As symbolized by the 3 Amigos, the macro backdrop is riding on to its destiny. That forward destiny is a top in stocks vs. gold (Amigo 1), a rise in long-term interest rates to potential if not probable limits (Amigo 2) and an end to the yield curve’s flattening trend (Amigo 3). Full Story
Recently, Russian television network RT extensively quoted me in a series of articles about the US Government’s gold reserves. The RT articles, published on the RT.com website, were based on a series of questions RT put to me about various aspects of the official US gold reserves. These gold reserves are held by the US Treasury, mostly in the custody of the US Mint. The US Mint is a branch of the US Treasury. Full Story
Well Jim, I figure a good place to start here is with one of your most recent books. We want to get your take on the state of the world economy. In your book titled The Road to Ruin: The Global Elites' Secret Plan for the Next Financial Crisis, you make some very interesting comments. Now while the financial media is talking about booming stock markets and accelerating GDP growth, you aren't quite as optimistic. Full Story
Gold is climbing as bond yields rise and the dollar falls, over speculation that China is pulling back on buying US Treasuries and Japan signals it is winding down its quantitative easing program. Meanwhile, US debt continues to grow after the Republicans under President Trump pushed a trillion dollars worth of tax cuts through the Senate, that the Congressional Budget Office thinks will add $1.7 trillion to the deficit over the next decade. Full Story
The world’s leading gold-stock ETF is nearing a major upside breakout from key technical levels. GDX is getting closer to challenging and powering above $25. That would accelerate the sentiment shift in this deeply-undervalued sector back to bullish, enticing investors to return. Good operating results from the major gold miners in their upcoming Q4’17 earnings season could prove the catalyst to fuel this GDX $25 breakout. Full Story
The election of Donald Trump as President and then the December, 2017 passage of the Tax Reform Bill jacked up Market Sentiment to Bullish and then more Bullish and U.S. Equities Markets roared to record highs throughout 2017 and into 2018. Now what? Now what are investors to do to Maximize Real Gains, and avoid losses, in 2018? Full Story
For now, the raging bulls chasing momentum conveniently ignore the deterioration in “new orders” and “employment” numbers in deference to the statistically manipulated headline reports that purport to show economic growth. Most of the bullish reports are overweighted with “sentiment” and “hope” metrics that offset declining real economy statistics. Credit card and auto loan delinquencies – both subprime and “prime” – continue to increase a double-digit rates (see WFM or COF’s latest quarterlies, for instance). As for the “prime” credit rating designation of 2017, it’s not your mother’s “prime” credit rating. Full Story
Dividend yielding stocks may be preferable in 2018, but caution is advisable before chasing yield too high, which only magnifies risk / volatility. The host / guest concur that NVIDIA (NVDA) shares remain appealing, due in part to record demand for their superior crypto-mining GPUs, this is his top holding. The guest also holds UCTT, Ultra Clean Holdings, and Chinese stocks in anticipation of the Morgan Stanley plans to add Chinese stocks to their indexes, including WEBCO, ticker WB. Full Story
Two years ago in this space, I penned an essay discussing how Americans - and other countries that are "dollarized" - where the local currency is either the USD or pegged to it - had a significant advantage when it came to getting the most for their money when exchanging dollars for precious metals. Full Story
As of Friday, the metals have now give us another indication that a break out attempt may be setting up yet again. And, just like the others we tracked last year, I am unable to tell you definitively whether the market will trigger that set up. However, after making higher highs off the December support on Friday, the metals have almost completed a 5-wave structure off those lows. That is the initial bullish indication for which we have been waiting in 2018. Full Story
Last month an official of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York celebrated a century of cooperation by central banks in secret interventions in the markets. His address was posted on the internet sites of the New York Fed and the Bank for International Settlements, but mainstream financial news organizations have yet to take note of it. Full Story
Within this current fractional reserve and derivative pricing system, it’s sometimes easy to anticipate price rallies and slams by observing The Bullion Banks and their practice of increasing and decreasing the total open interest of contracts on the COMEX. Full Story
As Bitcoin is still at a very high level historically, it is considered worthwhile for those hapless individuals (not us) who bought Bitcoin in the recent past to make a tactical switch on opportunity cost grounds into Tulip Bulbs. After all, there has not been a major Tulip Bulb speculative mania since the 17th Century, and it is thought that now might be the time, especially since we are in the age of the everything bubble, thanks to our munificent and all-empowering Central Bankers. Full Story
Globally renowned economist and editor of the GloomBoomDoom report, Dr. Marc Faber returns with his outlook on the financial markets for 2018. Due to excessive expansion, of central bank balance sheets, global equities prices may be overextended as robust economic conditions are heavily dependent on inflated asset prices. Investors will shy away from the bubble markets to the precious metals, which will likely be next to outperform competing asset classes. Full Story
It’s no secret that Central Banks have been funneling liquidity both directly and indirectly into stocks. However, what most investors don’t realize is that this liquidity pump is about to end. Why? Because the endless streams of liquidity (Central Banks continue to run QE programs of $100+ billion per month despite the global economy stabilizing) have unleashed inflation. Forget the “official” date. That stuff is all propaganda. Take a look at what is happening in the bond markets which trade based on inflation in the real world. Full Story
The liquidity will flow into commodities causing inflation…just like it did in 2008. This time the bubble will be in the precious metals market instead of the energy markets though. The metals have held up much better than the rest of the commodity sector. Big money has been accumulating all last year in preparation for what happens when the stock bubble pops. This is why stocks and gold have gone up together for two years. Gold will continue to rise as the bubble in stocks becomes more mature and more and more liquidity starts to move over to the metals in preparation for the stock market implosion that is coming later this year. Full Story
The bull market’s blow-off-like trajectory has steepened, if such a thing were imaginable, with Wednesday’s 322-point rally in the Dow. The blue chip average is ostensibly headed to the 27,251 target shown, and although this Hidden Pivot resistance is worth shorting, I wouldn’t recommending standing in the herd’s way if it is exceeded by more than 10-15 points. Full Story
I believe there’s a good chance that gold will move toward and possibly over $1400 during 2018. This Trump tax cut will negatively impact the Government’s spending deficit by a meaningful amount and the U.S. will be forced to issue well over $1 trillion in Treasury debt this year. Moody’s placed the U.S. Government’s rating on watch for a possible downgrade. During the course of the year I expect to see the dollar index drop below 90, which is a key technical support level. If this occurs, gold will quickly move over $1400. Full Story
At the beginning of every year, we update what’s typically one of our most popular pages, the Periodic Table of Commodity Returns. I encourage you to explore 10 years’ worth of data on basic materials such as aluminum, zinc and everything in between. A word of warning, though—the interactive feature makes the table highly addictive. Please feel free to share it with friends and family! Full Story
You undoubtedly know that 2017 was a record-setting year for the broad stock markets. And while gold was up last year despite numerous headwinds, most mainstream investors aren’t paying much attention to gold since they keep seeing so much green in their stock portfolios. Full Story
In 2017, Arizona, Louisiana, Virginia, Texas, and North Carolina, and even Minnesota made progress on the sound money front. In 2018, other states could do so as well. 36 states have already removed sales taxes from precious metals transactions, and bills being pushed this year by sound money advocates in Alabama and Tennessee could add to that list. Full Story
2017 was literally the smoothest stretch of highway that US stocks have ever traveled. Rising almost every day and seldom falling hard, they made it virtually impossible for investors to lose money. Here’s the Dow Jones Industrial Average over the past two years. Note how unnaturally smooth the recent action was. Full Story
Let’s get the year started properly with a visit from Rob Kirby, Kirby Analytics, and take a long look at the global house of cards built upon the “exorbitant privilege” of the world reserve currency Federal Reserve Note, U.S. dollar. Does the Federal Reserve Note, U.S. dollar still hold the reigns of control as the global trade currency or has that privilege been abused to the point of the U.S. dollar becoming irrelevant on the global stage? Full Story
Precious metals sector is on major buy signal. Cycle is up, suggesting that the multi-month correction is now complete. COT data is supportive for overall higher metal prices. We are holding gold related ETFs for long-term gain. Full Story
Today the GDXJ is breaking out above its neckline. Again I was looking for a little more chopping action between the neckline and the neckline symmetry line before the breakout, but so far it’s not happening. I’m going to take my second position and buy 150 shares at the market at 35.34 with the sell/stop at 33.31 for now. A backtest to the neckline would come in around the 35.10 for a slightly lower risk entry point. Full Story
My past two weekend reports have armed the investor with ideas for the coming year 2018. This week’s report summarizes those ideas, updates the current PM rally and adds more ideas to the list. It is important to understand the driving force which will fuel the coming bull market in precious metals so I lay it out. I will then focus on what I consider the best risk/reward Precious Metals Royalty company… Sandstorm Gold Royalties. Full Story
The oil market price is setting up for one heck of a fall. Now, could this large oil correction cause the next stock market crash? Time will tell. However, the indicators in the oil market are showing the largest net commercial short positions in history. The current net commercial short positions in the oil market are even higher by 174,000 contracts than the level when the oil price fell from $105 in mid-2014 to a low of $30 at the beginning of 2016. Full Story
Every month consumer debt in aggregate hits a new record. Auto loans and student loans have been hitting monthly record highs for quite some time. In November credit card debt hit a record high in total and increased a record monthly amount for any one month. Mathematically this can’t go on forever. In fact, there are signs – indicators not reported widely by the financial media and, predictably, completely disregarded by Wall Street – that indicate the debt party is coming to an end. Events that follow the end of the party will be less than pleasant for the majority of U.S. households. Full Story
Gold and related investments are off to a very positive start in 2018. I don’t expect any major pause in the action until China’s Golden Week holiday celebrations get underway. Chinese gold dealers will be on holiday this year from about February 15 to February 21. This creates a significant vacuum in gold demand. As dealers and Chinese gold markets close, the gold price tends to soften in global markets. Full Story
Over the weekend, the Cleveland Fed released its media Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December 2017. The result? The Median CPI rose 0.3% in December, an annualized rate of 3.5%. Put simply, core inflation is rising rapidly… and the Fed is WAY behind the curve. Small wonder the US Dollar is collapsing, breaking through critical resistance. Full Story
The best performing metal this week was palladium, up 3.02 percent. After polling neutral last week, gold traders and analysts are back to a bullish view of gold, according to the Bloomberg survey. This week gold ETFs added 91,867 troy ounces of gold to their holdings, the largest one-day increase since early December. Full Story
If officials at the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) are bothered by allegations of incompetence and capture by Wall Street’s bankers, it is hard to tell. The Commission recently hired Brett Redfearn to serve as Director of the Division of Trading and Markets. Redfearn left a 13 year stint at JP Morgan to assume a key role in regulating banks, investors and traders. Full Story
With or without a Yuan-denominated oil futures market there is nothing preventing the suppliers of oil to China from accepting payment in Yuan. In fact, some of the oil imported by China is already paid for in Yuan. Having a Yuan-denominated oil futures contract may encourage some additional oil trading to be done in China’s currency because it would enable suppliers to reduce their risk via hedging, but the main issue is that the Yuan is not a useful currency outside China. Full Story
Chinese demand for physical gold investment surged in the first three-quarters of 2017 while Americans ditched the shiny yellow metal for increased bets in the crypto mania and stock market bubble market. Even though China’s Hang Seng Stock Market outperformed the Dow Jones Index last year, Chinese citizens purchased the most gold bar and coin products Q1-Q3 2017 since the same period in 2013, when they took advantage of huge gold market price selloff. Full Story
I strive to maintain 10-20% of my net worth in physical bullion. Most is in gold but I always own platinum and silver, too. he product availability and options for buying physical palladium are much more limited than platinum and I have never chosen to own it. Despite its record high closing price of $1117/oz on January 12, I still consider palladium to be an industrial not a precious metal. Full Story
Morally, socialism is the enslavement of man to man. If you create something, they want not just to take it from you, but to render you unable to create anything else. They declare that the ideal is “from each according to his ability.” This is about the most perfect expression of envy ever put into words. By envy, we mean the hatred of the good for being the good. We mean the sort of person that if he sees you have something, he wants to take it. Not so much to have it for himself, but to deprive you of it. Full Story
The 91.57 downside target we were using for the dollar looked promising as a place for a powerful bounce to occur. Instead, sellers crushed it on Friday, putting in play a significantly lower target at 88.29 that I would rate as almost certain to be reached. If so, it would add 2.9% to the Dollar Index’s so far 12.4% decline from the 103.82 high recorded a year ago. It would also undoubtedly quicken the inflation drumbeat we’ve been hearing recently from the usual, benighted sources — i.e., the news media, professional economists and talking heads. Full Story
Bill Murphy of GATA.org, returns with extremely bullish comments on the PMs. Millions of new Bitcoin millionaires may convert a fraction of their digital wealth for something tangible resembling Bitcoin that they can hold in their hands - gold bullion. Arch Crawford, head of Crawford Perspectives, outlines his price outlook for stocks, Bitcoin and the PMs in 2018. Arch Crawford remains a staunch PMs bull, noting that once gold closes above $1,320, a new uptrend is expected, perhaps taking the yellow metal above the former 2011 peak. Full Story
In Part II we examine why in 2018 we will see "Accelerating Social Change". Though there are many reasons the video focuses on four drivers which are accelerating Social Change with the aid of 12 supporting slides. Full Story
The rebound in the precious metals sector continues. Friday, Gold pushed to another new high, near $1340/oz. Gold stocks led by the HUI Gold Bugs Index and GDX also made a new high with juniors and Silver right behind. The greatest traders say the move comes first and then the reason later. When it comes to Gold we are always analyzing the reason behind the moves so we can distinguish between reactions and reflex moves and those moves that are part of a real bull market. The market may be starting to sniff out a potential big catalyst for Gold that could drive its breakout in 2018. Full Story
This time is different. It has a nice ring to it. It is also a mantra we have heard many times. Financial crises are something that happens to other people, in other countries at other times, as Reinhart and Rogoff wrote in their 2009 tome. They are not something that happens to us. If that is correct, then the 2008 financial crisis never really happened as the central banks, led by the Federal Reserve, came along and made it go away. All is hunky dory. All is good. Full Story
Only two weeks in and 2018 is already breaking records – mostly in a good way. But that leaves 50 potentially less enjoyable weeks to go. So rather than focus on promising current events, I think I’d better dip back into my annual forecast bag and share a few more highlights with you. Full Story
When you are following the markets closely day after day it can be easy to lose sight of the big picture. So with the “everything bubble” getting closer to bursting, leading to universal mess and mayhem, there could not be a better time to look at the long-term picture for gold and silver, in order to see whether they are going to salute and go down with the ship, like they did in 2008, or constitute a lifeboat and a profitable means of escape for more fortunate investors. Full Story
Just a quick update on GLD which is showing the price action approaching the top rail of its triangle trading range which should be around the 127.50 area. Many times during the formation of a 5 point triangle reversal pattern the price action will fail to make it all the way down to the 5th reversal point which suggests the bulls are eager to get positioned. A touch of the top rail will complete the 5th reversal point technically putting the triangle into the reversal category to the upside. Full Story
For now, the precious metals are rising with the ‘inflation trade’. When the hysterics fade and inflation traders are one day sent to walk the plank then it will be time for the real distinct bull market in the PMs, probably after a flush of some degree with said inflation trade.* There is a rhythm in play and the majority will not dance to it. Full Story
Looking at just this one indicator, it would be reasonable to assume that gold’s all-too-brief run is about to end. But on the other side of this equation is the certainty that physical demand will eventually swamp these paper games and send gold and silver up in a bitcoin-worthy arc to their intrinsic values of $5,000/oz and $100/oz, respectively. Full Story
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