I’ve been collecting headlines in recent weeks. They’ve become plot points in a dot-to-dot drawing of the American economic landscape. And the picture that’s forming is one of inflation. I know you’ve heard that word a lot in recent years as the Federal Reserve has flooded the financial system with vats of money — and yet nothing resembling inflation has shown its face. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 17 July, 2015
The miserable summer for precious metals grinds on, with both gold and silver limping along near major lows. Such dismal price action has exacerbated the extreme bearishness long plaguing this sector, sparking even more capitulation. But this incredible weakness will be short-lived, as it was driven by American futures speculators’ record short selling. That will soon reverse into guaranteed, proportional buying. Full Story
I’m just back at my desk from a fact-finding mission to Shanghai and other Asian gold-trading centers where I met with gold importers, traders, jewelry manufacturers, retail outlets, and exchange officials. The key take-away: Just as weakness in Asian markets may have contributed to the latest gold-price slump, an imminent recovery of physical demand across the region could be the catalyst to higher prices later this year. Full Story
About once a week, I get a call from someone with a strong East Asian accent named Martha or Ralph or something else traditionally American. They tell me that they are calling from the “Microsoft Service Center” or “your computer service contract provider” because my computer is generating error messages, which they would like to help me fix. Full Story
The S&P 500 Index has hit numerous new highs in the past three years. Note the log-scale graph below and the broken support lines from 2000 and 2007. The current support line, depending on where it is drawn, is on the verge of breaking. Full Story
The gold miners have broken below their 2008 to 2014 support while Silver is essentially trading at a six year low. Gold looks set to make a new monthly low and weekly low but has yet to break its daily low at $1140/oz. Barring a sudden short squeeze Gold could be hours or days away from cracking in the way Silver and the miners have in recent weeks. The trend for the sector is obviously down and sentiment is following. However, the more important issue for long term bulls is where is the strong support for these markets. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 17 July, 2015
While the global financial system remained subdued in the first quarter of 2015, the U.S. Gold Market still suffered a large trade deficit. Matter-a-fact, the U.S. Gold Market deficit in 2015 may surpass its full-year shortfall in 2014 by a wide margin. Furthermore, with the heightened financial turmoil stemming from the Greek situation in Europe during the summer, I would imagine U.S. gold deficits may be even higher in the second and third quarter. Full Story
Over the past few weeks I was hoping the Fed would stay out of the market and allow a natural intermediate degree correction. Unfortunately with the Humphrey Hawkins speech this week and an FOMC meeting at the end of the month it was not to be. Instead the Fed aggressively intervened last week to prevent the market from continuing down ahead Yellens speech to Congress. This has been a familiar pattern for the last several years. Obviously it’s much easier to handle Congress if the markets are rising and everyone is happy with their 401K’s. Full Story
By: Gary Dorsch, Editor, Global Money Trends - 16 July, 2015
It’s approaching that time of year when traders and central bankers alike depart for long holidays. But this summer is shaping up to be anything but quiet for markets, with betting on a “Greek Exit” from the Euro roiling markets, and Red-chip stocks in China nose diving and requiring unprecedented “Plunge Protection Team” intervention in order to halt the onslaught. After a few weeks of turmoil, the Greek debt crisis has been kicked down the road for another few years, with another EU bailout, and after the Shanghai red-chip index, staged a +10% rebound from its panic bottom lows hit on July 7th, traders now regard these sideshows as “fixed” and under the control of their central planners. Full Story
By: Ira Epstein, Linn & Associates, LLC - 16 July, 2015
Iran has made a deal or should I say a deal proposal that will now set off a major lobby battle in Washington. Upon the announcement of the deal, the President stated any changes would invoke a Presidential veto. That means that lobbyists need to work to keep all the Republican votes in Congress against the treaty while convincing approximately 17 or so Democrats to not support the President for a veto override. These numbers are an approximate on my part but you get the point. We’re likely in for two months or so of battle in Congress over this issue. Full Story
There is a common view in financial markets that credit deflation is bad for gold prices, because gold nowadays is regarded as an asset to be sold in the scramble for cash when people are forced to pay down their debts. When asked by Congressman Ron Paul his opinion on gold four years ago, Ben Bernanke replied it was not money, just another asset, appearing to confirm this view. Doubtless Bernanke's view is shared by nearly all other central bankers in the advanced economies and by executives in the banks which have profited handsomely from monetary and credit inflation. But it is not shared by the majority of ordinary savers around the world who see it still as the ultimate store of value at a time of fiat currency inflation. Full Story
I won’t keep you in suspense. The biggest trade ever is in demographics. In particular, our rapidly increasing life expectancy. Quick story. My Coast Guard friends are retiring now. You get to retire after 20 years of service, but some of them have been taking advantage of early retirement and are leaving the service as young as age 40. Oh my God, what a deal: At age 40, you can bring home about $50K a year and then start a whole new career on the side! Full Story
There is no doubt in my mind that transportation stocks of all kinds are headed lower. As always, timing is everything—so don’t rush out and short a bunch of transportation stocks tomorrow morning. Being bearish can pay big, though. To see how I’m playing the downtrends, check out my Rational Bear newsletter risk-free for 3 months. It’s a good time to get started. I have several airlines, railroads, and trucking companies in my sight and expect to place bets against them—using puts or inverse ETFs—in the very near future. Full Story
The bottom line is that I’m seeing some of the same setups that marked the beginning of the last major impulse move down that started last year about this time. Most of all the currencies are breaking down from five month consolidation patterns while the commodities are breaking down from slightly bigger consolidation patterns along with the precious metals stocks. If this is true we’re on the cusp of an other deflationary move down of similar magnitude of the one from last year. Stay tuned as things are really starting to get interesting. Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital - 15 July, 2015
While Greece is now dominating the debt default stage, the real tragedy is playing out much closer to home, with the downward spiral of Puerto Rico. As in Greece, the Puerto Rican economy has been destroyed by its participation in an unrealistic monetary system that it does not control and the failure of domestic politicians to confront their own insolvency. But the damage done to the Puerto Rican economy by the United States has been far more debilitating than whatever damage the European Union has inflicted on Greece. In fact, the lessons we should be learning in Puerto Rico, most notably how socialistic labor and tax policies can devastate an economy, should serve as a wake up call to those advocating prescribing the same for the mainland. Full Story
So Mr. Tsipras has sold out his countrymen. He called for a referendum fully expecting a "yes" only to receive a resounding no vote. No matter though, what was already "planned" has already gone forward to kick the can down the road. As overwhelming as the referendum was and as in your face the following proposed agreement is, outright rioting, violence and even civil war has a high probability of resulting. A "convenient coup" (remember Ukraine?) could even be in the works? Full Story
I'd like to draw to your attention today to something that relates to the recent stories of "silver supply tightness". As you know, there is all sorts of anecdotal evidence being reported of retail physical silver supply tightness. I'd like to show you something extremely unusual that may be the first sign of a wholesale supply tightness. Full Story
62 years later, the aftermath is still troubling global politics. Operation Ajax was a pivotal moment in US and world history. It was the first time the CIA overthrew a government. Yet even today the US government would rather not talk about it. That’s why it remains an unknown story for many Americans. The year was 1953. The objective was to oust Mohammad Mossadegh, the elected leader of the Majlis, Iran’s parliament. Full Story
The sheer size and importance of China’s equity markets cannot be overstated. Second in size only to the New York Stock Exchange, the combined value of the Asian country’s stock markets is $14 trillion and change. Or at least it was, before they fell 30 percent, wiping away nearly $2 trillion in value. To put this in perspective, the gross domestic product (GDP) of debt-troubled Greece is around $200 billion. Full Story
Any editor, analyst or commentator who claims that a “Greek bailout deal has been reached” is lying. Greece has NOT reached a bailout deal in any way shape or form. What DID happen was Greece’s Prime Minister agreed to try and push a new austerity program through Greece’s parliament. Full Story
The cycle of hyperinflation is already upon us. It was set in motion long ago. We are in the ultimate conundrum. Politically, the US Government, Treasury, and Central Banks must satisfy - pay for - unfunded liabilities and promises. But the “money” is is simply a desperate conjuring meant to keep the doors of government open. Full Story
It has been a tense, volatile and dramatic fortnight to say the least. In fickle fashion, Greece went from ‘No!’ to ‘Yes!’ with the terms of the deal seemingly less in their favour then before. In volatile fashion, the Shanghai Composite Index crashed and “recovered” when the Chinese government tighten margin requirements for speculating and then subsequently banning major shareholders from selling shares for six months, ordering state companies to buy equities and “allowing” more than half of the listed firms to suspend trading. Full Story
There are so many that now review the Commitment of Traders’ report that look to it as gospel. Many have seen the positioning of the players in the market, and are automatically assuming that it is exceptionally bullish for metals in the near term. Furthermore, many are pointing to the negative GOFO rates, and also concluding that this is immediately bullish. Lastly, many are pointing to the fact that the US Mint has sold out of its silver, and that supply seems to be tightening in the physical market as a clear immediate bullish sign. Full Story
There are two kinds of constraints when it comes to supply in the physical markets, and anyone building a position in physical metal needs to know the difference. The first type is temporary. The other signals a sea change, the rush for physical metal going mainstream. When it happens, it’ll be “go time” in the physical markets. The time get your hands on products widely available at low premiums will be over. Full Story
Most gold analysts think that gold is in a bull market, or a bear market. They use charts and US economic reports to try to prove that the gold price is ready to move substantially higher or lower. In contrast, I’ve argued that the world gold market is in a state of transition. It’s transitioning from a Western fear trade orientation, to an Eastern love trade orientation, and thus gold is on the cusp of a “bull era”. Full Story
- RICK RULE: President & CEO of Sprott US Holdings - ERIC SPROTT: Chairman, Sprott Inc - DOUG CASEY: Chairman of Casey Research LLC - JONATHAN AWDE: President & CEO of Gold Standard Ventures Corp. (NYSE-MKT: GSV | TSX-V: GSV) - RUDI FRONK: Chairman & CEO of Seabridge Gold Inc. (NYSE: SA | TSX: SEA) Full Story
But national debt has increased exponentially since 1971 about 9% per year and about 10% per year since October 2008. Silver prices have erratically increased from $1.39 in 1971 to nearly $50 in April 2011 and have fallen to about $16.00 today. The increase in national debt parallels price increases in crude oil, postage, food, cigarettes, many consumer goods, and silver. Full Story
Europe is a fascinating place, but not as interesting as it was before the European Union came into existence. Older travellers may recall the fun of going from one European country to another, with each having its own currency and banknotes which you could scrutinize with interest as you relaxed at various cafes or restaurants. The national stereotypes could still easily be found – Frenchmen on bicycles dressed in blue and white striped shirts and black berets pedaling around selling strings of onions, and refusing to speak English on principle even when they understood it, or spending their time productively on four hour lunches or womanizing. Full Story
In the pre-Greenspan era, every rise in Prime rates was eventually corrected through recession. This makes sense as the Federal reserve would, through its Funds Rate, make borrowing by banks more expensive during economic up cycles and hence, this was passed on to the borrowing public by the spread between FFR and Prime. Full Story
For the vast majority of investors, portfolio returns are generated by the equity markets or at a minimum heavily influenced by the equity markets. We have enjoyed an almost six-year bull market run in the stock market, which has helped heal portfolios after the devastating market crash of the Great Recession. So much so that many prominent market analysts have proclaimed the beginning of a new secular bull market. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 14 July, 2015
Something quite interesting took place on Friday last week. The U.S. Mint updated its figures showing sales of its Gold Eagles surged to a level not seen for more than a year. Sales of Gold Eagles have been strong ever since the financial turmoil in Europe increased significantly with the threat of a Greek Exit. Full Story
We appear to be at the cusp of some great moment, the financial reset of this or any other age. All we await is the catalyst. But whatever that catalyst is, it won’t be a random event, as too much preparation has gone into this moment [if this is the moment] to leave anything to chance. So we wait some more. Full Story
Media analyst Mark Dice offers random people their choice of a free Hershey chocolate bar or a free 10 oz silver bar (Worth $150) in an experiment. You have to see what happened next! Full Story
“History doesn’t repeat itself but it rhymes” the saying goes. If this is in fact true, and what has happened before might imperfectly repeat itself in the future, this might be used in financial markets. But how to use it exactly? Is there a way to get clear indications as to what used to happen in the past to get a notion of what might come? Full Story
In the last article "An indication of PPT failure", many readers wrote in and either asked what the various acronyms were or admonished me for using so many without explaining them. I will try in the future to assume the reader does not know what we're talking about and at least spell out any acronym used. As for the last article; "PPT" = plunge protection team, "ROW" = rest of world. Full Story
Central banks around the world have one thing in common: they like to print money. Since 2008, the U.S. Federal Reserve has increased money supply by 67 percent, or more than $5 trillion, while the European Central Bank has also joined the game, starting its 1.1 trillion euro quantitative easing program earlier this year. For any investor, managing risk is necessary. In market conditions like this, gold provides a great hedge against not only stock market downturns but also the monetary crisis that part of the world is already experiencing. Full Story
In this Weekend Report I’m going to show you some more of the same precious metals stocks we’ve been following as more are joining the impulse move to the downside adding confirmation. Unlike the US stocks markets that have been trading sideways since the December high of last year, the precious metals stocks are in a confirmed impulse move down and that’s where the real money is made. Full Story
On Tuesday this week, the silver price made an intraday low of $14.70. It then rose to close the week at $15.56, 12 cents down from last week. The gold price is down $3. Of course this week saw more Greek drama, first the referendum rejecting the bailout deal and then it seemed like a similar bailout deal is on again. The stock market had some exciting volatility. Anyways, we’re not about the stock market here. Read on, for the only accurate picture of the supply and demand conditions in the gold and silver markets, based on the basis and cobasis. Full Story
The drama over Greece’s financial crisis continues to dominate the headlines. As this column is being written, a deal may have been reached providing Greece with yet another bailout if the Greek government adopts new “austerity” measures. The deal will allow all sides to brag about how they came together to save the Greek economy and the European Monetary Union. However, this deal is merely a Band-Aid, not a permanent fix to Greece’s problems. So another crisis is inevitable. Full Story
A front-page story in the Wall Street Journal over the weekend reads like spin control as managed by the Federal Reserve: Crises Fall Short Of Going Global‘. This orchestrated sigh of relief reminds one of the scene from Dr. Strangelove when the George C. Scott character, Gen. ‘Buck Turgidson’, offers up a prayer in the War Room when it appears that the U.S. has successfully thwarted an accidental nuclear attack on Russia. Turns out they were wrong: One bomber has actually slipped under Soviet radar, dropping a nuclear payload that would trigger The Doomsday Machine. Full Story
Economist and best-selling author Harry S. Dent Jr., returns with comments on the latest Grexit drama, noting a default is imminent. A bankruptcy will benefit the nation as forced fiscal responsibility curtails government profligacy. The only country to effectively ameliorate the debt problem is Iceland, which defaulted on foreign debt shielding constituents from predatory lending practices. Full Story
Only a few people care whether central banking persists, and they're the ones who profit from it. In some cases they profit enormously. The average Joe or Jill doesn't know about central banks and doesn't care to know. To the ones at the top of the political - economic heap, this is how they want it. Full Story
The situation is paradoxical – the charts of just about everything are positioned for a plunge – or a turnaround and limited recovery, which reflects the fact that markets are waiting on some sort of resolution of the standoff with Greece, either Greece walking away, a Grexit, or a fudge solution where Greece accepts defeat and is denied debt relief or it is obfuscated sufficiently for the markets to buy it and this may involve another “can kicking” exercise. While the charts for many commodities look scary, including gold and silver, their COTs now look bullish, which suggests that the fudge solution will be the outcome. Full Story
What started out as typically sluggish summer week quickly morphed into an extremely eventful one. In just the last five days we witnessed the intensification of the Greek debt roller coaster, the bursting of a mini-bubble in Chinese equities, a temporary shutdown of trading on the NYSE, and a brief but meaningful pullback in U.S. equities. And to think the summer is still young! Full Story
The world is limping along at ultra low interest rates. Otherwise benign movements from such extreme lows are magnified beyond comprehension. An equivalent interest rate move up from 10% has a tiny overall effect, compared with the same move up from lower rates. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 12 July, 2015
As the situation in the global financial system deteriorates, large U.S. buyers continue to stockpile silver. How do I know this? Well, according to the most recently released USGS data, U.S. silver imports surged even higher in April. How much? Full Story
One of CEO Christopher Jones' strengths includes a penchant for identifying companies with "great bones, potential and stories" then joining the management team, and transforming the diamond in the rough into a polished gem stone. Full Story
It was nice to take a couple weekends away from writing and the timing couldn’t have been better. My free, near daily blog is always running if you’d like my view on the S&P on a nightly basis on top of my view of the charts for the precious metals here on the weekends. Markets and most stocks are acting very sloppy so I am just watching and enjoying some time outside the office until things setup better. Full Story
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