Addiction to monetary stimulus and “money printing” results from central banking and fractional reserve banking practices. Larger profits for the banking cartel is a compelling incentive. Such “Keynesian stimulus” increases wealth disparity, consumer price inflation and mal-investments. Power and wealth concentrate in the financial industry, government and the banking cartel. Full Story
During the first three quarters of 2016 we were open to the possibility that a new cyclical gold bull market got underway in December of 2015, but over the past 18 months we have been consistent in our opinion that the December-2015 upward reversal in the US$ gold price did NOT mark the start of a bull market. Since late-2016 there have been some interesting rallies in the gold price, but at no time has there been a good reason to believe that we were dealing with a bull market. That’s still the case. The question is: what will it take to set a new cyclical gold bull market in motion? Full Story
“These people” the emailer is talking about are obviously the gold “community” at large and the “gold analyst” (ha ha ha, gold analyst; hi, I am a gold analyst; I analyze a piece of rock that does nothing whatsoever) community in particular. First of all, anyone who belongs to a community is already implicitly sworn in as biased. Secondly, a gold analyst is just another term for gold-obsessed idealist who really wants you to be obsessed with it too. Full Story
Emerging market currencies are collapsing pretty much everywhere these days. But it’s safe to assume that most people don’t understand exactly what’s causing this outbreak, why it’s happening now, or what “external dollar debt” has to do with it. So here’s a quick primer followed by the obligatory apocalyptic prediction... Full Story
Following sharp losses last week, the Turkish lira plunged about 10% on Monday, as one can see in the chart below. The move came after President Erdogan reiterated his opposition to raising interest rates and said the lira’s recent free-fall was the result of a foreign plot. So, contrary to the market’s hopes for an interest rate hike, Turkey’s central bank announced a cut in reserve requirements ratios for banks. Full Story
Whenever you encounter a "sticking point" in some activity – any activity in which you are engaged – it always helps if you "return to the basics." Sure you may "know" what they are, but do you really follow them? Ask an expert in most any field of endeavor, and he/she will tell you the same thing. Full Story
I have highlighted three significant peaks of the USD/ZAR chart. These were formed roughly seven years apart. This ratio tends to spike significantly before major market events or turnarounds. After each of the first two significant peaks (2001 and 2008), a multi-year gold rally followed. Currently, gold prices hare higher than the level it was at the last USD/ZAR peak, but it has not really taken of yet. The probability that it will accelerate higher over the coming months and years are really high. Full Story
Unfortunately, politics has become hyper-partisan. If Nevada Democrats perceive this as a Republican bill, they will vote it down. Since they are in the majority, they will kill the bill. That must not happen! The decay in our monetary system is at an advanced stage. No one can predict how much time remains, but I can say one thing with absolute certainty. We need to begin developing an alternative. We need to begin remonetizing gold, and that means gold bonds. Full Story
In our regular gold trading alerts, we focus on the short- and medium-term outlook and we rarely discuss the very long-term issues or price targets. The reason is simple – the long-term issues and price targets don’t change often, so usually there’s little new to say about them. Consequently, it’s been a long time since we last discussed our view on gold’s explosive upside potential. Full Story
It has been quite some time since we last collaborated on an article, opting instead to chase other pursuits and let some of the hysteria going on in the world fade into some type of steady state. It hasn’t happened, but there are pressing matters that need attention regardless. The circus going on all around us makes for great theater and distraction – and that is its intent. Full Story
I am back in the literary engine room after a two-week boating excursion into northern Georgian Bay complete with forest fires, travel restrictions and mechanical malfunctions—all part and parcel of navigating the ever-steepening learning curve of boating. As an individual trained in finance, nothing is more terrifying than turning on your marine generator only to see blue smoke pour out of the exhaust pipe. Full Story
In 2008, gold was taken from $1020 to $700 and silver was pounded from $21 to $7 during the period of time that Bear Stearns, Lehman and the U.S. financial system was collapsing. The precious metals were behaving inversely to what would have been expected as the global financial system melted down. Massive Central Bank intervention was at play. Full Story
Gold can’t seem to catch a break. The yellow metal normally acts as a safe haven in times of political and economic strife, but in the face of Turkey’s lira meltdown, investors have taken cover instead in the U.S. dollar. On Monday, the stronger greenback pushed gold to end below $1,200 an ounce for the first time since January 2017. Full Story
As part of Merk's in-house research we regularly evaluate a consistent set of charts covering the economy, equities, fixed income, commodities and currencies. The aim is to keep our eyes open and to look through the noise of the headlines, avoiding the distractions of sensationalized click-bait. In sharing this content, we offer a cross-check to your own thinking and aim to add value to your own process. Full Story
In the first several articles in this series, I am simply going to provide you an overview of Elliott Wave analysis and why it can assist you in rising above the herd, which often seem to be chasing their tails. After the introductory articles, I will begin discussing Elliott Wave analysis in more detail, and then explain how we use Fibonacci Pinball – a method we developed – to place a more objective structure around standard Elliott Wave analysis. I will then explain how we use standard technical analysis to assist us in coming up with a higher probability wave count. Full Story
The precious metals sector is on a long-term buy signal. Short-term is on mixed signals. The cycle is down. From a contrarian point of view, the current extreme bearish sentiment is an excellent buying opportunity for long-term investors. We are holding gold-related ETFs for long-term gain. Full Story
It’s very important for investors to act prudently and professionally with their investment capital in the gold market. As a particularly interesting example, most North American gold stocks had a big sell-off yesterday, while my entire “Thunder Down Under” portfolio of Australian gold stocks was up overnight! Full Story
The current bottoming pattern looks like triangle that broke down. However, it actually is very bullish although it still needs to find a bottom. The bearish look of the triangle is creating that perfect panic that is needed before price can go higher. The wise is buying right now while the fearful are selling. It only is important that price does not go lower than the low of 2015. Full Story
In recent days Gold has been more oversold than the gold stocks. Entering this week, the gold stocks were fresh off a major technical breakdown. An upside or downside break can lead to a market stretching beyond what typically qualifies as overbought or oversold. After Monday’s selloff, the gold stocks are hitting oversold levels but have more to go before reaching true oversold extremes. Full Story
As I have said many times, we now live in an Era of Creditism versus traditional Capitalism where the Credit Cycle now controls the industrial economy and to an ever increasing degree, the business cycle. The Global Credit Cycle controls national economic cycles as money and credit is borderless and moves in milliseconds. Full Story
While all three of the points listed above are noteworthy, perhaps the single most significant point is buried in the details. For the first time since at least 1998, the Large Specs in COMEX gold hold a larger amount of short contracts than the Commercials. The latest Large Spec GROSS short position is 195,604 contracts versus a Commercial GROSS short position of 179,812. This is extraordinary and quite possibly historic as a first ever such occurrence. Full Story
For the last several months or so I’ve been showing you that many of the important currencies that make up the US dollar have been breaking down from large 2 1/2 year trading ranges. If you want to know what the US dollar is going to do the first thing you need to do is look at the important currencies that make up the US dollar as the US dollar is just a derivative of those currencies. Most of the time a stock, or in this case the currencies that make up the US dollar are trading within a reversal pattern, consolidation pattern, or are in an impulse move. It’s that impulse move that you want to be aware of and the earlier the better. Full Story
On Friday, the BLS released its latest report on inflation. It showed that the Consumer Price Index increased 0.2 percent in July, following a 0.1 percent uptick in June. The core index, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2 percent for the third month in a row. Over the last 12 months, the CPI rose 2.9 percent, the same as in the previous month. But the core CPI accelerated and jumped 2.4 percent. Full Story
On December 23, 2005, Canadian Securities Administrators (CSA) added a new wrinkle to the NI-43101 regulation of resource estimations with official creation of the so-called “preliminary economic assessment” (PEA). This is a document that can be tabled after a series of resource estimates and purports to address the economics of a mineral occurrence prior to technical pre-feasibility and feasibility studies. Full Story
In the aftermath of the 2008 Financial Crisis, the private Federal Reserve bank cartel was front and center as a target for public outrage. Former U.S. Congressman Ron Paul’s "End the Fed" message suddenly resonated. Americans hated Fed officials bailing out the banksters – richly rewarding them for crooked and irresponsible behavior which helped create the crisis. Full Story
Spot gold was the best performing precious metal for the week. Gold is putting up a fight against the U.S. dollar, according to Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. The yellow metal is showing resistance near $1,200 an ounce, which suggests that prices are, for now, finding a floor, reports Bloomberg. Midweek gold rose for a second day from the lowest in more than 16 months. Full Story
Pater Familias is Latin for “father of the family or eldest male in a family or owner of the family estate”. This past week having just turned 60 I am reminded of my role as head of my little family. My own father, partner and friend died a little over 6 years ago but somehow turning 60 has reminded me of the responsibility I have for my family as well as my extended family. Full Story
While everyone has been so concerned about the evil trade wars that were supposedly going to topple the US markets, we have been rallying in the face of this latest evil. In doing so, the market provided us with yet another reason it was supposed to have tanked, but, instead, continued to rally. We can add this to Brexit, Grexit, terrorist attacks, rising interest rates, North Korea, Trump, cessation of quantitative easing, and the myriad of other reasons the market was supposed to crash and burn over the last 3 years as we have rallied strongly. Full Story
For the first time this year, about two weeks ago the sentiment backdrop became decisively supportive of the gold price and remains so. At the same time, the fundamental backdrop is unequivocally bearish for gold. What will be the net effect of these counteracting forces? Full Story
This week, Turkey provides an opportunity to discuss this in a way most people can relate to. Their currency, the lira, has been falling for years, but the rate of its plunge accelerated dramatically this week. It closed last week at 19.6 cents, but on Friday it was 15.5. This may not seem like a lot, but those 3.1 pennies are about 21 percent. In a week! Full Story
Gold is likely to plunge below $1,000 this year and we’ve been writing about it for months. This article provides a list of critical long-term factors that one should be aware of if they want to invest in or trade gold, silver, and/or mining stocks. We include links to our previous premium analyses and we just made these analyses available to everyone. Full Story
Wolf Richter, founder of WolfStreet.com holds silver in his investment portfolio and advises investors to buy and hold PMs in anticipation of the next uptrend. The duo make cautionary comments on the harrowing California wildfires; the 3 county raging inferno is now the largest on record, a "National Disaster." Bill Murphy of GATA.org notes precious metals investors will ultimately be rewarded for their patience amid the typically slow "Summer Doldrums." Gold prices tends to perk up as the holidays approach, including Christmas, Hanukkah, Diwali in India and China's New Year festivities. Full Story
The gold price traded flat until shortly after 12:30 p.m. China Standard Time on their Friday afternoon. It took a bit of a header at that point, helped along by a sudden 'rally' in the dollar index. The sell-off ended at the 2:15 p.m. CST afternoon gold fix in Shanghai -- and it began to chop quietly higher from there until another dollar index 'rally' began shortly after the afternoon gold fix in London. It was sold lower into the COMEX close from there -- and didn't do much after that. Full Story
No need to mince words anymore. If the futures market still influences gold’s price, then that price is going to spike. And silver is better than gold. Since January, gold futures speculators have been trending from extremely bullish to scared short. And in the week ending last Tuesday (the most recent data available) they appeared to capitulate, adding a massive number of short positions while marginally cutting their longs. They’re now about as close to neutral as they’ve ever been. Based on the history of the past decade this is hugely bullish, since speculators tend to be wrong when they’re fully convinced they’re right. Full Story
I’m back from Camp Kotok. As always, it was both rejuvenating and enlightening. The Maine woods, lakes, and general environment encourage more candor than I see most places. This, combined with David Kotok’s talent for assembling a diverse group and the always-marvelous Maine hospitality, made it another great success. It helps that David aggressively enforces Chatham House Rules and the Jackson Hole Rule. So you really don’t have to worry what you say. Full Story
The Morgan Report is all about YOU and how you can build and preserve Wealth for generations to come. We know it can sometimes seem a daunting task to protect your assets and preserve or grow your wealth. Over 15 years ago, a small group of us started The Morgan Report and formed an exclusive membership organization to promote personal freedom, an honest money system, free market wealth accumulation and asset protection. Full Story
The massive debt accumulated by the U.S. Shale Industry is now decimating company profits. As company debts and interest rates rise, these shale producers interest expense also continues to increase. Debt service is not only cutting into company profits, but it also takes a great deal of oil and gas production to cover this expense. Full Story
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