistance. Bears would say the metals failed to reach resistance and are headed to new lows. Full Story
First off, let me re-emphasize the most valuable piece of financial information imaginable – which I have discussed ad nauseum for the past decade. Which is in executing your personal due diligence process, to make sure your information sources include the handful of “good, smart people” that both know what they’re talking about, and have your best interests at heart. Here at the Miles Franklin Blog, I have found a “home away from home,” as for the first time in my 25-year career, I truly believe in what I do, with every ounce of my being. David Schectman, Bill Holter and our entire sales and management team, too, believe in precious metals with all of their hearts – and not just their ownership, but the service we provide to people entrusting their life’s savings with our products. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 19 December, 2014
Gold stocks have suffered a miserable few years, becoming a laughingstock even among contrarians. But this despised sector’s seemingly-endless downward spiral has left gold stocks vastly undervalued relative to gold, which drives their profits. The fundamentally-absurd disconnect between gold-stock price levels and gold can’t last. And it sure looks ready to end, making 2015 the year gold stocks shine again. Full Story
The world’s prominent central banks are pursuing an accommodative monetary policy and this bodes well for the stock market. Remember, when it comes to investing, monetary policy trumps everything else and the risk free rate of return determines the value of every asset. When interest rates are low and credit is cheap and plentiful, asset prices tend to inflate. Conversely, when interest rates are high and credit is tight, asset prices tend to deflate. Full Story
Globally systemically important banks (G-SIBs in the language of the Financial Stability Board) are to be bailed-in if they fail, moving the cost from governments to the depositors, bondholders and shareholders. There are exceptions to this rule, principally, small depositors who are protected by government schemes, and also derivatives, so the bail-in is partial and bail-out in these respects still applies. Full Story
Louis Gave is one of my favorite investment and economic thinkers, besides being a good friend and an all-around fun guy. When he and his father Charles and the well-known European journalist Anatole Kaletsky decided to form Gavekal some 15 years ago, Louis moved to Hong Kong, as they felt that Asia and especially China would be a part of the world they would have to understand. Since then Gavekal has expanded its research offices all over the world. Full Story
On Christmas Eve 1979, 27 days before I became a teenager, in a surburban street in Moseley in Britain’s West Midlands, a group of musicians put the finishing touches on their debut album. The musicians — Brian Travers, Astro, James Brown (no, not that one), Earl Falconer, Norman Hassan, Mickey Virtue, and twins Ali and Robin Campbell — had a unique approach to the music business. Full Story
I recently watched the movie Interstellar in the theater. I liked it so much, I watched it again… and again. Three times in 10 days. Next, I’ll get the DVD and see it dozens of more times. It’s my new all-time favorite movie. I’m something of an astrophysics geek. I think in another life I might have been one of these nerds working for the SETI project like Ellie Arroway in Contact. For my fifth-grade science project, I constructed a planetarium show. When my schoolmates were playing Contra on Nintendo, I was reading about quasars. Full Story
On his weekly podcast, Andy Hoffman discusses the U.S. dollar is declining, the stock market, gold and silver, oil prices are collapsing, manipulation of all markets and the FOMC statement yesterday. Full Story
The harsh reality is that U.S. shale fields have much more to fear from plummeting oil prices than the Russians, since their costs of production are much higher, says Marin Katusa, author of The Colder War: How the Global Energy Trade Slipped from America’s Grasp. Full Story
One study done by Wells Fargo earlier this year found that nearly half of Americans find it harder to discuss money than other touchy topics such as politics or religion. Even after being married to someone for years, talking about money isn’t always easy – especially if your views differ. In this hypothetical story you’ll meet a couple who learned that when it comes to investing, verbalizing their concerns helped them find a balanced approach, one they are both thankful for today. Full Story
After some three years of disappointment, 2015 promises to be a good year for gold investors. While the near-term price outlook remains uncertain, I feel fairly confident that gold will be considerably higher at this time next year – and on its way to new historic highs in the years ahead. A number of factors, some interrelated, will drive gold higher. Full Story
In the spirit of the holidays, I’m sharing a happy truth: many people do, in fact, retire rich. Who are these rare birds and what can they teach us? Rich Retire #1—The Pension Holder. If you have a large pension in 2014, you likely are or were a government employee. Many government workers receive pensions equal to 75-80% of their working salaries. In some government departments, it’s the unwritten custom for department heads to bump a worker’s salary 20% or so when he or she is a year or two from retirement. This boosts the employee’s base for his retirement pay. Full Story
We are now rallying to test the upper trendline line to see if this has become resistance. I expect it will. So stocks might go up to 2050 on the S&P 500 (initial target the green circle), but then the REAL move down should come climaxing in a break to the red circle in the lower 1800s. Full Story
It is being said today's FOMC announcement is "the most important of Yellen's tenure", I could not disagree more. In the past I have written pieces regarding the potential announcements by the FOMC and come to the conclusion "what can they possibly say?". This is more true now, Janet Yellen et al cannot "say" anything of substance because they cannot "do" anything of substance. The Fed backed themselves into a corner of their own making several years ago, I believe it is only a matter of time before the markets "test" them. Full Story
There are too many analysts who are concerned about deflation, a period during which the price of general goods declines. Because of this, analysts are not too keen on gold. They say the yellow metal is only good for one’s portfolio when there’s inflation. When prices are declining, it’s not really worth anything. I beg to differ, though. Full Story
When growth slows in capital markets, the bankers’ daisy-chain of credit and debt breaks down; setting in motion defaulting debt which ends in recession, deflation or, in extreme cases, a deflationary depression. A deflationary depression is a fatal monetary phenomena where the velocity of money—circulating credit and debt—falls so low capital markets are no longer self-sustaining. This happens after the collapse of massive speculative bubbles such as the collapse of the 1929 US stock market bubble which resulted in the world’s first deflationary depression, the Great Depression of the 1930s. Full Story
Now that the dust from today’s wild ride has settled, we can take a look-see how the Euro fared. In watching the initial reaction to the actual FOMC statement itself, the Euro began to move well off its session lows. It reflected the confusion that was in the minds of traders ( there was certainly a lot of that in my mind when I read the statement) who felt that it struck an extremely dovish theme at initial glance. That threw same water on the fire for those expecting a sooner rather than later shift in policy expectations for the FOMC in regards to raising interest rates. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 18 December, 2014
According to the USGS most recent data, total U.S. gold exports increased significantly in September. Not only did U.S. gold exports surge in September, they were 70% higher than the previous month. This was probably due to increased demand as the price of gold declined $80 during the month. Full Story
Rosy GDP numbers may have cheered the masses, but John Williams of ShadowStats.com says we're a long way from prosperity. In this interview with The Gold Report, Williams debunks the myth of economic recovery and warns that we still have serious debts to settle. That is why he is recommending caution in 2015 to preserve purchasing power and maintain your standard of living. Full Story
By: Daniel R Amerman, CFA, MBA, BSBA - 17 December, 2014
One of the most important financial questions someone of retirement age in the United States faces is when to start collecting their Social Security payments ─ and this crucial decision deserves the best possible information to work from. Recently, there has been quite a bit of publicity about studies showing that for a retiree who lives to an average age, there is a six figure advantage to waiting until age 70 to begin the collection of Social Security payments. That is an amazing advantage ─ but does it hold up under close scrutiny? Full Story
Whenever I see the words “life-changing opportunity” or something like that, I immediately dismiss it as a lame gimmick or hyperbole. And while I am truly reluctant to use those often misused words, I can honestly think of no better way to describe Puerto Rico’s tax incentives for traders, hedge funds, private equity firms, and asset managers of all stripes. This is truly a life-changing opportunity for them, and that’s not BS. By the end of this article, you’ll see why. Full Story
Oil has crashed and now trading at roughly half the level it was just 6 months ago. There are winners and losers of course but this is not the point, the point is ...this is either the sign of a credit contraction, the cause of a credit contraction or both. Consumers are obviously winners and producers the losers, just as oil importing nations are the winners and exporters the losers. But, as I just mentioned, this is not the point at all. Full Story
Last weekend, in a special edition article I did on Elliottwavetrader.net, I addressed the inflation/deflation arguments we hear so much about regarding metals. Over the last several weeks of weakness in the equity markets, we are now seeing the resurrection of another old perspective that gold acts as a “safe haven” during times of equity market weakness. And, it really plays well as a sound-byte. But, unfortunately, it is not bolstered by the facts. Full Story
Geez, I can’t decide who is dumber when it comes to repeating the same mistakes: the profits-at-any-cost crowd on Wall Street or the do-anything-for-votes politicians in Washington, DC. I can’t decide; they’re both dumber than dirt and often in bed when it comes to lining each other’s pockets. Full Story
Last week we started a series of letters on the topics I think we need to research in depth as we try to peer into the future and think about how 2015 will unfold. In forecasting US growth, I wrote that we really need to understand the relationships between the boom in energy production on the one hand and employment and overall growth in the US on the other. Full Story
I keep thinking back to the story I related several weeks back; of how, with not a shred of knowledge of the character or intelligence of George W. Bush, I voted for him in the 2000 Presidential election – out of “fear” that the oilfield service stocks I analyzed, marketed and advised of would decline. Yes, my dislike of Al Gore and Joe Lieberman factored into the equation as well. And yes, living in New York, it mattered not who I voted for, as New York always votes Democrat. Full Story
The Toronto Venture Exchange (TSXV) and its predecessor, the Vancouver Stock Exchange (VSE), have always been dominated by listings of micro-cap resource stocks. Most companies have focused on exploration and mining of precious and/or industrial metals, but a significant number have been involved in oil and gas exploration and production. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 16 December, 2014
The correction in precious metals, now in its 39th month, has been devastating for long-term bulls. At recent lows, gold was trading 42% below its September 2011 Comex high of $1952. As for silver, which peaked at $50, it has plummeted by an astounding 72%. From a technical standpoint, both look like they have further to fall: gold, currently trading around $1200, to exactly $810; and silver, quoted today near $16, to – better sit down for this – $7.86. Full Story
It’s a basic human instinct – attempting to avoid pain. And it’s the reason we are in so much trouble now, because when it comes to managing economies, the longer you put off necessary pain, the worse the result in the end. This is the primary distinction defining the difference between Keynesian and Austrian economics. Full Story
The Oil story is being misinterpreted by many investors. When it comes to Oil, OPEC matters, as does Oil Shale, production cuts, geopolitical risk, etc. However, the reality is that all of these are minor issues against the MAIN STORY: the $9 TRILLION US Dollar carry trade. Full Story
Stock markets around the world are reeling, under pressure from the tumbling price of oil. On that daily chart of the Dow, it appears that all of this year’s gains may soon be lost. The FOMC meeting begins today, and Janet Yellen holds a press conference tomorrow afternoon. The Fed has consistently failed to raise inflation to their comfort zone, and the global oil price crash will make their job even harder now. Full Story
To say that events are now taking place at the speed of light is an understatement. It was just last Monday, I wrote a missive entitled "The Mother of all Bank Runs". In it I wrote about the German and Dutch repatriations of gold which was then followed by the Belgians beginning discussions on the same topic. As a final speculation, I mentioned that "logically the Austrians would be next". There was no way you could have told me it would be less than one week until the same news would actually come out of Austria! Full Story
The Ukraine crisis has moderated for now, but it should have awakened the world to the new “great game” being played in Eastern Europe. Vladimir Putin is positioning Russia to control the global energy trade, knowing that he holds the trump card: Europe’s dependence on Russian oil and gas. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 16 December, 2014
The conventional view is that Fed money creation is necessarily bullish for gold and that a tightening of monetary conditions beginning with the cessation of Fed money creation is necessarily bearish for gold. It's strange that this view is popular given that gold was clearly hurt more than helped by the QE program that extended from October of 2012 through to October of this year. If gold is now going to be hurt by a 'tighter' Fed, the implication is that regardless of what the Fed does it's bearish for gold. Full Story
One can only draw so many lines on a chart before they become completely confused on what trendline is actually important. Many will just starting connecting two top points and two bottom points and calling it a pattern. That’s not how you find a chart pattern. A chart pattern shows the fight between the bulls and the bears. Lets use a triangle as an example of the fight between the bulls and the bear in an uptrend. Full Story
The FED’s easy money has encouraged rampant energy speculation and over-investment, resulting in more than $500 billion in new loans and investments in just the past 4 years. And so long as Crude prices stayed comfortably above $90, investments made money and everyone was happy. But once energy prices started falling, the decline quickly became a negative loop-back effect because the very high levels of leverage could not tolerate the move. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 16 December, 2014
The Great Bakken Oil Field suffered a setback in October as production declined 1,598 barrels per day compared to the previous month. The industry blames the decline on drillers scaling back on production due to the new flaring mandate that requires companies to capture natural gas as well as the rapid fall in oil prices. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 16 December, 2014
Tax selling in this vehicle could produce a climactic bottom in the weeks ahead, but the range of possible targeted lows is quite wide, depending on how fierce the washout is. There are at least two logical hidden supports where we might look for an important turn: at 20.83 (daily chart, A=54.56 on 8/24/13); or at 17.30 (see inset). Bottom-fishing the higher Hidden Pivot poses relatively little risk, since we can use a very tight stop-loss, and because a bounce from that price that is at least tradable, if not sustainable, looks quite likely. Full Story
The beauty of the Miles Franklin blog is one never knows how it might start. In fact, I often don’t know myself, until I sit down and start typing. Moreover, now that the world is rapidly devolving to 2008-style crisis mode, there are so many “horrible headlines” to address, it sometimes becomes difficult to determine what’s most urgent. Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital - 15 December, 2014
The stunning 40% drop in the price of oil over the past few months has scrambled global economic forecasts, changed the geo-political landscape, and has severely pressured many energy sector investments. Economists are scratching their heads to determine if the drop is good or bad for the economy or whether cheap oil will add to or decrease unemployment, or complicate the global effort to "defeat" deflation. Full Story
I don’t want to be a ‘financial guy’ anymore. When I started out writing this column, the goal was to educate and bring awareness, hopefully presented in a way that was easily understandable. I need to get back to that. I think we were able to do some strong work these past 7 years advising people, but I was asked one too many times how I could say the things I say about the financial industry, banking, and the money system yet still work within that system. Full Story
Peter Eliades - Summary: US stocks are overvalued. Fixed income investors have been forced to chase dividend yield. The entire scenario will end similarly to the year 200 meltdown. John Williams - Summary: The dollar rally will fade, leading to the next financial crisis. Actual domestic GDP was stagnant in the third quarter. Full Story
Never before have I seen so many pieces of information to be put together in the span of just one week. This past week we were bombarded with connectable dot after connectable dot, nearly each and every one of them on their own would have caused a panic 30 years ago. I say "30 years ago" because this was before the 1987 crash, this was before anything and everything, nailed down or not ...was levered many times over in what eventually became an inflation orgy. Full Story
If we lived in a normal word of fiscal propriety, the falling oil price would be viewed as something to celebrate, as it reduces costs across the board, and should theoretically boost the economy, but we live in an abnormal debt-wracked world where instead fears are surfacing that the plunging oil price will trigger a series of cascading loan defaults that have the potential to collapse the system – already world stockmarkets are buckling. Full Story
The United States declared economic war on Russia. It is hard to pinpoint the why of the matter but in this author’s opinion it always comes back to dollar dominance. Russia has made no secret of its disdain for the global pricing mechanism of oil. The chart below shows what matters in the pricing of oil and it has zero to do with shale miracles or over supply. Full Story
At the prodding of an NFTRH subscriber who was combing through old issues, I went back and read NFTRH 7, from November of 2008 and was struck by how things have really not changed in the last 6 years of non-stop inflationary policy; they have intensified and gone global, but the mechanics have not changed. Full Story
Gold traders are exhibiting bullish sentiment for a third week as the price of bullion continued through a second weekly advance. Assets in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest bullion exchange-traded product, rose on Tuesday at the fastest pace since July. The holdings are up almost 1 percent in December, snapping four straight months of losses. Full Story
Gold prices advanced 2.5 per cent last week despite a slip back on Friday to close at $1,221 an ounce while global equity markets were pummelled in their worst week for three years as oil prices crashed to new lows. The falling oil price took down the US dollar with it and that was good news for gold. Full Story
The clichéd definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. There is no room for sanity in the United States, anymore, and the public is sleepwalking through it all. Arguably, this has been carefully orchestrated by the elites over the past century, as in 100 years and not just in the past decade or so. Capitalism is dead in the US, and has been for decades. Ironically, China and Russia are far more capitalistic. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 15 December, 2014
When will the Fed raise interest rates? My stock answer has been “never,” and the record shows that this prediction has held up pretty well. The last time the Fed actually raised rates was in June 2006, so my “read” on Fed policy has been essentially correct for the better part of a decade. This is notwithstanding the fact that whenever the Fed is not tightening, it drives eggheads, economists and op-ed hacks nuts. Full Story
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