One of the topics about the Chinese gold market that has not been fully illuminated is the “gold” on the 16 Chinese commercial banks’ balance sheets. At the end of 2015 the aggregated “precious metals assets” on the bank balance sheets accounted for 598 billion yuan (RMB), which translates into approximately 2,682 tonnes of gold – if all the precious metals were gold related, which is very likely. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 18 November, 2016
The gold miners just finished reporting their third-quarter results, which proved very impressive. While this small contrarian sector is now languishing in the doghouse following a brutal post-election selloff, the gold miners’ fundamentals are strengthening. Lower costs and higher gold prices led to surging operating cash flows and profits. The major gold miners are great fundamental bargains for contrarians today. Full Story
In conclusion, Trumpenomics as proposed (though it is obviously not yet in its final form) will lead to accelerating price inflation, accompanied not by better conditions for the “basket of deplorables” as Hillary Clinton described Trump’s supporters, but their further impoverishment through the realisation of the wealth-transfer mechanism of price inflation. Stagflationary conditions are already on the cards, but as a matter of simple economics it is being accelerated further by Trump’s intended plans. Full Story
Bill Murphy of GATA.org rejoins the show with comments on the global currency issues. The Indian rupee is the next domino to drop as 86% of its paper money was withdrawn from circulation resulting in widespread economic chaos. Minister Narendra Modi enforced an anti-graft measure to ban high-value currency in Asia's third-largest economy. 90% of daily transactions involve paper currency, compared to merely 30% in the US. Full Story
Countries such as Saudi Arabia who depend almost entirely on oil are going to be in serious trouble. One positive development from this is Saudi will be forced to engage in less mischief; they are one of the biggest exporters of terrorism, and now that their coffers are running dry they are going to face lean times. These are not our views; an article penned in the New York Times strongly supports this line of thinking. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 18 November, 2016
There is as yet insufficient evidence to speculate on whether copper’s impressive post-election leap will turn into a belly flop, or instead prove to be the booster stage of a much bigger rally. Whichever is the case — and I strongly doubt there will be any in-betweens — it’s inconceivable that this legendarily sensitive economic barometer will guess the outcome incorrectly. Inflation, or deflation? Growth or economic stagnation? Keep your eyes focused on ‘doc’ copper and you cannot miss an important turn — assuming one comes, and however unexpected — toward inflation following 35 years of the opposite. Full Story
One of the greatest pastimes I enjoyed as a youth was reading books, and until adolescence, when I began to focus on history, my favorite reading genre was horror. Mary Shelley's "Frankenstein," Bram Stoker's "Dracula,” and "The Mummy" by Anne Rice were all books that resided in the bookshelf in our family room. Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital - 17 November, 2016
The election of Ronald Reagan in 1980 provides the best recent precedent for the unexpected triumph of Donald Trump (in my opinion, the other post-war Republican takeovers of the White House --Ike in '52, Nixon '68, and W. in '00 - did not constitute a real break from the status quo.) As many people expect great changes from Trump, it is worthwhile to look at what the Reagan Revolution actually wrought. Full Story
Where to go now? What is the next plan of action, now that the West has continued on with its anti-globalist trend? With the election of Trump, we are far from out of danger and now, the real hard work begins. Now is the time to keep Trump on the straight and narrow path. It is time to ensure that he holds himself accountable to his campaign promises and it is time to keep a close eye and check on what unfolds as he begins his presidency. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 17 November, 2016
The world is sitting at the edge of a massive deflationary cliff. Even though Central Banks are desperately trying to keep the world’s financial assets from plunging down into the great depression below, signs suggest they are losing the battle. One critical sign is the peak and decline of International Reserves. Hugo Salinas Price has been keeping an eye on International Reserves for quite some time. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 17 November, 2016
Thursday will be a big day for the kind of manufactured ‘news’ that can move markets. Fed clown-in-chief (and lame duck) Yellen is scheduled to speak at 10:00 a.m. Eastern, presumably to obfuscate whatever genius plan the central bank is thought to be mulling for December. You can bet the news media will be glued to their monitors for this momentous event, eager as always to have their expectations managed, and that they will get a headline out of it even if all she does is mumble and drool for 15 minutes. Full Story
In free markets, the most important dynamic is supply and demand. In capital markets, the most important factor is the cost of credit; and in capitalism’s end game, the cost of credit is even more important because it’s the cost of credit that determines when the end game will end—and, today, the cost of credit, i.e. the interest rate, is now moving higher, a trend exacerbated by Trump’s recent victory which threatens market stability. Full Story
In short, if investors believe the future is bright, with businesses increasing investments and with the Fed’s magic wand doing wonders to keep inflationary pressures just right without causing too much of a stir, gold might not rise in value. If however, investors believe that this tug of war between the different forces will ultimately get the Fed to be ‘behind the curve,’ i.e. inflationary pressures to increase; or if investors believe the stock market might experience another bear market, then gold may continue to be a worthy diversifier. Full Story
Bankers and politicians have had a mutually rewarding relationship for ages. Bankers create money and loan it out at interest, which can be very profitable. Trouble is, creating money electronically or with a printing press, which is what central banks do, is counterfeiting. In return for a share of the newly-created money, government lets banks get away with it. Government gets bigger, bankers get richer. Full Story
Summing up, it seems that the outlook for the precious metals market remains bearish for the following weeks, but it’s no longer bearish for the following days. The relative strength of gold, silver and mining stocks compared to the rally in the USD Index has bullish implications and so does the mining stocks’ strength relative to gold. Full Story
If we look at earnings and the underlying fundamentals, then it is easy to state that the stock market should have crashed a long time ago. Earnings are tepid and in many cases were it not for aggressive share buyback programs the outlook would look even more terrible. Regarding the economy, it is the strong stock market that helps support the illusion that the economy is doing well. Unofficially the unemployment rate is north of 20%. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 16 November, 2016
The real interest rate is one of gold’s true fundamentals, with a rising real interest rate exerting downward pressure on the gold price and a falling real interest rate exerting upward pressure on the gold price. However, it is important to keep in mind that the real interest rate is just one of several fundamental drivers of the gold price. Full Story
I look all around me, and those that were bullish have now turned bearish, and those that were bearish are now drooling and foaming at the mouth. What happened to all the bulls? When everyone turns bearish, especially after an impulsive structure off the 2015 lows has completed, and starts looking to further lows in the complex, it means the time is approaching for a potential reversal. One of our astute members put it best when he said “when fear of missing out turns into fear of being in, you know you're close to a bottom!” Full Story
As the dust settles from the U.S. presidential election, multitudes of political analysts and news commentators continue to scratch their heads wondering “what went wrong?” The collective question they’re asking of course is in reference to the candidate who was elected President. This is the wrong question to ask, however. What they should be asking is what led millions of (mostly) middle class voters to rise up against the favored establishment candidate and voice their disapproval with the incumbent party. As is normally the case with anything relating to politics, the answer is to be found in the realm of economics. Full Story
Instead of being fixated with the ECB’s continual disastrous and extended QE policy, perhaps some financial journalists could bring themselves to asking Mario Draghi some questions about the ECB gold reserves at the next ECB press briefing, questions such as the percentage split in storage distribution between the 5 ECB gold storage locations, why ECB gold is being held in New York, why is there no physical audit of the gold by the ECB, why does the ECB not publish a weight list of gold bar holdings, and do the ECB or its national central bank agents intervene into the gold market using ECB gold reserves. Full Story
I address this essay to two groups. One group is those among the liberty movement, who believe that there’s nothing wrong with inequality. These are often Objectivists, who unknowingly defend a regime that artificially suppresses working people. The other group is those among the Left who still call themselves liberals. They say they don’t like inequality, but nevertheless continue to support this regime, and they often demand more of its interventions. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 16 November, 2016
There are good reasons for the stock market to have celebrated Trump’s victory with a strong rally. For one, a Republican Congress will be able cut taxes on small businesses, particularly the biggest, most job-asphyxiating tax of them all — Obamacare — when legislators convene in January. With respect to protectionism, only Trump’s detractors, including the Wall Street Journal op-ed page, seem scared. Full Story
While there should be a relationship between real supply, demand, and price – it is obscure at best. The directional movement of world price depends on how the large commercial traders on the COMEX decide to make it. Short term, if it’s profitable for them to move the price lower, they will do it. And when they are positioned to let the price move up they will let it. Long-term, that which is ripe for disruption always disrupts eventually. We saw a glimpse of this between August 2010 and April 2011 when ‘price discovery’ briefly, yet undoubtedly shifted away from paper to physical. Full Story
Donald Trump’s victory came as the first surprise for many around the world. The reaction in the markets was the second surprise. Investors got what they expected for a few hours overnight as the ballot results came in; stocks were crushed and metals spiked higher. By mid-morning on Wednesday, however, stocks were surging and metals rolled over. Full Story
By: John Browne, Senior Economic Consultant at Euro Pacific Capital - 15 November, 2016
Brexit and the Donald Trump presidential victory should rightly be viewed as the most significant international developments of the last decade. Both events illustrate a breaking down of globalist order and they both threaten the entrenched elite that has so ruthlessly and painfully hurt the middle and working classes. But as Trump supporters revel in the largely unanticipated victory, Brexit faces a serious new challenge. Full Story
With stock market bullishness at extreme levels and the gold permabears out in force, a sharp rally in gold from here would certainly catch almost everyone by surprise. So, could a rally be coming on the days ahead? Perhaps you should just keep your eyes focused upon the yuan. It may once again be foreshadowing what is to come next. Full Story
Silver and gold prices erratically increase along with debt. Given that silver prices are near the low end of their 20 year “megaphone” pattern, expect much higher silver prices. Further, the cost of production is increasing rapidly and the ore quality is declining. Expect prices to increase based on limited supply. Given the precariousness of the central bankers’ fiat currency Ponzi Schemes and the coming realizations about the intrinsic value of paper investments and debt instruments, silver and gold prices should move much higher in the next five years due to heavy demand. Full Story
As readers might have saw on these pages, since 2014 I’ve been investigating the inventory audits of the US official gold reserves, which should proof the existence of the metal that embodies the credibility of the world reserve currency. My first article showed the official narrative: all the bars of in total 8,134 tonnes of gold spread over depositories at Fort Knox, West Point, Denver and New York, have been carefully counted, weighed, assayed and inventoried in between 1974 and 2008. Full Story
Karl Denninger, publisher of The Market Ticker, makes his show debut with dire financial warnings for the listening audience. Our guest cautioned readers of the impending 2008 crisis a year in advance; today US equities are more overvalued then at anytime since the year 2000. Given the impending rate hike at the upcoming Dec. FOMC meeting, the increased costs associated with borrowing could burst the bond market bubble. Cost-push inflation could threaten the highly leveraged global economy, where virtually every financial instrument, even reserve currencies are exposed. Full Story
The $1225 - $1200 zone is decent support. It’s not huge support, but it’s decent. I was a modest buyer in the $1220 area this week, after being a seller at $1305 - $1320 last week. I think a lot of people believed that the election of Trump would send gold skyrocketing, but I called gold “vulnerable” going into election night. The bottom line is that Trump is “supportive” for gold. His economic plan will increase the size of an already out of control US government debt. His infrastructure spending plans are inflationary. Full Story
President-Elect Trump may have just unwittingly sowed an equity market draw-down which will send even more protesters into the streets of America. Donald Trump's stated economic policies are clearly pro-growth and if he manages to implement his pro-business, anti-regulation agenda, in the longer term they have the potential to surpass the bold and successful initiatives of Ronald Reagan. However, in the near term he has already unknowingly just shot himself in the foot. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambu Guru - 15 November, 2016
I can hear you asking “What in the hell is the point? Is there a point to any of this? Do you ever have a point, you moron? Or is it that you are willing to marginally extend your own life by a few years by harvesting your children?” Yes, there is a point, as I will now make, since that you have asked so nicely. The point is that nobody can stop the monetary insanity, and the Federal Reserve and the other central banks must keep creating cash and credit until it is, literally, no longer possible. Full Story
Like their British counterparts, who voted in June to cut ties with the European Union (EU), American voters resoundingly rejected globalism last week, calling into question the United States’ involvement in military alliances such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)—which is 72 percent funded by U.S. tax dollars—and international trade deals, from the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 15 November, 2016
‘Doc Copper’ is widely viewed as being able to predict upswings and slumps in the economy of manufacturing and real goods, so we should want to get this one in particular right. The post-election rally in Copper futures is on track for putting up one of the strongest months in the past decade. Buyers have retrenched somewhat in the last few days, but are they spent? This is unlikely in my estimation, since the rally has already generated a robust ‘impulse leg’ on the monthly chart, surpassing the two labeled peaks (see inset) we require. Under the rules of the Hidden Pivot Method, this specifically implies that any pullback short of the 2016 low, 1.9355, is merely corrective and should be viewed as a consolidation for a second, powerful leg up. Full Story
The greed-diseased and power-obsessed Deep State oligarchs hate you for your freedom and love you for your money, and they are accelerating their plans to strip you of both. There are two things standing in their way: cash, and precious metals. The oligarchs are doing everything in their power to falsely discredit both of them in the eyes of the people. Cash and precious metals are physical manifestations of financial and human liberty. Full Story
Since taping my second epic, 30-plus minute Audioblog in three days Saturday morning, “Manipulation/Idiocy/Hubris Conflagration,” a LOT has occurred worldwide, in response to Tuesday’s “shocking” election result; essentially all of it negative, with the only real “positives” being the unquantifiable hope that Trump can reverse a rapidly collapsing economy, powerful geopolitical tensions, and escalating social discontent with the wave of his magic pen. Full Story
Pollsters weren’t the only ones to get the election outcome wrong, as demonstrated by the uncertainty and volatility in the gold market this week. Hedge funds last week betted that the metal would rally for the second-straight week, and Citigroup Inc. analysts predicted that a Trump victory would push gold to $1,400, while a Clinton victory would send prices down to $1,250. However, as the results were posted early Wednesday, gold had its heaviest-ever trading day, surpassing the volume on June 24, after Britain decided to leave the European Union. Full Story
While the list of US money managers pivoting bullish last week on the US economy and equity markets reads like a who's who list of hedge fund titans, the broader reflationary trend that had displayed cracks in its foundation last month (see Here), once again began to quake and break down. Full Story
So its no coincidence gold has been stopped by the Commercials at $1300 again, which as pointed out previously, is key resistance. Once gold makes it over $1300 on a lasting basis, which would be signaled with two consecutive closes over $1380, it would likely run back up to $2000 very quickly, and beyond. The monthly plot from the Chart Room pictured above looks much more constructive than the weekly silver chart, so let’s hope gold doesn’t close back below the ‘swing line’ (21-month EMA) anytime soon, which would turn the energy flow back down. Full Story
By: John Mauldin and Jeffrey Tucker - 14 November, 2016
I think many of my readers are in the same boat I’m in: we are still sorting out the implications of last Tuesday’s election. My style is generally not to shoot from the hip but to think about things before I start to write. When I have adopted the “ready–fire–aim” style of writing, I have usually found myself going back and asking, “What was I thinking?” And the answer is that I wasn’t doing enough thinking. Full Story
The big news this week is that Donald Trump was elected to be the next president of the United States. Whether due to his comments about restructuring the government debt, tariffs on imported goods, or other economic concerns, many expected news of his election to push up the price of gold. Full Story
Jeffrey Nichols is recognized as one of the world's top experts in the economics and finance of precious metals. He has been a keynote speaker at dozens of investment and industry conferences, corporate meetings, and private company events around the world. Stephen Leeb, Ph.D. President, Chairman of Investment Committee • 25+ years of investment experience with a focus on growth stocks • Editor of The Complete Investor Full Story
Let’s suppose that Trump at least partially goes ahead with his grandiose plans – what does it mean? Well, it means helicopter money, because there’s no other way to pay for it. This could indeed drive the stockmarket higher, which is what last week’s breakout may signify. However, it will also mean inflation, so gold and silver should bottom soon and turn higher. While copper may continue in a bullmarket action in it on Friday indicates temporary burnout, so it should now react. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 13 November, 2016
Global gold investment demand has increased due to rising uncertainty in the financial markets and the unpredictability associated with a new Trump Presidency. Not only has gold investment demand surged this year, sales of the U.S. Mint Gold Eagles spiked the day after the U.S. President election. Interestingly, the current price action in gold and silver seems to suggest that market has no need for top two precious metals. While the gold price spiked to almost $1,340 late Tuesday night when Trump began to lead in the Presidential election, it has continued lower to $1,226 on early Friday trading. Full Story
There’s just one problem. Those programs were enacted when debt levels as a percentage of GDP were miniscule compared to today. Since borrowing, like any other activity, tends to become less effective with overuse, ladling another few trillion on top of the hundred or so trillion already owed won’t accomplish much. In economists’ terms, the “marginal productivity of debt” has plunged as total debt has soared, which implies that we can now borrow infinite dollars and get virtually zero new wealth. Full Story
Bonds – this past week saw one of the largest weekly selloffs in decades. After finally reaching negative rates in much of the world, has the 36 year bond bubble finally popped? Full Story
What a week! Markets were wild, moving huge, beginning Sunday evening in the futures market and not really calming down until Friday. I remain in cash waiting for setups, which are starting to form now. I knew the election would create massive volatility but I had no idea which way it would go, it turned out to have gone both ways. Full Story
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