By: Short Fuse & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 17 August, 2007
-Continuing to reckon while on vacation...confused market acts complacent... -Might be time to take out a ‘wealth insurance’ policy...the long-awaited consumer cutback signal... -Phone’s for you, Mr. Poole...more reasons to head to Argentina...and more! Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital, Inc. - 17 August, 2007
The current weakness in domestic markets has recently been magnified overseas as panic spread to foreign investors with exposure to U.S. asset backed debt. Some commentators point to this reaction in an attempt to disprove the belief that foreign assets offer protection from falling U.S. stocks. I believe such conclusions are premature. Global stock markets will soon decouple from ours, and strong returns overseas will occur even as U.S. stocks slump. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 17 August, 2007
In the face of gyrating currency markets it is difficult to get a real “price” on anything at the moment. We have often asked the question here, what is the price of gold? If it is $670 then we ask, what is the price of the $. Should the $ be valued in gold, the other way round to now? Well the same question should now be asked of oil. Why? Because the value of the $ is now subject to question internationally. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence LLC - 17 August, 2007
Just one month after the US stock markets achieved new all-time highs, today’s fear-stricken equity landscape looks radically different. Investors and speculators alike are frantically dumping everything with reckless abandon, regardless of fundamental merit. The resulting carnage is impressive to behold. Full Story
To summarize, an investor should carefully consider his or her investment objectives, the amount of money he or she plans to invest, their need for liquidity, and the current geopolitical, macroeconomic and systemic risk when making an investment in precious metals. And while the variety of bullion products may seem somewhat overwhelming, the "best" product, in all likelihood, will differ for each investor. Full Story
The Ripple Effects of the sub-prime meltdown, forecast by Deepcaster and others, are far from over. But savvy forecasters, investors, and traders (not necessarily mutually exclusive) can profit from concomitant moves in the Gold, Silver, Equities and Crude Oil markets. Full Story
Yen carry is blowing up, global stock prices are in mini-crash mode, and the financial meltdown is threatening to spark an economic meltdown. Having gingerly danced with rhetoric and liquidity injections in recent days, the Fed started to boogie this morning. Full Story
By: Jason Hommel, Silver Stock Report - 17 August, 2007
I do not sell out of the sector; I never have, not in 7 years. I trade, but only to trade one stock for another, never holding more than about 5% in cash. The reason is because I can never predict these short term moves. Tomorrow, things could go up 10%, across the board in the metals stocks, who knows. Full Story
August is generally a weak time of year for commodities and lower prices should be expected. In our opinion the silver and gold markets price action is acting as we would expect in these conditions. We believe the long term bull market in commodities is not over and therefore we are adding to our favorite silver investments on price weakness. Full Story
Despite the drop, gold is again proving resilient in the light of the wholesale liquidation in other markets and remains up 2.5% YTD (year to date), up 3.75% over the last 12 months and up nearly 108% in the last 5 years. It has thus easily outperformed the world's stock markets both on a monthly and yearly basis. Full Story
By: Roland Watson, The Silver Analyst - 17 August, 2007
Silver itself has fared somewhat worse than stock markets with a 16% drop. In other words, you didn’t do much worse holding silver bullion. The surprise however is gold which has performed admirably in losing only 4.4% during this Dow downdraft. It seems that although investors do not regard these events as our financial hurricane, enough are seeing a hurricane to shore up gold prices with their precautionary buying and holding. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The MOGAMBO GURU - 17 August, 2007
$300 billion is…a Big Freaking Lot (BFL) of money, being almost a third of a trillion dollars in two days…or being roughly $50 in cash for every man, woman and child on the entire freaking planet in two days! Full Story
Read John Kenneth Galbraith’s classic book on the 1929 Crash if you think there is something unusual about the stock market’s wild swings of late. In fact, such craziness was routine as shares worked their way toward the historical top of August 1929. We’re running a little ahead of schedule this time, having seen the Dow Industrial Average peak just above 14000 in mid-July. But that’s only a few weeks’ difference, and we’d be surprised if it turns out that history has not repeated itself, more or less. Full Story
By: Short Fuse & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 16 August, 2007
-A 'work break' from vacation…the higher it is, the further it has to fall… -Fear replaces greed as the market's underlying emotion…the dollar goes up and down - respectively… -Don't worry - the subprime debacle doesn't affect the 'real economy'…Countrywide takes out an emergency loan…and more! Full Story
Credit issues and the unwinding of Carry Trades are the theme of the day. These two issues are at the heart of the unwinding in metal markets. The unwinding of Carry Trades today caused the Yen to soar 300-points and the Australian Dollar to fall 400 points. The US Dollar held steady against the European currencies. The world is not ending! However, “easy to borrow money” is for the time being…a thing of the past. Full Story
Since my last blog in August 2006, I have received many feedback and comments from a lot of viewers. I want to thank you all here and they are very educational to me. It has been exactly one year since my last blog and none of my previous views have changed. With the market turmoil the last several weeks (especially today on August 16, 2007) with both gold and especially HUI, I want to provide my latest thoughts on this particular market and sector. Full Story
The market is telling officialdom, and specifically Bernanke, that like in the lead up to the 1929 stock market crash (which was 90%), the true health of the economy is not being interpreted correctly, and that official policy is not sufficiently accommodative. As alluded to during the course of the week, this misread and mishandling of the situation has a great deal to do with the stubborn resilience of Chinese stocks, commodities, and freight rates, which are all barometers of the ‘global economy'. Full Story
ONLY A "CALAMITY" would justify an interest-rate cut now, says St. Louis Federal Reserve chief William Poole. In which case, he either liquidated his personal stock investments before June...or the guy's got some real hide. Full Story
It never ceases to amaze us that central bankers blame price inflation for increasing interest rates when in fact it is their own money printing that causes price levels to rise. The simple fact is that global printing presses have run too hard for too long for anyone to be able to prevent price levels from breaking out. Full Story
Everybody wants IT…We can’t function without IT…Very few people Understand IT! What is “IT”? “IT” is MONEY! The dictionary defines money as: ‘officially issued coins and paper currency that serve as a medium of exchange and a measure of value and may be used as payment for goods and services”. Just what is it that gives a colored piece of paper with the picture of a deceased leader on it ‘value’? Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 16 August, 2007
What we have just witnessed over the past four trading days (Thursday, Friday, Monday and Tuesday), is a crystal clear demonstration of the cartel's priorities. Gold suppression is JOB ONE! All other markets take a back seat to the gold markets even though by value the amount of gold bullion and gold futures that trade in the various gold markets are almost insignificant compared to the bond, stock and currency markets. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The MOGAMBO GURU - 16 August, 2007
But although we are all in a good mood now, there is nothing funny about the current collapse of the mortgage derivatives mess that the damned banks got us into… Full Story
Now, to a growing list of signs that Papa Bear has finally arrived, we will add yesterday’s unusual expiration-week behavior. One of these days stocks are going to really fall, wiping out the recollection of whatever distress we may have felt when the Industrial Average fell a measly two or three hundred points in a single session. Is it possible the so-far orderly, 850-point decline that has occurred since last Wednesday will turn out to have been the beginning of such a decline? Full Story
By: David Galland, Managing Editor, Doug Casey’s International Speculator - 15 August, 2007
At the risk of sounding like I’m on happy pills, I’m going to use four charts to demonstrate a simple path you can use to make a lot of money with only modest effort and capital. How much money? Would it seem out of the question that, with only four trades, one about every ten years, you could turn $35 into $100,000? Well, you could have… Full Story
By: Short Fuse & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 15 August, 2007
-Asking questions if for the bears…no more low-hanging fruit for private equity funds… -Stock quotes in the archaic, pre-digital era…in case you missed it - hell froze over last week… -How dumb are you to be holding dollars right now?…tropical storms in the markets…and more! Full Story
Just like the Bankers Panic of 1907, the Great Crash of 1929...Black Monday in 1987...and the "mini-crash" triggered ten years later by the Asian Crisis...any trader bored of tanning his hide on the Cote d'Azur can now come home to find October in full swing. And if he's seeking a snow-white pallor for autumn, he can turn white as a sheet within minutes in Mayfair, watching his funds under management shrink with each breath. Full Story
In this new series of articles I wish to provide a definitive answer to Tom Szabo’s question: yes, we are approaching ’Peak Gold’ if we have not already passed it. The last twenty-five years in the history of gold mining has been a gross aberration during which gold was mined as if it were a base metal, namely, at the top grade of ore reserves (that is, most recklessly). Full Story
Newmont has eliminated its entire 1.85 million ounce hedgebook (Reuters, July 5) and, in doing so, it has catapulted itself into the position of the world’s largest unhedged gold producer. As those who have followed the gold-hedge saga will know, this is a most serious challenge to Barrick since it has wrested for itself the title of the world’ largest gold producer, even though at the expense of swallowing the poison pill of hedge-books worse than its own, for no better reason than propaganda. Full Story
Gamblers shorting the dollar and bonds beware. Rumors about the imminent demise of the dollar and the bond market are grossly exaggerated. Bear in mind not only that the casino owner rigs your odds. He is also rigging the value of chips in which payoffs are made, thereby confusing the issue further. Full Story
By: The World Gold Council and GFMS Ltd. - 15 August, 2007
Dollar demand for gold in the jewellery, retail investment and industrial sectors all reached new heights in the second quarter of 2007. Global demand for gold jewellery showed the strongest surge, reaching a record $14.5 billion, 37% higher than Q2 2006, with particular strength across the key gold markets of Greater China, India, the Middle East and Turkey. Full Story
This is an investing call, not a trading call. Gold stocks aren't necessarily about to turn on a dime. They could be yet lower a week from now, or even a month from now. Still, we feel gold stocks could put in a triple or quadruple from current levels -- over the course of months to years -- and it isn't clear when the move will begin in earnest. Given that it could be sooner rather than later, we think it's time to buy. Full Story
Complete and total intellectual bankruptcy of Federal Reserve was confirmed this past week. Creation and collapse of two financial bubbles in eight years would seem to suggest monetary philosophy of Federal Reserve is fatally flawed. Core rate of inflation as a tool for managing monetary policy should be declared dead, and buried in history books of foolish thinking. The entire time the Federal Reserve was driving interest rates to 1% we were told all was well because core inflation was tame. Full Story
By: The Staff of www.usemlab.com - 15 August, 2007
We are convinced that if the unfortunate proposal to sell our reserves becomes a reality, then it must be conducted in the same way as all the previous privatizations of the last few years, and offered to the Italian People. Full Story
More signs that we’ve entered a bear market: The downdrafts are growing increasingly predictable, and the swoons no longer give way to quick, complete recoveries. By “predictable,” we don’t mean to imply that one can now short stocks on the close and sleep like a baby, for one cannot. Indeed, since no one knows what will occur on the opening bell, to act as though you do is to subject yourself to open-ended risk. However, we have observed recently that once stocks get a mind to move lower, they move with a relatively high degree of fidelity to our Hidden Pivot targets. Full Story
By: Short Fuse & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 14 August, 2007
-"Bank Owned" - the polite way of saying you're homeless…gluttons for debt based punishment… -Roasting on a burning platform…The new capitalist gods must love the poor… -Faith resting on miracle money…is America having an Atlas Shrugged moment?…and more! Full Story
It’s no secret we have been experiencing highly unusual financial market developments. I can’t recall a time when the financial news flow has been this intense, or price movement so hectic. Conflicting opinions are the order of the day. Housing and mortgage obligation woes, hedge fund blow-ups, credit crunches and central bank rescues, inflation or deflation, boom or bust, correction or crash. Full Story
If you have boarded an airplane recently, you know something about how the state lives in a strange, alternative universe in which good sense, normal courtesies, and sound judgment play no role. No aspect of life is perfect, but the sectors the state manages are wacky and topsy-turvy. Full Story
With the financial markets doing their best impression of a tinderbox waiting for a spark, it is not easy to use the word ‘oversold’ without cracking a smile. After all, if the S&P 500 - which closed less than 1-point below its 200 DMA yesterday - was really ‘oversold’ it would not normally be trading only 6.4% off of its recent highs (market corrections are generally -10% and bear markets are -20%). Full Story
What does a rapidly deteriorating U.S. housing sector have to do with the global economy? Answer: everything. The question was asked in the Rick’s Picks chat room yesterday, so perhaps it’s a good time to consider the implications. Let’s begin by acknowledging that the housing market is suffering not from a touch of flu, nor from a more serious malady that can be treated with powerful drugs, but from pancreatic cancer. And it doesn’t take a specialist to see that ominous shadows on the X-ray are beginning to overwhelm the host. Full Story
By: Steven Saville, Speculative Investor - 14 August, 2007
Our main concern at this time is with the next few months, because although the prices of most base metals held up fairly well during the stock market's initial decline the backdrop has recently become markedly less favourable for growth-oriented investments. To put it another way, the things that have recently made us more bullish on gold with respect to the short- and intermediate-terms have increased the downside risk in the base metals. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The MOGAMBO GURU - 14 August, 2007
…the Fed is doomed to fail, due not by my hating them so much and my putting a voodoo curse on them all, but on its total reliance on the bell curve and probability theory… Full Story
By: Short Fuse & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 13 August, 2007
-Injecting the markets with a liquid based facelift...making sure the bubble gets enough air... -Major rips starting to appear all over...presidential hopefuls ‘keep it real’... -Brokers aren’t the only ones to blame...the Fed attempts to ease the market’s DTs...and more! Full Story
The one thing needful at the top of each bubble, the rabble also take on the role of greatest sucker, too. Piling in as the smart money runs for the exits, the common-or-garden investor pays top price. He or she is then left holding the "asset" as its price collapses...and by that time, the Lear Jets have long since cleared the tarmac...taking the money with them. Full Story
By: David N. Vaughn, Gold Letter, Inc. - 13 August, 2007
I have heard the battle cry and mantra repeated over and over these past years that Asia will save us and not allow us to fall. Will they? Are we placing all our faith on a culture that is totally different than our own and a culture that traditionally despises western values? Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 13 August, 2007
As the nuclear conflagration in the stock markets continued on Friday, the gold bulls decided to send a message to everyone with the wisdom to hear. Totally disgusted and fed up with the cartel and its central banks' ongoing gold suppression which had just brought gold down about $6 per ounce from 664 to 658 in the early going, the gold bulls sent gold on an $18 per ounce rocket ride from 658 to 676 over a very short span in three dramatic upward moves on Friday, before gold settled at about 670. The message is: "Hey morons, look at gold! While everything is crashing and burning everywhere, gold is on its way up. The dollar is toast, so cash and treasuries are no longer safe havens, but gold is and always will be a safe haven from all this turmoil. Get a freaking clue!" Full Story
You’ll sleep better at nights if you just focused on the intermediate or longer term trends. As an example, both moving averages of gold remained positive as did the price momentum indicator. Not yet time to panic from the perspective of these time periods. Full Story
I received quite a few e-mails last week asking if I had changed my bullish market stance based on the price action of the past few days. My response is “why”? The bottoming activity of the last several days is almost identical to that of the bottom following the late February panic sell-off and that one ended with the S&P 500 going on to retrace its losses and then making a higher high. Full Story
The US Subprime fallout in the form of the ongoing Credit Crunch and has taken the FTSE 100 Index sharply lower in a short space of time. The FTSE has fallen into the target zone of 6050 to 6000 and therefore implies that the correction is over and a strong rally is now due. Full Story
1st Hour: Headline news & market forecast. Spotlight Picks with big dividends. The International Forecaster and Chris Waltzek answer listener questions. 2nd Hour: Lindsey Williams - The Energy Non-Crisis Full Story
There are many questions, and explanations, as to why with all the turmoil in the markets gold isn’t up by more, which is a very legitimate and sensible question. I will give my personal opinion, which has been expressed by others with whom I agree, and it has been ridiculed by those who totally disagree. So, take it with a large dose of salt. Full Story
Doug Casey, chairman of Casey Research is a renowned investor, best-selling author and editor of the monthly newsletter International Speculator, now in its 27th year of providing independent-minded investors with unbiased recommendations on investments with the potential to double or better within a 12-month horizon. He has made it his life’s work to study financial crisis and how investors can protect themselves and profit, sharing his results in New York Times best-sellers such as Crisis Investing and Strategic Investing. Full Story
The commodity markets were bubbling this past month. Oil, lead, wheat and the CRB index closed at record highs and tin reached an 18 year high, driven by China’s fastest growth since 1994. Volatility then set in as the subprime woes affected the commodity markets, but China and the world’s demand for raw materials is the key to the ongoing bull market rises. Double-digit growth in China and a global economic boom of unprecedented proportions will continue to support the base metals, raw materials and precious metals for years to come. Full Story
By: John Mauldin, Millenium Wave Advisors - 12 August, 2007
This week we look at the similarities and the differences between the credit crisis that is going on today and what happened in 1998, take a quick look at the threat from China to the dollar and see what exotic fish and exotic bonds have in common. There is a lot of ground to cover, so let's jump right in. Full Story
Since being out of the markets three weeks ago, we are sitting in cash and wait for new signals and set ups. As long as the June lows hold in the ETFs, we still expect a resolution to the upside in the weeks ahead. Full Story
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor - 12 August, 2007
While this correction appears to be brutal, it is only brutal to those who jumped in too late and who sit and think that the markets trade in one direction only. Nothing goes up forever just as nothing goes down forever; though things tend to trend upwards much longer then they do downwards. As stated risk takers can start looking at all the positions and identify the strongest plays out there and slowly nibble at these positions. Full Story
By now, you may have seen Jim "Mad Money" Cramer’s tirade on Monday, August 6, against the Federal Reserve System’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) for not lowering interest rates, meaning the Federal Funds rate, meaning the publicly announced target rate. Because of YouTube, Cramer’s performance is all over the web. Full Story
From the outrageous money printing that fueled the mortgage "boom" to the Fed "rescue," the Fed step by step is setting up the economy for inflation and a crash of the dollar that won't just affect mortgage holders and hedge funds, but anyone holding deteriorating dollars in their bank accounts and wallets. Full Story
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