Precious Metals continue to be a conundrum. While Gold has trended lower it has failed to break below $1100 as so many expect. It is very strong against foreign currencies and did not break to a new low even as the US$ index rallied from 87 to 100. On the other hand, Gold has failed to sustain any bullish momentum. The gold stocks are even more oversold and have formed some higher lows since last November. Yet, they have failed to sustain any bullish developments and are far from reaching a higher high. Only time will tell which way the sector will break and how its bear market will conclude. Full Story
When determining if a bull move in gold is a probability, a good indicator can be found in the relationship between the junior and senior gold miners etf’s. If a bull move is occurring, the junior gold miners etf (GDXJ) should show indications that it will outperform the senior gold miners etf (GDX). This implies investors are willing to take on more risk in anticipation of greater gains by taking positions in the GDXJ verses the GDX. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 17 April, 2015
The highly-anticipated first-quarter earnings season is in full swing, with traders eager to see how US companies are faring. While expectations are low, these profits releases still collectively pose serious risks for today’s overvalued and overextended US stock markets. A few high-profile misses could prove all it takes to unleash a long-overdue serious selloff. Investors and speculators alike need to remain wary. Full Story
This week, Alamos Gold and AuRico announced a merger worth $1.5 billion. This is all while broad speculation continues that former Xstrata boss Mick Davis is looking to finally deploy his $5.6 billion war chest held by his company, X2 Resources. Common wisdom is that the majority of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) such as these take place at both the peaks and the troughs of the market. In this week’s Chart of the Week, we wanted to take a look at the truth of this statement over the last dozen years. Full Story
As you can see the smoothed graphs of monthly yen and monthly gold are similar. Over the last 8 years of gold prices rallying and crashing, the statistical correlation has been about 0.74. Since the all-time high in gold prices in August 2011, the yen-gold correlation has been an astonishing 0.96. Similarly, the smoothed graph of monthly yen and monthly S&P shows an inverse correlation. Yen down, S&P up, and Wall Street, the Fed, and the Bank of Japan are happy. The statistical correlation over the same 8 year period has been about negative 0.49. Since the all-time high in gold prices in August 2011, the yen-S&P correlation has been a negative 0.97. Full Story
The Fed has been goosing the market for years now with QE and heavy intervention every time it looks like it’s going to drop at the behest of their masters on Wall St, creating massive distortions, which means that if they lose control for whatever reason this whole thing will blow up in their faces. The biggest threat to this enormous Ponzi scheme will be a self-feeding dollar collapse involving a reversal of capital flows, that only a significant rise in rates could halt. The closing up of the giant bearish Rising Wedge shows that we could be very close to this happening. Full Story
As it becomes public knowledge that the IMF has followed the BIS with a warning to brace for a global "liqudity shock", it has become apparent that banks are already taking quick action. It was a liquidity shock in the Asset Backed Commerical Paper (ABCP) market within the Shadow Banking system that caused the last financial crisis. Full Story
Let’s face it; the strong US Dollar and weakness in the price of oil are hurting corporate earnings in the US and it is conceivable that both sales and profits for the S&P500 Index may decline during the first half of the year. Make no mistake; the strong greenback is hurting the American multinationals as their overseas sales and earnings are being diminished in their reporting currency. Furthermore, due to last year’s slide in crude oil, the energy industry is really struggling and earnings in the sector have fallen off the edge of a cliff! Full Story
“How can you not be romantic about baseball?” asks Jonah Hill in the movie Moneyball, based on Michael Lewis’s 2003 book of the same name. How can you not? I have always liked that thinkers tend to be fond of this game, like the late David Halberstam and George Will and even Keith Olbermann. I loved to play ball, but I was only average. I spent more time in my room playing with statistics, with a pencil and notebook, before the existence of computers and spreadsheets. Full Story
There are two connected reasons usually cited for the current dollar strength: the US economy is performing better than all the others, leading towards relatively higher US dollar interest rates, and that this is triggering a scramble for dollars by foreign corporations with uncovered USD liabilities. There is growing evidence that the first of these reasons is no longer true, in which case the pressure to buy dollars should lessen considerably. Full Story
A reassessment of economic prospects and Fed policy in the weeks and months ahead could be just the turn of events that will support a springtime recovery in the price of gold, lifting the yellow metal up and out of its recent trading range. Gold prices have been trading in recent weeks mostly between $1,175 and $1,225 an ounce. And, unless and until some “outside the market” surprise comes along to push gold one way or the other, the yellow metal could remain range bound for some weeks to come. Full Story
Although sometimes we doubt whether the Fed is going to increase interest rates soon, it is worth analyzing the consequences of such a game-changing move. The hike would be the first in nearly a decade. Theoretical effects of rising interest rates are well-known: higher interest rates mean higher borrowing costs (something to consider: if you have a variable rate mortgage and believe that Fed will eventually hike interest rates, think about locking in at current low rates with a fixed-rate mortgage), lower asset prices, reduced risk-premium and a stronger greenback. Full Story
I will take you back to the quote from Li Keqiang about printing money. The financial markets are between a rock and a hard spot. Print with abandon and eventually runaway inflation is inevitable. Stop the printing presses and the markets and the economy are pulled into a vortex of illiquidity (which translates to a downward stock and bond price spiral and all it portends for financial institutions). In either eventuality, gold is the one asset that stands apart from the potential maelstrom of counterparty risk and/or runaway inflation – an ark of sorts, a weighty portfolio anchor and an asset in which China, and others concerned about contemporary monetary policy, take an abiding interest. Full Story
When investors pour cash into a market, all else being equal – prices rise. And when investors pull cash from a market – prices fall. If we accept that simple relationship, and agree that the basic laws of supply and demand apply to investments just like they do to the rest of economics, this could mean that we are in the early stages of a tidal reversal in the investment markets – which just may change everything when it comes to our future income and standards of living. Full Story
The banking system is supposed to be the backbone of the economy is it not. Ok maybe not. Many tout small business as the backbone of the economy. That is most likely a myth as well. Big business helps create numerous small businesses so that would make big business the backbone of the economy. It is the financial and banking system that greases the economy. So one would think that the bank stocks would be amongst the strongest sectors on the NYSE. But the chart above of the PHLX KBW Bank Index appears to suggest that is not the case. The KBW Bank Index remains well below its highs of 2008. Full Story
We've long been familiar with capital controls, such as daily limits on bank withdrawals. Add that to seven years of microscopic interest rates cannibalizing savers' nest eggs combined with planned inflation stealing your money while you sleep. But unlike the drip-drip we're used to, the bail-in will come upon you quickly, harshly, and with finality. Full Story
A catchy title this "$5,000 Silver?" don't you think? Am I crazy? Is this even possible? In who's lifetime? Ours or our great, great grandchildren long after we are dead and buried? The best way to look at this I believe is to briefly look at silver's big brother gold and then postulate whether it's possible or not. Full Story
It would have seemed impossible a few years ago. How many of us would have guessed that US interest rates would be just a hair above zero? The sad thing is that the Federal Reserve Bank’s zero-interest-rate policy has taken away income from savers—largely senior citizens—and transferred it to stock market investors. All those years of thrift and responsible saving have been undermined by Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke, and Janet Yellen. Full Story
Gold has a scary habit of pulling out of its all-too-frequent kamikaze dives just before splattering on the deck, technically speaking. If, for one, yesterday’s selloff had exceeded 1187.20 to the downside, we might have expected it to continue to at least 1175.60. Instead, bulls showed up in a nick of time, turning the futures higher from 1188.30. The result was an impulsive rally on the hourly chart that has kept alive the large, bullish pattern shown. It projects to as high as 1227.50 over the near term, with only a single significant impediment between here and there: a midpoint resistance at 1205.50. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 15 April, 2015
As this is federal and state tax deadline day in the United States, it's worth being reminded by Beardsley Ruml, the former chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and instigator of federal income tax withholding, that, in a fiat currency system, governments can create infinite money, that in doing so they are limited only by potential debasement of the currency, and that taxes thereby have nothing to do with raising revenue but rather are instruments of social policy and control. Full Story
The most memorable scene in the film adaptation of Glengarry Glen Ross is when Alec Baldwin’s character—a hotshot real estate broker from the prestigious Mitch and Murray agency—tells a group of struggling real estate agents that it takes “brass balls to sell real estate.” There’s probably some truth to that, but it takes bigger cojones to buy what everyone else hates. Full Story
Back in March, Comex silver prices surged 13% in just 6 days as a massive Spec short position was squeezed. Could the same setup be appearing again, primed for squeezing later this month? It certainly appears that way. Recall first the circumstances surrounding the squeeze last month. Conventional wisdom held that the FOMC meeting of March 17-18 was going to precede some sort of announcement of an imminent Fed Funds rate hike. In anticipation, momo-chasing Spec fund money came flowing into the short side of Comex silver. Full Story
Much speculation abounds regarding China's gold holdings. They officially claim 1,054 tons as of April 2009. We suspected they might "re" announce their holdings again last year at this time as it was five years after their last announcement and China has a habit of "five year plans". Alisdair Mcleod believes they have 20,000 tons or more which very well may be the case, I can easily make a case their holdings are far in excess of 10,000 tons just from the data since 2009. In the words of our newest presidential candidate, "at this point, what difference does it make?". We'll get to this shortly. Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, President and CEO Euro Pacific Capital & Russell Hoss, Portfolio Advisor at New Sheridan Advisors - 15 April, 2015
Although China's economy has been leading the world in annualized growth since the days that mobile phones had retractable antennas, there have always been some aspects of the country's commercial and financial system that loudly broadcast the underlying illogic of a Communist Party's firm control of burgeoning capitalism. China's stock markets were one such venue where things just didn't add up...literally. Full Story
There is so much data flying around out there. From the Credit data we reviewed yesterday to weakening manufacturing and exports to employment up nicely one month and down big the next, to frisky consumers (the economy’s ‘back end’, putting it nicely) out there confidently living it up. Big pictures help us let it all simmer and take out the noise. Here is a big picture for you… and it is an unchanged story; America has eaten its financial seed corn (replacing it with the soft meal known has credit) and financial market analysis is now in the hands of data freaks parsing and quantifying every little twitch on short time frames to draw conclusions and extrapolations based on little more than a black hole (that would be debt). Full Story
When the reset comes, and it may be years away, would you rather hold assets that are based on debt, trust in a possibly insolvent counter-party, and denominated in the currency of an increasingly insolvent government and central bank . . . . or physical gold and silver? Do you trust real silver and gold, or unbacked paper assets based on the promises of self-serving politicians and central bankers? These should be easy questions to answer when you realize that exponentially increasing debt, expenses, and commodity prices all point to inevitable and serious financial and social trauma. Full Story
Today’s chart is a composite weekly that shows the entire bull market, going back to 2009. You don’t need a degree in technical analysis to see that it has gone on for long enough to be considered mature. On the other hand, the average bull market lasts 97 months; this one is only in its 74th month. From a purely visual standpoint, however, it lacks a dramatic ending. Look at the price action since December. Stumbling and bumbling its way higher since last November, the S&Ps’ tortured ascent clearly suggests a topping process, but not an actual top. Full Story
Several months ago, I presented you with an “evil” plan, with which the metals and miners have followed through quite well with regard to their downside movements. However, since that time, they have been acting more like kittens rather than evil patterns. They have been meandering in quite corrective looking fashion for quite some time now. But, I still believe we need to see much stronger bullish sentiment before we can begin our run to the lower lows for which we have been in search for quite some time now. Full Story
One proposed solution to Greece’s European debt problem is for the mediterranean country to abandon the euro and resurrect its old currency, the drachma. In his April Gold Videocast, Peter Schiff explains why a new drachma would be ideal for Greek politicians, but a disaster for Greek citizens and creditors. Peter also reveals why the United States faces the same debt dilemma as Greece. There’s just one major difference – the US already has a currency it can devalue. Full Story
Many gold stocks have staged spectacular rallies in 2015, and held their gains, but that’s not reflected in the GDX and GDXJ ETFs because other component stocks have languished. As the love trade intensifies and US wage inflation becomes widely recognized, top bank analysts will inspire mainstream money managers to buy more gold stocks. The ETFs will begin to stage bigger rallies as that happens, and hold the gains. Full Story
In conclusion, what enabled the oil and gas industry to extract oil from shale rock over the past 7 years was higher prices. If it weren’t for higher oil prices, the capital investment needed in the oil and gas sector, wouldn’t have occurred, and US oil production would have continued to decline. Full Story
No, we're not talking about 4G phones, nor God, gold, guns and grub. Today let's look at GE, Greece, and finish with a very interesting Germany and Gazprom. Last week GE shocked the market place by announcing they will sell their crown jewel GE Capital. Why would they do this? Isn't GE capital their growth engine? Isn't it their cash cow? What could they possibly be thinking? In my opinion they are "thinking" correctly, maybe a bit too late though. Full Story
The bank will not only loan out “your” money, they will use it as as reserves to loan out even more than what you deposited in the first place. The justification for this is simply that you probably won’t claim “your” money back any time soon anyways. If you were to claim it back together with only a few percent of the other depositors, the bank would go bankrupt. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 13 April, 2015
Attention, mainstream financial journalists! Here's something else important for you to ignore this week, thanks to the diligent eye of gold researcher and GATA consultant Ronan Manly. It's a breakfast meeting to be held Friday in Washington for "a select group of central banks and other official-sector institutions," sponsored by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum and the World Gold Council, to discuss "gold, the renminbi, and the multicurrency system," convened in conjunction with the spring meeting of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Group, a United Nations agency... Full Story
If it's to be taken seriously, the latest Bank Participation Report from the CFTC shows a completion of the full "wash and rinse" cycle from January. Does this set the stage for a renewed move higher in price? Not necessarily. However, the decks are finally clear should renewed buying interest in paper metal materialize in the weeks ahead. Full Story
We live in a world where all currencies are “fiat”, none backed by gold, silver, oil or anything else. Yes of course the dollar, otherwise known as the “petrodollar” has functioned and survived (so far) based on oil revenues being recycled back into U.S. Treasury bonds, but this has been changing over recent years. The change has accelerated greatly over the last five years. This era of “fiat” everywhere and real money nowhere is now 44 years long in the tooth and the very first time in human history there was no alternative currency with a real foundation. Full Story
In the early 2000s, Alan Greenspan was worried about deflation. So he hired Ben Bernanke, the self-proclaimed expert on the Great Depression from Princeton. The idea was that with Bernanke as his right hand man, Greenspan could put off deflation from hitting the US. Indeed, one of Bernanke’s first speeches was titled “Deflation: Making Sure It Doesn't Happen Here" Full Story
Gold rose for the first time in four days on Friday after holdings in exchange-traded products (ETPs) backed by bullion saw the largest increase in more than six weeks. Silver rose the most in a week. March gold imports for India came in at about 125 tons versus 60 tons a year ago. Furthermore, year-to-date (YTD) imports are at about 900 tons versus 662 tons the previous year. Full Story
This isn’t yet another in a long series of articles lamenting the Federal Reserve, power, politicians, corruption, and the hopelessness of fighting the status quo. What’s the marginal utility of the Nth plus one article reiterating these points? Nearly zero. No, this article is about something else. Full Story
In this Weekend Report I would like to show you some charts on the US stock markets along with some overseas markets as things are starting to heat up. It’s beginning to look like a world wide event taking place. Some of the European stock markets are breaking out of huge bases along with some Asian countries. Even in the US several of our stock market sectors are just a stones throw away from breaking out to new highs. I think it’s a good thing to see a lot of the worlds stock markets in bullish mode. Full Story
The stronger than expected February’s job market report fuelled expectations that the Fed will increase interest rates sooner rather than later. We believed that market reaction was a bit exaggerated, and suggested in the Gold News Monitor not taking the hike for granted. The U.S. recovery is not as strong as it is commonly believed (as it was confirmed by the downgraded Fed’s economic projections) and there are many downside risks, such as Greece’s crisis, stubbornly low inflation, sluggish wage growth, the Chinese and global slowdown and too strong a greenback, which may stall the Fed’s hike. Full Story
Two robust, ABC uptrends of different degree are driving this rally, auguring a successful voyage to the 1238.90 target we’ve been using to stay abreast of the move. It has been relatively easy to trade, since the swing highs and lows have come more or less where expected, at Hidden Pivot supports and resistances. Night owls who are looking to jump aboard or augment a bullish position should use charts of 5-minute degree or less to fashion a BC-type pullback from just above the ‘external’ peak at 1212.50 recorded on April 8. Full Story
James Turk returns to the program with comments on Fed profligacy, which will eventually send the yellow metal into the stratosphere, already up 10% against the euro currency in 2015. Expect safe haven buying in the euro zone to intensify, making precious metals investments once again the asset class du jour. For the first time this century, the NY Fed's gold reserves recently dropped below 6,000 tons, hinting that officials are manipulating the market lower via covert gold sales. John Williams returns to Goldseek.com Radio with dire thoughts on the veracity of the official economic figures. The domestic economy has not recovered - virtually every economic indicator remains stagnant since 2009. Full Story
Although gold has rallied as expected in the last update, the advance has been modest and now it appears to be weakening again, and with its latest COTs showing a marked deterioration and the dollar maintaining its parabolic acceleration, it looks set to drop back along with silver. The long-term uptrend remains down. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 12 April, 2015
Zero Hedge tonight publishes a long excerpt from what may be the most recent serious treatment of the Bank for International Settlements, the 2013 book "Tower of Basel: The Shadowy History of the Secret Bank That Runs the World" by Adam LeBor - and while it's worth reading, it may not convey much new to people who have been following GATA for more than a few months, since GATA often has called attention to the bank's crucial role in rigging the gold market on behalf of its member central banks. Full Story
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is authorized to use its gold holdings to engage in gold location swaps and has done so frequently in the past. This has involved gold location swaps with the entities who maintain the gold vaults where the IMF stores its gold, such as the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the Bank of England and the Banque de France, and also other entities such as the Bank for International Settlements who also maintain gold accounts at the same vaults as the IMF does. Full Story
The primary goals for the launch of the SGEI was to facilitate gold trading in renminbi, improve price discovery in renminbi and internationalize the renminbi. The Chinese consider gold as an indispensable component of China’s financial market and for the renminbi to internationalize the renminbi-gold market has to internationalize. It could be that the spike in trading volume of iA99.99 was an incidental burp, it could also be we’re witnessing the Chinese international gold exchange entering its adolescence. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 12 April, 2015
The Western U.S. Dollar based monetary system is headed for a train wreck. This isn’t a matter of IF, it’s a matter of WHEN. Investors lulled to sleep by the low paper price of gold are losing out on the best buying opportunity of a lifetime. The precious metals will be one of the best insurance policies to own when the U.S. Dollar finally catches on fire and burns down the entire system. Full Story
There is little going on in the precious metals markets that indicates directional movement to the upside, and not even much to the downside. The news is as disjointed but permeated with sameness as ever before. To try to make sense of nonsense remains in the theater of the absurd. All we have to offer are the current read of charts, and they are an extension of what they have been like for the last several weeks. Full Story
U.S. Markets remain trading within larger patterns, or range-bound, but are approaching upper levels within those ranges while the dominant trend remains higher. Stocks are setting up better charts by the day and have really come around in the last week or two and it does finally look like we will see a sustainable breakout where I can get all into stocks for 6 to 8 weeks. Full Story
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