It is my great privilege to be joined now by James Rickards. Mr. Rickards is editor of Strategic Intelligence, a monthly newsletter, and Director of the James Rickards Project, an inquiry into the complex dynamics of geopolitics and global capital. He's also the author of several bestselling books including The Death of Money, Currency Wars, The New Case for Gold, and now his latest book The Road To Ruin. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 17 February, 2017
The gold miners’ stocks have blasted higher in this young new year, far outpacing the broader markets. But surprisingly gold stocks’ trading volume has diverged from their powerful rally. Volume has actually been waning on balance since gold stocks’ newest upleg was born in mid-December. While volume is a complex nuanced indicator, this bullishly suggests that major gold-stock buying hasn’t even started yet. Full Story
We have one expert after another predicting that it is time for the markets to crash; mind you these same chaps sang this same terrible song of Gloom in 2015, 2016 and now they are singing it with the same passion in 2017. There is one noteworthy factor, though; a few former Bulls have joined the pack. Does this now mean that the markets are going to crash? Apparently not, well, at least if you look at the indices, as of Jan the market continues to trend higher. Furthermore, what is a crash or for that matter a pullback or a correction? Full Story
World Gold Council data released earlier this month reveal a paradox. Demand hit 4,389 tons during 2016, but mines produced only 3,236 tons. Yet despite differing supply demand fundamentals, gold prices rose by only 9%. A supply squeeze that size, should have produced far bigger price action. What gives? As with many of life’s mysteries, a good place to start is with Chinese thinkers. No, not Confucius, Lao Tse, or even Sun Tzu. I am talking about Bruce Lee. Full Story
Janet Yellen concluded another FED meeting on Tuesday, in which she testified in front of Congress. Members of the Democratic party attempted to get her to come out and denounce President Trump's policies, but she instead kept to her expected "neutral" position and said nothing of the sort. Minor critiques and cautions were given to the new administration on treading lightly into any major tax reforms or cuts in government spending, but this is nothing unusual, and par for the course, no matter which party is in office. Full Story
The bottom line is that we are approaching a point that we’ve awaited since last summer. That would be a top (of some kind) in the US stock market and a confirmed new bull phase in counter-cyclical gold. While everything is on track with this plan, neither of these things are confirmed yet and what we all need to do is have logical plans, but also have open minds that can subordinate bias in favor of dealing with what is. After all, that is exactly what got us here successfully in the first place. Full Story
Reflation is coming. We argue that the recent comeback of inflation is negative for the gold market. Why should that be so? Should not inflation support gold, which is considered the inflation hedge? It is true that gold may shine during inflationary times, but a lot depends on the broader macroeconomic picture. Gold entered a bull market in the 1970s, but the U.S. economy was in a stagflation then, i.e. the combination of high inflation and sluggish economic growth. And inflation was high and accelerating. Will this scenario replay now? Full Story
It was Karl Marx who was among the first believers that cyclical behaviour was endemic to free markets. He lived through a time when there was a regular cycle of boom and bust, with phases of economic expansion followed by contraction. Workers were employed and then unemployed, and the only way this could be stopped, in Marxian economics, was for the workers to acquire the means of production, or more correctly, the state to do so on their behalf. Full Story
One has to be amazed at the strength of the US stock markets as they climb relentlessly to new highs on a wave of easy money, stock buy backs and short covering and all despite a lack of major retail participation. The market continues to ignore growing danger signs. The key indicator may be the Case Shiller PE Ratio that most recently was at 28.85, a level seen only three times in the past century; in 1929,before the October 1929 stock market crash and the Great Depression, and in 1999, before the peak of the Internet/high-tech bull market that presaged the 2000–2002 Tech Wreck crash. Full Story
On 5 February, the Financial Times of London (FT) featured a story revealing that the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) plans to begin publishing data on the amount of real physical gold actually stored in the London precious metals vaulting network. The article titled “London gold traders to open vaults in transparency push” can be read here (accessible via FT subscription or via free monthly FT read limit). Full Story
The intermediate trends for the dollar, gold and miners will have many weeks to continue before we should anticipate a change in direction. The weekly momentum indicators and sentiment readings suggest the dollar will continue to fall while gold and miners will continue to rise. Full Story
Making his debut show appearance, Bix Weir of RoadtoRoot-A discusses his silver market research efforts. Due to financial derivatives and sophisticated algorithms, the Fed / Treasury control the PMs markets. The former Head Chairman, Sir Dr. Allen Greenspan wrote the first Root-A program at the Fed. Full Story
The Gold Trade Note is gradually coming into view, its form within structured contracts is taking shape as components. the Petro-Dollar has almost completely vanished. The Petro-Yuan is essentially here in its infancy, in rudimentary form. the leap to the Gold Trade Note will be easy, once the pieces are aligned and in place. This new note for usage in secure trade settlement is in the inception process. It will be structured within existing trading vehicles and platforms. The Russians and Chinese appear to be forming the basis for the payment vehicle within the oil trade. Consider it as a formal reflection of the Iran-India gold for oil trade. Full Story
In 1980, the US government – along with pretty much all of its peers – began borrowing at an accelerating rate. Note on the following chart how the trend line steepened in the 2000s and then steepened again in this decade, with a sudden and unexpected pop in 2015 and early 2016, even as the current recovery entered its 8th year. Full Story
On Monday I had the opportunity to attend a conference at Goldman Sachs’ Dallas office. Among the dozens of money managers and investors who attended, a combined $1 trillion in assets was represented. The speakers were numerous, from famed economist Jan Hatzius, Goldman’s head of global economics, to Jeff Currie, global head of commodities research. Everyone was exceedingly smart and articulate, and I left the conference feeling recharged with much to think about. Full Story
The dollar is possibly completing the right shoulder of a head and shoulders pattern. Overnight price completed a swing high suggesting a decent possibility the daily cycle has topped. Several scenarios for the dollar’s future price movement are discussed, as well as the implications for price performance of gold related investments. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 16 February, 2017
In testimony before Congress this week, Yellen aggressively talked the Fed’s book, asserting that the U.S. economy looks so hunky-dory these days that the rate hikes she keeps promising are absolutely, definitely, positively coming. Let’s see if she changes her tune when the housing and auto sectors turn down sharply, as appears all but certain. Substantially higher mortgage rates, coupled with rising home prices caused by tight supply, have already killed off first-time buyers and the re-fi market. Full Story
Isn't it interesting that, all of a sudden and after eight years of supposedly flat prices and deflation fears, all the rage is "surging inflation" and this phenomena may "force the Fed to act" to raise rates again as soon as March? I don't know. Maybe there really is a sudden surge of price inflation? How would I know when I'm just a dope with a MacBook? However, I think it's fair to be more than a little skeptical...especially when it comes to the efficacy of government-created data. Full Story
Similar to the tragic water reservoir failure currently unfolding in California, Rob Kirby of Kirby Analytics identifies extreme risks to the financial markets. Even the mainstream press is starting to acknowledge the risks posed by market manipulation schemes, in particular, in the PMs sector. Bitcoin GBTC is one of the few remaining de facto free markets, for the most part, as institutions have few short-selling options available. Full Story
The consensus view in the precious metals sector is that we have embarked on the next great bull market in gold and silver. The story is gold and the entire mining sector bottomed in early 2016 and launched into its first leg up into early August. The sector then underwent a stiff correction from August to December, and has now finally found its legs and the upward advance has resumed. Money is now flowing into exploration and development plays reflecting the belief in this narrative. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 15 February, 2017
First and foremost, interest rates are the price of time. They reflect the fact that, all else being equal, humans place a higher value on getting something now than on getting exactly the same thing at some future time. Interest rates transcend money, because they exist even when money does not. With or without money and all else being equal, getting something now will always be worth more than getting the same thing in the future**. This is called time preference. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 15 February, 2017
Buyers exceeded my 2333.75 minimum upside objective by a decisive four points on Tuesday, meaning it’s time to raise our sights. We need only slide down to a new point ‘A’ — in this case, a 2177.00 low recorded on December 5 (see inset) — to produce a fresh target at 2384.75 noted here earlier. That would equate to a Dow rally of about 450 points, which is no big deal these days, especially if it occurs over the course of a week. This target should work, and very precisely. This means that: 1) I am confident it will be achieved; and 2) there is likely to be a tradable pullback from it, give or take no more than a point or two. Full Story
The world’s foremost silver analyst Theodore Butler has done it again. He has elaborated another bullish factor so powerful it screams at us to buy silver. As you know, Mr. Butler is the supreme expert on futures trading in silver. The reason that this knowledge is so important is because the COMEX is the primary place where silver prices are set. Forget about China, the dollar, the economy or whatever reason the media reports. Billion dollar banks, hedge funds and computerized trading monolith’s set the price on the COMEX. Full Story
The stock market continues to make new highs, yet none of the signs which accompany a market bubble are evident. Investors are asking, “When will the Dow finally correct?” By “correct” they mean “decline.” However, a market correction doesn’t always entail a decline for the major averages and can sometimes take the form of a lateral consolidation or trading range. That appears to be the case for the 2-month period from December through early February when the Dow and SPX made little headway. Full Story
The world’s ultimate asset, gold bullion, continues to act superbly. That’s because fundamental, cyclical, and technical price drivers are very positive and are in play at the same time. Gold is poised to burst upside from a small bull wedge pattern, after recoiling from $1250 area resistance. Support sits at $1222, and testimony from Janet Yellen today along with key US retail data tomorrow could be the fundamental catalysts that launch gold’s next assault on that $1250 zone. Full Story
For 2016 international merchandise trade statistics point out China has net imported roughly 1,300 tonnes of gold, down 17 % from 2015. The importance of measuring gold imports into the Chinese domestic gold market – which are prohibited from being exported – is to come to the best understanding on the division of above ground reserves in and outside the Chinese domestic market. Full Story
"Captain Donald" and his carefully recruited crew are all boarding the USS Economy which is a ship that has been taking on serious water for some time. Few crew member have yet to take full measure of the hurricane on the horizon lest they rain on the election 'euphoria' parade. A hurricane of fiscal debt (~$20T), unfunded liabilities (~$84T) and soon to be tested contingent liabilities (~$220T fiscal gap) which appears to be a category 5++ level. Full Story
Although it might not have purchased any gold in 2016, the Deutsche Bundesbank, Germany’s central bank, ramped up its repatriation program, bringing home some 216 metric tons from vaults in New York, according to the Wall Street Journal. In 2011, former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke said central banks held gold simply because it’s tradition. I think the reason goes much deeper than that. Gold is money—it has been ever since the first gold currency appeared in China more than 3,000 years ago—and Germany’s efforts are proof of that. Full Story
Originally published in January 2015 – If you have the slightest of concerns about your wealth please listen to the interview and read the article. Please keep in mind this is an ongoing crime, it has not been addressed for more than 40 years. Today, the day you read this article, it is impacting every pension fund, every IRA, every 401k and any other account that passes through these criminal organizations. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 14 February, 2017
Banksters and others with a stake in the euro shouldn’t get their hopes too high, since the long-term charts point unambiguously to a target just below 82 cents (see inset). There will be rallies, of course, since sellers are piling onto this no-brainer trade in such preponderance that there will occasionally be no one left to sell. That would appear to have been the case until very recently, two months into a dead-cat bounce that actually tripped a ‘mechanical’ short-sale signal when it hit the green line two weeks ago. Full Story
No ‘rope-a-dope’ for Donald Trump. He’s come out of the corner swinging. So far he has signed six controversial bills in only the first few days, and you can be sure more are to come. The only problem with fighters like this is they burn out fast however, where all too often they effectively punch themselves out in the early going. In this regard, it could be argued that’s what happened to him with his Atlantic City Casinos. One casino wasn’t enough for The Donald. Then they all got in trouble because of his huge ego – and needed a bailout. Full Story
You’d think that by now every relevant measure of stock market overvaluation would have been converted into a chart and circulated throughout the blogosphere. But Zero Hedge has come up with a new one depicting how long the typical wage slave has to work to buy the typical stock. And – surprise – it shows historic, egregious overvaluation which, if history is any guide, implies a crash is close at hand. Full Story
The global war on cash rolls on. The cabal of bankers seeking more transaction fees, busybody political leaders, and central bankers who want to experiment with negative interest rates recently threw India into turmoil by eliminating the two largest denomination bank notes. Now they are preparing a similar assault on Europeans’ ability to transact privately and without giving bankers a cut. Full Story
One aspect of the precious metals market today that I like is the Gold Silver Ratio. It appears to have topped, right along with the 2016 gold bottom, and for all gold bull followers out there this is certainly a welcomed development. Precious metals bear markets always hit silver hard, while bull markets always see Silver outperform gold. As a result, the Gold Silver Ratio rises during bear markets and then falls during bull markets. Full Story
Gold traders keep their bullish calls on gold for a seventh week as bullion is trading near three-month high levels due to uncertainty around President Donald Trump and the upcoming French elections. French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen announced her party’s plan to take control of the central bank. She plans to use the central bank to print money to finance French welfare programs and debt repayments after abandoning the euro. Bloomberg reports that since Trump said the dollar is too strong, hedge fund and other money managers have cut their bets on the dollar. Full Story
I would like to update the US dollar as its been testing critical support since breaking out from the nearly 2 year horizontal trading range in early November of last year. The daily line chart shows there was a nice clean backtest about a month later to the top rail which looked like breaking out and backtesting process was complete. After a short rally and making a higher high the US dollar declined once more to the top rail causing a lot of uncertainty for many traders. After a slight breach of the top rail the US dollar is now trading back above that very important trendline. So far at this point there is nothing to conclude the bull market that started in 2011 is over at least accordingly to the daily line chart. Full Story
For the most part we see marginal rates going down, though the revised deductions and other features make direct comparisons difficult. For instance, look at that 33% top rate, which begins at $202,150 for single taxpayers and $255,450 for married couples filing jointly. If this plan is enacted, very few people will pay 33%, firstly because not all that many people make that much income, but also because those who do are frequently self-employed professionals or business owners. This is incredibly important. Self-employed individuals will essentially have a top tax rate of 25% – assuming they can figure out reasonably quickly how to game the system (and my bet is they can). Full Story
This week, the prices of the metals moved up on Monday. Then the gold price went sideways for the rest of the week, but the silver price jumped on Friday. Is this the rocket ship to $50? Will Trump’s stimulus plan push up the price of silver? Or just push silver speculators to push up the price, at their own expense, again? Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 13 February, 2017
Trade, by definition, is not an adversarial situation resulting in a winner and a loser. Rather, both parties believe that they are benefiting, otherwise the trade would not take place. Most of the time, both parties do benefit. In general, one side wants a particular product more than a certain quantity of money and the other side wants the quantity of money more than the product. When the exchange takes place, both sides get the thing to which they assign the higher value at the time. Full Story
Rogue economist, John Williams of Shadowstats.com says the US dollar rally is a fata morgana, a rate hike bluff by Fed policymakers. The 2008 market collapse / Great Recession never ended; the Treasury / Fed merely sidestepped financial calamity at an enormous cost. Peter Grandich of Peter Grandich and Company and host discuss one analyst's call for a seemingly outlandish silver price range of $100,000-1,000,000 silver. Bix Weir makes a solid case for a 1:1:1 gold / silver / Dow ratio due to unique supply / demand conditions. Full Story
While I haven’t had the privilege of divine revelation, I do try to look at the forces that are in play that have the power to move nations economically. Two dominant countervailing forces right now are those who have George Soros nearly in tears — who make up the anti-global revolution — and then all the globalists like Soros who are panicking that their new world order is being shredded accompanied by all the raging anarchists that Soros can sponsor as his mercenaries. Full Story
Week 3 of the Trump Presidency - same as the first two. Confusion and chaos. Setting aside the side shows of the court challenges over the seven country ban, Trump’s trashing of the judges and the judiciaries decisions which brought a rebuke from his Supreme Court nominee, the slow painful process of the confirmation of his cabinet picks including the first ever Vice President vote to break a deadlock in the Senate, Trump’s fractured phone calls with world leaders, Trump’s about face on the “One-China” policy, the cost for the Mexico “border wall” was estimated to cost $21.6 billion and take 3.5 years to complete... Full Story
In a bull market surprises come to the upside and it’s never advisable to lose one’s core position. This rally isn’t going to top until sentiment gets excessively bullish. Right now sentiment is dead neutral and it will take 5-10 more weeks before sentiment reaches 75% or higher. Full Story
The gold price was under a bit of selling pressure in the first two hours and change after trading began at 6:00 p.m. EST in New York on Thursday evening. Then it traded pretty flat until about an hour before the London open. It then got knocked down to its low tick of the day. It rallied a titch into the COMEX open, but then was sold down until shortly after the equity markets opened in New York. The rally that developed at that point had a lot more legs to it, but it was more than obvious that it was running into ‘resistance’ from “all the usual suspects”. Most of the gains that mattered were in by around 11:30 a.m. EST — and it didn’t do much after that. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 12 February, 2017
Today's report from Sputnik News, a division of the Russian government's international information agency, shows just how closely that government is watching not just the gold market but also, it seems, GATA's work. That is, the report addresses suspicions raised by GATA's friends in Germany's "Repatriate Our Gold" movement and reported almost exclusively by GATA that Germany's gold reserves vaulted with the United States were never more than gold credits until the Bundesbank sought to repatriate the gold in recent years. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 12 February, 2017
The Great Precious Metals Market Disconnect that took place four years ago is now a ticking TIME BOMB. While the Fed and Central Banks have been relatively successful in propping up the broader stock, bond and real estate markets, time is not on their side. The more the highly inflated markets continue higher, the more breath-taking will be the inevitable collapse. Full Story
By: Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT, MFTA - 12 February, 2017
The precious metals sector has reached the upside targets we’ve written about since the start of 2017. Gold has touched almost $1250/oz ($1246/oz high) while GDXJ exceeded our $41 target and GDX nearly reached $26. The glass half empty case is the sector is now at strong resistance levels and any immediate upside will be difficult to sustain. On the other hand, the gold stocks are showing the internal (strong advance/decline line) and relative strength (leadership against Gold) that bodes for additional gains. Full Story
I have lots to get to today, culminating in some good old-fashioned financial analysis. You know, what I was trained to do in college, the CFA program, and 16 years working on Wall Street – until economic collapse and unprecedented government “intervention” all but destroyed my vocation; forcing me into a “second career” in the mining business, which the government destroyed as well; and subsequently, my third – and hopefully, final – career in the bullion industry. Which despite relentless, draconian efforts, the government cannot, and will not, be able to destroy. Full Story
It’s easy, as the world’s zombie economies just keep shuffling along, to start assuming that the current system will endure forever. That would be wrong, and almost certainly the above warnings will someday seem prescient. All the more reason to forget about timing, and keep buying real assets. Full Story
Gold did close the week out with a 1.24% gain. I’m not sure if we’re moving lower near $1,200 to put in a lower high, which would be another notch in the trend is up bedpost, or of we will see a longer basing period. Miners are acting weaker for the most part so it’s really quite a mixed message in the metals for now. There are many place to find easy money right now and I don’t see the precious metals as that place, for now at least. Full Story
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