By: Peter Spina, President, CEO of GoldSeek.com & SilverSeek.com - 18 September, 2015
Gold and silver surged on news that the FOMC ruled that they will not raise rates, not just yet. Low inflation rates and a low growth rates are keeping historic 0% rates for longer. This should not be a surprise to gold and silver investors who know the massive amount of debt will never allow rates to rise significantly as the biggest fear for central bankers is deflation. Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital - 18 September, 2015
Every dictator knows that a continuous state of emergency is the best means to justify tyrannical policies. The trick is to keep the fictitious emergency from breeding so much paranoia that routine activities come to a halt. Many have discovered that its best to make the threat external, intangible and ultimately, unverifiable. In Orwell's 1984 the preferred mantra was "We've always been at war with Eurasia," even though everyone knew it wasn't true. In its rate decision this week the Federal Reserve, adopted a similar approach and conjured up an external threat to maintain a policy that is becoming increasingly absurd. Full Story
The overleveraging of the U.S. federal, state, and local governments, some corporations, and consumers is well known. This has long been the case, and most people are bored by the topic. If debt is a problem, it has been manageable for so long that it no longer seems like a problem. U.S. government debt has become an abstraction; it has no more meaning to the average investor than the prospect of a comet smacking into the earth in the next hundred millennia. Full Story
As we know, Gold and gold mining stocks have been trapped in a bear market that has been severe in both price and duration. It is seemingly a “forever” bear market as rebounds and recoveries have been followed by lower prices and more devastation. The Fed-induced strength of this week is giving bulls some hope. For the bulls, this strength needs to be duplicated in the weeks ahead or it would be another false alarm. While a new bull market is inevitable, we do not see it as imminent. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 18 September, 2015
Yesterday’s Fed decision was one of the most anticipated ever, with much potential to really change the global financial-market dynamics going forward. But thanks to the Fed’s incredible market distortions of recent years, Fed meetings spawning exceptional volatility is nothing new. Fed decisions’ impacts on gold and stocks have been vast. And this next tightening cycle should reverse their Fed-imparted directionality. Full Story
Yesterday's article "Is YOUR 'pool' full?" drew many responses and much to my surprise a reply from Bron Suchecki himself! I must say, even though I disagree with some of his writings, Mr. Suchecki is a class act and true gentleman. He began with an apology for the title and closing of his article "Who is the player and who is being played?". He wrote his intention for that phrase was for his example of the games played with warehouse stocks. Full Story
She came, she saw– she passed. After confining herself to radio silence for the better part of two months, chairwoman Yellen yesterday lit the fire and wafted the signal: the Fed would stand pat on raising interest rates. Moreover, there was a less than hawkish tone delivered towards the intermediate-term outlook– both in the communique and the nearly hour long press conference that followed, that broke the back of the dollar as well as the swell in short-term interest rates that had been cresting higher into the September meeting. The long and short of things, the initial relief rally in equities quickly fizzled, the yen and gold found another foothold and real yields declined. Full Story
By: Richard (Rick) Mills, Ahead of the herd - 18 September, 2015
From its headquarters at York Factory on Hudson Bay, the Hudson's Bay Company (HBC) controlled the fur trade throughout much of North America for several centuries. Gold discoveries were not reported – it was good policy (as we shall see), on the part of Hudson’s Bay, and other fur companies, not to talk about gold because protection of the fur trade was their overriding corporate interest. Full Story
Commodities and Emerging Markets have been crushed over the past 15 months by the dollar’s strong rally. It therefore follows that if the dollar starts down again, they are going to rally, and this will happen regardless of the state of economies. The dollar should start down again if the Fed fails to raise interest rates tomorrow, and maybe even if they do, as the ensuing chain of interest rate rises cannot extend far because of the magnitude of debt. Full Story
The Federal Reserve guessing game ended Thursday after the FOMC made its decision on interest rate policy. The Fed left rates unchanged in a tip of the hat to investors who felt the economy was vulnerable to overseas weakness. This was what most on Wall Street wanted, although there was a sharp intraday reversal after the announcement (apparently a case of buy the rumor, sell the news). Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 18 September, 2015
As wait times for certain silver bullion products reach upwards of 2 months, investors are now switching over to buying gold. How much gold? Heck of a lot more when look at the figures. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 18 September, 2015
The stock market went nuts yesterday when the Fed did what anyone with an IQ higher than 70 should have easily foreseen — i.e., nothing. For the benefit of those on the wrong side of the trade, and for the umpteenth time in four years, I am going to repeat my answer to the question, when will the Fed raise interest rates? The answer is: “NEVER!!!!!!!!!!” Full Story
This is going to be the last of the trading lessons for a while. I don’t want to turn this into a trading blog, and there are important macro things to talk about (especially next week). Here’s an imaginary scenario: someone tips you that an acquisition is going to happen. Of course, that would be insider trading, which is illegal—but let’s pretend for the purpose of this exercise that insider trading were legal. Full Story
Our most recent silver example is the move from November 2001 at $4.01 to April 2011 at about $48.50. Phase 1 took 93% of the time from November 2001 to Sept. 2010 when silver again reached the March 2008 high near $21. Phase 2 took 7% of the time but covered only 62% of the price move up from $4.01 to about $48.50. Silver was overextended but not in a bubble, in my opinion, based on the above percentages. Full Story
Consider yourself warned. In fact, the first warning from the elitists was fired in January 2010, when the SEC voted almost unanimously to allow Money Market Funds to suspend investor redemptions during periods of “extraordinary circumstances.” Of course, it’s during those periods of time – when the financial system is melting down – that investors would want to get their money out of money market funds. Full Story
Silver and Interest rates have moved together historically. Higher interest rates when silver is going up and lower interest rates when silver is going down. Full Story
Not often in financial markets is the future price of gold is lower than the spot price (live), but lately we’ve witnessed such an event in both the New York and London gold market. This is called backwardation, the opposite of contango. What causes backwardation and will it increase the price of gold? In my opinion there are two possible scenarios: the market expects the gold price to fall in the future, or there is scarcity now. Full Story
So it seems the Fed finds itself in a self-imposed conundrum here: make a policy error and raise into a slowdown, don’t raise and openly recognize growth is slowing. Which brings me back to my previous point: since 2008, no new market highs have been achieved without central bank stimulus. As always, government remains the No. 1 risk to financial markets, and I will change my views as the facts change. Full Story
Now that the test has occurred it’s time to go the other way. Again no one believes me. Traders have become so conditioned to gold going down they can’t envision any scenario where it could possibly go up. And that is exactly the kind of sentiment that occurs at major trend changes. We saw the exact opposite sentiment at the stock market top several months ago. Right when I was warning everyone that the market was going to crash. Full Story
Most gold owners are familiar with worries of forced government gold confiscation – that one day black-ops shock teams will toss homes to find that stash of coins and bars. The sole historical source for the modern fear of “confiscation” was President Franklin Roosevelt's 1933 Executive Order 6102 telling America to cough up its gold in the midst of The Great Depression. But closely reading FDR's infamous order offers a sobering perspective which doesn't fit the ever-evolving folklore. This reality might calm some confiscation fears... Full Story
It’s now been 6 months since the LBMA Gold Price auction, the much touted replacement to the London Gold Fixings, was launched on an ICE Benchmark Administration (IBA) platform on Friday 20 March 2015. For anyone not au fait with the gold price auction, the LBMA Gold Price is a twice daily auction that produces the world’s most widely used gold price benchmark, which is then used as a daily pricing source in gold markets and gold products across the globe. Full Story
Bill Holter is not asking you to trust him. He is putting forth logic and welcomes you showing where the logic is faulty. I have pointed out Mr. Suchecki's poor logic as it is based on his opinion. He basically says to an investment segment untrusting to begin with ,"trust paper". Sorry Bron, I'd like to but I trust my own eyes far more than you or anyone else's word! Logic is logic and if more gold has been demanded than produced for years upon years, it had to come from somewhere yet no one says their vault has been emptied ...logic tells me someone is lying as to how full their pools really are. Full Story
Recently I spoke with Jim Rogers about the most important investment lessons he has learned over the years. Jim is a legendary investor and true international man. He’s always ahead of the game. Jim made a bundle by investing in commodities in the 1990s when they were out of favor with Wall Street. He’s also made large profits investing in crisis markets. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 16 September, 2015
Of course there's always metal around, especially gold, which is produced mainly to be hoarded, unlike silver, most of which is consumed in manufacturing. So the question is really the price, the ratio of monetary metal's value to the value of currencies and other assets, that will draw metal into the market, and especially the price that will be permitted by governments that issue currencies whose own value is the reciprocal of the prices of the monetary metals. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 16 September, 2015
While the drain of COMEX gold and silver Registered inventories continues as demand for physical precious metals increases, JP Morgan experienced a 45% decline of its Registered Gold Inventories in one day. JP Morgan now only has a lousy 10,777 oz of gold remaining in its Registered gold inventories. Full Story
Year to date India has imported 666 tonnes of gold, up 69 % year on year. Annualized gold import is set to reach 998 tonnes – the second highest amount on record and 35 % of this year’s world mining production. Currently demand from India is strong, which fits with alleged scarcity in the gold market. Official data on the website of the DGCIS has yet to be released, although I think The Economic Times got their hands on a preview sheet from the DGCIS. Full Story
Resource investors, take note: By 2025, just 10 years from now, energy consumption in Asia will increase a whopping 31 percent. A whole two-thirds of that demand, driven largely by China and India, will be for fossil fuels, most notably coal. That’s according to a new research piece by financial services group Macquarie, which writes that the estimated rise in fossil fuel demand is equivalent of “three times Saudi Arabia’s current (all-time-high) oil production.” Full Story
For the last several years, many of you may remember that my downside target box for the GLD was within the 98-105 region (with an ideal target of 98), for silver it was between 12.75-14 (with an ideal target of 12.75), and the GDX was within the 9.60-13.21 region. I also noted that in an extreme overreaction, the GLD could drop as low as 75, and silver could drop down to the 11 region. But, also remember that I was putting out these targets as our primary targets when silver broke the 26 region, and when GLD broke the 150 region. And, despite much disbelief from most of those that read my analysis, we now find ourselves in those target regions. Full Story
The answer to this plain question should always be a resounding no: it never pays to give into panic. The smartest option is to derail this emotion before it gains any traction. Once fear takes over, the end is nigh. When the markets were disintegrating approximately two weeks ago and if you were one of the lucky few that opted against joining the bandwagon of panic, you should have had a feeling of déjà vu; sort of like the movie ground hogs day. Full Story
There is so much to comment on today it's hard to know where to start. As the title suggests, "war" seems to be the theme. Before getting into the meat, I read an article by Simon Black "The last time this happened was ...never". This was quite a good piece and extremely correct but misses the point I tried to make yesterday and one I will try again with today. He is right on target, we have a superpower waning, technology advancing faster than ever and all wrapped around a financial bubble of unprecedented size. Yes it presents risk and offers opportunity ...but this is not about "money", rather it is about "the" money. Full Story
We're off and running in what will surely be a week not for the faint of heart. If you like volatility and uncertainty, this week is right up your alley. Fortunes will be made and lost while my cute little stack of gold shines in the sun, indifferent to all of the Keynesian madness. As this pertains to gold and silver, here's what you must remember. The only reason there is a TFMR is because of our recognition that the precious metal "markets" are wholly manipulated by the trading desks of The Bullion Banks, often acting as agents for the devious Central Banks. Full Story
Most mainstream money managers and gold analysts believe that US rate hikes are deflationary. In contrast, in the current global economic environment, I see them as inflationary. I made it clear several years ago that I viewed QE as a deflationary force, and tapering as inflationary. The tapering of QE laid the groundwork for a wave of reflation that rate hikes will bring to the world. Does “Mr. Market” agree with me? Full Story
I was raised on a small vegetable farm near Tacoma, Washington. My father hired lots of high school kids to work the fields in the summer. In February of 1968, when the minimum wage was increased from $1.40 an hour to $1.60 an hour, I overheard some of my father’s employees excitedly talking about the 20-cent raise they were about to receive. Full Story
Right now, a lot of investors are wondering about the uncertainty of rising interest rates—the causes, effects and possible ramifications. Many people have been saying for weeks and months now that a rate hike is imminent and that September is the anticipated takeoff. I’ve been skeptical of this, and now a chart from highly-respected market analyst Jeff deGraaf confirms my skepticism. In his words, “the market anticipates >70 percent probability of the Fed NOT raising rates.” Full Story
The Dow has been the biggest obstacle to a rise in precious metals, due to it sucking up a lot of the available value on global markets. There will be no significant silver and gold rally while we have a rallying or a “close to its high” Dow. Full Story
There will be hell to pay when the little guy figures this out. He has worked a lifetime for something that not only has no value but was intended this way to "never pay". The current system was no "mistake" or error, never paying or settling in the end has been the plan since Aug. 15, 1971. The only way to attain settlement prior to the holiday is to do it yourself. In Las Vegas you cash out by turning in your chips, in the game of real life you must turn your savings into something real or you will lose it. Do not fool yourself, just because the rules are stacked against you ...does not mean you need to play their game! Full Story
The ultimate patriotic act is to invest the life savings in Gold & Silver, which does honor to real money, shows disdain for paper merchants who rule the central banks, and forces nations to put forth honest sound money in usage. It is important to recall the 9/11 event, however based in reality, not the official story. Honor should be given to the 2500 victims of the mass murder event. The official story makes far less sense than the Kennedy assassination, while the two events appear to be front and back bookends of the same Fascist takeover of the United States Govt. Full Story
From the very beginning of my epiphany 30 years ago about a silver price manipulation on the COMEX, was the unavoidable conclusion that if prices were artificially depressed as I believed, then at some point a physical shortage must develop. If the price of any commodity were set too low for too long a period of time, then the dynamics of the law of supply and demand would eventually crimp supply and encourage demand to such an extent that a physical shortage must develop and end the manipulation. Full Story
I am personally not yet convinced an ultimate bull market top is in despite the obvious similarities of the recent interim top to 2007 [the first sign in this regard would be a loss of the October 2014 and August 2015 lows]. It could also be a 1998 clone, as we have noted by chart similarities and by global financial similarities (China/Asia). However, in 2007 the stock market did a good job of forecasting the coming “Great Recession” (a sanitized way of saying ‘impulsive unwinding of leverage’). Full Story
According to Wikipedia, Six degrees of separation is the theory that everyone and everything is six or fewer steps away, by way of introduction, from any other person in the world, so that a chain of "a friend of a friend" statements can be made to connect any two people in a maximum of six steps. It was originally set out by Frigyes Karinthy in 1929 and popularized by a 1990 play written by John Guare. Taking it a step further, the theory can be extrapolated to superficially explain what appears to be a ‘shrinking world’ that is really due to technology, but what’s the fun in talking about reality right? Full Story
Buy a few congresspersons, or preferably a president, and obtain a “no-bid” contract to provide something to the government at a huge markup. It could be Tamiflu vaccine, security services in Iraq, TSA scanners, private prisons or so many other schemes. The profits can be enormous to the point that payoffs to politicians are insignificant. This works especially well if you are a member of the financial elite. Full Story
Bottomline: no one has a clue when the Fed will raise rates. This includes Fed officials who continue to make various arguments for not raising rates this week. However, one thing is relatively certain, whenever the Fed does raise rates, the tightening will be short-lived. With over $555 trillion derivatives trading globally based on interest rates, the Fed cannot normalize rates without triggering a crisis that would make 2008 look like a picnic. This is not just idle talk either. Full Story
If the dollar is going higher then it goes without saying that it should continue to make higher highs and higher lows. That is the definition of a rising market. But last month the dollar not only broke the triangle consolidation pattern, but it dropped below the intermediate cycle low in May. That is a failed intermediate cycle. Failed intermediate cycles generally only occur when the larger multi-year cycle is in decline. Full Story
First, there is the manic-depressive crowd. Sometimes (as we are told—we don’t hang out at race tracks) the bettors sometimes get overly excited about a horse with slim chances to win, or get totally unexcited about a strong horse. The track responds by lowering or raising the payout for winning, respectively. The more betting on a horse, the lower the payout. Full Story
Maybe – based on today’s price action in both the metal and in the mining shares ( HUI) but only short term. The shares were actually a bit more convincing than the actual metal, which is something one would like to see anyway if they are looking to be bullish. The HUI opened lower, promptly fell apart but then began gradually climbing back up off the worst levels of the session as the day wore on. By the time of the close, they had managed to eke out a small gain. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 14 September, 2015
Take a good look at the long-term chart shown and let it liberate your imagination. It’s not difficult to see the force of gravity at work here, pulling the S&Ps toward a trendline that lies 250 points below. Notice how, when the futures swooned last autumn, the recovery was much steeper and swifter than the decline. Not this time. Three weeks into a bounce that has been punctuated by manic, fleeting short squeezes, stocks have yet to recoup even half of the losses suffered during the last two weeks of August. Full Story
Axel Merk, head of Merk Investments returns to the show - he thinks the Fed should balk on next week's proposed rate hike.
David Morgan - According to his work the bottom may already be in place in the PMs market.
The following scenario could occur: silver gaps higher several dollars - silver eagles / maple leafs sell out over night - premiums on pre-'65 silver triple. Full Story
To paraphrase Jim Grant, gold’s perceived value in US$ terms is the reciprocal of confidence in the Fed and/or the US economy. That’s why the things I refer to as gold’s true fundamentals are measures of confidence in the Fed and/or the US economy. I’ve been covering these fundamental drivers of the gold price in TSI commentaries for about 15 years. Full Story
This time around, higher interest rates will more likely undermine the aging bull market on Wall Street – making stocks and bonds less attractive to investors – thereby re-igniting the bull market in gold. Full Story
By: Chris Waltzek, GoldSeek Radio - 13 September, 2015
With silver production waning, demand could overwhelm supply. According to his work the bottom may already be in place in the PMs market. The following scenario could occur: silver gaps higher several dollars - silver eagles / maple leafs sell out over night - premiums on pre-'65 silver triple. Full Story
Corporations are using share buyback programs to manipulate earnings, by reducing the float of outstanding shares. This ploy was not as ubiquitous before, but today it is being used rather indiscriminately by companies as a way to boost EPS. This modern form of alchemy turns would-be losses into profits or can be utilized to make modest profits appear to be impressive in nature. We are now in the paradigm of lies and deceit. In these conditions, the truth does not thrive. Full Story
Will they or won’t they? Next week the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates. Many of Wall Street’s worker bees have never seen a rate hike. They were still in school (or skipping school) when the Fed last tightened in 2006. Full Story
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