On a close under 15.90, you might consider a purchase of a 14.00 Put. On a close over 16.25, consider a 19.00 Call. Once you enter, consider writing a further out of the money Put if you bought a Put or writing a further out of the money Call if you bought a Call. By doing so, you will cut down the amount of risk and cost of the original Put or Call while allowing participation via the breakout. Full Story
The inflation that Iain was referring to was of wages, which were averaging an increase of 6.2%, and rising, and stagnation in production, which had declined from an index of 134 to 131. It was this divergence that gave him the opportunity to invent this portmanteau word. It has now passed into more common use to describe an economy that fails to respond to the stimulus of monetary inflation. Full Story
The major gold miners’ stocks are still largely grinding sideways, mired in a bearish sentiment wasteland. Traders tend to assume low stock prices must be righteous, reflecting weak fundamentals rather than poor psychology. But once a quarter earnings seasons’ bright fundamental sunlight parts the obscuring fogs of popular sentiment. The gold miners’ just-reported Q1’18 results prove they remain deeply undervalued. Full Story
As the title notes, we are finally getting that 5th wave down in the GLD after weeks of meandering. Moreover, not only are we getting that 5th wave down, the 3rd wave within this 5th wave down extended beyond the 3.618 extension of waves i and ii down. And, such a strong extension is certainly doing its job in getting even more people souring on this complex. Full Story
There seems to be a lot of misinformation being peddled on the internet about gold and bitcoin. One major misconception is the notion that bitcoin will replace gold as a monetary instrument. Some analysts, once stanch precious metals advocates now turned crypto aficionados, believe in such theories that there is too much gold in the world to be used as money or that it is now just a barbarous relic. Just a year or so ago, these same supposed analysts were criticizing the Mainstream media financial network talking heads for calling gold as a barbarous relic, but now have jumped on the bandwagon. Full Story
We cannot value gold. It does not generate any cash flows, which we could discount. But it doesn’t mean that the price of gold changes randomly. Market sentiment is powerful in the precious metals market – but the same applies to other markets (after all, humans are emotional creatures). However, it does not operate in a void. Full Story
The canary is no longer chirping in a healthy manner and the economy’s coal mine has a toxic gas leak. While the recent Lam Research (LRCX) earnings report was pretty good and there were positive aspects to that of Applied Materials (AMAT), these highly cyclical companies that have been at the front end of the entire economic cycle that had its beginnings in 2013 are showing signs of wear. Full Story
Could a committee of unelected officials increase your household's share of the national debt by $60,000 in a single meeting? In normal times - they could not. However, these are not normal times, and any appearance of normality is deceptive. The committee in question is the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). They met in March of 2018, and as expected, they raised the targeted range for Federal Funds rates by 0.25%. Full Story
The dollar is said to be “soaring,” though I take issue with that characterization for now (see the chart below); 10-yr Treasury yields are also rising, though the yield on the 10-yr is only up about 67 basis points if you measure from January 1, 2017. What’s really going on? Full Story
For more than a week now, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has been trading north of $70 per barrel, a level we haven’t seen since November 2014. Gas prices are likewise trending up, as I’m sure you’ve noticed. According to the American Automobile Association (AAA), the average cost for a gallon of regular gas was $2.88 on May 15, up nearly 25 percent from a year ago. Full Story
Gold bottomed at $1,240.9 on December 12, just as the FOMC meeting occurred, when the U.S. central bankers hiked the federal funds rate once again. Since then, the shiny metal gained almost 6 percent. However, let’s note that gold rallied only in December and January, while since February it has been stuck in a sideways trend until April, when it started to decline. Full Story
In recent months, pundits have cautioned about a flattening yield curve, suggesting it may signal the end of the economic expansion, the end of the bull market, possibly even the end of the world as we know it. There's plenty to worry about in the markets, but in the spirit that knowledge is the enemy of ignorance, let's clear up some myths. Full Story
Part II. with Bix Weir of RoadtoRoot-A continues the review of the ever evolving crypto-revolution, including the ascent of Ethereum and its key competitors. Competing crypto-script EOS is an ERC-20 token, headed by Dan Lahrimer known for DPoS, while Cardano is run by a former key developer of Ethereum. A strategic advantage of Ethereum is the Turing Complete nature of the Solidity language, which allows scripts to run on the token. Full Story
The poster child of a cashless society is Sweden. There are all sorts of anecdotes about beggars accepting cards, churches passing around mobile payments devices instead of collection plates, and banks no longer providing customers with cash. It is no wonder then that Sweden is the only country in the world to show a decline in banknotes and coins in circulation, the quantity of cash outstanding having fallen from 109 billion SEK in 2006 to 56 billion SEK in 2018. If you want to read more, I wrote about the Swedish miracle on my Moneyness blog here. Full Story
From 1966 to 2018 Greenspan has stood up for gold. If the masses hold him in such high regard why don’t they listen to what he says about gold? Gold is money and everything else is credit (debt) – what is so difficult to understand about this simple truth? Full Story
This means that it might not take a return to, say, the 8% Fed Funds rate of 1990 to blow up the system; a much lower rate – spread out over vastly more debt – might do the trick. Same thing with mortgages. In the healthier past a 6% rate on a 30-year mortgage was low enough to excite home buyers. Now 4.5% is pricing homes out of most Americans’ reach. So the exact number on the exact indicator that turns a steady expansion and robust bull market in a brutal bear market will only be known in retrospect. In the meantime we’ll just have to pay attention and hope that the end, when it comes, provides at least a little warning. Full Story
On May 1st, we knew that the precious metals sector was starting a 2-week rally based on cyclical turning points, apex-based reversals, and True Seasonality for May. The rally is over, the profits cashed in… And growing once again thanks to the new short position. What’s in store for the rest of the month and the next few ones? Something epic. Full Story
As part of Merk's in-house research we regularly evaluate a consistent set of charts covering the economy, equities, fixed income, commodities and currencies. The aim is to keep our eyes open and to look through the noise of the headlines, avoiding the distractions of sensationalized click-bait. In sharing this content, we offer a cross-check to your own thinking and aim to add value to your own process. Full Story
Central bankers and politicians will not voluntarily change a system that benefits them. Tax cuts, more spending, out-of-control transfer payments, entitlements, wars, Big Pharma, bankers, and military contractors will make certain that spending, debt and devaluation increase. Full Story
Not sure how much more “radically undervalued” gold could be than it is today. The bullion banks and “market makers” are doing their level best to ensure the undervaluation remains in place – and possibly moving lower. Full Story
As a recovering Gold bug I have great sympathy for what die-hard bitcoin fans are about to experience. Years and years of grinding lower with the occasional wicked spikes up that bear markets are known for. Don’t get me wrong– I’m with the minarchists (e.g. Libertarians) and anarcho-capitalists in my excitement for crypto-currencies and their ability to transact anonymously not to mention their portability allowing you to move your entire net worth across national boundaries with a click of a mouse button. But with the crypto-mania having its blow-off top along with the retail public buying bitcoin it’s clear the top is in for now and it’s time to move onto the next big thing. Full Story
Look, the only reason there is a TFMetalsReport—and we've been at this now for nearly eight years—is that we understand the forces at work in these "markets". Knowing the manipulation and the manipulators allows us insight and perspective that few others possess. So, to that end, we KNOW that an opportunity is soon to be presented to us, whether we are aggressive traders or passive stackers. This is the ONLY way to manage and address the ongoing price manipulation and suppression. All other reactions—fear, anger, despair, etc.—are useless. Full Story
The narrative that the economy continues to improve is a myth, if not intentional mendacious propaganda. The economy can’t possibly improve with the average household living from paycheck to paycheck while trying to service hopeless levels of debt. In fact, the economy will continue to deteriorate from the perspective of every household below the top 1% in terms of income and wealth. Full Story
The precious metals sector is on a long-term buy signal. Short term is on mixed signals. The cycle is up. COT data is supportive for overall higher metal prices. We are holding gold-related ETFs for long-term gain. Full Story
Most analysts in both the gold and mainstream investment communities seem to be in “summer doldrums” mode. They are nervous about stock markets because of rate hikes and the late stage of the business cycle. That’s understandable. Unfortunately, they also seem to be unaware of the fabulous uptrends developing in many gold stocks. Full Story
Is silver going to be making a big move sometime soon? The evidence is building that the answer to that question might be yes. Join Mike Maloney for this latest update on the silver market. Full Story
You might have heard the expression “sell in May and go away.” This investing strategy says that investors might sell equities in May and repurchase them in October, in order to avoid the poor returns historically experienced in the summer months. Mike Matousek, head trader at U.S. Global Investors, tests this theory against a “buy and hold” strategy and explains the recent SPX 500 performance. Full Story
Last week we discussed the fundamentals of Gold, which do not appear bullish at the moment. Real rates (and yields) are rising and investment demand for Gold is flat. That in itself is a temporary but big missing link. However, we are referring to the missing link in the context of intermarket analysis. Gold is an asset that performs best when its outperforming its competitors. That’s true of any asset but especially Gold because it traditionally has been a counter-investment or an anti-investment. While Gold is firmly outperforming Bonds and showing strength against global currencies, it remains neutral to weak against global equities. Full Story
Indeed, the book's subchapter titled "Paper Manipulation" is so expert, specific, and compelling that your secretary/treasurer today asked Rickards and his publisher, Penguin Publishing Group, for permission to share it with you, though it is far longer than excerpts for which reprint permission is customarily granted. Your secretary/treasurer argued that the subchapter is really a historic document, containing information the world simply must have if it ever is to achieve free markets and a more democratic financial system. Full Story
Last week I had the opportunity to sit down with Marco Streng, the wunderkind bitcoin visionary behind Genesis Mining. Genesis, as many of you reading this might know, is the world’s largest cloud bitcoin mining company, with over 2 million customers worldwide. It calls Iceland home, whose cool climate and affordable green energy are ideal for mining newly minted virgin cryptocurrencies. Last year, Genesis helped connect the blockchain sector and traditional capital markets by partnering with HIVE Blockchain Technologies, the first publicly traded digital currency mining firm. Full Story
Turkish gold imports surged due to a sharp increase in investment demand as well as renewed Central bank purchases. While the Chinese and Russian governments have been adding gold to their official reserves over the past several years, Turkey added 86 metric tons to its official holdings in the last seven months of 2017. Full Story
And what does it all mean for the gold market? Well, last week the U.S. dollar retreated from its 2018 peak. It seems that the greenback’s run may be out of steam. Although the interest rate differential supports dollar (and investors shouldn’t neglect this fact), other factors, including the political landscape, are rather bearish for the greenback. The mixed balance may cause gold to remain in a relatively narrow trading range, at least unless its fundamentals or sentiment change radically. Full Story
Copper had one of it best years ever in 2017, rising 27% on the back of supply disruptions and steady demand from China, by far the largest copper consumer. Commodities analysts are usually wrong about copper supply, always predicting a glut in the market for the ubiquitous metal used in everything from piping for plumbing to wiring in houses, to components of electric vehicles. What they fail to account for is the inevitable stoppages at the major copper mines due mostly to strikes and weather problems. Full Story
So, if you chose to enter a trade without a fully laid out plan (whether you are following an analyst or not), don’t blame someone else when it does not go your way. It is only your fault. Learn what you did wrong, and correct it in the future. But, for heaven’s sake, take responsibility for your actions. It is your money, and no one is going to care about your money more than you. So, it is your job to protect it. Full Story
Three times in the past three years has the RSI (relative strength index) for the USD moved above 70. In late 2015, the USD traded up to 100.50 with RSI briefly above 70; it then reversed and went directly to 92. (It did not pass GO and it did not collect $200.) Immediately following the U.S. elections in November, the Trump victory set off such a sublime celebration of U.S. dollar supremacy that it screamed from 97 to 104 where there were two brief interludes above RSI 70 but with the first price peak at around 99 but the second one at 103. Full Story
The best performing metal this week was palladium, up 2.14 percent. Physical demand is tight as holdings in metal backed ETFs are being withdrawn and then lent to users as one-week lease rates are currently at 5 percent, higher than Treasury yields. Gold is set for its first weekly gain in a month as the dollar fell amid speculation that the Fed might be less aggressive in raising interest rates than expected, writes Bloomberg. Full Story
Lynette Zang, Chief Market Analyst at ITM Trading makes her show debut with in depth analysis on the risk of global hyperinflation. Thousands of years of monetary history reveals, only gold money is inflation resistant, unlike fiat currency that inevitably inflates away into oblivion. Tim Draper, Silicon Valley V.C. legend, author of How to be The Startup Hero, founder of Draper University and Bitcoin expert makes his show debut. In only 5 years, Draper University is already setting the standard in education, with several success stories including a billion dollar crypto-token company. Full Story
It is my privilege now to welcome in Craig Hemke of the TF Metals Report. Craig runs one of the most highly respected and well-known websites in the entire industry and has been covering the precious metals for a decade now, and he puts out some of the best analysis on banking schemes, the flaws of Keynesian economics, and evidence of manipulation in the gold and silver markets. Full Story
Friday was the day when silver and mining stocks were likely to reverse based on their triangle-apex-based turning points and today is the day of gold’s apex-based reversal. Therefore, it seems likely that gold, silver and mining stocks are forming the final top for this short-term upswing, or that it is already in place. The problem with the reversal scenario is that the previous week was one big bearish reversal in the USD Index. Weekly reversals are significant and thus odds of a move lower in the USD increased substantially. This means more upside in metals and miners. What should one do with the profits from the current long position? Full Story
It probably came as no surprise that U.S. President Donald Trump pulled the U.S. out of the Iran nuclear deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), a deal that had been signed by six nations—U.S., China, Russia, United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Iran. The U.S. (Trump) pulled out despite the other signers of the deal saying it was a bad decision and even against his own intelligence and defence officials who had reiterated that Iran was compliant and that pulling out would be viewed by the wider world as betrayal by the U.S. European leaders were quoted as saying to Donald Trump that “You’re not the economic boss of us.” Full Story
Last weekend, I wrote an article entitled "The Market Is Going To Crash." The response to that article garnered over 55,000 hits on Seeking Alpha, which is about 4-5 times the reads that I normally get on a stock market update. This gives me anecdotal insight into where the overall sentiment is in the market today. It seems most investors are leaning quite bearish, and are looking for articles that support their own bearish bias. Full Story
During March and April a number of articles appeared at precious-metals-focused web sites describing the silver market’s Commitments of Traders (COT) situation as extremely bullish. However, this unequivocally bullish interpretation overlooked aspects of the COT data that were bearish for silver. Taking all aspects of the data into consideration, my interpretation at the time (as presented in TSI commentaries) was that silver’s COT situation was neutral and that the setup for a large rally was not yet in place. Full Story
In 1999, I began saying the tech bubble would eventually spark a recession. Timing was unclear because stock bubbles can blow way bigger than we can imagine. Then the yield curve inverted, and I said recession was certain. I was early in that call, but it happened. In late 2006, I began highlighting the subprime crisis, and subsequently the yield curve again inverted, necessitating another recession call. Again, I was early, but you see the pattern. Full Story
The price of oil is rising, which is obviously good news for those who sell it to the rest of us. Russia in particular seems to be enjoying the current trend, so much so that — if I’m understanding this correctly – Moscow is now receiving more in taxes than it’s spending. This is producing something called a “budget surplus,” which is a kind of currency war weapon that can be deployed to improve a country’s geopolitical position. Full Story
We noted Amigo #1’s eyes closed as stocks vs. gold took a big plunge in early February and again in March. This has actually set a lower highs, lower lows downtrend in 2018, and the swings have been very dynamic. Right now we are on an up swing and if you are a gold bug and this ratio rises above the March high please prepare to take caution, as the macro would be moving against you, at least relative to risk ‘on’ assets. But for now the lower highs and lower lows daily trend is intact. Full Story
Since 1981, interest rates have been in a falling trend. Last week, we said this trend will continue, and the present blip up in rates is just a correction. We did not argue technical analysis, nor quantity of dollars, nor the general price level. Full Story
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