By: Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital, Inc. - 17 December, 2010
There is an old adage on Wall Street: no one rings a bell to signal a market top or bottom. Yet, I have found that bells do ring; it's just that few people know exactly what sound to listen for. Full Story
As the U.S. dollar takes a nosedive and precious metals gain more and more attention from individual investors, the number of questions and concerns is increasing as well. The following reader email addressed to Casey Research is representative of so many inquiries that we decided to provide an in-depth response that may prove instructional to others as well. Full Story
The fundamentals behind the gold trade are generally understood on a very superficial level. $3000 gold will have very little to do with inflation. It will have little to do with the economy being “bad”- we have had recessions with collapsing gold prices. In many ways we are talking about something far more menacing. We are talking about capital running for cover. We are talking about unprecedented skepticism towards government. We are talking about the long overdue self-destruction of a system that magnifies the folly of man. In essence, we are talking about a profound paradigm shift. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence LLC - 17 December, 2010
Silver has been a rock-star in recent months, rocketing higher to dazzling gains. After such a blistering near-vertical ascent, technicians understandably fear this metal has become wildly overbought. Nevertheless, an alternative perspective on silver’s recent levels counters its extreme technicals. Compared to gold, its primary driver, silver actually looks reasonably-priced today. Full Story
Gold has gained 26% this year, putting it on track for its third double-digit gain of the last four years. To chart gold’s price movements since 2000 take a piece of paper and draw an outline of an imaginary mountain slope (think Everest) with a few footholds to rest on the steep way up. There is still a long way up before you can plant the flag at the top. Full Story
In the Medium and Long Run, we see the aforementioned Equities Bearish Factors overwhelming the Bullish Ones, which will have Severe Negative Consequences for Equities-in-General and for Commodities which are in Elastic Demand. Full Story
By: Louis James and Doug Casey - 17 December, 2010
When we left our intrepid heroes last week, Doug was saying, "Now we have new economics – a house of cards built on quicksand. The whole corrupt system is doomed. But good riddance, actually…" We now return for another action-packed episode of Conversations With Casey… Full Story
Unfortunately, due to millions of years of evolution, human beings make absolutely terrible investors. It appears that most investors seem to have a good memory for very long term trends and very short term trends but for some reason they seem to forget about the intermediate term trends. As a result of this they lose money! Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 17 December, 2010
Rickards is a scholar and lawyer and described himself to the Johns Hopkins conference as a refugee from the bond market who converted to gold when he perceived how haywire things were going in the world financial system. (He got an especially close look as counsel to Long-Term Capital Management when it collapsed in 1998.) Full Story
Has the latest pullback in precious metals and related stocks given you a sickening feeling in the pit of your stomach? If so, then consider rebalancing – because that sinking feeling is a good signal that you are probably overinvested in the sector. I’ll have more on that topic in a moment, but first to the question of where to invest, if not in precious metals and resource stocks? That is a question we get quite often. Full Story
As noted in the Goldsmiths CLXVIII, the Rothschild plan to make money and rule the world, as described in Understanding Money and War XIV (at www.analysis-news.com), envisions that the Rothschild banking cabal will use its powers over nations to bring on periods of national prosperity and inflation and then alternating periodic periods of contraction, deflation and depression. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 17 December, 2010
I was cowering inside the Mogambo Bunker Of Fear (MBOF) in preparation for the release of the news from the Federal Reserve about how much credit those treacherous bastards created last week, expecting it to be a Big Whopping Bunch (BWB) since they have already announced that they were going to create an astounding $600 billion in the next six months... Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 17 December, 2010
Although we wish Federal prosecutors well in their efforts to root out insider trading, we won’t be too terribly surprised if the five alleged insiders charged Thursday in a high-profile case beat the rap. It’s like trying to root out corruption in places like Kazakhstan or Louisiana, where graft is a way of life. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 16 December, 2010
The COT reports which we look at each week provide a breakdown of each Tuesday's open interest for markets in which 20 or more traders hold positions equal to or above the reporting levels established by the CFTC. The weekly reports for Futures-and-Options-Combined Commitments of Traders are released every Friday at 3:30 p.m. Eastern time. The short report shows open interest separately by reportable and Non-reportable positions. For reportable positions, additional data is provided for commercial and non-commercial holdings, spreading, changes from the previous report. Full Story
By: John Browne, Senior Market Strategist, Euro Pacific Capital - 16 December, 2010
Pre-holiday cheer is certainly evident in the financial markets. The overwhelming consensus is that the Congressional agreement to not raise taxes while extending hundreds of billions in new stimulus will finally allow the recovery to take hold. The good feelings are underscored by less-than-awful employment reports and modest slowdowns in foreclosures. Another point of optimism is the continued buoyancy of the US dollar, which has weakened over the past few months, but has not collapsed. Full Story
Unfortunately for us all - Moody's (once again) has it backwards. As we will simply illustrate herein, the counterintuitive reality is that the greater the deficit - and the higher the US debt relative to the economy - the higher the long term credit quality of currently outstanding US Treasury bonds. The more irresponsible the politicians - the lower the percentage of the future economy that will be represented by current long-term US government debt. Full Story
Silver market experts have long pointed to the massive short position held by several major banks as the prime reason for the metal being underpriced and the only commodity still trading below its all-time high of thirty years ago. Full Story
By: Jeff Clark and John Hathaway - 16 December, 2010
When John Hathaway spoke at the Casey’s Gold and Resource Summit in October, many of the audience came away feeling like they were listening to Doug Casey, with his contrarian views, bold statements, and laying much of the blame for our current problems at the feet of government. Read what John, a seasoned investment pro and manager of the famously successful $1.4 billion Tocqueville Gold Fund, has to say about gold, precious metals stocks, and the future of the U.S. dollar. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 16 December, 2010
There are lots of sad stories about how so many people have mortgages larger than their houses are worth, now that their houses have gone down in value with the general decline in housing prices, and more and more people are finding themselves increasingly in this same, sad situation of having to pay a lot of money for something that is not worth it. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 16 December, 2010
Bullion prices seem likely to remain under pressure for the rest of the year now that Moody’s has trained its water hose on…Spain! Yesterday, the ratings firm dithered its way into the headlines with a threat to downgrade Iberian debt. Presumably, this was done at the behest of Geithner, Bernanke & Friends. Full Story
The Chinese really must think the American strategy and behavior to be braindead and self-destructive. The US helped them assemble a manufacturing industry, replaced US income with debt, and finally faces the Grim Reaper in a national episode of systemic failure. The US leadership is as stupid and mindless as the population is driven by compulsive consumption over the cliff, as the nation faces ruin. The Jackass warning has been for five years that the Chinese experiment would end in tragedy, and that when a preponderance of USTreasury debt is owned by foreigners, especially a single foreign nation, the Untied States will lose its sovereignty. Full Story
In our previous essay we've covered the situation on the gold market, however since rallies (and declines) often correspond to the rallies (and declines) in the mining stocks, this time we will focus on the latter and check if we can spot any divergences or confirmations. Full Story
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors - 15 December, 2010
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I seem to remember that one of the reasons for QE2 was to lower rates on the longer end of the US yield curve. Clearly, that has not happened? Today we look at come of the unintended consequences of monetary policy, turn our eyes briefly to consumer debt, and wonder about deflating incomes. There are a lot of very interesting things to cover. Full Story
By: Jerry Western and Lorimer Wilson - 15 December, 2010
Those in the U.S. power structure know what the plan is should the U.S. dollar fail. They are not admitting publically that there is even the remotest chance that it could happen but, rest assured, there is a plan. There is always a plan. To paraphrase Franklin Roosevelt, nothing happens by chance in government, so don’t be caught up in such a ‘surprise’ event - whatever it may be and whenever it occurs. Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 15 December, 2010
The experts’ keep telling us how great shopping is this Christmas Season when only 17% of shoppers are using credit cards. That is a drop of 50% from last year, and the lowest usage in 27 years. We guess buyers have unloaded the cookie jar and pulled their savings from under the mattress. The consumer sentiment index has risen 2.6, but we will wait to see if attitudes turn into sales. Home buying intentions continue to fall as interest rates hit 4.66% for a 30-year fixed mortgage this past week, putting a further damper on future sales. Full Story
In 2008, America suffered a massive economic heart attack. Its doctors, thought to be the world’s best, believed the US to be in good health, having recovered from a similar though smaller crisis in 2000. But America hadn’t recovered. In fact, the Fed’s palliative for the 2000 crisis, i.e. lower interest rates, soon created an even larger crisis, i.e. the 2002-2006 US housing bubble whose collapse caused global credit markets to contract and investment banks to fall, necessitating government intervention on such a massive scale it led to today’s sovereign debt crisis as private losses were absorbed onto public balance sheets; and, now, in 2010, the crisis continues to fester and spread. Full Story
Analysts and pundits provide various reasons for the bull market in Gold. This includes emerging market demand, low interest rates, money printing, central bank accumulation, central bank policies and falling gold production. These are all good reason but there is one reason which stands apart and will drive precious metals to amazing heights. It is the impending sovereign debt default of the west, led by the great USA. Full Story
I've noted before that at intermediate turning points we will usually see breadth diverge from price. The McClellan oscillator is now showing a large negative divergence and has moved back below zero despite the market making new highs. Full Story
By: Steven Saville, Speculative Investor - 15 December, 2010
Our view is, and has always been, that the rapid economic growth occurring in countries such as China and India is NOT the primary driver of the long-term bull market in commodities that is often referred to as the "commodity supercycle". Instead, we see the bull market as mostly an effect of inflation, where inflation is defined as an expansion of the money supply. One of the consequences of inflation is a reduction in the value of money relative to some of the things that money can buy. Full Story
Governments fund themselves through three ways. They can either - tax, borrow or inflate. The last option is preferred as it is the method least likely to anger the public. However, inflation is associated with large-scale wars and great social and economic upheavals. Voltaire is quoted as saying that, "Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value - zero." Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 15 December, 2010
I was idly reading The Economist magazine instead of working, or instead of taking a nap, when I saw their headline “The Mortgage Parallel,” which was kind of intriguing to me, and I was curious to see what they thought was, you know, a good parallel to a mortgage. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 15 December, 2010
Treasury Bonds got savaged yesterday, but more-devastating carnage lies just ahead if our analysis from last week ago proves correct. Wall Street, for its part, seems to view the impending firestorm as though it were a Yule log. The Dow Industrials rose nearly 50 points on light volume, never even dipping into negative territory. We’ve seen divers boldly ascend a 70-foot tower and jump into a big wet sponge, but the stock market seems positively arrogant about the dive it will inevitably take onto concrete. Full Story
In the midst of any long-term trend, like the secular bull market for metals we’re in now, there will be trends within the trends. You could think of them as being like eddies, whorls, and side-channels in a great torrent. We see one such developing that could benefit junior gold stock investors in the near- to mid-term. Full Story
For the duration of what I estimate to be a 10 year economic slowdown (we are entering year 4), you will hear countless experts proclaim that the economy has recovered. Economic recovery evangelists were temporarily silenced earlier in the year, but they have now come out in force. In today’s FOMC statement, the Fed actually had the chutzpah to say: “The economic recovery is continuing, though at a rate that has been insufficient to bring down unemployment”. That the Fed can continually get away with saying such asinine comments this far into the recession is very surprising. Full Story
Gold war update from the front lines: The Gold Community retook $1400 last night. Silver is close to retaking $30. I won the battle as to whether gold would take out $1424 on the upside or $1315 on the downside. Most thought $1315 would fall. It didn`t. Gold soared to $1430 basis dec futures and many gold stocks continue to exhibit violent upsurges. Full Story
In an innovative TV commercial for Barclays Bank, a man walks down on Wall Street but discovers that nearly everything is a fake movie set. The huge investment houses and international banks are all made of paintings on cloth or Styrofoam while the people are mannequins. The nightmare ended with the man finding one real bank which is Barclays Bank. Full Story
The Obama administration’s inability to obtain an improved tax revenue for federal coffers is the latest farce in the comic American tragedy unfolding before our very eyes. This government appears incapable of understanding that printing increasing amounts of currency while realizing deteriorating tax revenues and generally lethargic economic conditions is the direct path toward default. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 14 December, 2010
As you read with delight tonight's Financial Times story about the difficulty in which J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. apparently has found itself with silver (http://www.gata.org/node/9419), it may be worth remembering the remark variously attributed to those most cynical statesmen Metternich and Talleyrand during the Congress of Vienna, which reorganized Europe in 1815. Told by an aide that the Russian ambassador had just died, Metternich -- or Talleyrand -- supposedly responded: "I wonder what his motive was." Full Story
The alternative financial commentators are pretty battle weary after more than three years of gloom and doom. But after a long period of lurching from one economic crisis to another there is little to suggest that 2011 will be any different, somewhat on the contrary in fact or fiction. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 14 December, 2010
This week’s winner of the coveted Mogambo Bluster And Incompetence Award (MBAIA) goes to Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund. I will skip the part where I heap disdain on the IMF and say rude things like how I think that the IMF is a worthless bunch of incompetent, self-serving, socialist scumbags. Full Story
‘Those were the days’ is a well known but now little used catchphrase that is employed in describing ‘better times’, usually heartfelt and sentimental for the individual(s), and usually occurring in better economic times. And at one point or another in a person’s life the concept of better days – perhaps even glory days – as in one’s youth, can be particularly poignant, especially if the economy, even if it’s only yours, hits the skids. Full Story
By: Dr. Ron Paul, U.S. Congressman - 13 December, 2010
Since the announcement last week that I will chair the congressional subcommittee that oversees the Federal Reserve, the media response has been overwhelming. The groundswell of opposition to Fed actions among ordinary citizens is reflected not only in the rhetoric coming out of Capitol Hill, but also in the tremendous interest shown by the financial press. The demand for transparency is growing, whether the political and financial establishment likes it or not. The Fed is losing its vaunted status as an institution that somehow is above politics and public scrutiny. Fed transparency will be the cornerstone of my efforts as subcommittee chairman. Full Story
Despite the fact that the S&P is up over 80% in the last 21 months, US financial firms are currently tripping over each other in their zeal to raise their S&P 500 and GDP targets for 2011. JPMorgan's chief US equities strategist, Thomas Lee, came out on December 3rd with a target of 1425 on the S&P for 2011, which would be a 15 percent gain. Barclays Capital last Thursday released a 1420 estimate. Not to be outdone, Goldman Sachs also recently released its forecast, and it sees a more-than-20 percent increase next year, to 1450. Meanwhile, PIMCO's idea of a "new normal" has translated into a 2011 GDP forecast raised from 2-2.5% to 3-3.5% due to "massive" government stimulus. Full Story
The science which today is called economics was originally called political economy, meaning that it was a combination of politics and economics. This has always seemed a little strange to me. Economics is the science of creating wealth. We cannot say that politics is the science of destroying wealth (although sometimes it seems that way). However, we can say that improper politics is the science of destroying or stealing wealth and proper politics is the science of safeguarding the right of property. Full Story
The inflation versus deflation debate has raged for years but since the credit crisis the debate has become highly politicized. If the credit crisis taught us anything it is that the risk of deflation far outweighs that of inflation. Yet there is an entrenched view emerging in political circles that is actively opposed to the government’s attempts at re-inflating the economy following the deflationary collapse of 2008. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman and Cameron Fitzgerald - 13 December, 2010
It’s been a while since we heard from Cam Fitzgerald, an occasional contributor to Rick’s Picks, but with the essay below he returns to these pages with both guns blazing, argumentatively speaking. Cam sees a world on the brink of financial, economic and political disaster. If the global economy and trade were to collapse – hardly a longshot bet at this point –Cam notes that there is no “Plan B.” We had better come up with one soon, he says, or we could all wind up wallowing in feudal darkness for decades. Full Story
Still a potential head and shoulder pattern or not? See the short term analysis below. With all that’s happening in the world one would expect gold to go through the roof. It may still do so, in fact I believe it will, but the question is will it do so NOW or sometime in the future? Full Story
1st Hour: Headline news & the Market Weatherman Report. Spotlight Stock Picks. Host Chris Waltzek & Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster discussion and answer listener's questions. 2nd Hour: Harry S. Dent Jr. Monty Guild, Guild Investment Management Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 12 December, 2010
We are all used to reading that gold rose because the dollar fell or that gold fell, because the dollar rose. The picture conjured up is one of traders racing in to actually buy or sell gold as they watch the exchange rate move. When U.S. Treasury yields rose this week, the dollar strengthened slightly and the gold price dropped. When we watched this happen it seem to happen immediately and precisely and we were led to believe that much more was happening than met the eye. After all if gold moves in the opposite direction to the U.S. dollar, this implies that it is moving not just with but almost riveted to the euro. What’s the story behind this? Full Story
The Long Wave Dynamics approach to Fibonacci drill-down price grids in any market index such as the S&P 500 and European S&P 100 generates extraordinary actionable market intelligence for investors and traders. Creation of the drill-down Fibonacci grid approach to market analysis is the result of decades of market cycle research and studying the market timing of a number of cycle masters. The goal was a formula timing plan for buying low and selling high based on cycles that works for both investors and traders. Full Story
You have to wonder whether gold and silver are about to enter a final mania stage of their long bull run when the largest bank in the Middle East comes up with a gold deposit scheme to tempt investors. Full Story
For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. The inevitable reaction to the deep financial fraud in our society will be a 100% gold and silver reserve financial system. This means gold at something like one ounce per one year's labor, and silver at something like one ounce per one month's labor. This would not have even been possible until quite recently, after all, this means paying for a loaf of bread with a milligram of gold or ten milligrams of silver. Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 12 December, 2010
Believe it or not the euro zone and European Union crisis is still in the formative stages. The bailout packages arranged for Greece and Ireland are not to bail out those two countries, but to bail out the European banks that lent to them and bought their bonds when it was imprudent to do so. They knew, because they control the governments that the public of the solvent governments would bail them out. Thus, the governments of Ireland and Greece with Portugal and Spain to follow will be showered with an Anglo-American style bailout. As you know $1 trillion won’t be enough to make the banks happy, so $3 trillion will be needed. Full Story
For many years now this column has been periodically dedicated to the analysis of economic reports, and the exposure of ‘fudging’ that takes place in most macroeconomic data series. Immediately upon looking at this morning’s trade data it seemed that, once again, something was amiss. It probably jumped out at me because I had just finished a crude oil analysis report for December’s Centsible Investor and the information was still fresh in my mind. However, I am quite sure that I am not the only one who noticed this. Full Story
Here at Martenson Central, we are endlessly keeping a close eye out for the emergence of deflation, defined here as the purchasing power of the dollar going up. Technically, inflation and deflation are terms that indicate a particular combination of money surplus or deficit (respectively), demand for money (of which velocity is but one measure), and demand for various goods and services (which themselves may be in abundance or short supply). Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 12 December, 2010
I always like the name Minyanville because it sounds so soothing, and it makes me think of some peaceful, beautiful little town of my childhood dreams, where everything is always nice and everybody is happy, where wishes come true for good little boys, and there are no angry fathers literally throwing you out of his stupid house and yelling after you, “And stay away from my daughter, you worthless piece of teenaged hoodlum trash!” Full Story
The week past was absolutely perfect for US markets in general as they consolidated the huge gains from the week before. The S&P traded in a narrow range at an important horizontal level and is resting. My thinking and analysis tells me we are ready for another large move higher into the end of the year. Full Story
The content on this site is protected
by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of GoldSeek.com
and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any
information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on GoldSeek.com.
This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other
features found on the site. Please contact
us for any further information.
Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer
The views contained here may not represent the views of GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC, its affiliates or advertisers. GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy
or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics,
analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction
and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained
on or within this website, without the express written consent of GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC,
is strictly prohibited. In no event shall GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC or its affiliates be
liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon
the information provided herein.
