By: Robert Ross, Casey Research - 17 February, 2012
This week, President Obama released his $3.8-trillion budget for fiscal year 2013. The plan calls for new taxes on the wealthy, a restructuring of the tax code, and short-term infrastructure spending aimed at boosting the economy (albeit artificially). Full Story
Part X of the “Dominant Causes of the Credit Crisis” describes the amazing growth of China over the last three decades and the crucial role played by its export industry in supporting this growth. It also shows why China cannot rely too heavily on exports for future growth. This article will focus on the sustainability of China’s remarkable GDP growth. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 17 February, 2012
Over the past few years, the fortunes of Europe’s euro currency have appeared to significantly influence the US stock markets. This rather-curious relationship has proved vexing at times to American traders, as it doesn’t seem logical on the surface. But given the high correlation between the US stock markets and the euro, prudent traders can’t ignore its impact. And the euro’s state today is very bullish for US stocks. Full Story
We like Warren Buffett. We respect Warren Buffett. We’d love to sit and have lunch with him one day. As an investor, Warren Buffett is in a class all of his own. But the Oracle of Omaha just keeps bashing gold at every opportunity. Full Story
Investors are currently risk adverse and mining stocks are not well understood by the general investing public, but at least one thing is going to become very apparent to most -the best way to hedge yourself against inflation could be owning silver. Full Story
Ever since early fall 2010, long-dated silver futures have been in backwardation. This means the price of a silver future for, say, Dec 2015, was *lower* than the price of silver in the spot market. One could have earned a "risk free" profit by simultaneously selling physical silver and buying a future. When the future delivered, one would have the same silver holding. Full Story
Under “Operation Twist” The Fed bought 64% of all U.S. Treasury Securities with maturities of 8 to 10 years, and 91%! of those maturing in 20 to 30 years. All with hundreds of billions of Fiat Money created for “free” out of thin air (no wonder wheat prices were up 12% and corn up 10% at one point in January!). The Bond Vigilantes have been nearly neutered by The Fed, temporarily. Full Story
Let’s turn our attention to a cycle which we’ve rarely discussed over the years. The Kress 24-year cycle is one of the components of the 120-year cycle series which is scheduled to bottom in 2014. The 24-year cycle tends to get eclipsed by the longer-term cycles like the 40-year and 60-year cycles (both of which have a major impact on equity prices and the economy). But the 24-year cycle takes on a special significance all on its own: it’s the cycle of war. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 17 February, 2012
The willfully ignorant sneering about gold in the mainstream financial news media never stops. The latest example comes from The Wall Street Journal's Liam Denning, who snickers in commentary appended here that support for gold now should be coming from central bankers, the scourge of gold bugs. Denning writes that "central bank buying masks the impact of weak jewelry demand, slowing increases in investment flows, and higher supply." Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman and Tom McCafferty - 17 February, 2012
A while back, our good friend Tom McCafferty argued here that few investments are likely to outperform Canadian farmland over time. In the essay below, he explains how you can invest in Canadian farmland yourself. Besides being a former farm realtor, Tom is the author of numerous acclaimed books on trading. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 16 February, 2012
Last week we informed you that Iran claims to hold 907 tonnes of in gold reserves. This week we’re informed that Iran is using gold or oil to buy food as new financial sanctions have hurt its ability to import basic staples for its 74 million people. The difficulty paying for urgent import needs has contributed to sharp rises in the prices of basic foodstuffs, causing hardship for Iranians with just weeks to go before an election seen as a referendum on President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's economic policies. Full Story
By: Editors of The Casey Report - 16 February, 2012
President Obama promised to turn around the floundering economy that he inherited from his predecessor. He promised jobs. He promised transparency. Not only did he not deliver on those campaign promises, he has led the nation further into the abyss on all counts. Today we are less prosperous, deeper in debt, and enjoy fewer liberties than when Obama first stepped into the Oval Office. His own party is losing faith in the messiah. Full Story
In December, I made public an article discussing the short position in the big silver ETF, SLV. At that time, the short position in SLV shares was in excess of 25 million shares and would run up to 26.6 million shares by mid-January. I hold that the shorting of shares in SLV is both fraudulent to shareholders of SLV and is manipulative to the price of silver. That’s because shorted shares of SLV do not result in physical silver being deposited into the Trust and leave the Trust, effectively, with shares not backed by metal to the extent of the short interest. Full Story
"No gold, no wedding," is a saying in India, indicating the importance of gold to Indian culture and tradition. Byron Pitts reports on India's obsession with gold. Full Story
While the gold stocks have enjoyed a decent recovery, they have certainly lagged the broad market which has almost broken out to new highs. Should you be worried that a major shift is in place? Hardly. The fact is the broad market is in the latter stages of its a cyclical bull while gold stocks just completed a major bottom. Full Story
China cannot risk a severe economic slowdown. There are already over 30 million Chinese who have lost their jobs, left the coastal cities, and are moving back to the countryside. Moreover, during times of economic turmoil, civil unrest grows. Since 2006, China has averaged 90,000+ "mass incidents" (riots and protests) per year. In 1993, during the boom years, this number was less than 10,000. Full Story
By: The Gold Report and Roger Wiegand - 16 February, 2012
Roger Wiegand, editor of Trader Tracks, says cycles will bring gold and silver higher in the first half of 2012: gold up to $2,050/oz and silver up to $44/oz or even $50/oz. In this exclusive Gold Report interview, he says he sees plenty of opportunities for volatility given the political and economic situation in the U.S. and the EU. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman and Erich Simon - 16 February, 2012
Erich Simon has contributed some appropriately grim essays in the past. In the commentary below, he surveys the economic landscape as America’s descent into bankruptcy picks up speed. There will be no escaping the ravages of Depression, he says, even for those who have piled up gold against events that may lie beyond imagining. RA Full Story
Gold imports to India, slumped 44% to 157 tonnes in the December quarter on a record high prices but total imports in 2011 edged up 1.1% on higher purchases in the first half of the year, the World Gold Council (WGC) said. Full Story
By: Doug Casey and Louis James - 15 February, 2012
US-Iranian saber-rattling or impending shoot-out? In his usual, candid manner, contrarian investor Doug Casey talks about why he believes it's serious this time… why the US is the greatest threat to peace today… why Iran might move towards a gold standard… and what smart investors should do. Full Story
It is once again a great pleasure to address the attendees at this conference following the GATA Workshop I participated in this morning. I'd like to thank Bill Murphy for his kind introduction. As many of you may know, Bill and I have become great friends as the result of our mutual struggles in the gold and silver markets over the past 13 years. That struggle has simultaneously represented the most exhilarating and the most frustrating experience in my nearly 49 years in the investment business. Full Story
SO HOW MUCH quantitative easing is enough quantitative easing? Japan tipped into depression almost 20 years before everyone else, but it got no respect for blazing the trail. Its zero-rate policy also got started more than seven years before the US or Britain's. But again it was all "too little, too late" according to Western observers. Full Story
By: The Gold Report and Sascha Opel - 15 February, 2012
Sascha Opel, publisher of one of Germany's most popular commodity newsletters, looks at the economy with rose-colored glasses. He sees the end of the Euro crisis and sees Asian growth as the engine pulling the world out of its economic malaise. He finds the path to golden returns in gold and silver companies likely to be taken over in this exclusive interview with The Gold Report. Full Story
Today, central bankers, the mandarins of capitalism, are in disarray. Their attempts to contain capitalism’s current crisis increasingly resemble the tactics of a defeated army in retreat. Like Napoleon and Hitler’s respective “Moscow moments”, the 21st century economic crisis has brought to an end the bankers’ spectacular 300 year run at the table of power and wealth. Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 15 February, 2012
By decree, by the privately owned Federal Reserve, zero interest rates are here to stay. You do not get to borrow at those rates, only the member banks do. In the latest currency swap (loan) from the Fed to the ECB, European Central Bank, as we noted in previous issues over the last two months, that Europe has been forced to join the Anglo-American system. The system of zero interest rates and the continual creation of money and credit. Due to the Fed’s ability to create endless supplies of money and credit it eventually took over the control of ECB and European monetary policy. Full Story
Is the current crisis likely to be resolved in the miraculous fashion of the 1980s? Everybody must draw their own conclusion, based on their assessment of the outlook as well as their own situation and risk tolerance. A total optimist would have zero exposure to gold, a total pessimist a whole lot, and those unsure a small percentage as insurance. I always remember the lesson from my wise colleague... gold is a means to reliably store our wealth, and therefore a means to survival. Full Story
Let's dial in the ratio of the HUI Gold Bugs index vs. the S&P 500 that we have been reviewing from a monthly 'big picture' perspective. This weekly chart is also a big picture, but it adds the 250 week moving average and weekly MACD, along with its slower brother, TRIX, for more definition. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 15 February, 2012
Chalk up a frustrating day for traders who came to their monitors yesterday with nothing in their quivers save Hidden Pivots and a winning attitude. There are days when our technical runes warn us not to expect much in the way of opportunity, and yesterday was just such a day. We should have known as much before we let the stock market put us in a trance during the second half of what was to become a tediously meaningless session. Full Story
The Indian rupee has appreciated 6.95% against the US dollar this year and looks headed for more gains as long as it trades below 50.60. There is even speculation that the rupee may gain to 44.00 against the US dollar in the next twelve months. We remain cautiously optimistic on the rupee front. Full Story
By: Dr. Ron Paul, U.S. Congressman - 14 February, 2012
Okay. So, glad you’re back with us at GoldSeek.com Radio for another Gold Nugget segment. Today’s special guest, Congressman Dr. Ron Paul. Dr. Ron Paul wants to take back power from the government and return it to its rightful owners, we the people. He joins me to discuss the domestic economy and the precious metals markets. Welcome back, Dr. Paul. Full Story
Saudi Arabia’s top power brokers recently claimed they would not allow oil to trade over $100. Click here now to view the oil price trading above $100 this morning. The power brokers have already failed. How big their failure will become remains to be seen, but things don’t look good for the oil bears. When any major market might be about to embark on a strong rally or decline there are both bullish and bearish factors in play. The market’s direction is ultimately determined by liquidity flows. Full Story
Technical analysis is replete with analytic tools, techniques and systems all designed to provide insight into the future price movement for a traded security. The technician relies on price and volume history to predict future outcomes. Can looking at the past be a reliable guide to divining the future? Can anyone drive a car by looking only at the review mirror? Amazingly, in trading securities, the answer is yes. Full Story
By: Marin Katusa, Chief Energy Investment Strategist, Casey Research - 14 February, 2012
The Fukushima disaster reminded us all of the dangers inherent in uranium-fueled nuclear reactors. Fresh news yesterday about Tepco's continued struggle to contain and cool the fuel rods highlights just how energetic uranium fission reactions are and how challenging to control. Of course, that level of energy is exactly why we use nuclear energy – it is incredibly efficient as a source of power, and it creates very few emissions and carries a laudable safety record to boot. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 14 February, 2012
In our 11th January 2012 commentary we argued that a certain 'technical analyst' was wrong to extrapolate gold's recent price action into a forecast of imminent deflation. We did so by pointing out that a) the year-over-year (YOY) rate of growth in US True Money Supply (TMS) was about 14% at the time, b) December-2011 was the 36th consecutive month in which the YOY rate of TMS growth was 10% or more, and c) if the YOY rate of TMS growth remained above 10% for two more months then it would be the longest period of double-digit money-supply growth in US history. That is, we pointed out that far from being in 'danger' of experiencing a serious bout of deflation, the US was in the midst of a record-breaking period of monetary inflation. Full Story
There is a study published by the Credit Suisse and the London Business School that says that gold prices have been too volatile to play a reliable role as a hedge against inflation over the past 112 years. While inflation does not reduce gold's real value, it has no yield or income flow and the precious metal has given a far lower long-term return than equities in the period since 1900, or 120 years, says the study. Generally, the analysis is conducted based on periods when gold was money and where it was not and we believe that these two should not be mixed. Full Story
At the beginning of last week, we mentioned that gold was still in the up channel, but something to watch for is gold diverging out of the channel and that this could signal the start of a correction. Thursday and Friday’s price action last week is concerning for short term trading going into this coming week because gold is no longer in the strong up channel that has been in place for the last six weeks. We mentioned that gold was bumping up against resistance at $1750 and that a reversal could be in the making. Gold most likely will continue its correction and sideways pattern during the early part of this coming week. Full Story
My worst trading performance has been when I have gone short. I have made big money (like when I was leveraged short during the fall of 2008 as documented here and here), but I have also lost large amounts of money fighting the hoards of determined bulltards still stuck in last century's paradigms. The tsunami of paper depreciation unleashed upon us over the past decade makes shorting any market much more hazardous than being long. Trust me, I have learned my lesson in this regard the hard way. Full Story
By: The Gold Report and Michael Ballanger - 14 February, 2012
The resource markets have weathered some death defying ups and downs lately. But Michael Ballanger, senior investment advisor with Toronto-based Union Securities, is looking for a renewed period of growth in the TSX Venture Composite Index. Is it too soon to see such a heady rebound? In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, Ballanger makes his case for history repeating itself. Full Story
"YOU'VE lost control – Bank of England takes over," says the Bank of England's cute little game for school-kids if you let the hot-air balloon you control crash into the ground, rather than happily floating it around the 2.0% annual inflation target. Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital - 13 February, 2012
Advocates of government stimulus are running victory laps on recent developments that appear to vindicate their strategy. In particular, Paul Krugman compares the sluggish growth in Europe to the somewhat-less-sluggish growth in the US to prove that stimulus was more effective than austerity. Other economists are using government inflation measures to defend Fed Chairman Bernanke's easy-money policy. The only problem is, they're calling the race before the finish line is even in sight. Full Story
This gigantic flood of extremely inexpensive high-powered money does have a major impact, not in the real economy, but in the liquid investment markets. Free money sets a very low hurdle for a short-term investment and as long as the transaction has decent liquidity, why not do the trade. As a result, almost every equity, commodity, and credit market is moving higher. Full Story
Can SPX eventually surmount resistance at 1360 (pending a routine correction to 1260?) and make it to 1500 by the end of ‘i12’ [short for our new tag line 'inflationary 2012']. What about a measured 1600? Let’s manage current resistance and the probability of oncoming correction first, before we think about crazy (and by the way, quite doable) upside targets. But there they are. Full Story
As the U.S. national debt continues its ascent to the heavens with the blessings of leading economists, the massive tower of IOUs sways to and fro at the mercy of political currents. Will Asians continue to buy the debt? Will the Fed be pressured to monetize more of it? Will the Fed say “Enough!” and let interest rates soar? Will the government, with its dedication to endless war and cheap money, take over the task of obliterating the dollar so it can fulfill the grandiose dreams of the political class? Or will people finally say “Enough!” and remove the government from monetary affairs altogether? Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 13 February, 2012
Americans can take comfort in the likelihood that the showdown between mortgage lenders and homeowners will not resemble Greece’s battle-to-the-death with its creditors. In the U.S., the banks are slowly losing ground to a populist, election-year tide that eventually will force lenders to accept a moratorium on mortgage debt for tens of millions of homeowners. In the rapidly escalating legal battle to bring this about, last week’s $25 billion settlement between the banks and the U.S. did not settle much of anything, since the banks in theory can still be sued into oblivion by aggrieved homeowners. Full Story
Headline news & the Market Weatherman Report. Spotlight Stock Picks. Host Chris Waltzek & Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster discussion and answer listener's questions. GUESTS: Louis Navellier, The Little Book That Makes You Rich John Rubino, The Coming Collapse of the Dollar Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 12 February, 2012
In Part I of this article we looked at the growing trend of governments moving their gold into their own home vaults to remove the influence and potential seizure of their gold when political policies clash with the country where the holding central bank was situated. We covered the dangers of holding gold at home and the difference in attitude individual’s should have towards the problem of where and how to hold gold. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 12 February, 2012
The Agence France-Presse story from Hanoi appended here demonstrates a few things not plainly understood by the financial news media and even economists in the West: 1) Gold is money, and sometimes much better money than governments offer. 2) Because of that, governments seek to control gold and its price. 3) A negative real rate of interest -- what in the West is starting to be called "financial repression" -- pushes people out of government currencies and into gold. Full Story
To say that complacency has reigned in the last few months is an understatement. Volatility as measured by the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has fallen 60% since October and 20% since the start of 2012. To put into context just how much volatility has fallen since the latest rally kicked off in October, the 10-year chart of the S&P 100 Volatility Index (VXO) is shown below. The VXO is an excellent frame of reference for the absence of widespread fear in this market in recent months. As you can see, volatility is approaching historically low levels not seen since before the credit crisis began. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 12 February, 2012
If all these gold standards are indeed crazy ideas, what can be said of the current international monetary system, in which only one country issues the world reserve currency, a boom-bust cycle is injected into most economies, the world is expropriated through the reserve currency-issuing country's chronic trade deficits, big and parasitic financial institutions are enriched and rescued by governments at the expense of the working class, and more and more government intervention is required to prevent markets from manifesting themselves and restoring some democracy and transparency to the planet? Full Story
The world’s most successful investor Warren Buffett has launched a powerful attack on gold as an investment class saying that the precious metal is a self-inflating bubble and that investors will eventually be faced with a price crash. In an article in Forbes magazine the Sage of Omaha warned: ‘Bubbles blown large enough inevitably pop, and then the old proverb is confirmed once again: “What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end”.’ Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 12 February, 2012
2012 is going to be a difficult year, but not as dreadful as anticipated. The neutralization process, as usual, we covered over by the availability of money and credit. We have already seen that via Fed $1 trillion loans to the ECB and the admission by the Fed that QE 3 is on the way. In Europe banks have borrowed $3.2 trillion and they find they will need $1 trillion more. These borrowings are more than troubling and indicate that there are 523 banks in Europe in serious trouble. Full Story
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors - 12 February, 2012
2012 will be the 11th time in my short life that I will be able to participate in the choosing of a president of the United States. While it may just be me, it seems like each and every election is cast as the most important election of our time and a defining moment for the American Experiment. The future of the Republic was being weighed in the balance, and only the proper outcome (which would of course be the election of the candidate you supported) would assure its survival. This week we will continue our meditations on the economic choices that confront the world, this time focusing on the US. Full Story
By: Jeff Berwick, The Dollar Vigilante - 12 February, 2012
There are countless reasons why leaving the country that purports to own you has advantages. For one, whenever I return to my personal home country of Canada - never for pleasure, only for business – I will usually run across a typically socialist Canadian who will take great offence to my worldview and will tell me, “If you don’t like it, leave!” Nothing makes me happier than to tell them, “I did… and I’m so much happier now.” Full Story
It was another incredibly strong week for the US markets up until Friday when more confusion emerged out of Greece and US markets took a hit but still remain strong as many leading stocks were still up nicely for the day and that includes our swing trading positions. Full Story
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