Now that the sound of cork-popping and other signs of celebrating the New Year, and the new record highs in the price of gold, are dying down, some questions arise the answering of which brooks no delay. How high is high? Is it the nominal price or the so-called ‘real’ price of gold that gives us a valid reading of whence we came, where we are, and whither we go? Full Story
By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 18 January, 2008
-Looking like bulls in a bullfight…why a decline in homebuilding is good news… -The rancid smell of curdled loans…the only business to expand before a recession… -"Tall Paul" condemns the bubble-makers…a very good question - we wish we had a good answer…and more! Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence LLC - 18 January, 2008
Gold is definitely not the only commodity enjoying a very happy new year. The strong global investment demand for precious metals has spilled over into silver as well. Just last week, silver soared above $16 for the first time since January 1981! Silver investors are naturally very excited about this dazzling 27-year high. Full Story
By: Peter Zihlmann, Zihlmann Investment Management AG - 18 January, 2008
The price of silver is rising. If you have not noticed it yet, above chart tells the story. The up-trend is solidly established with some spectacular leaps within a few weeks of 40% or more. After an eighteen months consolidation, another bout of the same magnitude would not surprise us. Full Story
In the week of January 14 – 18, 2008 we saw the price of both Gold and Crude Oil taken down significantly. Once again it appears that The Cartel* Intervenors trumped The Fundamentals and some Technical indicators. But for how much longer, if at all, can The Fed-led Cartel* defy The Frightening Fundamentals? Full Story
All investing is risky – all the way down to zero. And if government steps in to bail out a business, it should've gone to the wall in the first place... Full Story
The reason to call this a recession (even though it does not even meet Arthur Burns’ 2 quarter criterion) is to tell the American people that the contraction of money and credit is bad for them. This is an out and out falsehood, and in the broadest sense it is a lie. Full Story
The sub prime mortgage melt down and future ramifications are very real and the major financial institutions associated with all the second and third level repackaging of this toxic paper are in big trouble. But the “crisis” is a hoax. Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital, Inc. - 18 January, 2008
For members of Congress desperate to avoid recession, the takeaway message that Fed Chairman Bernanke delivered in his testimony this week was that a successful stimulus package needs to be rapid and targeted. By this he meant that money would need to be delivered quickly to those individuals who would be most likely to spend, and withdrawn when and if the need for stimulus ebbs. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The MOGAMBO GURU - 18 January, 2008
Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke has no such qualms about shame, and said he is ready to take "substantive additional action", which the media and markets took as saying, 'Rates are going down, dudes!' Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 18 January, 2008
Just why a bear market would rear its ugly head at this time must be a mystery to the board members of the Federal Reserve. After all, it could not have been more than a week ago that the Fed chairman himself said there was no recession in the central bank’s forecast, at least not yet. Full Story
The Fed is well behind the curve and is doing little to get ahead of it. I have no confidence at this time the Chairman Bernanke understands how to use the media. Therefore the psychology behind the market is one of doom and gloom. Fed action with a rate cut prior to the next FOMC Meeting would have helped things, but frankly would not have solved them. Full Story
The conclusion from all of this should be obvious - apart from some isolated pockets of strength you should be out of the broad stockmarket by now, and any remaining holdings should be sold, especially on any short-term rallies, which can also be shorted. A high weighting of funds should be deployed in commodities generally and especially in the Precious Metals sector. Things are likely to get really rough for the US economy in 2008, which promises to be the worst year for the US since The Great Depression. Full Story
By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 17 January, 2008
-Stuck between a rock and, well, another rock…leading presidential candidates take a page from Bill Clinton's book… -Mitt Romney and the outrageously stupid lie…the 79th slot of the periodic table has its day… -Shipping industry going under…advice from a lawyer on the selling of an Argentine's car…and more! Full Story
While platinum may be overbought in the short term, the fundamentals of platinum for 2008 point towards another deficit year in the platinum market and a continuing rise in prices seems more than likely. Platinum started 2008 at $1530 per ounce and should platinum return 30% in 2008 then it will reach the psychological level of $2,000 per ounce. Full Story
By: Bill Murphy, Le Metropole Cafe, Inc. - 17 January, 2008
The gold takedown spooked other spec longs, a number of which pitched their positions to protect profits. This sort of action tends to feed on itself in the short term and influences the cash market too as buyers step back, waiting to see what sort of carnage develops. Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 17 January, 2008
We now are entering the era of the duct tape economy. From here on out it will be one problem after another. Finally a few years from now probably due to incessant hyperinflation – the game will be over and the system will collapse. Even if it doesn’t collapse it will drone on for years mired in stagflation. Never ending economic misery. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The MOGAMBO GURU - 17 January, 2008
And what the chart shows, but nobody is saying, is that it wasn't until 1960 that the Dow high, again rose high enough to equal the very peak in 1929. 'Investing for the long term'! Hahaha! Full Story
By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 16 January, 2008
-No escape from this financial calamity…stocks take a tumble…home sales take a dive… -Again, relying on the kindness of strangers…our Trade of the Decade keeps looking better and better… -The ECB is being cagey…what will Trichet do in the face of such America-like problems?…and more! Full Story
Double-digit interest rates – which is what it took to restore the value of money, stem inflation in the cost of living, and kill the bull market in gold at the start of the '80s – now look as remote as flared burgundy trousers and the first series of Dallas. Full Story
By: Gary Dorsch, Editor, Global Money Trends - 16 January, 2008
In an age where governments of every political stripe distort data to promote their own self interests, it’s hardly surprising that they present inflation data in a manner that is best suited to their particular needs. By the same token, it’s entirely natural for official inflation data to be wildly at odds with the reality that is faced by consumers and businesses, and to be regarded with utter disbelief. Full Story
The Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) movement has begun to expand in a powerful manner, and will not go away. In fact, it will expand on a grand basis since foreign nations have had their fill of USTreasury Bonds, and see grand risks ahead for any US$-based investments. The SWF fund movement is intended to pursue the two prime commodities, GOLD & CRUDE OIL, the premier financial anchor and commercial fuel in the increasingly upside down world. Full Story
By: Peter Zihlmann, Zihlmann Investment Management AG - 16 January, 2008
At present, the gold price has again moved away from the EMA 50 and stands in fact at plus 25%. If however we take the price surge of 2006/7 as a guide, we should refrain from selling too early as we may reach a level well over $ 1,000 by the end of this move. Full Story
Risk is back and no matter how often the playground supervisor tries to reassure us, we know the playground is no longer safe. Even the big kids are getting hurt. The fat kid’s back and so is the whiff of deflation. Full Story
By: David N. Vaughn, Gold Letter, Inc. - 16 January, 2008
When will the gold stocks begin moving to catch up with the gold price? I believe in 2008 we will see the equilibrium established again. All the fundamentals are still there. And very strong fundamentals to boot. Full Story
Gold's explosive start of year move has been enjoyed by all. Has it been over enjoyed? Fundamentals of the U.S. dollar did not suddenly get worse on the first day of the year. Current euphoria in the Gold market may have been over done. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The MOGAMBO GURU - 16 January, 2008
So, if inflation in prices is not caused by a depreciating dollar or monetary policy, then Mr. Central Bank Governor Sultan Bin Nasser al-Suwaidi better find out what in the hell is causing it, and pronto! Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 16 January, 2008
For investors, the deflationary collapse that lies ahead will not be plunderable, like some kind of dot-com boom in reverse. Forget about leveraging the downside here, because surviving it will be challenging enough. Full Story
By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 15 January, 2008
-The headline we've been waiting for…reluctance to spend what is difficult to replace… -People do not like paying their debts to the devil…the immorality of inflation… -I.O.U.S.A. takes Sundance by storm this week…forging rivers on vacation…and more! Full Story
In simple and absolute terms, the gold and silver markets are in the most dangerous position since I’ve followed them, or more than 35 years. I have definitely not turned bearish on silver, nor am I expecting lower prices in the long term. Although I expect near term volatility to increase, I’m more bullish on silver than before, if that’s possible. Then, what’s the danger? Full Story
This is not the time to get bogged down with minor details, and thus risk losing sight of the big picture, which is that gold is now in a powerful uptrend that has a lot further to run. For this reason we will only look at long-term 8-year charts in this update. Full Story
Silver is at last breaking out of its massive 20-month consolidation pattern. It tried to do this last November, but the attempt was premature and it slumped back into pattern. Now it is expected to succeed and the advance should accelerate noticeably going forward. Full Story
By: Steven Saville, Speculative Investor - 15 January, 2008
A pullback should commence within the next few days, but the fact that the HUI has closed above its November-2007 peak suggests that significant additional gains will be achieved over the next couple of months. Full Story
With recession looming or already here, the time has arrived for finding scapegoats. Expect a long list of these. Here is the target of the day: tightfisted consumers. A decline in personal consumption, writes the New York Times, "would be the first since 1991, and it would almost certainly push the entire economy into a recession in the middle of an election year." Full Story
Not even a month into 2008 and Gold is stealing all headlines again. The ancient metal of kings has hit an all time nominal high while many other markets have struggled since August. Can gold go higher from here? Is this a top? Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The MOGAMBO GURU - 15 January, 2008
And when that government check hits my mailbox, brother, I'll show you exactly how giving people free money stimulates spending! Whee! Insanity in economics is fun! And it will be ironically profitable if you use the money to buy gold! Whee! Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 15 January, 2008
Now, there’s no denying that $1,000 gold has become something of a no-brainer among us professional bloviators. But does that mean we should back away from it in anticipation of a punitive correction? We think not, and here’s why. Full Story
By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 14 January, 2008
-False hopes - but gold's rise is real…Mr. Market seems to have punched a hole in the stock market's boat… -When you come to the end of a credit expansion, troubles arise…a trillion here, a trillion there… -Say whatever you have to say to win - that's modern democracy in action…last chance to take advantage of a very special offer…and more! Full Story
Central banks are now showering the economy with accelerating quantities of fiat digits like never before, which is having the effect of extending the current boom cycle even longer in spite of the natural tendency for system failure. Full Story
Copper has a history of providing leading signals for the price of gold. Most notably, the copper price double-bottomed between 1999-2001 and refused to make a lower low during a time when the price of gold made a 20-year low. This leading signal in copper preceded the major turnaround in the yellow metal price in 2002 and beyond. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster – Global Watch - 14 January, 2008
When you went on holiday the gold price looked as though it might attempt to test $775, when it was just above $800. Then a quick dip in the Caribbean, or a trip to the European sun and lo and behold we are looking at breaking $900? All this in less than two weeks! Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 14 January, 2008
All that glitters is silver and gold. The precious metals and their related stocks have out-shined all market sectors, and have now separated themselves from the other sectors just as they did in the last precious metals boom cycle that culminated in the blow-off top that blew itself out in January of 1980 as double digit inflation and interest rates sent the US economy into the tank during the Carter Administration. Full Story
With gold knocking on $900 per ounce, most gold stock indices are making large advances despite an overly bearish sentiment on the broad equity markets. Large inflows into gold and silver ETFs are highlighting the point that there is major demand for stagflation insurance, namely gold and silver. Full Story
Well, gold has now made it to a new all time intra-day high. Again, so what? Momentum and volume activity are still lagging. Go with the flow but keep your protective options at the ready. Full Story
Gold had a good week, up $32.00 to a new high of $897.70 (+3.70%). In the last three months gold has gained approximately 20%. The second phase of the gold bull is underway. Full Story
1st Hour: Headline news & market forecast. Spotlight Picks with big dividends. The International Forecaster and Chris Waltzek answer listener questions. 2nd Hour: Puru Saxena Full Story
Pure and simple, many people in and outside of the precious metals area have come to the conclusion that “SILVER IS TOO BULKY.” Before going off on a rant about this general (mis)perception, it becomes a challenge for this writer to lead you to draw your own conclusions. Full Story
By: John Mauldin, Millenium Wave Advisors - 13 January, 2008
Today we will look at some economic reality. We tackle trade deficits, the dollar, taxes (the "Fair Tax"), how should we stimulate the economy as we slip into recession, and global trade. I think we will cover enough that I can just about guarantee to offend most of my readers at some point. But the main point I want you to take away from all this is that the simple one-line answers given at these debates might work to fool most of the voters and tell them what they want to hear, but they are not based in economic reality. While this is of more interest to US citizens, the principles apply across borders. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 13 January, 2008
Look out below! The Fed chairman gave it his best shot on Thursday, lying through his teeth about the true state of the economy, but apparently no one believed him. We were surprised ourselves by the stock market’s dour reaction, since we’d fully expected Wall Street’s magicians of manipulation to keep Thursday’s short-squeeze going for at least another day or two. Full Story
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