The gold mining stocks continue to defy any bearish price action or perceived bearish development. Pundits first warned because of the “bearish” CoT data. The commercials are always right and a big decline is coming! Then we heard the miners were too overbought and would have to correct 20%. (I thought this once or twice!) Next we heard Gold was forming a head and shoulders top. Conventional analysis is failing in trying to predict or even explain what is happening and why. Full Story
The meaning is that these items, along with the VIX and US Treasury bonds have been plays for a risk ‘off’ market as it got the jitters over deflation. Gold miners had been, however fleetingly, rising in line with their counter-cyclical fundamentals and this is the mirror image to the reasons why I so often parrot that if you are a gold miner bull, realize that fundamentally at least, the sector is done no favors in an inflationary backdrop (price, for long stretches of time, can be something else all together). Full Story
Whatever the outcome of the Brexit referendum next week, it would appear that nothing can stop a systemic crisis developing in Europe. The two issues are unrelated, though Brexit could be blamed as a trigger. Brexit will come and go, but a European banking failure will remain with us, whatever happens on June 23rd. Full Story
Like an oak slowly growing in a stand of pines, the outgrowth of sentiment extremes become visible through major market inflection points. The irony, however, is seeing them. This is because on both sides of a market cycle there is a natural tendency for conditions otherwise thought abnormal to become commonplace. As much as we try to anchor our baseline expectations with history, inevitably, paradigm creep sets in as markets and sentiment slowly become stretched beyond more rational assumptions.
They couldn’t see the trees for the forest – until the forest caught fire. Full Story
Well, there it was Thursday, out in the open, reported by a mainstream financial news organization, Bloomberg, if without any recognition of its meaning. All the major central banks are plotting coordinated intervention in the financial markets if the United Kingdom votes next week to reclaim its independence by withdrawing from the European Union... Full Story
A month and a half after they began, the Fort McMurray wildfires in Alberta, Canada still blaze on in contained patches. Already estimated to be the most expensive disaster in Canadian history, costing the Albertan economy $70 million per day, the fires are now believed to be the work of humans, according to the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP). Full Story
Rates of 0.5% (and lower) and the word “recovery” do not belong together. The Fed is currently maintaining rates at levels usually reserved for dealing with Crises, NOT recoveries. Heck, the Fed kept rates higher than current levels during the recession following the TECH BUST. Put another way, seven years into this “recovery” the Fed views the economy as weaker than it was after the Tech Bubble burst in 2002. Full Story
By: Gordon T. Long and Richard Duncan - 16 June, 2016
China is really just running into a brick wall. If they continue to have more and more credit growth, it will only exaggerate their problem. This is essentially the nature of China’s current problem. A stock market crash, diminishing returns on credit, a plunge in imports, capital flight and currency volatility are all signs that China’s great economic boom is now coming to an end. In all probability, this is just the beginning of what is likely to be a very protracted economic slump. Full Story
One of the oddest things in this increasingly odd world is the spread of negative interest rates everywhere but here. Why, when the dollar is generally seen as the premier safe haven currency, would Japan and much of Europe have government bonds — and some corporate bonds — trading with negative yields while arguably-safer US Treasuries are positive across the entire yield curve? Full Story
You didn't come here today for bad news. There's plenty of that everywhere you look, and even where you don't look. So here's the good news. A new rush to gold has begun. To see where we're headed, let's first see where we've been. Gold and silver owners in the first ten years of this new century were in for quite a ride, watching gold soar to $1,895 and silver to $49 by 2011. Even those who jumped in midway saw their paper money values zoom. Full Story
It’s Wednesday morning – and let’s start with a little background, as we head into yet another episode of, LOL, the Fed’s “most important meeting ever.” To that end, recall that it was just seven weeks ago, on April 27th, when Yellen and Co published one of their most dovish statements yet, catalyzing a gold surge from $1,235 to $1,300 in less than a week’s time. This forced the Cartel – er, the COMEX “Commercials” – to extend their already near-record naked short positions further; which unfortunately for them, couldn’t even push gold below $1,270/oz, despite every imaginable manipulative effort. Full Story
After we caught the lows in late 2015 and early 2016 in the metals complex, the market has been acting quite bullish. But, “acting” bullish is not the same as resuming a bull market. The latter is that for which we seek confirmation in the current set up. I believe we are at a very important juncture at this point in time in the metals complex. As we discussed last weekend, the market needed to complete a 5 wave structure off the prior lows. We now seem to have that in place in the charts we follow. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 15 June, 2016
What first needs to be established about gold, before any judgment is made, is what governments are doing in the market and why. As much as he loves them, Saville's charts don't answer that question. Indeed, since he is a technical analyst who wouldn't have much to sell if the gold market was widely understood to be rigged, maybe that is why he loves his charts. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 15 June, 2016
The event that will transform the Silver Market is when BIG MONEY finally moves into the sector in a BIG WAY. Even though the precious metals prices experienced new highs in 2011, this was due to only a small fraction of investor demand. The overwhelming majority of investors were still in playing in the Stock, Bond and Real Estate Markets. Full Story
The economic and political impact of Brexit has been greatly overestimated, mainly by bureaucrats who live off and enforce edicts from Brussels, and by a congenitally dim news media that knows only what it learns from press releases. Britain never switched to the euro to begin with, so no currency changes will be required. Clearly, the impetus for Britain’s leaving the EU has come mainly from well justified fears about having to maintain completely open borders. If Wall Street is obliged to pretend that it cares about all of this, the supposed fears stirred up by the coming vote will surely fade as a concern, and soon. Full Story
A solid bid returned to the Gold sector this past week as the market saw a solid Gold Rally. And the GLD ETF alone added more than 15 tons of Gold. The precious metals Miners, which had fallen 10% from their recent Cycle highs, rallied to recover all of their losses, and to print new 2016 highs. Considering that the Dollar also moved sharply higher last week (and continued to start the week) out of its own Cycle Low, the action in the Gold market is surprisingly bullish. Full Story
So we’re going into a currency crisis, and this crisis is going to be much bigger than a financial crisis. The impact it’s going to have on the average American, on his standard of living, on his way of life is going to be much more profound. And sure, people won’t lose as much money in their stock portfolio, but if they try to sell their stocks and spend the money, the purchasing power that they lose is going to be much greater then what was lost in ’08.” Full Story
But it won’t be a “Black Swan” event. The Central Bank authorities knew DB was going to collapse when Anshu Jain was fired in June 2015, literally about 2 weeks after DB’s board had given Jain even more control over bank operations. However, the Central Banks mentioned above collectively had a year to put a “ring” around the collateral damage – i.e. the derivative counter-party default risks – that occurs from DB collapsing. Full Story
Again, none of this should come as any surprise to regular readers here at TFMR. The purpose of this post is to continue shining the light of truth upon the fraudulent, paper derivative pricing scheme. Only when this scam/sham is finally defeated will price be allowed to reach its fair value. In the meantime, all those playing in the "Comex Casino" need to be aware of the forces aligned against them and trade accordingly. Full Story
All institutional eyes are on the Brexit vote. In the short term, it’s the main driver of gold price discovery. In the big picture, a “Stay” vote is mildly positive for the gold price, because England will want special privileges with its EU membership. That means other EU member countries will soon demand special privileges, too. A “Leave” vote is even more positive for the gold price, and if it’s followed by a rate hike from Janet Yellen in July, global stock markets could begin a horrific down cycle. Full Story
The world’s monetary system is in a slow motion train wreck! In response gold is emerging from the shadows to become the world’s premier currency once again, and gold stocks are the best proxy to capture this trend. How high could the precious metals stocks go? Shockingly high is what the Barron’s Gold Mining Index (BGMI) is indicating. This index goes back to 1939 and is setting-up for the final leg in the great secular bull market in gold stocks which began in 1960. Full Story
If you’re a serious investor—and because you’re reading this, I have to assume that you are—gold is looking more and more like a crucial trade. Fewer than two weeks remain before United Kingdom voters decide on whether the country will continue to be a member of the European Union (EU) or become the first-ever to leave it. The “Brexit,” as it’s come to be known, is arguably the most consequential political event of 2016—perhaps even more so than the U.S. presidential election in November—with far-reaching implications. Full Story
This week George Soros once again came out with his very large directional "bets" for the SPX 500 and for gold and, needless to say, Mr. Soros is once again shorting the SPX and buying gold and gold miners, joining Ray Dalio, Stanley Druckenmiller and Michael Ballanger (just kidding) in a decidedly unpopular stance. Carl Icahn came out in agreement during a CNBC interview this week that left the interviewer near-speechless and groveling in the mud of anti-Wall Street rhetoric. Full Story
Are we better off with "QE", the ultra-accommodative monetary policy pursued by major central banks around the world? Is it "mission accomplished" or are we facing a "ticking time bomb"? Are extreme characterizations even warranted to describe the unconventional monetary policy of recent years, and what are implications for investors? Full Story
People around the world are sick and tired of the status quo. They are sick and tired of the overly political correctness and the way that the system is attempting to control every aspect of our lives. You can see this growing wave of discontent from the ever-growing amount of politicians getting elected around the world with a nationalist ideology. Full Story
The gold to silver ratio is often cited as an indicator for the precious metals markets. When the ratio is high (gold is relatively strong versus silver), that typically corresponds with a cyclical low area in precious metals prices. When the ratio starts narrowing (silver gains strength versus gold), that typically corresponds with a cyclical bull market in precious metals. Full Story
I have documented seasonal moves in the prices of gold and oil over the past 20 years and copper over 13 years (Mercenary Musings: January 4; March 28; April 11). Now I present our research on the seasonality of the Toronto Venture Exchange. In a series of normalized charts, I will show that for overall, bull, and bear market conditions, there are predictable intra-year trends in the capitalization of the Toronto Venture Exchange (TSXV). Full Story
Within the world of central bank and government gold reserves, there is often an assumption that these gold holdings consist entirely of gold bullion bars. While this is true in some cases, it is not the fully story because many central banks and governments, such as the US, France, Italy, Switzerland, the UK and Venezuela, all hold an element of gold bullion coins as part of their official monetary gold reserves. Full Story
A subscriber asks, “When will the top in stocks be?” My answer is of course ‘I don’t know’. Barrons answer is not yet, which should worry people as you will see below. In terms of making a case for this, my best guess based on things that matter is when speculators have had enough of shorting the market, which is in fact not yet. As mentioned last week in our sentiment study, open interest put / call ratios are still high on too may ETF’s in order to expect significant downside. Full Story
While CNBC and other media outlets continue to hype stocks and talk down Gold, the precious metal is crushing virtually every US-based asset class. Year to date, Gold is up over 20%, compared to nearly 5% for Treasuries and a mere 2.55% for stocks. Full Story
Philippines’ new president-elect Rodrigo Duerte has come out warning mining companies to “shape up,” reports Business Insider. Duerte stated that his incoming government might rewrite laws to limit environmental degradation as a result of mining, continues the article. “I have a big problem with mining companies,” he said. “They are destroying the soil of our country. Full Story
By: Gary Christenson, Deviant Investor - 13 June, 2016
It is wise to question official pronouncements and remain skeptical.
According to reliable sources the Fort Knox Bullion Depository has not been properly audited since the 1950s. Much has happened in six decades. For example: Many gold bars could have disappeared long ago yet remain on official paper records. Full Story
In a world of sophisticated paper assets, we could see a time when hard assets, especially those without counterparty risk, have a renaissance. In the meantime the only thing likely to compete here in London for our attention (other than gold and BREXIT) is our national football team in the Euros. On current performance we may be unlikely to be lifting any silverware soon - but for the rest of us there is clearly another golden opportunity. Full Story
With the zirp, (zero interest rate policy) savings and bonds are not paying any significant interest. In Germany some bunds are paying negative interest rates. Few stocks are paying big dividends and most pay none at all. Everyone is trying to find a decent return on investment without taking on too much risk. The old 5 ¼% savings account interest rates that never seemed that interesting in the past now look mouth watering. Full Story
Chris welcomes Dr. Stephen Leeb, best selling author and head of The Complete Investor. Ultimately, gold will be recognized as the only reliable money, which is why every investment portfolio must include the yellow metal and or PMs shares. Gold could soar more than 8 fold from current levels, to $5,000-$10,000+ per ounce amid a conflagration of global economic challenges. Robert Kiyoaski, America's 'Rich Dad' returns to the show - he just added $1 million of gold to his Fort Knox sized stockpile. The author of Second Chance: for Your Money, Your Life and Our World (2015) and the Rich Dad book series author also penned two books with Presidential candidate, Donald Trump. Full Story
This video explains the characteristics of gold's baby bull and how the adolescent phase just beginning will likely be different - for gold, miners, and silver. Full Story
The gold price didn’t do a lot in Far East trading on their Friday — and was down four bucks or so by the London open. It began to rally from there, but every break-out attempt got sold down before it could get too far — and the evidence is the saw-tooth price action. The high tick of the day came at the London p.m. gold fix — and I was surprised to see price action after the COMEX close on a Friday, because traders are normally nowhere to be found after that. Full Story
The establishment, globalist, elite, 1%, 0.01% whatever you wish to call them they seem to be on a one-way ride straight into the abyss. The global financial systems and global economies all seem to be moving in the same direction at the same time – down the tubes. Of course if you listen to the mainstream media they will be happy to tell you, over and over, about how awesome everything is and how well you are doing. Just keep your eyes on the stock market and you too will know they are being sincere and have your best interest at heart. Anyone with a brain knows nothing could be further from the truth. Full Story
We who inhabit the northern hemisphere will soon enter summer. Many would say summer is already with us – most schools are closed, and a general laziness is beginning to set in – especially for those in the “protected” class. For many of them, summer is a verb. They “summer” in the Hamptons, or Lake Tahoe, or somewhere in the tropics. Full Story
Although a desperate need for consolidation exists in the silver mining sector, the capital to do so seems quite hard to come by since miners are typically viewed as risky borrowers by funding banks. This situation creates significant problems for the supply of silver going forward. If a tech company announced a similar joint venture with a silver miner, it would very likely create an industrial panic and see the price of silver push sharply higher. This move could be large enough to break the global financial system, especially if the famously short bullion banks are not as hedged by offsetting transactions in the OTC sector as they claim to be. Full Story
Of course for every seller there has to be a buyer, so to the extent that these guys are bearish, an equal amount of optimistic capital disagrees with their assessment. Still, between Soros, Druckenmiller, Icahn and Zell there’s about a thousand years of successful, audacious experience, so at a minimum their sudden bearishness should be a comfort to smaller players who have reached the same conclusion. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 12 June, 2016
With leading indicators pointing to a decline in economic activity, U.S. silver imports surged in March. How much did U.S. silver imports increase? They jumped by nearly 20% compared to the previous month. If we take a look at the chart below, we can see how much U.S. silver imports in March increased compared to January and February. Full Story
Stocks showed strength while I was away but have hit resistance levels and are now moving lower. Whether this is just another normal move down to support areas or a major bear market kicking off I do not know but I’m looking for short positions now. That said, I’ll be locking in gains quickly at support areas since that’s just the type of market we’re in at the moment. Full Story
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