By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 18 February, 2011
When the Tunisian, then the Egyptian revolutions succeeded we were all surprised. Many believed that at last democracy had won in the Middle East. When the King of Jordan changed his government a feeling of contagion set in. Then we heard of riots in Yemen, Libya, Bahrain, Iran and we now look at the entire Middle East as ripe for contagious revolutions. The question hangs in the air, “Are these revolutions or just exuberant demonstrations?” Full Story
As per the World Gold Council, precious metals demand will stay high this year with growing Indian and Chinese appetite for the yellow metal, but fresh buying in developed markets of jewelry will depend on economic outlook. At this juncture, market news suggests positive momentum for precious metals. Investment and industrial demand are set to witness an upsurge in the upcoming months. Let’s have an outlook on the present status of precious metals market. Full Story
It is starting again. It is a phenomenon that occurs more regularly now, especially with daily talk of massive imbalances right along with a massive boost in activity. More and more people are scratching their heads wondering what gives. Once again, economics has become a debating society. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 18 February, 2011
The inevitable periodic selloffs in the general stock markets indiscriminately hammer all stocks lower. But they pose a special magnified risk to commodities stocks. In addition to weighing on this sector directly, stock selloffs ignite fast US dollar rallies. This rapidly drives dollar-denominated commodities prices lower, amplifying the selling pressure faced by commodities stocks. Full Story
Many of you have heard the story of the Grasshopper who sang all Summer, while food was plentiful, but stored none of it away, quite unlike the Ant who busily stored food away, throughout that same summer. Come winter the Grasshopper starved and froze, while the Ant was well fed and secure with his underground stores. Moral: The Ant Realistically Addressed an Unpleasant Coming Reality while the Grasshopper remained in Lethal Denial. Full Story
There have been numerous reports of bullion shortages in many parts around the world, along with rising premiums. And the two explanations – we’re running out of gold! and, it’s just a manufacturing bottleneck – are at odds with one another. So, who’s right? Full Story
By: The Energy Report and Ed Sterck - 18 February, 2011
BMO Capital Markets Mining Analyst Ed Sterck projects a very moderate $60/lb. uranium price in 2011, but that shouldn't stop you from investing in the uranium space. "This is a sector that is very prone to sentiment and, at the moment, the sentiment is building toward the possibility of a price spike," he says. He also expects to see more M&A activity in the sector, particularly among uranium juniors with reasonably priced projects. Read on for more of Ed's sector insights in this exclusive interview with The Energy Report. Full Story
The crux of this is that our leaders at the privately owned Fed and with the US government have their eyes set on the big money with US pension funds. They are not going to let this money get away from their control and use. Therefore, we can bank on moves in 2011 to make pension funds generally and state pension funds particularly subject to federal guidelines on investments. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 18 February, 2011
I was, unfortunately, sober enough to realize that I needed to get a lot drunker if I was going to withstand the horror of reading of even more economic fallout of the Federal Reserve’s disastrous decisions to create So Freaking Much Money (SFMM). Full Story
If we had to pinpoint a time during the last 10 years when the gold price broke out into a full on bull market, it was in 2005 when the $500 level was clearly broken. That was a key level at the time and this break out coincided with the launching of gold’s ETF, GLD. Full Story
The current intermediate cycle has rolled over and is making lower lows and lower highs. The current daily cycle has formed a swing high and is in jeopardy of rolling over into a left translated cycle. If the dollar breaks below the November intermediate bottom of 75.63 it will be an incredibly bearish sign as not only will the current intermediate cycle have topped in only 4 weeks but the larger yearly cycle will also have topped in only 4 weeks. Full Story
Ten, even five years ago, precious-metals analysts thought rising incomes in Asia would see gold substituted for financial services or consumer goods. But China's private demand has more than doubled as a proportion of gross household savings. Based on the World Gold Council's latest data – issued today in the market-development and research group's new Gold Demand Trends report – India's private consumption jumped in 2010 to a new all-time record of more than 963 tonnes. Full Story
By: Michael Pento, Senior Economist at Euro Pacific Capital - 17 February, 2011
To counter the increasing demands that government reduce its micromanagement of the economy, last week the Obama Administration offered a fig leaf in the form of a white paper entitled "Reforming America's Housing Finance Market." In addition to marking the official end of the Bush era "ownership society," where increasing the level of home ownership was a national priority, the document contains a recommended regulatory overhaul of the Federal Housing Authority (FHA) as well as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (together known as Government Sponsored Enterprises "GSE's"), that intends to bring the share of government owned home loans from the current 95% to 40% over the next 5-7 years. Full Story
The price of money is rising, especially as it relates to time. With inflation fears growing and governments local and federal looking toward record deficit and financing requirements, strain is beginning to take its toll on the bond markets. Treasuries are rising, and muni bonds, which are generally very slow in their price action, have reached peak volatility. Full Story
By: The Gold Report and Bob Casaceli - 17 February, 2011
The Cordillera del Condor region, located on the contentious Ecuador-Peru border, has proven to be rife with precious metals and political risk. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, Geologist Bob Casaceli delves deep beneath the earth's crust to explain why this dynamic region's formation points to further discoveries in the area. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 17 February, 2011
Immediately, I can feel the beginnings of another Wild Mogambo Outrage (WMO) stirring within me, building into a raging anger at the Federal Reserve for creating so much money, and thus so much inflation, that the currency of my country has been so ruined that it contains a lousy 2 cents – 2 cents! – of buying-power left of that original 1913 dollar, which had (as I surmise) 100 cents of buying power. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 17 February, 2011
Every time we read or hear about the supposed economic recovery, or about how the Fed has raised its “growth” target for the next quarter, we are reminded that the nation’s retail sector — like its real estate sector — remains an absolute, unmitigated, Katie-bar-the-door disaster. Yesterday it got even worse when Borders Group declared bankruptcy. Full Story
Every financial decision you might make today is now a speculation on what will happen to interest rates. So pretty much every story a financial journalist might write starts and ends with central-bank cant, too. Because outside the inaction of each monthly vote, central-bank policy is a mass of half-truths and bunk. Full Story
The numbers for silver demand are starting to make some market-watchers nervous. The U.S. Mint sold over 6.4 million silver Eagles in January, more than any other month since the coin’s introduction in 1986. China’s net imports of silver quadrupled in 2010, to 122.6 million ounces, roughly 13.7% of global production. Meanwhile, mine production can’t meet worldwide demand; the only way demand gets fulfilled is from scrap supply. Full Story
America continues to face a true national tragedy as tens of millions of unemployed people have been literally discarded because of big business outsourcing to China, India, and elsewhere. Worse yet, the unemployment statistics are manipulated every month in a cruel hoax to make it look like the unemployment rate is far lower than it really is. A high unemployment rate is embarrassing and would depress workers and business psychology, so workers are surgically removed from the labor force and hidden from view. Full Story
Why is Silver continuing to outperform Gold? The Silver/Gold ratio tends to lead or follow the stock market. Risk assets are outperforming. Silver is outperforming Gold as a risk asset. It is not outperforming for monetary reasons. That occurs when both Gold and Silver advance but Silver outperforms Gold. This is one of several reasons why bugs should be wary of Silver in the near-term. Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 16 February, 2011
Rather than have designation to what the Fed is doing we believe to a great extent the term quantitative easing will fade from the major media and Fed announcements, probably to be replaced by a term such as accommodation. As time passes more and more professionals and investors will realize that this massive creation of money and credit is destroying the capital structure and the dollar. Other countries are emulating the Fed in various ways and degrees and that is why the USDX, the dollar index versus six major currencies has not plunged as it should have. It is lower, but it is not a true reflection of what is really in progress. Gold has spent the last 2-1/2 years directly competing with the dollar for supremacy as the world’s reserve currency and hands down the dollar has lost in an accelerating flight to quality to gold and silver. Full Story
The opium wars do not belong to the glorious episodes of Western history. Rather, they were instances of shameful behavior the West still has not lived down. Mercantilist governments resented the perpetual drain of silver from West to East in payment for Oriental goods (tea, silk, porcelain) that were in high demand in the Occident, facing low demand in the Orient for Occidental goods. From the mid-17th century more than 9 billion Troy ounces or 290 thousand metric tons of silver was absorbed by China from European countries in exchange for Chinese goods. Full Story
In short, the problem of having more cash than ideas is not one that Mr. Buffett has had to deal with since he went on a buying binge in 2008. And while it is not known to what degree Buffett has reduced his personal exposure to equities, that Berkshire cannot find any equity bargains and is starting to hoard cash in a relatively big way is self explanatory: sell. Full Story
In arguing food inflation is not the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) fault, Fed Chairman Bernanke points the finger at everyone but him. Just as with a lot of Bernanke’s policies, his argument may hold in an academic setting, but the real world is a bit more complicated. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 16 February, 2011
Being a Big Silver Buff (BSB) like I am, I note the ups and downs of silver. Lately, it’s been mostly the downs. This strange downtrend in the silver price makes me look like an idiot after I so arrogantly Highly, Highly Recommended (HHR) that people buy silver, buy silver, buy silver all these years, and I’m pretty testy about it, too. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 15 February, 2011
The first part of our series on the validity of Technical analysis, covered the changes in types and location of investors. It also detailed those markets called gold markets, but which are not directly of fully involved in the buying and selling of gold. This laid the foundation of why technical analysis has not proved as accurate as some maintain. Many investors may believe that all one needs to be successful in a market is technical analysis. We would disagree with that when we look at the markets in gold and silver. Full Story
Can the members of the Golden Tripod regain their sanity and work to bring down debt levels? Starvation is pretty much a done deal now, so the next question is: Will starvation be followed by war? Suggestion: The answer is not in the head and shoulders top fairy tale formation on gold. The answer is in the actions of the Golden Tripod. Will the bond market be imploded by the banksters while margins on gold futures are cranked to halt the price rises of wheat, rice, and all foods, and cause those still under the spell of paper dollar account valuations to hand all their gold to the banksters just in time for the starvation phase of the crisis to move to the war phase? Full Story
By: Jeff Berwick – The Dollar Vigilante - 15 February, 2011
You could not have written a better script for gold. It is almost as if the US Government and the Federal Reserve are trying to destroy the dollar and demolish the country – and taking most of the western world with it. At the beginning of this gold bull market, in 2000, no one had ever heard of Barack Obama or Ben Bernanke. But, 11 years later, and an outright socialist profligate spender is President of the US and a College professor who believes in crackpot Keynesian theories about how money printing can save economies is the Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Yet, it is now 11 years into the most consistent bull market on earth, and hardly anyone owns gold. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 15 February, 2011
Many analysts are convinced that silver is going to outperform gold this year and for years to come. Are they right? We don't know. What we do know is that: a) most of the recent silver-related commentary has focused on silver's upside potential and has not mentioned, or has glossed over, silver's downside risk, and b) silver bulls are generally ignoring the relationship between the silver/gold ratio and the economic growth theme. These two points go together in that silver's downside risk is linked to the potential for the 'growth trade' to collapse. Full Story
With the whopper of a panic in 2008, we now have a Dow upward correction in gold terms once again, sprung as before by a MACD divergence. Add the weekly EMA 100 of this ratio to our growing list of indicators to watch going forward. We are obviously in a new cycle that is doing many of the same things the late great ‘Inflation Bull R.I.P. 2003-2007’ did. The question now is in timing. Full Story
After two years of issuing “sell” ratings on equities and making bearish pronouncements on the year-ahead economic outlook, Wall Street has finally turned bullish again. Recent analyst polls reveal the consensus outlook for 2011 is for another year of double-digit stock market gains. Even stalwart bears are starting to sound a more optimistic note on the prospects for continued economic recovery in 2011 and beyond. Full Story
By: Dr. Ron Paul, U.S. Congressman - 15 February, 2011
For the past three decades, the Federal Reserve has been given a dual mandate: keeping prices stable and maximizing employment. This policy relies not only on the fatal conceit of believing in the wisdom of supposed experts, but also on numerical chicanery. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 15 February, 2011
I have to admit that I was stunned that Fed Credit (the magical fairy dust from which money appears out of thin air) went up last week by a huge $19 billion, which the Fed itself used to buy $18.4 billion in government debt. In one week! In One Freaking Week (OFW)!! Full Story
In a guest commentary here yesterday, our friend Erich Simon used grocery prices from the good old days to buttress his conclusion that $2100 was the “right” price for an ounce of gold. The essay provoked a lively discussion, including the interesting note below from “Radek,” who’d rather own bullion shares than the actual metal. Full Story
By: The Gold Report and Brien Lundin - 14 February, 2011
Gold in the Carolinas? "Absolutely," says Jefferson Financial President and CEO Brien Lundin, who also publishes the Gold Newsletter. It's just one region where historic discoveries, ignored when gold prices were low, are now being re-examined with modern exploration techniques. The results, he says, are promising. Learn more about his take on the economy, the seasonal effect on gold prices and the "frothy" metals market in this exclusive interview with The Gold Report. Full Story
By: John Browne, Senior Market Strategist at Euro Pacific Capital - 14 February, 2011
Despite last week's confusing employment data, the increasing threat of another decline in home values, political uncertainty in Egypt and the broader Middle East, and sharp pullbacks in some emerging markets such as Brazil, US stock markets continued to rise. It sometimes seems that Wall Street exists in a bubble that is well-insulated from the rough and tumble of the outside world. But, in what may be a harbinger that America's era of prosperity is winding down, the hallowed New York Stock Exchange, long the epicenter of American economic might, is expected to be bought by Germany's Deutsche Boerse. When the king is so unceremoniously uncrowned, it won't be long before investors notice how shabbily dressed he really is. Full Story
In the spirit of my recent observations concerning our corrupt bourgeoisie’s penchant for turning up the heat in order to get what they want, and that we could be very close to a turning point in this regard, it would be fitting to see the seeds of revolution planted within sight of our racial origins (Northern Africa), considering this time around the drama will encompass the globe on a profound level. Along these lines, one must wonder if this is the real McCoy, or just a dress rehearsal for things to accelerate to more dangerous levels next year, within biblical dimensions during 2012. Full Story
Individual stock cycles in price and time are the building blocks of major market index cycles. Historically it has been more effective to study stock market cycles using major market indexes as opposed to individual stocks. More recently, since the Federal Reserve has taken up their third mandate mantra of manipulating global markets into a “virtuous” inflationary circle for financial assets, questionable activity in the futures and options markets have distorted the major developed country indexes. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman and Erich Simon - 14 February, 2011
Our correspondent and occasional guest essayist Erich Simon has been talking up gold for as long as he can remember. Recently, however, after working some comparison numbers based on grocery bills we would have paid 40 years ago, he discovered that gold’s powerful rise was somewhat anemic before Helicopter Ben opened the money jets. He further notes that our apparent overestimation of gold’s strength is no accident – that even the most astute bullion investors have been fooled by our cunning masters. Full Story
The upheaval in the Middle East has done nothing for gold. It looks like gold is ready for more downside action. A move to $1305 would not be good. The “Penny Arcade Index” is still okay so any downside activity shouldn’t last for too long. Full Story
1st Hour: Headline news & the Market Weatherman Report. Spotlight Stock Picks. Host Chris Waltzek & Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster discussion and answer listener's questions. 2nd hour: Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Dr. Stephen Leeb, Leeb Capital Management Full Story
Back in 2004 I made the momentous decision to sell my house in a real estate market that was still spiralling northward rather than wait for it to peak and then try to bail out as it declined. I knew that my cautious inclinations would cause me to miss out on further upside gains, but I saw the writing on the wall – two walls, in fact. I realized it was just a matter of time before the housing bubble burst and believed that commodities were about to take off. Full Story
Gold is in an historic Bull Market because most nations are printing their paper currencies like they are going out of style (and maybe they are) as each nation tries to battle off the massive deflationary backdrop of debt that has permeated most of the world. This surge of debt monetization – this devaluing of the U.S. Dollar for one – has set the scene for a parabolic rise in $Gold to $1860, or higher, over the coming months before an intermediate-term correction takes place. Let me explain. Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 13 February, 2011
The discontent and seeds of rebellion existed for a long time in Egypt as it has in many other countries. The major powers of the world were content with Mr. Mubarak, especially the US, which gave him $60 billion over 30 years and allowed him to move $70 billion over that period into secret bank accounts in England, Switzerland and Europe, while Egyptians lived on the edge of starvation over that time frame. Both the US and UK never saw a dictator they didn’t like. Full Story
Ron Paul has written a book, End the Fed, well known in these circles. We have a better idea: Stiff the Fed. In case you missed it, the financial cable network CNBC actually produced something informative a little while ago. It listed our 15 biggest creditors, the entities to which the captive citizens of the United Snakes of America owes money. Full Story
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors - 13 February, 2011
This week I find myself in Bangkok, and I must admit to enjoying the experience a great deal, so much so that I am going to preview a portion of my coming book, Endgame, so that I can go back out and play tourist. Next week I get back to my more or less regular schedule, but I think you will enjoy this first portion of chapter six, where we look at an important paper from the Bank of International Settlements on “The Future of Public Debt.” It is not a pretty one. Full Story
Ben Bernanke took over as Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System on February 1, 2006. On February 9, 2011, his free ride ended. On that day, Paul Ryan's House Budget Committee grilled him. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 13 February, 2011
I was planning to go into a bizarre and irrational rant against JP Morgan for its obvious scam of manipulating the silver market by massive naked-short positions, and including in my Loud Mogambo Diatribe (LMD) the scumbag government and “regulators” who are supposed to keep this kind of fraud out of the commodities markets. Full Story
Another week marred by gaining indices who’s idea of a correction is a slightly lower close once in every six or eight trading days. It’s not like the indices are flying, their just meandering higher. We called for a correction and were quickly proven wrong and we reversed positions before too much damage occurred. I don’t want to jinx anyone, but it’s like throwing darts here. Wherever it lands, it’s a winner. Most stocks are moving higher and all our swing trading positions are green which is rare. We are invested more heavily than we have been in a while and kicking butt!! Full Story
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